The Truth About Unemployment

8/3/2019 The Truth About Unemployment

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5/2/12

T ere are 154 m onworkers in the U.S.

Sources: BLS, BEA and Census Oct. 2011 Data

• 148% increase over past 60 years• Inflation adjusted-GDP has grown 510% to $13T over same

period•

Total population has grown 102% over same period



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T e unemp oyment rate was9.0% in October 2011

• 7.4% of those not counted in labor force, want a job now• Congressional Budget Office predicts 8.9% rate at year end• CBO forecasts 5.3% and 5.2% unemployment rates five- and

ten-years out, respectively

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve



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to roughly 14 millionAmericans

• The number of jobless Americans has remained above 13.5

million even after the recession officially ended in 2009






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determiner of whetheryou’ll be unemployed

Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Number of unemployed Americans by education:

• Less than High School: 1.6 million•

High School: 3.6 million• Some College: 3.1 million• Bachelor’s or Higher: 2.1 million



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fewer s s ave beenshedding jobs,compounding problems• Take retail: the National Retail Federation expects seasonal

hires to be level with last year at ~500,000, representing littlegrowth

Source: McKinsey & Co., Bureau of Labor Statistics



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Unemp oyment s muc worsefor blacks and Hispanics


• Unemployment as of October 2011:

• Black: 14.3%•

Hispanic: 11.4%• Asian: 7.3%• White: 7.6%



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,persist in Pacific and SouthEastern states

Source: McKinsey & Co., Bureau of Labor Statistics

• Areas associated with foreclosures have been particularly hard

hit as the construction and housing industries stall

Unemployment Rate – December 2010





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decline, includingCalifornia, Florida and

Michigan


• Americans unemployed in the Midwest have had tremendous

difficulty as turnover and job creation are increasingly slow

States with highest unemployment:

1. Nevada: 13.4%2. California: 11.9%3. Michigan: 11.1%4. D. of Columbia: 11.1%5. South Carolina: 11.0%

Unemployment Rate as of September 2011

f



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Average engt of unemployment has surged

Source: St. Louis Federal Reserve, Bureau of Labor

• Job creation has kept relative pace with the number of new additionsto the labor force, keeping unemployment stagnant

• Mean duration of unemployment is currently 39 weeks•

52% of unemployed Americans have exhausted federal benefits

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an Duration of Unemployment (In Wee

d b



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ncreased, but rema nsbelow the earlier part of thedecade


• 3.5 million jobs posted this September was the highest in threeyears

• Low set in July 2009 with 2.1 million openings

f



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corporate prof ts are at arecord high, even asemployment remains weak


• S&P 500 components have reported third quarter net incomeof $207 billion, according to data provided by Bloomberg





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professionals make theleast


b



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ob ess c a ms are c ose totheir best levels since thecrisis began


• Last week, 390,000 new claims were submitted• Four week moving average declined by 5,300 to 400,000



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,civilian participation rate ison a deep decline

• 58.4% of Americans are employed, the lowest percentage of thepopulation at work since October 1983




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unemployment rate is closer to16%• In October 2009, a record high under-employment rate was set at 17.4%

• The Census Dept. estimates 46.2 million Americans were living inpoverty in 2010, up from 43.6 million in 2009

Source: S t. Louis Federal Reserve

Y



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Yout unemp oyment sparticularly bad

Source: S t. Louis Federal Reserve

• At the end of August, 18.1% of Americans aged 16 to 24 were countedas unemployed

• California alone has 545,000 unemployed youth•

43% of young adults are not satisfied with their current level of employment

d f



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gett ng ess and ess of t eoverall pie as income toGDP continues to fall

So urce: St. Louis Federal Reserve

• Wage and salary disbursements hit an all-time high of $6.7 trillion this year• As a percentage of GDP, it declined to 44%, close to the all-time low set last

October

4 2 d



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4.2 unemp oyed wor erscompeting for every jobopening


• That’s on a decline, but still above the 2.8 average over the past decadeand above 2 — the number many economists note is needed for a healthy

job market



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The Truth About Unemployment