THE TABLELANDS THE TABLELANDS ONE BIG ECONOMYONE BIG ECONOMY

Mareeba Chamber of Mareeba Chamber of CommerceCommerce

Inaugural Economic Inaugural Economic Development ForumDevelopment Forum

Ref: J2123Ref: J2123

14 August 200814 August 2008

W S (Bill) CummingsW S (Bill) Cummings CUMMINGS ECONOMICSCUMMINGS ECONOMICS

22

Queensland’s Queensland’s Northern and Northern and

Central Regions & Central Regions & Regional CapitalsRegional Capitals

33

The Tropical North Queensland region serviced by the The Tropical North Queensland region serviced by the city of Cairns is 1½ times the size of Victoria. It is as city of Cairns is 1½ times the size of Victoria. It is as deep from north to south as the State of New South deep from north to south as the State of New South Wales, in area as large as the British Isles, and about Wales, in area as large as the British Isles, and about the size of California.the size of California.

CAPITAL OF A LARGE, PREVIOUSLY CAPITAL OF A LARGE, PREVIOUSLY UNDERDEVELOPED, UNDERDEVELOPED,

RESOURCE RICH FRONTIER REGIONRESOURCE RICH FRONTIER REGION

44

TABLELANDS COMPARED WITH TASMANIA

55

TROPICALTROPICAL - -

Initial challenges to Initial challenges to technology technology

from north west Europe.from north west Europe.

Late settled.Late settled.

Initially slow to develop.Initially slow to develop.

Now catching up.Now catching up.

66

TROPICAL AUSTRALIAEST RESIDENT POPULATION 2006 & GROWTH 1996 to 2006

40,0

00

33,0

00

211,

000

248,

000

209,

000

159,

000

201,

000

45,0

00

4,00

0

7,00

0

28,0

00

35,0

00

30,0

00

26,0

00

22,0

00

0

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

Pilbar

a

Kimbe

rley

Darwin/

NT

Cairn

s/FNQ

Tvl/NQ

Mac

/Mac

kay

Rctn/

Fitzr

oy

Nth W

est/C

tl W

est

Est Res Pop'n Gwth 1996-2006

No.

Stat Division

Cummings Economics Source: ABS Data.

77

TABLELANDS INCREASING POPULATION(Estimated Residential)

26,32029,810

33,89836,849

39894 40,80143,627

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

No.

CUMMINGS CONOMICS

88

TABLELANDS ESTIMATED RESIDENTIAL POPULATION GROWTH5-year intercensal 1976 - 2006

907

3,045

3,490

4,088

2,951 2,826

3,615

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

4,000

4,500

1976-1981 1981-1986 1986-1991 1991-1996 1996-2001 2001-2006 2006-2111

No.

CUMMINGS CONOMICS(Est)

99

Asian Crisis – mineral pricesAsian Crisis – mineral prices. .

Asian Crisis – tourism.Asian Crisis – tourism.

Tobacco industry closure.Tobacco industry closure.

Dairying deregulation.Dairying deregulation.

Slower growth of whole region.Slower growth of whole region.

LATE 90’S SLOW GROWTH PERIOD

1010

TABLELANDS BUILDING APPROVALSNumber of Dwellings

184

294 297

427 438

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

500

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

No.

CUMMINGS CONOMICS

1111

TABLELANDS BUILDING APPROVALSTotal Value

$42m

$72m

$89m

$129m

$150m

$0

$20

$40

$60

$80

$100

$120

$140

$160

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08

$m

CUMMINGS CONOMICS

1212

TABLELANDSMEDIAN VALUE ALLOTMENT (250 – 2500 m2) SALES

Atherton$

Eacham$

Herberton$

Mareeba$

2001/02 39,000 53,500 22,000 45,800

2002/03 44,100 46,100 20,000 44,200

2003/04 52,600 42,300 23,800 42,800

2004/05 72,800 60,700 31,000 50,900

2005/06 85,200 81,700 36,700 66,600

2006/07 104,300 120,400 51,300 68,900

Source : Cummings Economics from Q’ld Dept of Infrastructure & Planning data.

1313

TABLELANDSMEDIAN HOUSE PRICES

Atherton$

Eacham$

Herberton$

Mareeba$

2002 122,500 109,000 70,000 98,000

2003 135,000 104,000 78,000 103,000

2004 165,000 138,000 90,000 130,000

2005 205,000 180,000 120,000 163,000

2006 258,250 250,000 175,000 197,000

2007 319,000 285,000 210,000 208,000

Source : Cummings Economics from RP Data.

1414

Value of Agricultural ProductionCROPS

Mareeba Shire ABS data 2000/01Mareeba Shire ABS data 2000/01 $107 $107 mm

Est Mareeba Dimbulah Irrigation Est Mareeba Dimbulah Irrigation Area based on DPI information, Area based on DPI information, 2004/052004/05

$146 $146 mm

1515

TOURISM RESOURCESTOURISM RESOURCESTourism Growth PhasesTourism Growth Phases

CAIRNS AIRPORT PASSENGER MOVEMENTS(Excluding international transits)

No. %

1997/98 2,725,000 0.4%0.4% Asian crisis

1998/99 2,770,000 1.7%

1999/00 2,882,000 4.0% +6%

2000/01 2,972,000 3.1%

2001/02 2,878,000 (-3.2%) Ansett collapse

2002/03 3,083,000 7.1%

+ 32%2003/04 3,402,000 10.3%

2004/05 3,689,000 8.4%

2005/06 3,832,000 3.4%

2006/07 3,889,000 1.4% High dollar

Source : Cummings Economics from TRA.

1616

MINING

EMPLOYMENT

UP

1717

Sugar mill.Sugar mill.

Poultry.Poultry.

Stockfeeds.Stockfeeds.

Stock licks and Stock licks and supplements.supplements.

Wines.Wines.

Dairy products.Dairy products.

Chocolates.Chocolates.

Coffee.Coffee.

Timber.Timber.

ADDITIONAL PROCESSING TABLELANDS INCLUDE:

1818

DECENTRALISED REGIONAL DECENTRALISED REGIONAL FACILITIES.FACILITIES.

BUILDING AND LANDSCAPING BUILDING AND LANDSCAPING RAW MATERIALS AND RAW MATERIALS AND BRICKS.BRICKS.

LIFESTYLE MOVEMENTS.LIFESTYLE MOVEMENTS.

OTHER FACTORS INCLUDE:

1919

GOOD REASONS FOR

CONTINUING

OPTIMISM

2020

A diversity of microclimates and production reduces vulnerability

AvocadoAvocado BananaBanana BasilBasil Bush foodsBush foods CashewsCashews CoffeeCoffee Custard appleCustard apple FlowersFlowers GrapefruitGrapefruit Grass seedGrass seed HayHay Legume seedLegume seed Lemons ‘Eureka’Lemons ‘Eureka’ LimesLimes LonganLongan LycheeLychee MacadamiaMacadamia MaizeMaize MandarinMandarin MangoMango

Mixed vegetablesMixed vegetables Native foliageNative foliage PawpawPawpaw PeachPeach PeanutsPeanuts PineapplePineapple PotatoesPotatoes PoultryPoultry PumpkinPumpkin Sorghum grainSorghum grain SoybeansSoybeans SugarcaneSugarcane Sweet potatoesSweet potatoes Table grapesTable grapes TeaTea Tea-treeTea-tree Tea-tree mulchTea-tree mulch TurfTurf WatermelonWatermelon

2121

THE REGION ACCOUNTS FOR THE REGION ACCOUNTS FOR 26%26% OF AUSTRALIA’S WATER RUNOFFOF AUSTRALIA’S WATER RUNOFF

2222

Per Capita Supply (1) of Some Selected Food StuffsIndia, China & Australia, 2002

India China Australia

Food Calories 2,459 2,951 3,054

Food Protein (Gr) 57.3 81.5 103.5

Fat (Gr) 49.6 90.3 131.2

Sugar & Sweeteners Kg/Year

24.7 7.2 48.2

Fruits (excl wines) 37.7 47.3 93.3

Stimulants (coffee/tea etc)

0.8 0.4 5.5

Meat 5.2 52.5 108.8

Fish/Seafood 4.8 25.6 22.3(1)Note : Supply – Production, Imports, Stock less exports.Source : Cummings Economics from FAO (website).

2323

HIGH OIL PRICES AND HIGH OIL PRICES AND CLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSESCLIMATE CHANGE RESPONSES

INCREASED BIOFUEL INCREASED BIOFUEL

PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

NEED FOR EXPANDED NEED FOR EXPANDED AGRICULTURAL AGRICULTURAL PRODUCTIONPRODUCTION

2424

TROPICAL LAG CLOSING TROPICAL LAG CLOSING

NEW BIO TECH PRODUCTSNEW BIO TECH PRODUCTS

Bio pharmaceuticalsBio pharmaceuticals NutriceuticalsNutriceuticals CosmeceuticalsCosmeceuticals Bio fuelsBio fuels Bio energyBio energy Bio degradable fibresBio degradable fibres Bio degradable plasticsBio degradable plastics Industrial – chemicals, paints, etc.Industrial – chemicals, paints, etc.

BIO TECHNOLOGY

2525

Motor Vehicle Numbers & Television Sets per ‘000 Pop’nIndia, China & Australia, 2004

India China Australia

Motor Vehicles 13 10 634

Television Sets 13 321 554

Source : Cummings Economics from UN Statistics.

2626

Support/Need for New Support/Need for New Infrastructure.Infrastructure.

Possible New Industrial Possible New Industrial Development Development Opportunities.Opportunities.

MINING GROWTH . . . . .

2727

Fuel cost – locals at home.Fuel cost – locals at home.

Baby boomer grey Baby boomer grey nomads.nomads.

Downward correction in Downward correction in the Australian dollar.the Australian dollar.

New airline capacity.New airline capacity.

TOURISM PROSPECTSLIKELY TO CHANGE . . . . .

2828

TOURISM GROWTH TOURISM GROWTH A NEW PHASE IN SIGHTA NEW PHASE IN SIGHT

New Generation of Aircraft in 2009

Boeing DreamlinersAirbus A380

2929

NEW

TOURISM MARKETS

EMERGING,

EG. CHINA

3030

SOUTHERN TABLELANDS SOUTHERN TABLELANDS

ContinuingContinuing agricultural agricultural intensification and intensification and diversification.diversification.

ContinuingContinuing major focus for major focus for tourism growth.tourism growth.

ContinuingContinuing major focus of major focus of lifestyle population movements.lifestyle population movements.

IMPLICATIONS FOR TABLELANDS

3131

NORTHERN TABLELANDS NORTHERN TABLELANDS

Major irrigation expansion Major irrigation expansion (Nullinga), (also Mt Garnet area).(Nullinga), (also Mt Garnet area).

Focus of cattle industry services.Focus of cattle industry services.

Focus of mining industry services.Focus of mining industry services.

Industrial expansion for mining Industrial expansion for mining industry and diversion from coast.industry and diversion from coast.

Any airport services diversion.Any airport services diversion.

Transport hub.Transport hub.

3232

KURANDA RANGE ROAD – LARGE KURANDA RANGE ROAD – LARGE FREIGHT EFFICIENT VEHICLES.FREIGHT EFFICIENT VEHICLES.

CAPE YORK and MITCHELL RIVER FEEDER CAPE YORK and MITCHELL RIVER FEEDER ROADS.ROADS.

ROAD TRAIN ROUTE – FROM MAREEBA ROAD TRAIN ROUTE – FROM MAREEBA VIA PETFORD/ALMADEN TO KENNEDY VIA PETFORD/ALMADEN TO KENNEDY HWY AT MT GARNET.HWY AT MT GARNET.

KENNEDY DEVELOPMENTAL ROAD – KENNEDY DEVELOPMENTAL ROAD – MISSING LINK LYND TO HUGHENDEN – MISSING LINK LYND TO HUGHENDEN – DIRECT PRODUCE FREIGHT ROUTE TO DIRECT PRODUCE FREIGHT ROUTE TO MELBOURNE and ADELAIDE. MELBOURNE and ADELAIDE.

TRANSPORT INFRASTRUCTURE DEVELOPMENT VITAL . . .

3333

3434

NEED FOR NEW THINKING

ABOUT WHERE

THE REGION IS GOING ...

www.cummings.net.au