Rachel Skinner, Director, Development

@Rachel__Skinner

The transition to C/AVs:

understanding,

influencing and modelling

future trends

Now

+25 years?

or

Open options:

Transition leadership & partnership

opportunities

Benefits of a rapid transition

ONE-OFFOPPORTUNITIES

4

Towards “FULLY AUTONOMOUS

vehicles”

Definition: provides all “normally encountered”

journeys; any type of vehicles (cars, buses, freight)

Genuinely DRIVERLESS - no driver (or driver’s

seat).

Can move when empty

CONNECTED Likely to move as part of a

system

Increasingly multi-modal

Probably ELECTRIC

but could be a new energy source (e.g.

hydrogen)

Likely to be part of an

increasingly SHARED fleet

CORE TRENDS & DIRECTIONS

5

Towards “FULLY AUTONOMOUS

vehicles”

Definition: provides all “normally encountered”

journeys; any type of vehicles (cars, buses, freight)

Genuinely DRIVERLESS - no driver (or driver’s

seat).

Can move when empty

CONNECTED Likely to move as part of a

system

Increasingly multi-modal

Probably ELECTRIC

but could be a new energy source (e.g.

hydrogen)

Likely to be part of an

increasingly SHARED fleet

CORE TRENDS & DIRECTIONS

Now

+25 years?

orModelling implications & opportunities

TRIP GENERATIONIMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES - A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK

7

Decoupled trip ends

Management of quality & quantity of movement…

…desired movement as an input rather than a derived demand

For which the driverless transition offers the greatest potential benefit if we:

Use generated data to optimise

network operation

Aim towards a fully connected

roads system

Encourage and maximise

shared C/AV use

TRIP DISTRIBUTION & MODE SHARE: IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES: A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK

8

Attractiveness of C/AVs likely to be controlled, dynamic &

visible to users

e.g. speed, cost, journey times – relative & absolute

C/AVs as a new element of multi-modal journeys

Complementary vs. competitive

Personalised journeys: the next level?

For which the driverless transition offers the greatest potential benefit if we:

Ensure that place & route operators have

appropriate system and data control/access

Ensure integration between C/AVs and

(future) rail/metro systems

Work towards a connected road network

system

TRIP ASSIGNMENT:IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES - A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK

9

Perfect knowledge/operation or an easily distorted reality?

Planning for flexible and dynamic routes

e.g. future autonomous bus services

For which the driverless transition offers the greatest potential benefit if we:

Allow network operators to define, manage & monitor

network performance

STEPPING BACK: LAND USE & TRANSPORT MODELLING IMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES: A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK

10

Level of mobility service (MaaS) – a new driver for

growth?Population & jobs

MOVING ON: INVESTMENT IN INFRASTRUCTUREIMPLICATIONS & OPPORTUNITIES: A FULLY AUTONOMOUS NETWORK

11

Review:Existing strong business case

weakened by likely C/AV transition

Redouble:Existing strong business case

strengthened by C/AV transition

Reject:Weaker projects made even

weaker by likely C/AV transition

Reconsider:Previously weak projects with

new potential due to C/AV transition

CONCLUSION:12

Is it all – the world and the

models – just going to be

more complicated?

Rachel Skinner, Director, Development

@Rachel__Skinner

The transition to C/AVs:

understanding,

influencing and modelling

future trends