The University Community Next Generation Innovation Project

Gig.U

Blair LevinExecutive Director, Gig.U

Presentation TTI/Vanguard December 6, 2011

Big Broadband:Changing the Equation

to Accelerate Innovation

Problem

How do we accelerate the arrival of the next generation of broadband networks and services?

Spoiler Alert: The Answer

C + O < (r)R + EB

Why is it important?

Technological LeadershipCreates ecosystem of knowledge for designing, building and operating networks and devices

Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth

Accelerated pace of development means less time to react – so the slow lose out

Incr

emen

tal V

alue

Add

Winner

Loser

Electricity

Telephone

Internet

Mobile telephone

Invention Ubiquity

highvalue

add

mediumvalue add

lowvalue add

INNOVATION

Act now

Potentialfor

competitiveadvantage

Act later

Television

Time

Early action leads to leadership

Technological Leadership

Key to accelerating innovations and economic growth Increases the “adjacent possible” for every sector

Why is it important?

What Drives Productivity?

Technological change and other factors

ImprovedLabor Quality

Capital Investment

Data: US Bureau of Labor Statistics

Contribution to Long-term Productivity Growth

52%

37%

11%

Lessons in Innovation: Bring everything to the table

In April 1970, a liquid oxygen tank on the Apollo 13 space craft exploded. Among other problems, Mission Control must find a way to filter the air for the crew on their return trip. They assemble the crew’s available resources and built a contraption called the “mailbox.” The crew replicated this fix on board and arrived home safely.

Lessons in Innovation: Enable the adjacent possible

Gutenberg used a wine press for his

printing press.

Engineers used analog

vacuum tubes to make digital computers.

NeoNurture incubators are made from auto

parts.

Every talk at this conference is a function of someone figuring out a new adjacent possible….

Where does innovation take place?

The biggest leaps in growth are driven by meta-ideas…

Improving the exchange of information improves the conditions for innovation.

How to apply the lessons of innovation?

In the last 2 decades, three revolutions have transformed knowledge exchange:

Broadband is our common collaborative platform

Improvements in each element of the ecosystem drive improvements in others in a virtuous cycle.

Broadband Ecosystem

Broadband is our common collaborative platform

Broadband Ecosystem

If devices need to improve 100x in 10 years, what do the networks need to do?

If devices need to improve 100x in 10 years, what do the networks need to do?

If devices get smaller, what does that do to the demands on networks?

If we replace matter with software, what does that do to demands on the network?

Broadband; the first medium whose fundamental value is collaboration

Big data requires big pipes to enable real time collaboration

But we can see the bottlenecks ahead…

“DNA Sequencing Caught in Deluge of Data”By Andrew Pollack, November 30, 2011

BGI, based in China, is the world’s largest genomics research institute, with 167 DNA sequencers producing the equivalent of 2,000 human genomes a day.

BGI churns out so much data that it often cannot transmit its results to clients or collaborators over the Internet or other communications lines because that would take weeks. Instead, it sends computer disks containing the data, via FedEx.

What are barriers to it happening quickly?

• Chicken and egg economics• In the United States, competitive economics• Everywhere, the wrong idea about government policy

affecting the deployment of networks

Chicken and Egg Economics

C + O > (r)R + EB

C – Capital ExpendituresO– Operating Expendituresr – RiskR- RevenuesEB- Ecosystem Benefits (Benefits that drive increased revenues outside the communities where the new or incremental investments are made.)

Need critical mass of big pipes to drive big apps to drive demand for big pipes, but until then, this math is a wall:Need critical mass of big pipes to drive big apps to drive demand for big pipes, but until then, this math is a wall:

Worse in United States

C + O > (r)(.5)R + EB

R- Revenues for Underlying Infrastructure Spilt between Two Facilities, Creating Greater Risk for Long-Term Financing

Diffusion Lag and the problem of yesterday’s logic

Time after introduction

Org

aniz

ation

s ad

optin

g

Sunk costs: costs of reengineering factories, industries.

Sunk thinking: imagined costs of reimagining prevailing logic.

Diffusion of Innovations

Policy Problem: Winning the Past

How do we fundamentally view the public stake in communications networks and society?

Simple

Simple

Deployment

Provide subsidy

Equal network everywhere

Rural

Wire line telephone

Lower prices in high cost areas

Complex

Complex

Use

Deliver high performance service

Right network for use case

All

Consumer / use determined

Higher economic, social value

Message

Politics

Imperative

Mechanism

Focus

Population Beneficiary

Network Beneficiary

Prime Purpose

High Performance Knowledge ExchangeConnecting America

How would spending priorities for Universal Service change?

Directional change as indicated by consumer behavior

Decrease

Increase

Increase

Increase

Actual change

Increase

Decrease

No change

No change, though likely to decrease

Support for:

Wireline to rural homes

Wireless for rural communities

Institutional support for higher speed connectivity

Adoption

“The danger in times of turbulence is not the turbulence. It is to act with yesterday’s logic”– Peter F. Drucker

Solution: Change the Math

C + O < (r)R + EB

And how do we do that?And how do we do that?

Lead to …Lead to …

Background for Gig.U

The University-Community Next Generation Innovation Project

Over the spring and summer of 2011, 37 leading research universities, working in partnership with their local communities, formed Gig.U

Our Mission

Our Purpose

• Accelerate the deployment of world-leading, next generation networks in the United States

• Provide an opportunity to lead in the next generation of ultra-high speed network services and applications

Not News for Washington Post but…

所美国大学筹备各自建立 1Gbps网络社区“ GigU”

Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch

Not News for Washington Post but…

所美国大学筹备各自建立 1Gbps网络社区“ GigU”

Headline from Chinese Newspaper day after Gig.U launch

China Flexes Its FTTx Muscle

China's massive buildout has ensured that the fiber center of gravity has swung to Asia/Pacific. By 2016, Ovum predicts, 50 percent of all wireline broadband subscribers in the region will be FTTx, compared with 16 percent in Europe and 14 percent in North America.

Light Reading, December 5, 2011

University-communities: a strategic market opportunity

Advantages of University-communities

Demand for Bandwidth

=Greatest

Cost of Deployment

=Least

Positive Impact of Network Access

=Greatest

State of Play of Networks in University Communities

Opportunity: Create a Seamless Broadband Experience between the Campus and the Community

University-communities: Birthplace of Network Based Innovations

In 21st Century economy, we can lower barriers to innovation by increasing bandwidth.

Economic clusters require access to abundant strategic inputs for success

Key: Increase understanding of need to bring bandwidth to where it fuels the most innovation.

Demand for Bandwidth

=Greatest

Cost of Deployment

=Least

Positive Impact of Network Access

=Greatest

Clusters that depend on the ability to capture and send data and collaborate with non-local sources require greater bandwidth than others.

It Can Be Done

But It Requires a Different Approach at the Local Level

Key to Changing the Math—Asymmetry

Implications: The benefits of world-leading networks

Use Case

Other Use Cases

But we really have no idea……

International Efforts

“Home Internet May Get Even Faster in South Korea”By Mark McDonald, February 21, 2011

Other countries investing in Gigabit connectivity through policy driven actions . . .

“Cheap, Ultrafast Broadband? Hong Kong Has It”By Randall Stross, March 5, 2011

South Korea already claims the world’s fastest Internet connections — the fastest globally by far — but that is hardly good enough for the government here.By the end of 2012, South Korea intends to connect every home in the country to the Internet at one gigabit per second. That would be a tenfold increase from the already blazing national standard and more than 200 times as fast as the average household setup in the United States.

Hong Kong residents can enjoy astoundingly fast broadband at an astoundingly low price. It became available last year, when a scrappy company called Hong Kong Broadband Network introduced a new option for its fiber-to-the-home service: a speed of 1,000 megabits a second--known as a “gig”-- for less than $26 a month. In the United States, we don’t have anything close to that. But we could. And we should.

. . . Others with Gigabit networks include Japan, Sweden, Spain, Turkey

Other International Efforts

“Osborne announces 10 ‘super connected cities”By Maijia Palmer, November 30, 2011

England has different strategies to build faster broadband…

“London’s CityFibre to build a $800 million gigabit network”By Om Malik, November 3, 2011

The chancellor has pledged an additional £100m fund to help create 10 “super-connected” cities across the UK, which will have broadband speeds of 80 to 100 megabits a second…“It means creating new superfast digital networks for companies across our country. These do not exist today. See what countries like China or Brazil are building, and you’ll also see why we risk falling behind the rest of the world,” Mr Osborne said.

When it comes to fiber-based broadband, the U.K. lags behind its European neighbors, which have been aggressive in rolling out really fast networks. Many critics blame British Telecom dragging its feet mostly because it doesn’t have any real competition.

Other United States Efforts

Geographic Cluster ModelService Offering, 2Q12

Google

U.S. IgniteRoll-0ut 1Q12

http://us-ignite.org/

U.S. IgniteRoll-0ut 1Q12

http://us-ignite.org/

Research Facilities: Moving to 100 Gig Connections

“National LambdaRail provides 100 Gigabit Connection for NOAA at Supercomputing 2011. Next Generation Research Capabilities Will Be Demonstrated Using Cisco Technology and NLR Transport Network”By Bizjounrals.com, November 7, 2011

“Research institute deploys 100 Gigabit Ethernet from core to closet”By Shamus McGillicuddy, November 28, 2011

US Dept. of Energy awards cPacket Bizjournals.com - Nov 7, 2011The company plans to use the grant to develop a 100 gigabit per second scalable Network Intrusion Detection System to help protect data center, commercial organizations and government organizations, which are susceptible to security problems

To support its high-performance computing (HPC) requirements, a research institute built a new 100 Gigabit Ethernet (GbE) backbone with Brocade.Researchers at the Howard Hughes Medical Institute (HHMI) in Chevy Chase, Md., generate large volumes of data imaging, which in many cases requires 10 GbE connections at the campus access layer, according to Spartaco Cicerchia, director of enterprise systems for HHMI.

Includes:•Local Governments

•Universities•Utilities

•MDU Owners•Anchor Institutions•R&E Networks

Includes:•Local Governments

•Universities•Utilities

•MDU Owners•Anchor Institutions•R&E Networks

What Happens Next With Gig.U?

What is likely to happen?

Like all great journeys, the level of optimism is greater than the quality of the map…..