The Technical Take - November 18, 2013

8/13/2019 The Technical Take - November 18, 2013

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Report prepared by:

Ryan Lewenza, CFA, CMT

North America Equity Strategist

Inside

Technical Commentary (Pages 29)

Technical Almanac Trading Ideas

(Pages 1012)

Relative Strength Analysis (Pages 13

16)

Sentiment Indicators (Page 17)

Overbought/Oversold Stocks (Page 18)

Market Statistics (Page 19)

This Document is for distribution to Canadian

clients only.

Please refer to Appendix A in this report for

important information.

Volume 9 Highlights

Following the significant technical breakout of the S&P/TSX

Composite Index (S&P/TSX), the S&P/TSX has been backing and

filling as it works off its overbought technical condition. With the

S&P/TSX currently at 13,334, we see the potential for a modest

pullback to between 13,166 and 13,020, where 13,166 equates to a

38.2% retracement of its recent move and 13,020 being the 50-dayMA. Overall, we expect a near-term consolidation/pullback, but given

the technical breakout above key resistance of 12,900, we believe

the outlook for the S&P/TSX has greatly improved.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index remains in a clear long-term

downtrend and is trading below its declining 50- and 200-day MAs

The index recently sold-off and broke below short-term support o

275.54. We believe a central factor in the weakness was due to a

recent surge in the U.S. Dollar Index, which rallied last week on the

strong October U.S. nonfarm payrolls number. The CRB Index is

now oversold and as such, could lead to a short-term oversold

bounce in commodity prices. However, with the trend clearly down

we expect the CRB Index to retest the June 2012 lows of 267.

Despite increased chatter from some pundits that the market lookstoppy, the short-, intermediate- and long-term trends for the S&P500 Index (S&P 500) are upward and very bullish, in our opinion.

We are bullish on the U.S. financials sector, particularly on the U.S.life insurance industry. Given the strong price and relative trends wewould recommend increasing exposure to U.S. lifecos on weakness.

In this weeks report, we highlight Valeant PharmaceuticalsInternational Inc. (VRX-T), Kohls Corp (KSS-N) and Regions

Financial Corp. (RF-N)as attractive technical buy candidates.

Chart of the WeekU.S. Lifecos Breakout to New Highs

November 18, 2013


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The TechnicalTake November 18, 2013

Page 2

Technical Commentary

S&P/TSX Composite Index

Following the significant technical breakout of the S&P/TSX Composite Index (S&P/TSX) above the key 12,900

level, the S&P/TSX has been backing and filling as it works off its overbought technical condition.

Momentum has begun to weaken, illustrated by the MACD beginning to rollover (red circle). With the S&P/TSX stil

technically overbought, currently 5.3% above its 200-day moving average (MA), the highest level since March 2013

and momentum rolling over, we see the potential for some near-term, downward pressure.

With the S&P/TSX currently at 13,334, we see the potential for a modest pullback to between 13,166 and 13,020

where 13,166 equates to a 38.2% retracement of its recent move and 13,020 being the 50-day MA.

One bullish, near-term observation is the developing flag pattern, which if the S&P/TSX were to breakout to the

upside would have a measuring implication of 793 points, or 14,264 on the S&P/TSX, based on the length o

flagpole. However, under this scenario, the S&P/TSX would have to break above next key resistance of 13,516

which marks the July 2011 highs.

Overall, we expect a near-term consolidation/pullback, but given the technical breakout above key resistance of

12,900, we believe the outlook for the S&P/TSX has greatly improved, and see additional upside into the seasonally

strong October to April period.


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Page 3

Canadian Sector Highlights

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at November 13, 2013.

Weekly Momentum:

The information technology, materials and telecommunication services sectors outperformed last week, while the

energy, utilities and health care sectors underperformed the broader market.

The materials sector has shown improvement lately but performance has been mixed, with the sector vacillating

between the best and worst performing sector over the last six weeks.

The industrials and financials sectors continue to trade well, with the sectors consistently near the top of the sector

rankings over the last six weeks.

Market Condition:

Given the continued strength in the industrials and financials sectors, they are now overbought with Relative

Strength Index (RSI) levels above 70.

Other:

With the recent strength in the telecommunications services sector, it is now trading back above its 200-day MA.

The utilities and materials sectors remain below their respective 200-day MAs.

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX 137.93 136.18 Uptrend 129.71 Uptrend 57.72 Neutral 1 10 11 11 2 8

S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX 2107.36 2150.25 Downtrend 2320.68 Downtrend 45.33 Neutral 2 11 1 1 11 11

S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX 1153.23 1112.04 Uptrend 1116.71 Uptrend 65.49 Neutral 3 5 5 7 1 10S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX 2046.30 1954.64 Uptrend 1857.39 Uptrend 82.23 Overbought 4 2 7 3 5 6

S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX 1935.94 1799.22 Uptrend 1707.90 Uptrend 78.23 Overbought 5 3 2 9 4 2

S&P/TSX COMPOSITE INDEX 13326.04 13008.94 Uptrend 12653.17 Uptrend 59.67 Neutral 6 6 4 5 9 7

S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX 1458.35 1411.73 Uptrend 1277.20 Uptrend 63.71 Neutral 7 1 6 10 8 3

S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX 2600.03 2533.82 Uptrend 2376.26 Uptrend 57.81 Neutral 8 4 8 8 3 4

S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX 2805.49 2802.51 Uptrend 2736.16 Uptrend 44.77 Neutral 9 7 10 6 7 9

S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX 1775.69 1760.26 Uptrend 1849.69 Downtrend 43.25 Neutral 10 8 3 4 6 5

S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX 1421.16 1425.75 Downtrend 1240.13 Uptrend 46.87 Neutral 11 9 9 2 10 1

Ranking of Weekly Momentum


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Page 4

Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index

The S&P/TSX is heavily weighted in resources and as such, commodity prices are incredibly important to the

performance of the Canadian equity market. On that front, we see little to get excited about and one reason why we

continue to prefer U.S. equities.

The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index remains in a clear long-term downtrend, and is trading below its declining 50- and

200-day MAs. The index recently sold-off and broke below short-term support of 275.54. We believe a central facto

in the weakness was due to a recent surge in the U.S. Dollar Index, which rallied on the strong October U.S

nonfarm payrolls number. As seen in the lower panel, the CRB index is generally negatively correlated with the U.S.

Dollar Index, and with the recent strength in the U.S. Dollar Index, the current weakness in the CRB Index should

not be a surprise.

The CRB index is now oversold and as such, we could see a short-term oversold bounce in commodity prices;

however, with the trend clearly down, we expect the CRB index to retest the June 2012 lows of 267.

To become more constructive on commodity prices, we would need to see the CRB Index break above its

downtrend and 200-day MA, which converge around the 290 level.


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Page 5

S&P 500 Index

Despite increased chatter from some pundits that the market looks toppy, the short -, intermediate- and long-term

trends for the S&P 500 Index (S&P 500) are upward and very bullish, in our opinion. Since the November lows, the S&P 500 has traded in a strong, upward channel and remains above its rising 50-

and 200-day MAs. In the short term, we note that: 1) the daily MACD indicator appears to be rolling over; 2) the relative uptrend of the

small-cap Russell 2000 Index versus the S&P 500 was recently broken; and 3) investor sentiment remains overlybullish. Considering these factors, we see the potential for further near-term pressure, with the S&P 500 possiblyretesting its rising 50-day MA, which currently intersects at 1,718. A decisive break below this level would likelycause us to take a more cautious view on U.S. equity markets.

Outside of the potential for some short-term backing and filling, we remain bullish on U.S. equities, and with themarkets entering its strong seasonal period of October to April, we see the potential for further gains.


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U.S. Sector Highlights

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at November 13, 2013.

Weekly Momentum:

The cyclical sectors outperformed last week with the materials, financials, energy and information technology

sectors posting the strongest returns.

Conversely, the utilities and telecommunication services sectors underperformed last week on the back of higher

interest rates following the better-than-expected nonfarm payrolls release.

Financials, which have been weak recently, showed improved performance last week on the back of the strong

October U.S. nonfarm payrolls number. We view the financials sector as a key leading sector and we prefer to see it

leading the market, rather than lagging, which has been the case in recent weeks.

Market Condition:

All sectors are neutrally ranked, with RSI readings between 30 and 70.

Other:

The telecommunication service sector is the only sector trading below its 200-day MA.

Last Trend of Trend of RSI Market

Name Price 50 DMA 50 DMA 200 DMA 200 DMA 14 Day Condition Current 2 3 4 5 6

S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX 277.53 269.97 Uptrend 254.83 Uptrend 57.78 Neutral 1 11 4 7 10 2

S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX 278.17 274.25 Uptrend 261.46 Uptrend 52.33 Neutral 2 10 11 2 4 5

S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX 629.63 617.76 Uptrend 594.59 Uptrend 53.46 Neutral 3 8 10 4 7 4S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX 550.90 529.33 Uptrend 502.33 Uptrend 66.15 Neutral 4 6 8 6 8 6

S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX 427.57 408.06 Uptrend 379.64 Uptrend 68.22 Neutral 5 4 1 10 3 10

S&P 500 INDEX 1767.69 1715.69 Uptrend 1633.18 Uptrend 59.77 Neutral 6 7 7 5 6 7

S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX 438.53 422.75 Uptrend 415.38 Uptrend 61.59 Neutral 7 2 6 9 2 11

S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX 616.13 598.28 Uptrend 561.30 Uptrend 60.40 Neutral 8 3 9 3 9 1

S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX 501.30 485.95 Uptrend 450.22 Uptrend 57.79 Neutral 9 5 3 8 11 3

S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX 195.63 192.76 Uptrend 194.42 Uptrend 49.16 Neutral 10 9 2 11 1 9

S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX 156.82 153.43 Uptrend 156.83 Downtrend 51.38 Neutral 11 1 5 1 5 8

Ranking of Weekly Momentum


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Page 7

Dow Jones U.S. Life Insurance Index

We are bullish on the U.S. financials sector, particularly on the U.S. life insurance industry. The Dow Jones U.S. Life Insurance Index remains in a strong uptrend, currently above its rising 50- and 200-day

MAs. The index recently broke above short-term resistance, making a new high. The sector has exhibited strongrelative strength since May, outperforming the market and more importantly, continuing to outperform the financialssector.

Stocks that we like technically include: Prudential Financial Inc. (PRU-N), Aflac Incorporated (AFL-N) andMetlife Inc. (MET-N).

Given the strong price and relative trends we would recommend increasing exposure to U.S. lifecos on weakness.


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Intermarket Picture

U.S. Dollar IndexThe U.S. Dollar Index reversed its recent weakness, with the U.S. dollar rallying on the better-than-

expected U.S. nonfarm payrolls release. A stronger jobs market increases the odds that the U.S. Federal Reserve (Fed)

could begin to taper its asset purchases, hence the recent strength. We continue to believe the reduction of asset

purchases will occur in Q1/14, which we believe would be bullish for the U.S. dollar. As such, we see the U.S. Dollar Index

gaining in 2014, but see it more range-bound over the next few months. The U.S. Dollar Index is currently finding

resistance at the 100-day MA at 81.44. A break above this level could result in he U.S. Dollar Index rallying back up to its

resistance in the 82.50 to 83.50 range.

U.S. 10-Year Treasury YieldWe correctly called for a bounce in the 10-year Treasury yield in our November 4threpor

when we stated that momentum (MACD) remains weak but could soon bottom. If this plays out, we expect to see the 10-

year mover higher in the short term, possibly back up to its 50-day MA, currently at 2.71%. The 10-year Treasury yield

bounced off support at 2.46%, and is quickly approaching resistance. We continue to see the 10-year Treasury yield as

range-bound over the next few months, but see it moving higher in 2014 on the back of the expected Fed taper.


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Page 9

Gold The gold price found resistance at its short-term downtrend and 50-day MA, and is now retesting short-term

support around US$1,250-1,260/oz. With the gold price at a technical support level and nearing an oversold condition, we

expect a short-term bounce soon. However, if the downtrend persists, the gold price should be capped in the

US$1,325/oz to US$1,345/oz range, which is the convergence of the 50-day MA and the short-term downtrend. We

continue to believe gold prices will trade range-bound between US$1,180/oz and US$1,480/oz. on an intermediate basis.

West Texas Intermediate (WTI) OilOil prices remain under pressure, with WTI oil now trading at its uptrend support

line at US$92.50/bl. With WTI oil technically oversold and at trend support, we see the potential for a short-term trading

bounce. Resistance comes in at $US98/bl. which is the convergence of the 200-day MA and previous resistance. If WTI

oil is unable to hold trend support, we could see it retest key support in the mid-$80s/bl.


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Technical Almanac Trading Ideas

Valeant Pharmaceuticals International lnc.Published November 6, 2013

VRX has been a stand-out performer in 2013, with the stock up 92% year-to-date. Despite the strong gains, we seethe potential for further upside in the stock. VRX is trading in a solid uptrend, and above its 50- and 200-day moving averages (MA). On recent pullbacks, VRX

has bounced off its 50-day MA, which is a sign of technical strength. This occurred last week after the companyreported revenues that missed the consensus estimate and lowered earnings guidance. Investors quickly sold thestock on the news, but it recovered by the end of the day. When stocks rally in the face of negative news, it is a signof technical strength. Finally, we note that VRXs relative strength remains strong, as it cont inues to outperform themarket.

While we see the potential for further upside, we would employ a stop loss just below $100, which was the Auguslow.


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Kohls Corp (KSS-N)Published November 8, 2013

We are highlighting the technical breakout of Kohls Corp. from our breakout/breakdown model*. KSS has consistently underperformed over the last few years and traded in a range between roughly $41 and $54

However, with the recent break above key technical resistance of $54, we believe KSS technical profile hasimproved and see the stock in a new higher trading range.

Following the breakout, KSS became technically overbought with a Relative Strength Index (RSI) reading above 70Additionally, its MACD indicator looks elevated and could roll over in the short term. As such, the stock could

encounter some backing and filling in the near term. In light of KSS break above four-year resistance, we believe the stock is now in a new higher trading range, and

would buy it on any weakness. We would employ a stop loss of $49, which is just below its rising 200-day movingaverage (MA).

NOTE: *Our technical breakout/breakdown model is based on a weekly screen of the S&P 500 and S&P/TSX Composite for

stocks making a new high/low over the last 90 days on volume greater than +1 standard deviation from the 90-day average

volume.


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Regions Financial Corp. (RF-N)Published November 13, 2013

U.S. regional banks rallied on Friday, as the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield moved higher and yield curve steepenedfollowing the better-than-expected October U.S. nonfarm payrolls number. A steeper yield curve could provide a

boost to banks profitability, which is what precipitated the breakout in regional banks. We have been bullish on U.S. regional banks for some time and highlighted Keycorp (KEY-N) on March 8, 2013 (up

30% since then) and Huntington Banchares Inc. (HABN-Q) on July 5, 2103 (up 6.5% since then). Today we arehighlighting Regions Financial Corp. (RF-N) as an attractive technical buy candidate.

RF is trading in a solid uptrend and above its rising 200-day moving average (MA). Since its July high, the shareprice has been trending lower, but we believe the stock is forming a symmetrical triangle and could breakout. Oftenwhen stocks breakout from triangles, it is in the direction of its previous trend, which in RFs case suggests the nexmove could be upward. We see the potential for further upside, but recommend investors employ a stop loss belowthe 200-day MA around $9.


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Relative Strength Analysis

S&P 500

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. As at November 13, 2013

0.30

0.31

0.32

May 13 Jun 13 Jul 13 Aug 13 Sep 13 Oct 13 Nov 13

S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.227

0.261

0.295

Nov 10 May 11 Nov 11 May 12 Nov 12 May 13

S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.271

0.282

0.292


S&P 500 CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.30

0.33

0.37


S&P 500 INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.23

0.24

0.25


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.22

0.24

0.25


S&P 500 INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.17

0.20


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.15

0.16

0.16


S&P 500 MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.36

0.37

0.38


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.35

0.41

0.46


S&P 500 ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P 500

Cyclicals

13MAY13 - 13NOV1313NOV10 - 13NOV13

The informat ion

technology sector

broke its intermedia

downt rend and is

t rading range-boun

in the short - term.

The industr ia l

sectors long-term

downt rend has

recent ly been bro ke

due to i t s improv ing

short - term trends.

The consu mer

discret ionary secto

remains in a long-

term relat ive uptren

The mater ials secto

remains in a long-

term relat ive

downtrend.

Improving on a sho

term b asis.

The energy sectorremains in a long-

term relat ive

downtrend.

Short - term trend is

range-bound.


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Page 14


0.23

0.26

0.28


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.14

0.16

0.18


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.28

0.32

0.37


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.09

0.10

0.12


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.11

0.13

0.16


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.24

0.25

0.27


S&P 500 CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.16

0.16

0.17


S&P 500 FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P 500

0.34

0.35

0.36


S&P 500 HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.09

0.10

0.10


S&P 500 TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P 500

0.11

0.12

0.13


S&P 500 UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P 500

13NOV10 - 13NOV13 13MAY13 - 13NOV13

Defensives

The consumer

staples sector bro

i ts long-term supp

The sectors short

t e rm d ownt rend m

be revers ing.

The financial secto

long-term uptrend

under p ressure.

The sector is mak

new short - termrelat ive lows.

The health care

sector remains in

long-term uptrend

The health care

sector is our

preferred defensiv

sector.

The telecom secto

recent ly made new

long -term relat ive

lows.

Short - term trend

remains weak.

The ut i l i t ies secto

mak ing new long-

term relat ive lows.

The sectors short

term trend remain

weak.


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Page 15

S&P/TSX Composite


0.01

0.01

0.01


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.071

0.092

0.113


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.099

0.105

0.112


S&P/TSX CONS DISCRET IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.01

0.01

0.02


S&P/TSX INFO TECH INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.14

0.15


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.10

0.12

0.15


S&P/TSX INDUSTRIALS IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.16

0.25

0.34


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.16

0.18

0.19


S&P/TSX MATERIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.22

0.23


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.21

0.23

0.25


S&P/TSX ENERGY INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

Cyclicals13MAY13 - 13NOV1313NOV10 - 13NOV13

The consumer

discret ionary sec

remains in a long

and sho rt - term

relat ive uptrend.

The informat ion

technology secto

longer- term trend

improving.

The sector is t rad

range-bound in th

short-term.

The industr ia l

sectors long-term

trend is bul l ish.

The industr ia ls se

is one of our

preferred sectors

The m ater ials

sectorstrend is w

on a long- and sh

term basis.

The energy secto

broke its long-ter

down trend in Jun

The sector was

improv ing on a sh

term basis, but

recent ly has begu

weaken again.


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Page 16


0.12

0.17

0.21


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.12

0.14

0.16


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.03

0.08

0.12


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.06

0.08

0.10


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.15

0.18


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.18

0.20

0.21


S&P/TSX CONS STAPLES IDX Relative to S &P/TSX Comp

0.14

0.15

0.16


S&P/TSX FINANCIALS INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.09

0.10

0.12


S&P/TSX HEALTH CARE IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.08

0.09

0.10


S&P/TSX TELECOM SERV IDX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

0.13

0.15

0.16


S&P/TSX UTILITIES INDEX Relative to S&P/TSX Comp

13NOV10 - 13NOV13 13MAY13 - 13NOV13

Defensives

The consumer

staples sectors lorelat ive trend is

posit ive.

Short - term trend i

neutral.

The ut i l i t ies secto

cont inu es to mak

new relat ive lows

The health care

sector remains in

long-term uptrend

Short - term up tren

under p ressure.

The telecom secto

long-term relat ive

t rend is neutral .

Short - term trend i

improv ing.

The f inancial sect

remains in a long

term relat ive up tr

The sector is

reaching new rela

highs in the

short term.


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Sentiment Indicators


Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago12.82 15.72 12.31 0.87 1.11 1.00

Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago Level 1 M Ago 3 M Ago

Bulls 45.48 37.84 35.62 68 70 73

Bears 21.81 30.07 25.00

Bulls - Bears 23.67 7.77 10.62

VIX CBOE Put/Call

% of Stocks Above

200-day MA

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

AAII Investor Sentiment: Bulls Minus Bears

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

Jan-10 Jul-10 Jan-11 Jul-11 Jan-12 Jul-12 Jan-13 Jul-13

NYSE % of Stocks Above 200-day MA

5

10

15

20

25

30

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

Volatility (VIX) Index

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

1.0

1.1

1.2

1.3

1.4

1.5

Jan-12 Apr-12 Jul-12 Oct-12 Jan-13 Apr-13 Jul-13 Oct-13

CBOE Total Put/Call Ratio 5-Day MA

The VIX remains low capturing

a com lacent market.

Put/Call ratio is low in the 0.80to 0.90 ran e.

Investor sentiment is

overly bullish.


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Page 18

Overbought/Oversold Stocks

S&P 500


S&P/TSX Composite


Most Overbought Most OversoldName RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

SOUTHWEST AIRLINES CO 82.41 JDS UNIPHASE CORP 25.99

PERRIGO CO 81.88 FMC TECHNOLOGIES INC 28.08

FOREST LABORATORIES INC 78.07 EDWARDS LIFESCIENCES CORP 28.46

CARDINAL HEALTH INC 76.64 AVON PRODUCTS INC 28.88

LORILLARD INC 75.86 APARTMENT INVT & MGMT CO -A 28.89

EXPEDIA INC 75.33 HEALTH CARE REIT INC 30.42

AMERISOURCEBERGEN CORP 75.15 WPX ENERGY INC 31.53

NORDSTROM INC 74.86 VENTAS INC 32.16

JOHNSON CONTROLS INC 74.68 MEADWESTVACO CORP 33.07

CR BARD INC 74.56 PLUM CREEK TIMBER CO 33.24

HEWLETT-PACKARD CO 74.54 PUBLIC STORAGE 33.51

INTUIT INC 74.20 HCP INC 33.87

ROSS STORES INC 73.83 CABLEVISION SYSTEMS-NY GRP-A 33.97TEXTRON INC 73.08 AVALONBAY COMMUNITIES INC 34.59

UNITED PARCEL SERVICE-CL B 72.46 EQUITY RESIDENTIAL 35.44

Most Overbought Most Oversold

Name RSI (14D) Name RSI (14D)

PETROMINERALES LTD 82.78 CANEXUS CORP 14.34

GENIVAR INC 76.33 PENN WEST PETROLEUM LTD 22.18

THOMSON REUTERS CORP 76.45 ATLANTIC POWER CORP 23.42

CAN IMPERIAL BK OF COMMERCE 78.94 WESTPORT INNOVATIONS INC 25.14

BANK OF NOVA SCOTIA 76.97 DETOUR GOLD CORP 26.08

TORONTO-DOMINION BANK 75.58 BLACKBERRY LTD 27.07

WESTSHORE TERMINALS INVESTME 58.18 CENTERRA GOLD INC 27.13

HOME CAPITAL GROUP INC 56.88 MANITOBA TELECOM SVCS INC 27.55

GENWORTH MI CANADA INC 77.61 PACIFIC RUBIALES ENERGY CORP 27.66

GREAT-WEST LIFECO INC 69.95 COMINAR REAL ESTATE INV-TR U 28.47

POWER FINANCIAL CORP 77.68 DUNDEE INTERNATIONAL REAL ES 28.79

CANADIAN PACIFIC RAILWAY LTD 73.52 REITMANS (CANADA) LTD-A 29.52

SUN LIFE FINANCIAL INC 73.97 MEG ENERGY CORP 29.69

NORTH WEST CO INC/THE 56.70 PRETIUM RESOURCES INC 30.15NATIONAL BANK OF CANADA 82.97 DOREL INDUSTRIES-CL B 31.05


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Page 19

Market Statistics

Source: Bloomberg Finance L.P. 3 and 5 year returns are annualized. As at November 13, 2013

Region Index Last 1 Week 1 Month 3 Month YTD 1 Year 3 Year 5 Year

U.S. S&P 500 1771.89 0.27 3.79 4.34 23.94 28.60 13.81 14.17

Dow Jones Industrial Average 15783.10 0.85 3.37 1.94 20.20 23.47 12.06 12.26

Dow Jones Transportation 7049.62 0.10 6.77 10.02 33.76 40.43 13.88 13.96Dow Jones Utilities 502.04 -0.71 1.32 0.20 9.95 11.74 7.50 5.58

Nasdaq Composite 3919.79 -0.51 3.38 6.39 29.82 35.92 15.89 19.68

Russell 2000 1101.50 -0.19 1.58 4.70 29.68 39.60 15.26 17.53

Russell 1000 Value 894.17 0.40 3.27 3.03 24.30 30.04 13.68 12.76

Russell 1000 Growth 821.85 -0.15 3.81 5.98 24.81 28.94 14.44 17.10

Canada S&P/TSX Composite 13358.39 -0.27 3.37 5.41 7.18 9.82 1.49 7.34

S&P/TSX 60 769.41 -0.05 3.63 6.15 7.64 10.56 1.65 6.30

S&P/TSX Smallcap 589.84 -1.08 2.27 2.89 0.11 0.63 -4.90 9.88

S&P/TSX Venture 935.36 -2.75 -0.33 0.13 -24.15 -28.02 -22.72 2.63

International DAX 9076.48 -0.55 3.05 6.84 18.11 25.42 10.11 14.10FTSE 100 6726.79 -1.79 2.06 0.13 12.26 14.42 4.53 9.69

Nikkei 225 14588.68 1.60 1.13 5.05 40.13 68.19 14.42 12.07

Hang Seng 22901.41 -2.49 -3.25 -0.34 -0.85 6.02 -2.48 11.18

Shanghai 2126.77 -2.41 -6.29 -0.86 -7.98 1.96 -11.24 1.61

MSCI World 1600.84 -0.57 2.65 4.67 19.43 25.69 8.94 12.33

MSCI EAFE 1855.51 -0.97 1.50 5.11 15.68 24.10 4.39 10.08

MSCI Emerging Markets 283.01 -1.67 -1.99 4.65 1.36 8.43 n/a n/a

S&P 500 Sectors Consumer Discretionary 502.41 -0.82 4.11 5.46 33.30 39.09 20.88 25.98

Comsumer Staples 438.09 0.00 4.99 2.75 21.55 23.21 13.92 11.97

Energy 635.12 -0.20 2.56 4.53 18.14 21.42 10.27 9.82

Financials 280.78 0.60 1.62 1.17 25.73 34.26 11.44 9.24Health care 616.51 0.42 3.90 4.71 33.09 35.89 19.84 14.84

Industrials 427.46 0.62 5.61 8.14 30.06 35.81 15.24 15.51

Information Technology 549.14 1.08 4.98 5.67 18.78 23.58 12.02 18.59

Materials 278.35 0.81 3.49 6.39 16.79 24.18 8.08 13.93

Telecommunications 156.34 -0.90 3.78 1.53 7.38 8.11 8.76 7.61

Utilities 197.46 -0.78 0.98 -0.24 10.11 12.08 7.30 5.55

S&P/TSX Sectors Consumer Discretionary 1458.88 -0.21 3.08 5.26 36.70 43.20 11.44 12.21

Comsumer Staples 2593.82 -0.74 2.01 3.48 23.09 31.76 17.09 13.47

Energy 2823.78 -1.33 0.05 3.40 5.68 8.14 -1.30 4.90

Financials 2047.07 0.78 5.22 9.15 16.55 22.52 8.40 8.94

Health care 1408.11 -3.15 -1.39 -1.78 56.85 60.93 47.46 38.80

Industrials 1933.39 0.90 7.56 13.58 29.89 37.09 15.99 15.53

Information Technology 136.47 2.88 0.41 -0.24 30.49 41.98 -15.89 -6.58

Materials 2134.63 -1.73 4.49 -3.58 -29.40 -31.93 -18.07 3.35

Telecommunications 1146.88 1.21 4.05 12.31 7.95 8.51 11.61 6.13

Utilities 1775.21 -2.66 0.94 0.06 -7.98 -6.04 -0.61 2.78


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Appendix AImportant Disclosures

General Research Disclaimer

The statements and statistics contained herein are based on material believed to be reliable, but are not guaranteed to be accurate or

complete. This report is for informational purposes only and is not an offer or solicitation with respect to the purchase or sale of any

investment fund, security or other product. Particular investment, trading, or tax strategies should be evaluated relative to each

individuals objectives. Graphs and charts are used for illustrative purposes only and do not reflect future values or future performance.

This document does not provide individual financial, legal, investment or tax advice. Please consult your own legal, investment and tax

advisor. All opinions and other information in this document are subject to change without notice. The Toronto-Dominion Bank and its

affiliates and related entities are not liable for any errors or omissions in the information or for any loss or damage suffered.

TD Waterhouse Canada Inc. and/or its affiliated persons or companies may hold a position in the securities mentioned, including

options, futures and other derivative instruments thereon, and may, as principal or agent, buy or sell such securities. Affiliated persons

or companies may also make a market in and participate in an underwriting of such securities.

Technical Research Disclaimer

The opinions expressed herein reflect a technical perspective and may differ from fundamental research on these issuers. Fundamenta

research can be obtained through your TD Wealth advisor or on the Markets and Research site within WebBroker.

The technical research opinions contained in this report are based on historical technical data and expectations of the most likely

direction of a market or security. No guarantee of that outcome is ever implied.

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proprietary websites for all eligible clients to access by password and we distribute the information to our sales personnel who then may

distribute it to their retail clients under the appropriate circumstances either by email, fax or regular mail. No recipient may pass on to

any other person, or reproduce by any means, the information contained in this report without our prior written consent.

Analyst Certification

The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report hereby certify that (i) the recommendations and

technical opinions expressed in the research report accurately reflect the personal views of the analyst(s) about any and all of the

securities or issuers discussed herein, and (ii) no part of the research analysts compensation was, is, or will be, directly or indirectly,

related to the provision of specific recommendations or views expressed by the research analyst in the research report.

Conflicts of Interest

The Portfolio Advice & Investment Research analyst(s) responsible for this report may own securities of the issuer(s) discussed in this

report. As with most other employees, the analyst(s) who prepared this report are compensated based upon (among other factors) the

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Corporate Disclosure

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Fund), TD Waterhouse Private Investment Counsel Inc., TD Wealth Private Banking (offered by The Toronto-Dominion Bank) and

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The Portfolio Advice and Investment Research team is part of TD Waterhouse Canada Inc., a subsidiary of The Toronto-Dominion

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TD Securities is the trade name which TD Securities Inc. and TD Securities (USA) LLC. jointly use to market their institutional equity

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TD Securities is a trade-mark of The Toronto-Dominion Bank representing TD Securities Inc., TD Securities (USA) LLC, TD Securities

Limited and certain corporate and investment banking activities of The Toronto-Dominion Bank.

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The Technical Take - November 18, 2013