The Supergrid: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply for Europe and its Neighborhood Optimal sustainable solution for climate protection: Transfer to US-American

The Supergrid: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply for Europe and its Neighborhood

Optimal sustainable solution for climate protection: Transfer to US-American conditions

G. Czisch, Transnational Renewables Consulting (TNRC), Stanford, 20110113

Dr.-Ing. Dipl.-Phys. G. Czisch

Is it possible to come to a totally renewable electricity supply?(Potentials, Technology, Temporal Production Behavior)

YES

Can we afford that? (Cost)

How could that work in an optimal case?

Utilisation of the renewable potentials for a common electricity supply interconnected within a strong international grid => affordable supply

preliminary questions:

Important steps to come there

Electricity Production with Hydropower

Photo source, VSE G. Czisch (TNRC), Stanford, 20110113

Storage Type

River Runoff Type

Storage Hydro Power in Europe: Rated Power, Storage Capacity and Annual Energy Production

G. Czisch (TNRC), Stanford, 20110113

Data of

UCTE 1998

Rated Power of Reservoir and mixed

pumped Storage

Storage Capacity of Reservoir and mixed

pumped Storage

Annual Energy Prod. of Reservoir and mixed

pumped Storage

[GW] [TWh] [TWh]

Slovenia/Croatia 1,4 1,8 ?Swizerland 8,2 8,4 18,0Serbia and Montenegro 2,0 2,0 ?Portugal 2,1 2,6 4,2Austria 5,6 3,2 7,0Luxemburg 0,0 0,0 0,0Italy 7,5 7,9 17,6Greece 1,9 2,4 2,8France 11,6 9,8 18,2Germany 1,4 0,3 1,1Belgium 0,0 0,0 0,0Spain 7,7 18,4 16,7

Sum of UCTE 49 57 86Data of

NORDEL

Norway 27,3 84,1 112,6Finland 2,9 4,9 12,6Sweden 16,2 33,7 63,6

Sum of NORDEL 46 123 189Sum of

NORDEL + UCTE 96 180 275

1 Month EU-consumption

>

Wind Energy

Photo source: http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgiG. Czisch (TNRC), Stanford, 20110113

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Mean Annual Production of 1.5 MW Variable Speed Wind Turbines (HH = 80 m) in Full Load Hours [FLH]

Meteorological data: ECMWF, ERA-15, 1979-1992 G. Czisch (TNRC), Stanford, 20110113

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an

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nu

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79

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992

[FL

H]

Comparison of the Average Electricity Production (Jul Jan) from Wind Energy (Monthly Mean of 15 Years)

Met. Data: ECMWF, ERA-15, 1979-1992 G. Czisch (TNRC), Stanford, 20110113

Pro

duct

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Mean Annual Production of 1.5 MW Variable Speed Wind Turbines (HH = 80 m)on Land Sites in Europe and its Neighbourhood

Meteorological data: ECMWF, ERA-15, 1979-1992


Electricity Demand 1998

UCTE & NODEL:

2100 TWh

Potential Wind Energy

Prod. on land sites with

more than 1500 FLH

at 4 – 8 MW/km2:

120 000 – 240 000 TWh

Mean Prod. at this sites:

2050 FLH

Take the best: =>0.4% of the area for

4000TWh .

EU & Norway2700 FLH400 TWhAt 0.29 MW/km2

North Russia & West Siberia3100 FLH1100 TWhAt 2.4 MW/km2

Kazakhstan2600 FLH550 TWhAt 2.4 MW/km2

Southern Morocco3400 FLH400 TWhAt 2.4 MW/km2

Mauritania3000 FLH320 TWhAt 2.4 MW/km2

Monthly Mean Electricity Production of Wind Power within Selected Favourable Regions at Land Sites and Electricity Demand

Meteorological data: ECMWF, ERA-15, 1990


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Selected Good Wind Sites within EU and Norway

Electricity Demand within EU & Norway

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Southern Morocco

Electric Demand within EU & Norway

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Combination of Production in all Regions

Electric Demand within EU & Norway

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Transmission of Electricity

Photo source: http://www.nrel.gov/data/pix/searchpix.cgiG. Czisch (TNRC), Stanford, 20110113

Some Estimated Maximum Net Transfer Capacities within UCTE and to its Neighbours in Winter 2004/2005 [MW]

Source of map: ETSO; Source of Data: ETSO


UCTENORDELUKTSOAATSOI

3360

2520

2000

1300

400 400

1000

1400

1400

High-Voltage-Direct-Current (HVDC) Transmission is a state-of-the-art technology able to transport elctricity over far distances with low losses and for low costs

Right 0f WayConventional 400 kV AC or new Supergrid with ±800 kV DC?


520 m

64 m

13 GW transmission capacity With conventional AC, 400 kV double system

13 GW transmission capacity With newest DC, ±800 kV HVDC double bipol

Or

Mean Annual Production of 1.5 MW Variable Speed Wind Turbines (HH = 80 m)on Land Sites in Europe and its Neighbourhood

Meteorological data: ECMWF, ERA-15, 1979-1992


Electricity Demand 1998

UCTE & NODEL:

2100 TWh

Potential Wind Energy

Prod. on land sites with

more than 1500 FLH

at 4 – 8 MW/km2:

120 000 – 240 000 TWh

Mean Prod. at this sites:

2050 FLH

Region Full Load Hours Distance to Kassel Costs[h/a] [km] [€c/kWh]

Land Sea Land & Seawithin the

Region in KasselCost of Losses

a) Nortern Russia and Western Sibiria 3100 4200 0 4200 3,1 4,4 0,5b) Kazakhstan 2600 4300 0 4300 4,1 5,9 0,7c) Southern Morocco 3400 4400 40 4440 3,0 4,5 0,5d) Mauritania 3000 4900 40 4940 3,2 4,8 0,6

Cost Calculation for Wind Energy from Far Distant Regions


Unit UnitHVDC Voltage +/- 600 [kV]Konverter Costs 2 * 60 [€/kW] Total Investment 1000 [€/kW]Converter Losses at full load 2 * 0.55 [%]Costs of Overhead Line 70 [€/(kW * 1000 km)]Costs of Sea Cable 700 [€/(kW * 1000 km)]Losses in Overhead Line and Cable at full load 4 [% / (1000 km)]Annual O & M Costs relative to total Investment 1 [%]

Annual O & M Costs relative to total Investment 2 [%]

Real Interest Rate 5 [%] Real Interest Rate 5 [%]Calculatory Livespan 25 [a] Calculatory Livespan 20 [a]

Rated HVDC Power = Rated Wind Power 5 GW

Underlaying AssumptionsTransportation System Wind Parks

Mean Losses[%]

10,4%10,2%10,4%10,8%

Comparison with Germany Onshore Wind Power:

Average Utilisation VLh

Cost of Electricity €c/kWh

Potential Common Electricity System


Population

1.1 billion Inhabitants

Electricity Consumption

4000 TWh/a

Largest Distance

8000 kmNorthwest-Siberia

South-Mauritania

HVDC-System

4.6 €ct/kWh

5.5 Ect/kWh4.6 €ct/kWh

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Fuel C

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Photovo

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Hydro

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Win

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Total P

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ransp

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[T

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Annual Production by Type etc.Mean Costs of ElectricityCosts of Electricity: Produced within Region DK-DCosts of Electricity DK-D: Import Costs included (external surplus not included)Costs of Electricity by Type

Annual Electricity Production by Type with CollectiveDemand, Transport, Surplus and Costs of Electricity

Annual Electricity Production by Type with CollectiveDemand, Transport, Surplus and Costs of Electricity


Base Scenario: Today's Costs for all Components

not allowed

Today's Costs for all Components

Only Technology Available Now

Cost of Electricity Production in Base Scenario (including: Production, HVDC Transmission and Storage)

CoE €ct/kWh Relation of Costs to National Income of EU-15 & Norway CoE of GDP

Today‘s Expenses for Electricity of GDP (Germany today > 3%)

Thereof for Production of GDP

Costs difference BS Today of GDP

Further Progress in Renewable Technology => Cost Reduction > 30%

=> A future renewable electricity supply could produce cheaper electricity than our current conventional system.






Further Progress in Renewable Technology => Cost Reduction > 30%
















CoE €ct/kWh

Cost of Electricity (CoE) for Base Scenario (BS)and National Economies


Prices at EEX: German-Baseload-Cal-07 already exceeded 6 €ct/kWh

Annual Electricity Production by Type, and Costs of Electricity different Scenarios


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BiomassHydrogen Fuel CellEnergy TowersGeothermal PPGFCC PPSEGSPhotovoltaicHydropowerWind LandWind offshoreEl. Costs D-DkEl. Costs ØEl. Consumption

Basic conclusions from the scenarios


Also the cost of electricity of a fully renewable electricity supply would be quite reasonable.

Costs for backup and HVDC – lines would not dominate.

Backup and storage are existent.

The bigger the catchment area the better temporal behaviour.

There are enough renewables for all needs.

The grid must be reinforced.

Now politics and economy are responsible, now they must act!

International Electricity Supply With Renewable Energies:What is happening towards the Renewable Supergrid


2007 the Swiss parliament discusses the cooperation with Germany and France and 2008 the German ministries of economy discuss cooperation with Switzerland to export offshore wind energy to Switzerland and get backup from Swiss hydropower.

2008 as a step towards the Mediterranean union the EU discusses the import of renewable energies from North Africa.

2008 the 17th Baltic Sea Parliamentary Conference (BSPC) promotes the development of a European ultra-high voltage DC transmission network for greater use of renewable energies.

Article 9 of the DIRECTIVE 2009/28/EC of the European Parliament and of the Council on the promotion of the use of energy from renewable sources regulates how renewable electricity could be imported from non EU countries to the EU. In June 2009 Desertec Industrial Initiative – (DII) was founded – amongst the Founders were Munich Re, Siemens, Deutsche Bank the German Ministry for Economy and the Club of Rome and announced to invest 400 Billion € till 2050 in the export of solar electricity from Africa to Europe.

2010 EU energy Commissioner Günther Oettinger promotes a European feed-in-system and feed-in-tariffs which also aim to realize renewable imports from Africa.

Climate change is often seen as one of the biggest challenges mankind has

ever been faced with. But the chances are that it is negligence rather than

the practical infeasibility of the problem which will cause us real trouble.

Thank you for your attention

Gregor Czisch

Transnational Renewables Consulting (TNRC)

[email protected]

+49-163-826-7921

Documents

The Supergrid: 100% Renewable Electricity Supply for Europe and its Neighborhood Optimal sustainable solution for climate protection: Transfer to US-American