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Presentation OutlinePresentation Outline Background to the Strategic Direction What informs the NDPII Strategic Direction NDPII Strategic Direction
Theme Objectives Strategies Development Priorities Preliminary Macroeconomic strategy
1.0 Background to the strategic Direction1.0 Background to the strategic Direction In 2007, the Government of Uganda adopted the
Comprehensive National Development Planning Framework (CNDPF)
It embodies long, medium and short term development planning at various levels of national administration.
To operationalise CNDPF, Uganda Vision 2040 was produced with an aim of transforming Uganda from a peasant and low-income country to a competitive upper middle –income country by 2040
Background Cont’dBackground Cont’dConceptually, The Uganda Vision 2040 revolves around
strengthening the fundamentals(Infrastructure, Human Capital etc) so as to harness the abundant opportunities(Agriculture, Tourism, minerals etc).
To achieve the Vision aspirations, NDPI (2010/11-2014/15) has been implemented and is ending in this FY.
NDPII is under formulation
2.What informs NDPII strategic Direction?2.What informs NDPII strategic Direction?
The Uganda Vision 2040The NDPI Mid-Term ReviewRegional and International Development Contexts
EAC Monetary Union ProtocolsAfrica Agenda 2063The Post 2015 Sustainable Development Agenda
2.1NDPII Prioritization Framework2.1NDPII Prioritization Framework
Hhd
NDPII PRIORITISED
AREAS
Agriculture, Mineral, Tourism,
Infrastructure Human Capital
Development
UGANDA
VISION 2040
NDPII Theme
OBJECTIVES & TARGETS
(MACRO)
SECTORAL INVESTMENT
INTERVENTIONS
FINANCING
(GOVT –MTEF, PRIVATE
SECTOR, PPPs)
SDPs & LGDPs
PIP
NDP1 (MTR)
RESULTS
DEVELOPMENT PRIORITIES:
12 Agricultural Enterprises 5 Mineral Products;
10 Tourism Products
Infrastructure Human Capital Development
VALUE CHAIN
ANALYSIS
2.2 STRATEGIC DIRECTION: Theme and Objectives
Theme “Strengthening Uganda’s competitiveness for Sustainable Wealth creation, employment and inclusive growth”.
Objectives
1. Increase sustainable production, productivity and value addition in key primary growth drivers
2. Increase the stock and quality of strategic infrastructure to accelerate the country’s competitiveness
3. Enhance human capital development
4. Strengthen mechanisms for quality, effective and efficient service delivery
2.3 NDPII Strategies Increase competiveness and positioning the country to
benefit from regional and global integrationValue addition for increased export earnings and
employment. Strengthen the private sector with strong local participation
in the quasi-market approach. Investment in Infrastructure through fiscal expansion.Fast tracking of skills development through reforms in
education and training curricular. Strengthening institutions/ institutional framework
(especially accountability) to increase efficiency in resource utilisation.
2.4 Development Priorities
Agriculture The largely subsistence nature of agriculture requires
urgent need to invest in increased commercial production and productivity enhancement.
Prioritized enterprises: Cotton, Coffee, Tea, Maize, Rice, Cassava, Beans, Fish, Beef, Milk, Citrus and Bananas.
Uganda’s Agricultural Value Chain Focuses on; Production, Transportation, Storage,
Processing and Marketing and Distribution
Development Priorities Cont’d
Tourism Justification Tourism Value Chain
Focuses on; pre-visit activities, international and local transportation, information and reception services, hospitality industry, excursions, as well as, tourists’ attractions and amenities.
Development Priorities Cont’dMineral Development
Justification Mineral Development Value Chain
Focuses on; exploration, mining, mineral processing, smelting and refining, as well as, value addition
Development Priorities Cont’d
Infrastructure Transport
Standard Gauge Railway Strategic roads Water Transport
Energy solar, wind, geothermal, biomass, and hydropower, so as
to increase power generation
Development Priorities
Human Capital Development Twin-track approach - long-term and short-term
Long-term focus: Increasing quality and quantity of basic education (primary to
secondary). Provision of appropriate skills development as needed in the
economy. Reducing fertility (to attain a more favourable age structure), Reducing maternal and infant mortality, thereby raising the life
expectancy Increasing the mean years of schooling (to keep pupils, particularly
girls, in school for fertility reduction); Improvement of nutrition outcomes especially for women of
reproductive age and children below 5-years
Development Priorities Cont’d
Human Capital Development Short-term focus:
Provision of technical and specialized skills especially for the youth who have either completed tertiary training or dropped out of primary and secondary education.
Increasing the contraceptive prevalence rate Reduction in the number of maternal deaths Reduction in number of cases and deaths due to malaria
especially among children and pregnant mothers; and
2.5 Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy2.5 Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy
Growth will be driven by export growth oriented productivity changes and public investment, at a conservative average rate of about 8 percent.
Infrastructure spending will be the major driver for the fiscal deficit peaking at 9% of GDP by 2017/18
Domestic resource mobilization will be a corner stone for the next NDP, particularly focusing on raising corporation tax revenues, widening the VAT coverage and improving efficiency of tax collection
Oil revenues are expected to initially be about 0.5% of GDP in 2018/19 and gradually increase over the years.
Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy Preliminary Macroeconomic Strategy Cont’dCont’d
Expenditures are expected to peak to 23-24% of GDP owing to infrastructure expenditure in the critical years of the NDP; Based on the MTR findings, NDPII will sequence spending priorities
Monetary policy will be guided by the desire to keep macroeconomic stability by maintaining inflation between 5-10%.
External concessional and semi-concessional financing will remain the key sources for borrowing over the medium-term