THE TRANSPORT SYSTEM IS UNDER PRESSURE

Asset Management and Maintenance in Volatile Demand

1

© MobLab 2020

© MobLab 2020

Transport System - General

Demand Offer Assetsadaptation Operation

© MobLab 2020

Mild-Hybrid Diesel: 500’000 USD

Electric with Battery: 800’000 USD

Narrow-body: 100’000’000 USD

Widebody: 250’000’000 USD Locomotive: 4’500’000 USD

Train composition: 25’000’000 USD

InternationalRegulationand Laws

NationalCertifications

International RegulationNational Laws

Vehicles

Life:10-15 y

Life:1.5m km

Life: 40 y

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5

Why maintenance?In general context:● To maintain operational stability● To protect the asset (value)● To protect the company (safety)

In a volatile demand (drop):● To minimize the risk● To protect the asset (value)● To reduce costs (operation)● To protect the company (safety)

© MobLab 2020

Public Transport System in CHE (Switzerland)

Demand Offer Assetsadaptation Operation

MARKETDEMAND

GOVERNMENT REQUESTS

© MobLab 2020

Public Transport System in CHE (Switzerland)

Demand Offer Assetsadaptation Operation

MARKETDEMAND

GOVERNMENT REQUESTS

SERVICES

SCHEDULING

© MobLab 2020

Public Transport System in CHE (Switzerland)

Demand Offer Assetsadaptation Operation

MARKETDEMAND

GOVERNMENT REQUESTS

SERVICES

SCHEDULING

CAPEX

FLEET

© MobLab 2020

Public Transport System in CHE (Switzerland)

Demand Offer Assetsadaptation Operation

MARKETDEMAND

GOVERNMENT REQUESTS

SERVICES

SCHEDULING

CAPEX

FLEET

OPEXDOC

OPEXIOC

© MobLab 2020

Transport System - Aviation

Demand Offer Assetsadaptation Operation

MARKETDEMAND SERVICES

SCHEDULING

CAPEX

FLEET

OPEXDOC

OPEXIOC

Entry requirements

International agreements

Traffic Rights, e.g. passengers limitations, days of operations, overflights, etc.…

Visa, Medical conditions, etc.…

GOVERNMENT REQUESTS

© MobLab 2020

Transport System - Aviation

Demand Offer Assetsadaptation Operation

MARKETDEMAND SERVICES

SCHEDULING

CAPEX

FLEET

OPEXDOC

OPEXIOC

Entry requirements

International agreements

Traffic Rights, e.g. passengers limitations, days of operations, overflights, etc…

Visa, Medical conditions, etc…

© MobLab 2020

Demand

Demand 2019 +1.8%

Baseline 2018 / 2019

+5.6% Demand 2019

© MobLab 2020

Aviation: # of Passenger in Switzerland

13

0 2

7

1215

20 2425

272932

34 32

2928

2931

3336

38

3739

4344 4647 4952

55

58

0

5

10

15

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25

30

35

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45

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55

60

1950

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2016

2018

Milli

ons

Swissair Bankruptcy

Financial Crisis

© MobLab 2020

Aviation: # of Passenger in Switzerland – Fx

14

0 2

7

1215

20 2425

272932

34 32

2928

2931

3336

38

3739

4344 4647 4952

55

5859

17

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

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45

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55

60

1950

1952

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1990

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1998

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2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

2016

2018

2020

Milli

ons

Swissair Bankruptcy

Financial Crisis

1733 Years: back to 1987

© MobLab 2020

Aviation: # of Passenger in Switzerland – Fx

15

12.5

6

14.9

2

16.5

6

13.5

2

12.9

7

15.3

2

16.7

0

13.5

7

10.0

7

0.37 4.03

2.89

3.25% 2.68% 0.87% 0.40%

-22.35%

-97.58%

-75.90% -78.69%

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020

Passengers Changes to same Qx of previous year

© MobLab 2020

Aviation: # of Passenger in Switzerland – Fx

16

12.5

6

14.9

2

16.5

6

13.5

2

12.9

7

15.3

2

16.7

0

13.5

7

10.0

7

0.37 4.03

2.89

3.25% 2.68% 0.87% 0.40%

-22.35%

-97.58%

-75.90% -78.69%

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

20

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020

Passengers Changes to same Qx of previous year

AVG 14.5 m

AVG 2.4 m

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Rail: Billion-Passenger-km in Switzerland – Fx

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4.84 5.08

5.11 5.24

5.12 5.33 5.49

5.47

4.61

1.94

3.82

3.11

5.79%4.92% 7.44% 4.39%

-9.96%

-63.60%

-30.42%

-43.14%

-100%

-90%

-80%

-70%

-60%

-50%

-40%

-30%

-20%

-10%

0%

10%

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4

2018 2018 2018 2018 2019 2019 2019 2019 2020 2020 2020 2020

Billion Person-Kilometer Changes to same Qx of previous year

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Demand

Demand 2019 +1.8%

Baseline 2018 / 2019

+5.6% Demand 2019

© MobLab 2020

Demand

Demand 2019 +1.8%

Baseline 2018 / 2019

Demand 2020 (Q1-Q3) -68%

+5.6%

-35%Demand (Forecast)

2020 (Q1-Q4) -70% -37%

Demand 2019

Demand 2020 (Q1-Q3)

Demand (Forecast)

2020 (Q1-Q4)

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Cross-industry impact

Air TrafficControl

CargoServices

AirportServices

GroundOperations

F&BServices

Catering

CleaningServices

PublicTransport

AircraftMaintenance

PassengerServices

AirlineOperations

RetailServices

RealEstate

AirlineOverhead

TrafficControl

CargoServices

HubServices

OtherOperations

F&BServices

Catering

CleaningServices

RailTransport

Maintenance

PassengerServices

BusOperations

RetailServices

RealEstate

PT companyOverhead

© MobLab 2020

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DemandAnalysis

AssetSolution

Non-AssetSolution

Needs Definition

ManufacturersAnalysis

ConceptValidation

DetailedSpecifications

Supply Chain

ConceptDraft

Interior Designand Livery

ManufacturersTender(s)

Process & Analysis

IT HW & SW

Tools & Equipment

Data Management

Training

Spares

Employees

OperationsPlan

MaintenancePlan

OperationsManagement

MaintenanceManagement

Increase or Upgrade?

CustomerNeeds

What we do?

Adapted from Prof. Claudio Rolandi, RSM Master of Advance Sciences, SUPSI

0% 25% 50% 100%75%

Origin of costsInfrastructure Vehicle

Accidents Environment & Health

Railway

Road Private motorized

Pass

enge

r tra

nspo

rt

Road Public Transport

Aviation

Railway Freight

Frei

ght

trans

port Light-duty vehicles

(Road)

Heavy-duty vehicles (Road)

51.0

9.7

10.2

4.0

9.02.4

6.7

2017, Federal Office of Statistics

12.00% 55.50% 18.10% 14.40%

12.40% 75.10% 5.00% 7.50%

50.40% 42.90% 6.70%

18.20% 61.70% 20.10%

4.00% 80.00% 7.90%. 8.10%

16.50% 60.30% 4.30% 18.90%

33.40% 45.50% 21.10%

1’000m CHF

Final costs bearer

0% 25% 50% 100%75%

Railway

Road Private motorized

Pass

enge

r tra

nspo

rt

Road Public Transport

Aviation

Railway Freight

Frei

ght

trans

port Light-duty vehicles

(Road)

Heavy-duty vehicles (Road)

51.0

9.7

10.2

4.0

9.02.4

6.7

Passenger / user Carrier

Public sector Community

2017, Federal Office of Statistics

85.60% 14.40%

43.60% 48.80% 7.60%

45.00% 48.40% 6.60%

79.40% 1.30% 19.30%

91.80% 0.50% 7.70%

92.10% 7.90%

41.40% 12.70 25.10% 20.80%

1’000m CHF

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Airline Fleet 100 aircrafts → 200 Seats/aircraft, SLF 87%, 5 legs/day

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Simple example

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Airline Fleet 100 aircrafts → in average 87’000 Seats are taken

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Airline Fleet 100 aircrafts → in average 2’105 Seats are taken

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Q2: -97.58%

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50% of Aircrafts Owned

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Q2: -97.58%

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Quick reaction

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Aircraft sale and leasebackRebooking & Alliances

Renegotiate leaseEarlier return

Q2: -97.58%New SCM / Comp.

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DemandAnalysis

AssetSolution

Non-AssetSolution

Needs Definition

ManufacturersAnalysis

ConceptValidation

DetailedSpecifications

Supply Chain

ConceptDraft

Interior Designand Livery

ManufacturersTender(s)

Process & Analysis

IT HW & SW

Tools & Equipment

Data Management

Training

Spares

Employees

OperationsPlan

MaintenancePlan

OperationsManagement

MaintenanceManagement

Increase or Upgrade?

CustomerNeeds

What we do?

Adapted from Prof. Claudio Rolandi, RSM Master of Advance Sciences, SUPSI

© MobLab 2020

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Asset Upgrade

Short-termParking

Return tolessor

SaleLease-back

Supply Chain

Possible actions for PT companies

IT HW & SW

Tools & Equipment

Data Management

Training

Spares

Employees

OperationsPlan

MaintenancePlan

OperationsManagement

MaintenanceManagement

Storage(Long-term P.)

In-serviceOPS reserve

ScheduledMaintenance

Sale

?

Return to normal

expected soon?

Liquidity

Long Crisis:return to normal

expected in years

Reduced to legal /

operational minimum

?

What we do?

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS SHORT-TERM ACTIONS

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31

Upgrade

Short-termParking

Return tolessor

SaleLease-back

Supply Chain

Possible actions for PT companies

IT HW & SW

Tools & Equipment

Data Management

Training

Spares

Employees

OperationsPlan

MaintenancePlan

Storage(Long-term P.)

What we do?

In-serviceOPS reserve

ScheduledMaintenance

Sale

?

Return to normal exp.?

Liquidity

Long CrisisReturn to

normal ex. In years

Reduced to legal /

operational minimum

?

IMMEDIATE ACTIONS SHORT-TERM ACTIONS

EBIT neutral OPS

Concentrate locallyReduce inventory

Eliminate any unnecessary change

Maximize rentalReduce inventory

Scenarios & AI

Recurrence and licenses

Use parked aircrafts serviceable component

Cross over industry demand / Reduce!

Adapt & use slot

© MobLab 2020

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Main Differences Aviation - PT Aviation Public Transportation• Dynamic industry, heavy administration• Scheduling derived by demand• No subsidies• Specific skills required for employees• Relies in international market and growth• Extremely high Capital Investments• Very complex and expensive maintenance• Losses covered by shareholder• Key sector for economic development• Very high competition

• Stagnat industry, relies on the known• Scheduling derived by demand & governments• Partially heavy subsidies• Specific skills required for employees• Relies in national/local market and growth• Very high Capital Investments• Complex and costly maitenance• Losses covered partially by different states entity• Key sector for economic development• System does not allow a real competition

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Conclusions

• Act immediately• Reduce exposure and invested capital immediately

(difficult as the competitors are in the same position)• Cooperation's instead of fierce competition• Give-in some reductions• Re-invent the services• Really think out-of-the-box• Concentrate on the feasible and on business continuity

NEXT TIME BE PREPARED!

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Contacts

Simone BernasconiManaging Director MobLabViale Officina 18CH-6500 BellinzonaSwitzerland

s.bernasconi@moblab.swiss+41 79 559 29 29

© MobLab 2020