DARLEY AUSTRALIAN CUP (2000M) GROUP 1 WFA Race 8, 4.05pm (Melb time) Any chance of the legendary Bart Cummings training his 14th Australian Cup winner went out the window when Sirmione (last year’s winner) pulled up sore during the week, but his son Anthony probably has his best chance of winning his first with the improving (8) Road To Rock.

But Road To Rock must overcome the favourite (4) Theseo, who is the archetypal Australian Cup (read Flemington 2000m) horse in the mould of some of the good winners that dominated their races from the front – Durbridge (1994) and Vo Rogue (1989-90) are two that come to mind. Not that Theseo needs to lead, as he sat behind the pace when an easy winner of the Group 1 Mackinnon Stakes (WFA 2000m) at Flemington in the spring.

So tough is Theseo – “bone and muscle”, according to Gai Waterhouse when quoting from her father Tommy Smith’s journal – that if jockey Nash Rawiller decides to take up the running, it will be suicide for another rider to take him on, and on the big, flat Flemington track, a soft lead is like receiving the first five numbers in Tattslotto – you are almost home.

Theseo was far too good for his rivals in the Group 2 St. George Stakes (WFA 1800m) at Caulfield two weeks ago. Rawiller rode a masterful race in front by running along at a solid, steady tempo that kept any likely challengers at bay. And Theseo just kept going. He is likely to employ the same tactics again on Saturday.

Theseo is aiming to be the 11th St. George winner to win the Australian Cup – again emulating Durbridge and Vo Rogue.

Road To Rock stands out as the fresh horse on the scene, and also a horse that is making dramatic improvement. Blake Shinn replaces Damien Oliver (riding Baughurst), who has ridden the horse to win at Moonee Valley (1500m) and Caulfield (2000m) at his past two starts. Shinn, who rides for Waterhouse, has ridden Theseo in four races, so he knows what he is up against, and expect him to have the favourite in his sights all the way from his good draw (barrier 4).

(1) Niconero comes off a terrific, and dramatic win in the Group 1 Futurity Stakes (WFA 1600m) last week. Against him is the fact he has only one win from 11 starts at Flemington, and he is yet to win beyond 1800m.

Improvement can be expected from the mare (10) Zarita, who will track Theseo (barrier 1) from her gate, two. Zarita (fourth) beat Theseo (fifth) home in the Group 1 Cox Plate (WFA 2040m) in the spring, but Rawiller admits to riding “a shocker” on Theseo. Zarita, who rallied strongly for third in the St. George, will be fitter and she looks over the odds.

(2) Master O’Reilly, who is on his way to Dubai, will need to run well to warrant the trip, and there was a lot to like about his late-closing fourth in the St. George. Trainer Danny O’Brien is lamenting a lack of tactical pace in this race – where’s Barbaricus when you need him? (He’s also in Dubai.)

(7) Baughurst, with Oliver aboard, looks the only other winning chance.

The tips: Theseo should win from Road To Rock, Zarita and Baughurst.

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AND ALSO Super is the right term for Flemington on Saturday, with the Australian Guineas (1600m) and the Australian Cup (2000m) served up alongside the Newmarket Handicap (1200m) at the Group 1 smorgasbord. In fact, Listed is the lowest adjective applied to the day’s nine races. You don’t have to punt to enjoy the horseflesh; but if you do, look no further than Fravashi in the Guineas. The Falbrav colt has always promised plenty, but an injury in Queensland last year delayed delivery, and his first two runs back this time brought questions about whether he could deliver. He answered critics – of horse and rider Kerrin McEvoy – when he downed Nicconi at Caulfield on February 21. That run and an extra 200m on a bigger track point to a profitable punting proposition, especially if you can get $3.50 plus. You won’t get that about Theseo, the standout in the Australian Cup. On form the $2.25 on offer looks value. For those who don’t like the shorties, Baughurst ($13) proudly carries the tag ‘honest’, and Arapaho Miss ($21) might be finding some long-lost form. Just might be, mind you. The big question mark is over Rostova, whose rider Steven King will wear white, red and yellow Country Fire Authority silks in the Group 2 Sires’ Produce Stakes (1400m). If you’re the forgiving kind, and if you accept that she won’t have tongue/breathing issues again, she is the day’s banker, whatever the odds.

Stephen Howell

FLEMINGTON PREVIEW March 7, 2009