The transport system transition: consumers, innovations and other

driversFrances Sprei, Assistant Professor

Physical Resource Theory

Energy and Environment

Chalmers

Fossil free road transport investigation

Fossil

Biofuels

Electricity

Personal vehicles Busses and city distribution trucks

Shar

e o

f ki

lom

eter

s

How big is the challenge? Some numbers

Total 4 870 000 cars in Sweden (june 2016)

Roughly 350 000 new cars per year

100% percent fossil free cars : 14 years to replace fleet

Studies on turnover rates

Western European fleet

3 scenarios with different sales penetration rates

2010 2015 2020

Less aggressive 17% 29% 39%

Moderatelyaggresive

17% 63% 78%

Very aggresive 17% 75% 97%

(Belzowski & McManus, 2010)

How fast can you turn over a fleet?

Western European fleet3 scenarios with different sales penetration rates

• Similar results for USA, Japan and other markets

2010 2015 2020 Fleet turned over by 2050

Less aggressive

17% 29% 39% 69%

Moderatelyaggresive

17% 63% 78% 83%

Veryaggresive

17% 75% 97% 90%

(Belzowski & McManus, 2010)

Share green vehicles and flex-fuel vehicles in Sweden

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Share E85 cars

Share green vehicles and flex-fuel vehicles in Sweden

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

40%

45%

50%

2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014

Share "green cars" Share E85 cars

Vehicles < 120 g CO2 /km

Volvo V50: 99 g CO2

/km

Volvo V70: 119 g CO2

/km

2007 2010

Ford Fiesta 119 g CO2 /km

Toyota Prius 104 g CO2 /km

(Sprei, 2013)

Sales of Volvo VX0

(Sprei, 2013)

Sales of E85 connected with monetary benefit

Source: Whitehead et al 2015

Drop- in fuels will play an important role to reach fossil fuel indepence

Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390

Shar

e o

f ve

hic

les

Range Km

No adaptation

Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016

Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per month

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390

Shar

e o

f ve

hic

les

Range Km

No adaptation Once per month

Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016

Share of vehicles that can cover all their driving on a given range – with adaptation once per week

0

0,1

0,2

0,3

0,4

0,5

0,6

0,7

0,8

0,9

1

50 70 90 110 130 150 170 190 210 230 250 270 290 310 330 350 370 390

Shar

e o

f ve

hic

les

Range Km

No adaptation Once per month Once per week

Source: Jacobsson et al, 2016

Electric vehicles of vehicles will need to be complemented

Use cases for different mobility services

(CAR 2016)

Number of licenses per age group (1000s)

-

500

1 000

1 500

2 000

2 500

3 000

3 500

4 000

4 500

18-24 25-64 65-

Summary

• Consumers can be ”unreliable” – drop-in fuels can play an importantrole

• Plug-in hybrid electric vehicles will be important - to reach fossil free so will biofuels

• While the role of the car may shift in the future cars will still be around

• Mobility as a service, electrification and biofuels will all be needed to reach independence from fossil fuels

EXTRA SLIDES