The Transition to Sustainable Energy in an Era of Upheaval

Daniel Kammen

Energy and Resources Group, Goldman School of Public Policy

& Department of Nuclear Engineering

Director, Renewable and Appropriate Energy Laboratory

University of California, Berkeley

Science Envoy for the U. S. State Department

Rutgers University Energy Institute, May 3, 2017

The Transition to Sustainable Energy

in an Era of Upheaval

http://rael.berkeley.eduhttp://rael.berkeley.edu

Takeaway information rich messages:1. The ‘2 degree pathway’ (or more) is still achievable

2. Scientific and technical transformations are critical to enabling a sustainable energy system, but it is social and policy innovationthat provides the ‘killer app’ for innovation and change

This is true on-grid and off-grid in both industrialized and industrializing

nations

A revolution in climate politics

U.S.- China Joint Announcement on Climate Change, 2014

4

INDC Commitments

in the Paris Accords

Innovations

not yet envisioned

What we need to do:

5Fuss et al.

(2014)

http://rael.berkeley.edu

7

A pathway to sustainability

8

Summary

http://rael.berkeley.edu

Power System Models

http://rael.berkeley/edu/project/SWITCH

WECC (Western

North America)

5/2012

Chile

4/2014East African

Power Pool

(EAPP):

1. Kenya

(6/2016)

2. (Selection

underway)

India, Planned:

10/2017

China, 4/2016

Malaysia,

1/2013

Kosovo

3/2013

Nicaragua:

6/2014



The Solar Energy Industry is an International Partnership


Energy Storage is Not Just Batteries

Natural gas (without or with storage)

Traditional and pumped hydropower

Flywheels

Flow batteries


14

SWITCH Model Description Analytics

𝑚𝑖𝑛(𝑐𝑖)

. 𝑁𝑃𝑉

𝑖,𝑘=1

𝑛,𝑚

𝑇𝐶𝑘 (𝑐𝑖)

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡 𝑇𝐶𝑘 = 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑖𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑐𝑖) + [𝑉𝑎𝑟𝑖𝑎𝑏𝑙𝑒 𝐶𝑜𝑠𝑡𝑖 ∗ 𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑐𝑖) ∗ 𝐶𝐹𝑖 ∗ 8760]

𝑖=1

𝑛

𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑐𝑖) ∗ 𝑃𝑒𝑎𝑘 𝐶𝑜𝑛𝑡𝑟𝑖𝑏𝑢𝑡𝑖𝑜𝑛𝑖 ≥ 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝑃𝑒𝑎𝑘 𝐷𝑒𝑚𝑎𝑛𝑑 ∗ [1 + 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑒𝑟𝑣𝑒 𝑀𝑎𝑟𝑔𝑖𝑛]

𝑖=1

𝑛

[𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑐𝑖) ∗ 𝐶𝐹𝑖 ∗ 8760] ≥ 𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑

𝐴𝑛𝑛𝑢𝑎𝑙 𝐿𝑜𝑎𝑑 ∗ 𝑆𝑝𝑖𝑙𝑙 𝐹𝑎𝑐𝑡𝑜𝑟 ≥

𝑖=1

𝑛

[𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑐𝑖) ∗ 𝐶𝐹𝑖 ∗ 8760]

𝑇𝑜𝑡𝑎𝑙 𝑅𝑒𝑠𝑜𝑢𝑟𝑐𝑒 𝑃𝑜𝑡𝑒𝑛𝑡𝑎𝑙𝑖 ≥

𝑘=1

𝑚

𝐶𝑎𝑝𝑎𝑐𝑖𝑡𝑦 (𝑐𝑖)

• Storage almost exclusively moves solar to the night

• Geothermal only remaining substantial baseload

Dispatch in 2050:

Flexibility and variable renewables dominate

-50

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

193111821019311182101931118210171 918210171 91821018210171 918210171 918210171 9171 91821018210171 919311182101821019311WEC

CElectricityDispa

tchin2050(GW)

HourofDay(PST)

Nuclear Geothermal Biopower Coal

CoalCCS Gas(baseload) GasCCS Gas(intermediate)

Gas(peaker) Storage(discharging) Hydro(non-pumped) Solar

Wind Storage(charging) Demand

JanFebMarAprMayJunJulAugSepOctNovDec

15

Pathways for

Western

North America


Example: the impact of Natural Gas

Leakage on carbon budgets

Johnstone and Kammen, 2017 in press


In China even aggressive wind, solar and storage

learning alone is not enough to phase out coal

http://rael.berkeley.edu/project/SWITCH

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050 2020 2030 2040 2050

wind

hydro

nuclear

storage

solar

gas ccs

gas

coal ccs

coal

Business

as UsualBAU with

Carbon capCurrent

aggressive

solar and wind

continued

IPCC 2050

(80% cut in

carbon)


One Carbon-Negative Pathway: for Study

Sanchez and Kammen, 2016







24/49

Case Study:

Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban

Transportation Needs


Bloomberg New Energy Finance. “Electric Vehicles: Revolutionizing Energy.” 2011.

Urban Transport Electrification


Urban Transportation Energy Consumption

Kammen, Daniel M., and Deborah A. Sunter. "City-integrated renewable energy for urban

sustainability." Science 352.6288 (2016): 922-928.


87 Global Cities Considered

GoogleMaps: UITP Millenium Cities


Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.

Photovoltaic Coverage Needs

𝑢transport

=𝑒transport

ρurban

𝑢solar= ηPV𝐺

% PV Coverage Required

=𝑢transport

𝑢solar

𝑢 = energy density

𝑒 = energy per capita

𝜌 = population density

𝐺 = solar insolation


Private Passenger Vehicle Use Predicts

Feasibility of PV-Powered Transportation

Sunter, D., Berkeley, P., and Kammen, D., “City-Integrated Photovoltaics to Satisfy Urban Transportation Energy Needs,”

WIT Transactions on Ecology and the Environment, 204 (2016): 559-567.

C = C E´E V( )LDVpropulsionGHGintensity

V D D T´T( )PercapitaLDVtransportuse

The Kaya Identity: An IPAT for Transportation

GHGemissionrate( !C ).isexpressedastheproductoftwosetsofvariablesrepresentingtheGHGintensityandper-capitarateofLDVuse.Currentpolicydiscussionisdominatedbyattentiontothefirstset,propulsionGHGintensity(gCO2VKT

-1,whereVKTis

vehicle-kilometerstraveled).Thissetcanbeimprovedbydecreasingfuelcarbonintensity,C/E(gCO2MJ

-1),anddecreasingenergyintensity,E/V(MJVKT

-1)

D=distanceT=numberoftrips.

Apte, Sager, Lemoine and Kammen, Environmental Research Letters, 2011

http://rael.berkeley.eduhttp://rael.berkeley.edu/project/the-eco-block-project

Oakland EcoBlock - ZNE and Zero Carbon Retrofit Pilot Project

Community Solar PV Micro Grid Waste Water Capture/Reuse

California Energy Commission Grant


Off-grid Electricity Enabled by Storage and Efficient Lights, but …

Impossible without secure mobile money


Information Technology Enables Transformative Energy Access Technologies


http://coolclimate.berkeley.edu/maps


Jones and Kammen, 2014



New York San Francisco

Bay Area

Chicago Dallas


Jones and Kammen, 2014



Takeaway message:

Scientific and technical transformations are critical to enabling a sustainable energy system, but it is the energy-information nexus that provides the ‘killer app’ for change

Twitter: @dan_kammen

Website: http://rael.berkeley.edu

Resources:

Documents

The Transition to Sustainable Energy in an Era of Upheaval