12
Election jitters helped to push the market down during October, with the iShares DJ U.S. ETF (IYY) down 1.5% through October 26. The SSR tracking portfolio also lost some ground during October, down 1.4% month to date. By the time you read this, we will be less than two weeks away from the U.S. presidential election. As we noted last month, the impend- ing election could lead to greater volatility in the stock market. While volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), did climb to start the month, it has fallen nearly 20% from its peak on October 13. Many analysts believe the outcome of the election has al- ready been priced into the market. However, if the results don’t turn out as predicted, expect a swift Volume 14 Issue 11 re-allocation of capital in the days following November 8. See page 12 for more on the election and the stock market. As we enter the heart of earnings season for companies with a fiscal quarter that closed at the end of September, corporate headlines will most likely be driving the market in the near term. So far this month, through the close of October 26, 18 of the 36 SSR com- panies have announced their quar- terly results. Only one—PACCAR Inc. (Group 2: PCAR)—fell short of its consensus quarterly earnings estimate. Fifteen posted positive earnings surprises while the other two reported earnings that were in line with their consensus estimate. The median earnings surprise for these 18 companies is +4.9%. Large-cap growth stocks had the strongest showing in October, as the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) posted a 1.3% loss through October 26. In contrast, small-cap stocks fared poorly on a relative basis, as the iShares Core S&P Small- Cap ETF (IJR) slid 3.8% and the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Growth ETF (IJT) fell 4.5% month to date. Year to date, however, value is still dominating across all market-cap segments, a reversal from last year. Small-cap value is the strongest style thus far for 2016, as the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 value ETF (IJS) has added 11.8%. Breadth, a measure of the overall direction of a group of stocks, for the SSR portfolio was negative in October, as 15 SSR stocks were up and 21 were down through October 25 (one was unchanged). The port- folio was led by Alaska Air Group Inc. (Group 2: ALK), which posted a 9.9% gain. Alaska Air’s monthly performance also helped Group 2 stocks turn in the best perfor- mance on average for October. Eight of the 11 stocks in Group 2 were up for the month. No Changes for November None of the existing SSR November 2016 The Stock Superstars Report illustrates how to build and manage a well-diversified portfolio with controlled risk. Our goal is to create a portfolio that provides investment information and reflects an approach consistent with current research findings. www.stocksuperstars.com SSR Phone Hotline: 866-801-2576 “The American Association of Individual Investors is an independent nonprofit corporation formed in 1978 for the purpose of assisting individuals in becoming effective managers of their own assets through programs of education, information and research.” In This Issue Portfolio Alerts This Month.................... 2 Performance of SSR ........................... 3 SSR Stocks in the News........................ 4 Recent Earnings Announcements .............. 5 The Current SSR Portfolio ..................... 6 In-Depth Stock Reports Domino’s Pizza, Inc. ............... 8 Washington Federal Inc. ............ 9 Photronics, Inc. ................... 10 Delta Air Lines, Inc. ................ 11 Portfolio Corner .............................. 12 Next Publication Date: December 2, 2016 AAII is in the process of changing to a new opera- tions and website system that will affect your login to StockSuperstars.com. Please go to www.aaii.com/my- account to make sure we have your proper email address in our files so that you can receive new log-in instructions when necessary. This will ensure that your online access to content is not interrupted during the transition.

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Page 1: The Stock Superstars Report illustrates how to build and ...€¦ · You can use the broker of your choice, but we recommend a dis-count broker to keep commission costs down. (Scottrade,

Election jitters helped to push the market down during October, with the iShares DJ U.S. ETF (IYY) down 1.5% through October 26. The SSR tracking portfolio also lost some ground during October, down 1.4% month to date.

By the time you read this, we will be less than two weeks away from the U.S. presidential election. As we noted last month, the impend-ing election could lead to greater volatility in the stock market. While volatility, as measured by the CBOE Volatility Index (VIX), did climb to start the month, it has fallen nearly 20% from its peak on October 13. Many analysts believe the outcome of the election has al-ready been priced into the market. However, if the results don’t turn out as predicted, expect a swift

Volume 14Issue 11

re-allocation of capital in the days following November 8. See page 12 for more on the election and the stock market.

As we enter the heart of earnings season for companies with a fiscal quarter that closed at the end of September, corporate headlines will most likely be driving the market in the near term. So far this month, through the close of October 26, 18 of the 36 SSR com-panies have announced their quar-terly results. Only one—PACCAR Inc. (Group 2: PCAR)—fell short of its consensus quarterly earnings estimate. Fifteen posted positive earnings surprises while the other two reported earnings that were in line with their consensus estimate. The median earnings surprise for these 18 companies is +4.9%.

Large-cap growth stocks had the strongest showing in October, as the iShares S&P 500 Growth ETF (IVW) posted a 1.3% loss through October

26. In contrast, small-cap stocks fared poorly on a relative basis, as the iShares Core S&P Small-Cap ETF (IJR) slid 3.8% and the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 Growth ETF (IJT) fell 4.5% month to date. Year to date, however, value is still dominating across all market-cap segments, a reversal from last year. Small-cap value is the strongest style thus far for 2016, as the iShares S&P SmallCap 600 value ETF (IJS) has added 11.8%.

Breadth, a measure of the overall direction of a group of stocks, for the SSR portfolio was negative in October, as 15 SSR stocks were up and 21 were down through October 25 (one was unchanged). The port-folio was led by Alaska Air Group Inc. (Group 2: ALK), which posted a 9.9% gain. Alaska Air’s monthly performance also helped Group 2 stocks turn in the best perfor-mance on average for October. Eight of the 11 stocks in Group 2 were up for the month.

No Changes for NovemberNone of the existing SSR

November 2016

The Stock Superstars Report illustrates how to build and manage a well-diversified portfolio with controlled risk. Our goal is to create a portfolio that provides investment information and reflects an approach consistent with current research findings.

www.stocksuperstars.comSSR Phone Hotline: 866-801-2576

“The American Association of Individual Investors is an independent nonprofit corporation formed in 1978 for the purpose of assisting individuals in becoming effective managers of their own assets through programs of education, information and research.”

In This IssuePortfolio Alerts This Month . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 2Performance of SSR . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 3SSR Stocks in the News. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 4Recent Earnings Announcements . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 5The Current SSR Portfolio . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 6In-Depth Stock Reports Domino’s Pizza, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 8 Washington Federal Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . 9 Photronics, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 10 Delta Air Lines, Inc. . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 11Portfolio Corner . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . . 12

Next Publication Date: December 2, 2016

AAII is in the process of changing to a new opera-tions and website system that will affect your login to StockSuperstars.com. Please go to www.aaii.com/my-account to make sure we have your proper email address in our files so that you can receive new log-in instructions when necessary. This will ensure that your online access to content is not interrupted during the transition.

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2 November 2016

Stock Superstars Report

3 November 2016

holdings were in clear violation of the portfolio deletion rules that exist for each of the four portfo-lio groups. As such, there are no changes being made to the SSR tracking portfolio this month.

Recently we have received a number of questions from new subscribers asking how to go about investing in the Stock Superstars Portfolio. How much does some-one need to invest? Do all of the stocks need to be purchased at once? Alternatively, can fewer than the total 36 stocks be purchased? If one is buying less than the entire portfolio, how does one choose which stocks to purchase? There-fore, we take the opportunity here to review a few of the portfolio guidelines.

Investing in the Entire Portfolio

If your goal is to mimic the performance of the SSR portfolio,

you should start by investing equal dollar amounts in all 36 stocks. Furthermore, you would replace stocks in your portfolio when ad-dition and deletion alerts are sent out. This is not a requirement, but doing so will allow you to most closely match the returns you see reported in the newsletter. How-ever, keep in mind that even if you buy all 36 stocks, you will not have the same performance as the SSR tracking portfolio. Over time, the weightings of the stocks held in the SSR tracking portfolio have changed as stocks are removed and that money is reinvested in new portfolio additions. Since new money is not added to the tracking portfolio, there will be times when added positions are below the average size. Likewise, if a big win-ner is removed, cash may be held even after adding an above-average position.

The more stocks you hold, the

greater your portfolio’s diversification will be and the lower its risk. A primary goal of the SSR portfo-lio is to include stocks from a variety of industries with differing valu-ation, growth

and market capitalization charac-teristics. This increases the odds of being invested in the right type of stock at the right time.

You can use the broker of your choice, but we recommend a dis-count broker to keep commission costs down. (Scottrade, Charles Schwab, Fidelity, TD Ameritrade and E*Trade are consistently named as among the most popular firms by your fellow AAII mem-bers.) Many brokers charge $10 or less for a buy or sell transaction and, depending on your needs, lower prices can be found.

Holding Fewer Than All 36 Stocks

If you choose to hold fewer than all 36 SSR stocks, we recom-mend that you invest equal dollar amounts in at least 16 stocks. Equal dollars spread across at least 16 stocks helps to provide diversifica-tion and reduce the risk of a single

Portfolio Alerts This Month

Published monthly by the American Association of Individual Investors 625 N. Michigan Ave., Chicago, IL 60611 312-280-0170, www.aaii.com. Annual SSR subscription, $199.

AAII’s Stock Superstars Report® (SSR) is not a registered investment adviser or a broker/dealer. This report is issued solely for informational purposes and

should not be construed as an offer to sell or the solicitation of an offer to buy securities. The opinions and analyses included herein are based on sources believed to be reliable and written in good faith, but no representation or warranty, expressed or implied, is made as to their accuracy, completeness, timeliness, or correctness. Neither we nor our information providers shall be liable for any errors or inaccuracies, regardless of cause, or the lack of

timeliness of, or any delay or interruptions in, the transmission thereof to the users. All information contained in this report should be independently verified with the companies mentioned.

© American Association of Individual Investors, 2016. The Stock Superstars Report is a registered trademark and service mark of the American Association of Individual Investors. This publication may not be reproduced in whole or in part by any means without prior written consent.

“The American Association of Individual Investors is an independent nonprofit corporation formed in 1978 for the purpose of assisting individuals in becoming effective managers of their own assets through programs of education, information and research.”

Printed in the U.S.A.

November Portfolio Additions

Group Company (Exchange: Ticker) Latest Price3 Yr Risk

Index Descriptionno portfolio additions for November

Portfolio Deletions Since Last Monthly Issue

Date Priceno portfolio deletions since last monthly issue

GroupPortfolio Deletion Alert G/L Since

Purchase

iShares DJ U.S. (IYY) Change

Since Purchase

Portfolio Addition Alert

DateCompany (Exchange: Ticker)

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2 November 2016 November 2016 33 November 2016

Stock Superstars Report

company hurting the portfolio. This smaller portfolio should be made up of four stocks from each of the four groups—specifically, the four most recently added stocks from each group. Spreading the invest-ment across four different strate-gies helps with diversification. Selecting more recent additions makes it more likely that stocks will have the characteristics that are the most reflective of the strat-egy that each group is designed to follow. It is also a good idea to check the relative strength since purchase of a stock under consid-eration. If two stocks have been added at roughly the same time but one has a significantly better rela-tive strength value, you may wish to use that as a tie breaker.

How Much Do You Need?Deciding whether to buy all 36

stocks or a smaller number, such as 16, depends on the amount of money you wish to allocate to

following the SSR portfolio. The more money you invest, the lower your transaction costs as a per-centage of the portfolio will be for each stock. When deciding how much money to commit to follow-ing the SSR portfolio, keep in mind that buying stocks in very small value amounts will lead to higher transaction costs as a percentage of your portfolio’s value. These higher costs will, over time, negatively impact your performance.

The typical actively managed mu-tual fund has an expense ratio of 1.5%. The expense ratio is the total cost of buying and selling (in this case, commissions) divided by the total amount of money invested. If you are investing in a 16-stock portfolio using Scottrade, with its $7 commissions, it would cost you $112 to buy your initial SSR portfo-lio (16 × $7). To achieve a 1.5% expense ratio (or lower), you would have to invest at least $7,467 ($112 ÷ 1.5%).

Invest Equal Dollar AmountsAs mentioned earlier, when

starting to follow the SSR port-folio, plan on investing an equal dollar amount in each stock. This is essential if you want to diver-sify your holdings. Do not worry about buying fewer or more than 100 shares (an “odd lot”), as there are no additional transaction costs to doing so. You should round up or down to the nearest full share when calculating how much to al-locate to each stock.

The SSR portfolio is not rebal-anced to keep the amounts in-vested in each stock equal unless a position exceeds 2.5 times the average size. Rather, when buying stocks to replace those that have been sold from your portfolio, invest in amounts that are propor-tionate to the average holding size of your overall SSR portfolio. If you find that this results in hav-ing a little cash left over, con-sider holding it to invest in those

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

$200,000

$225,000

$250,000

$275,000

$300,000

$325,000

2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Growth of $100,000 Stock Superstars Portfolio

iShares DJ U.S. (IYY)

October -1.4% -1.5%2016 YTD 5.6% 5.8%

2015 -3.1% 0.5%2014 4.4% 12.8%2013 44.0% 32.6%2012 16.2% 16.1%2011 4.3% 1.1%2010 19.5% 16.4%2009 34.3% 28.5%2008 -43.5% -37.2%2007 5.5% 5.8%2006 3.0% 15.3%2005 -0.3% 6.1%2004 14.3% 11.8%2003 40.2% 30.4%2002 0.5% -22.1%

From Inception 195.2% 158.0%Risk Index (3 Yr) 1.11 1.00

Std. Dev. (3 Yr) 12.1% 10.8%Performance as of 10/26/2016.

Performance

Ret

urn

Ris

k

Stock Superstars

Performance of SSR

The Stock Superstars portfolio started at the beginning of 2002. The SSR portfolio is run as if managed by a subscriber and includes delays in reaction time to SSR alerts, actual commissions and bid-ask spreads.

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4 November 2016

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5 November 2016

year-over-year increase in revenue passenger miles (RPMs), a 1.8% year-over-year increase in available seat miles (ASMs) and a 3.1% year-over-year increase in passengers boarded.

(10/19/2016) Delta Air Lines has reached a new contract agreement in principle with its pilots, after 20 months of talks and a nine-month stand-off. Delta management described the deal as an “industry-leading package of pay, benefits and work rules.” The pilots will receive a 30% pay hike over the next four years, which includes an 18% increase in year one, followed by incremental raises through 2019. The deal still has to be approved by the union leaders, then voted on by the pilots. Union leader John Malone said in a statement, however, that “it looks like the deal will get union approval.” MetLife Inc. (MET)

(10/07/2016) MetLife announced that Brighthouse Financial Inc. filed a registration statement on Form 10 with the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), which is a key step in MetLife’s plan to sepa-rate into two independent publicly traded companies. Brighthouse Financial and MetLife are preparing for a spin-off transaction, but the ultimate form and timing of a separation will be influenced by a number of fac-tors, including regulatory considerations and econom-ic conditions. The company did say that it continues to evaluate other separation alternatives, including a sale or an initial public offering. The first step in the separation transaction is expected to take place in the

Alaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK)(10/04/2016) On a combined basis, Alaska Air

Group reported a 7.4% increase in traffic on a 4.2% increase in capacity for September 2016 compared to September 2015. The company’s main airline, Alaska Airlines, reported a 6.6% increase in traffic on a 3.2% increase in capacity when also compared to Septem-ber 2015.

(10/20/2016) The Wall Street Journal reported that the U.S. Justice Department is making Alaska Air Group and Virgin America (VA) wait longer for approval of their $2.6 billion merger plan. According to the article, Alaska’s chief executive Brad Tilden said that while he’s confident the department will rule in his favor, “there is a process at play” and “we’re not quite there yet.” In addition, he declined to comment on whether Alaska has a backup plan if the merger isn’t approved.

Virgin America may have to pay Alaska Air Group a $78.5 million breakup fee if the deal is terminated.Delta Air Lines Inc. (DAL)

(10/04/2016) Delta Air Lines reported on its financial and operating performance for September 2016. Consolidated passenger unit revenue (PRASM) declined 3% year over year, as close-in domestic yield pressures moderated slightly with the implementa-tion of lower fall capacity levels. Delta continued to face a transatlantic supply-demand imbalance and headwinds from prior-year yen hedge gains in the month. Other key performance metrics include a 1.4%

SSR Stocks in the News

months when the proceeds from a sell transaction are less than the average holding size. Conversely, if you don’t have enough free cash to invest the average holding amount, any cash available should be invested equally among the new additions.

Keep in mind that over time, the size of each position will vary in accordance with each stock’s relative performance. You adjust for this difference each time a new stock is added to the portfolio by calculating the average holding size and then investing that amount

into the new position. In other words, each new addition reflects the average position for all stocks held in the portfolio at that time.

More in the SSR User’s Guide“The Stock Superstars Report:

A User’s Guide” provides more detailed information on how to start and continue following the SSR portfolio. It also answers other questions you may have, such as whether or not to use stop-loss orders. Finally, the guide provides a comprehensive overview of the strategies used for

the SSR portfolio, information on the weekly alerts and an explana-tion of how portfolio changes are announced. It is available to all subscribers and can be accessed at www.stocksuperstars.com/guide.

SSR PortfolioFor 2016 year to date, the SSR

tracking portfolio has gained 5.6%, while the iShares DJ U.S. ETF (IYY) is up 5.8%. Since incep-tion, the SSR portfolio has gained 195.2%, while the iShares DJ U.S. index ETF has gained 158.0%. •

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4 November 2016 November 2016 55 November 2016

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first half of 2017. Microsoft Corporation (MSFT)

(09/30/2016) The Wall Street Journal reported that Salesforce.com (CRM) will press regulators in the U.S. and Europe to block Microsoft’s acquisition of Linke-dIn Corp. (LNKD). Salesforce was a major competitor in the bidding process for LinkedIn, which Micro-soft eventually agreed to purchase for $26.2 billion. According to the article, Salesforce is arguing that market competition will be hurt through Microsoft’s access to LinkedIn’s accrued social-networking data. Microsoft responded with affirmation of the deal’s legality, which has already passed regulatory gates in the U.S., Canada and Brazil. Pfizer Inc. (PFE)

(09/26/2016) The Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer will not split its business into two separate companies. Prior to the canceled merger with Allergan PLC (AGN), Pfizer was working on dividing its busi-nesses into one focused on cash-rich older products and one focused on researching new patent-protected drugs. According to the article, the company spent at least $600 million in preparation for the split.

(10/06/2016) The Wall Street Journal reported that Pfizer agreed to sell its infusion systems business Hospira to ICU Medical Inc. (ICUI) in a $1 billion cash-and-stock deal. Pfizer will receive $600 mil-lion in cash and $400 million in newly issued shares of ICU’s stock, giving Pfizer a 16.6% stake in ICU. Hospira Infu-sion Systems is ICU’s largest customer. The infusion systems business is a segment of drug maker Hospira Inc., which Pfizer acquired in February 2016 for $16 billion.

(10/13/2016) Reuters report-ed that Pfizer has lost an appeal in a U.K. patent case regarding its drug Lyrica. Pfizer sought to acquire continued patent pro-tection over the generic version of Lyrica, known as pregabalin, which garners the company $5 billion a year. Pfizer’s current patent will expire in July 2017, but the company plans to take

this ruling to the U.K. Supreme Court. Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM)

Michael Walkley, a Canaccord Genuity analyst, said that Samsung’s Galaxy Note 7 recall will have a “slight impact to near-term estimates” for Qualcomm, poten-tially driving more business toward Apple’s (AAPL) iPhone family.

(10/21/2016) Qualcomm has agreed to acquire Dutch chipmaker NXP Semiconductors NV (NXPI) for about $110 per share in cash, valuing NXP at ap-proximately $37 billion, according to Reuters. NXP produces chips for air bags, automotive infotainment systems, passports and identification cards, smart-phone payment systems and transit cards. If the deal is completed, Qualcomm would become an end-to-end chip supplier to the automotive market, and the firm would become the second-largest chip company by revenue, after Intel (INTC). Visa Inc. (V)

(10/17/2016) Visa declared an 18% increase to its dividend, from $0.14 per share to $0.165 per share. The dividend is payable on December 6, 2016, to shareholders of record as of November 18, 2016. The stock will trade ex-dividend on November 16, 2016. •

Recent Earnings AnnouncementsDate Reported Expected Surprise

Stock (Ticker) Reported Earnings Earnings %Group 1A.O. Smith Corp. (AOS) Oct 26 $0.47 $0.45 4.4%Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) Oct 18 $0.96 $0.90 6.7%Edwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) Oct 25 $0.68 $0.68 0.0%NewMarket Corp. (NEU) Oct 26 $6.00 $5.22 14.9%Visa Inc. (V) Oct 24 $0.78 $0.73 6.8%Group 2Alaska Air Group (ALK) Oct 20 $2.20 $2.09 5.3%First American Financial Corp. (FAF) Oct 20 $0.91 $0.88 3.4%JPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) Oct 14 $1.58 $1.39 13.7%Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) Oct 20 $0.76 $0.68 11.8%PACCAR Inc. (PCAR) Oct 25 $0.98 $1.00 -2.0%UnitedHealth Group (UNH) Oct 18 $2.17 $2.08 4.3%U.S. Bancorp (USB) Oct 19 $0.84 $0.83 1.2%Washington Federal Inc. (WAFD) Oct 19 $0.49 $0.44 11.4%Group 3Ethan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETH) Oct 25 $0.43 $0.43 0.0%Gentex Corporation (GNTX) Oct 20 $0.32 $0.30 6.7%Group 4Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) Oct 13 $1.70 $1.65 3.0%Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) Oct 6 $1.31 $1.12 17.0%Reinsurance Group of America (RGA) Oct 26 $2.46 $2.38 3.4%Figures are rounded.

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7 November 2016

Rel Strength Since Purchase – Price performance of a stock compared to the iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF (IYY) since the stock was purchased for the SSR portfolio.Rel Strength % Rank – An indication of how a stock has performed relative to all U.S.-listed stocks over the stated time period. A rank of 75% reflects performance that surpassed 75% of all stocks over the period—or that places the stock within the top 25% of the universe.Risk Index – The 36-month annualized standard deviation of return for the stock divided by the 36-month annualized standard deviation of return for the

iShares Dow Jones U.S. ETF (IYY). The baseline value for the index is 1.00. Values above 1.00 indicate greater risk than the index. Values below 1.00 indicate less risk than the index. P/E Ratio (TTM) – The current stock price divided by diluted earnings per share from continuing operations for the trailing 12 months.EPS (TTM) – The amount of fully diluted earnings from continuing operations reported by a company for the most recent 12-month period (TTM) on a per share basis.EPS (Est Current Year) – The average consensus earnings estimate for the current fiscal year.

Rel Price- AvgSSR Strength EPS Price- to- DailyPur- Latest Since Since Risk P/E (Est to- Book- Market Dollar

chase Price One Pur- Purchase Index Ratio EPS Current Hist Est Hist Sales Value Div Cap VolumeCompany (Exchange: Ticker) Date Price Price (10/25/16) Month chase (Index) 4 Wk 52 Wk (3 Yr) (TTM) (TTM) Year) EPS EPS Sales Ratio Ratio Yield (Mil) (Mil) DescriptionGroup 1: Profitability & Relative StrengthBurlington Stores Inc. (BURL) 6/24/16 $63.53 $63.16 $74.83 -7.6% 18.5% 1.12 21% 92% 2.77 31.9 $2.35 $2.98 26.2% 18.0% 6.7% 0.99 nmf 0.0% $5,361 $90.6 discount retailer of branded apparelVisa Inc. (V) 1/29/16 $74.49 $73.53 $82.03 -0.8% 11.6% 0.98 53% 61% 1.62 40.6 $2.02 $3.29 na 16.5% 10.4% nmf nmf 0.8% $196,349 $652.4 payment processing and credit card companyA.O. Smith Corp. (AOS) 12/4/15 $39.47 $38.73 $46.74 -5.4% 20.7% 1.16 31% 82% 2.00 26.5 $1.77 $1.82 38.5% 11.5% 11.2% 3.18 5.5 1.0% $8,442 $30.9 manufactures water heating equipEdwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) 7/31/15 $76.08 $75.57 $113.68 -5.7% 50.4% 1.49 31% 91% 2.13 47.0 $2.42 $2.88 19.7% 17.2% 11.5% 8.79 9.8 0.0% $24,913 $155.6 develops cardiac products & technologiesDomino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) 12/6/13 $69.78 $69.21 $164.89 8.6% 138.3% 2.01 88% 92% 1.72 41.0 $4.02 $4.25 19.2% 17.8% 7.1% 3.31 nmf 0.9% $8,007 $111.7 pizza delivery companyNewMarket Corp. (NEU) 10/28/11 $198.16 $197.49 $400.97 -6.6% 103.0% 1.19 32% 65% 1.66 19.8 $20.24 $20.30 10.0% 4.2% 3.6% 2.31 11.0 1.6% $4,808 $13.6 manufactures & blends petroleum additivesGroup 2: Value & Financial StrengthSkyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) 7/29/16 $66.02 $66.04 $78.08 2.5% 18.2% 1.20 83% 54% 2.78 15.5 $5.04 $5.53 40.4% 17.0% 24.9% 4.42 4.2 1.4% $14,717 $210.4 produces analog semiconductorsCisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) 1/29/16 $23.79 $23.24 $30.34 -4.4% 30.6% 1.15 40% 61% 1.86 14.4 $2.11 $2.43 12.6% 9.3% 2.6% 3.10 2.4 3.4% $152,737 $644.2 delivers integrated network and internet solutionsFirst American Financial Corp. (FAF) 8/28/15 $38.82 $38.14 $39.62 0.9% 3.9% 0.96 51% 55% 1.59 12.8 $3.10 $3.02 16.9% na 5.7% 0.81 1.4 3.4% $4,320 $27.0 property title insurance & related servicesPACCAR Inc. (PCAR) 5/29/15 $63.56 $63.43 $54.80 -6.8% -13.6% 0.86 29% 49% 2.16 29.3 $1.87 $3.98 29.3% 4.4% 13.2% 1.07 2.9 1.8% $19,749 $112.5 designs, mfrs & supports light-duty to heavy-duty trucksJPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 2/27/15 $61.28 $61.84 $68.80 3.3% 11.2% 1.10 78% 64% 1.74 11.9 $5.80 $5.87 8.7% 3.8% -4.4% 4.53 1.1 2.8% $248,757 $950.6 financial service and banking institutionWashington Federal Inc. (WAFD) 8/1/14 $20.69 $20.74 $27.20 1.9% 31.1% 1.19 72% 66% 1.68 15.2 $1.79 $1.80 12.3% 10.0% -3.6% 4.56 1.2 2.1% $2,453 $10.0 savings association; WA, OR, ID, AZ, UT, NV, NM, TXAlaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) 12/6/13 $36.76 $36.38 $72.40 9.9% 99.0% 1.67 89% 39% 2.70 10.1 $7.14 $7.02 30.9% 3.8% 7.9% 1.54 3.1 1.5% $9,061 $118.6 commercial airline: Alaska Airlines & Horizon AirUnitedHealth Group (UNH) 8/31/12 $54.30 $54.29 $143.78 2.7% 164.8% 1.75 76% 80% 1.44 21.2 $6.77 $8.01 8.0% 15.4% 10.8% 0.77 3.7 1.7% $137,802 $429.9 diversified healthcare and well-being companyU.S. Bancorp (USB) 4/27/12 $32.29 $32.18 $43.84 2.2% 36.3% 0.90 76% 58% 1.23 13.6 $3.23 $3.24 12.8% 4.6% 0.4% 5.79 1.8 2.6% $75,342 $281.4 multi-state financial services holding companyMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT) 9/30/11 $24.89 $26.21 $60.99 5.9% 132.7% 1.27 83% 70% 2.19 29.2 $2.09 $2.96 -4.9% 9.4% 4.1% 5.56 6.8 2.6% $474,296 $1,638.6 Windows, business & consumer software & hardwarePfizer Inc. (PFE) 5/1/09 $13.58 $13.93 $32.28 -4.7% 131.7% 0.98 34% 43% 1.46 28.6 $1.13 $2.46 1.6% 6.2% -5.6% 3.75 3.1 3.7% $194,889 $673.7 global pharmaceutical companyGroup 3: GARP RevisionsKraft Heinz Co. (KHC) 9/30/16 $89.51 $89.05 $88.36 -1.3% -0.8% 1.00 52% 73% na 65.6 $1.35 $3.22 na 23.5% na 4.04 1.9 2.7% $108,261 $233.5 food & beverage companyEthan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETH) 2/26/16 $28.45 $29.75 $30.35 -2.9% 2.0% 0.95 31% 67% 2.70 15.2 $2.00 $2.08 14.6% 15.5% 3.2% 1.06 2.1 2.2% $858 $5.5 mfr & retailer of home furnishings & accessoriesPhotronics Inc. (PLAB) 1/8/16 $11.80 $11.96 $10.00 -3.0% -16.4% 0.73 44% 62% 2.44 12.4 $0.81 $0.55 8.0% na 4.3% 1.31 1.0 0.0% $685 $3.4 mfrs photomasks for semiconductor makersGentex Corporation (GNTX) 10/30/15 $16.39 $16.57 $16.77 -4.5% 1.2% 1.00 34% 57% 2.20 14.1 $1.19 $1.21 17.0% 11.4% 13.6% 2.90 2.6 2.1% $4,887 $34.9 automatic-dimming rearview mirrors & electronicsMEDNAX, Inc. (MD) 6/26/15 $75.07 $74.49 $65.43 -1.2% -12.2% 0.86 55% 37% 1.70 18.3 $3.58 $4.14 10.9% 14.6% 14.7% 2.02 2.4 0.0% $6,250 $35.6 provider of pediatric physician servicesToll Brothers Inc. (TOL) 5/1/15 $35.81 $35.87 $28.22 -5.5% -21.3% 0.77 38% 27% 2.31 12.2 $2.32 $2.50 150.7% 19.5% 22.8% 0.99 1.1 0.0% $4,717 $69.0 designs, builds, markets luxury homesFoot Locker, Inc. (FL) 1/9/15 $56.22 $52.15 $68.00 0.4% 30.4% 1.22 65% 59% 2.07 16.9 $4.03 $4.76 28.9% 9.1% 8.0% 1.21 3.5 1.6% $9,176 $143.5 global retailer of athletic shoes and apparelTetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK) 1/3/14 $27.63 $28.32 $38.60 8.8% 36.3% 1.17 88% 89% 1.97 107.2 $0.36 $1.88 -12.5% 11.5% 3.3% 1.22 2.6 0.9% $2,243 $11.6 natural resource, infrastructure, energy & environm't servsOmnicell, Inc. (OMCL) 8/30/13 $21.74 $24.00 $35.45 -7.4% 47.7% 1.16 27% 74% 2.20 91.4 $0.39 $1.58 41.8% 16.5% 16.9% 2.13 3.1 0.0% $1,298 $5.1 automated solutions for hospital medication managementGroup 4: Reasonably Priced GrowthAbbVie Inc. (ABBV) 9/30/16 $63.07 $63.20 $61.55 -2.4% -2.6% 0.98 38% 76% 1.89 17.6 $3.49 $4.82 3.5% 15.7% 7.9% 4.04 17.7 3.7% $99,537 $446.6 biopharmaceutical companyScripps Networks Interactive (SNI) 5/27/16 $63.62 $64.22 $65.19 2.7% 1.5% 1.00 81% 72% 2.44 11.1 $5.89 $5.14 14.5% 11.2% 9.9% 2.53 4.5 1.5% $8,530 $65.5 develops lifestyle-oriented content for TV & internetAir Methods Corp. (AIRM) 1/8/16 $37.89 $37.64 $27.90 -11.4% -25.9% 0.66 14% 23% 3.30 9.3 $2.98 $3.04 19.6% 17.5% 14.1% 0.93 1.8 0.0% $1,066 $11.2 provides air medical emergency transport servicesD.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) 12/4/15 $32.99 $32.22 $28.81 -4.6% -10.6% 0.86 34% 41% 2.31 12.8 $2.25 $2.38 21.4% 13.1% 19.7% 0.92 1.6 1.1% $10,904 $98.1 designs, builds & sells residential homesMagna International Inc. (MGA) 7/31/15 $54.36 $55.30 $40.53 -5.6% -26.7% 0.72 43% 26% 2.67 8.2 $4.95 $5.20 1.8% 13.6% 6.5% 0.46 1.7 2.5% $15,863 $56.5 supplier of automotive interior & exterior productsDelta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) 5/30/14 $40.77 $41.71 $41.21 4.7% -1.2% 0.91 83% 29% 2.55 6.7 $6.18 $5.56 51.6% 10.2% 5.1% 0.77 2.4 2.0% $30,982 $429.0 provides air transportation for passengers & cargo Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) 5/31/13 $63.48 $63.39 $67.71 -1.2% 6.8% 0.82 86% 72% 2.49 19.9 $3.41 $4.30 8.7% 10.5% 18.1% 4.36 3.3 3.1% $100,297 $594.9 semiconductors; wireless telecommunications products Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) 3/1/13 $36.56 $36.27 $81.45 -5.5% 124.6% 1.63 35% 30% 2.58 22.3 $3.65 $6.05 3.4% 15.0% 14.7% 1.47 2.3 0.0% $2,289 $19.3 consumer prods: Dr. Scholl's, Revlon, Sunbeam & OXOMetLife Inc. (MET) 9/28/12 $34.46 $34.45 $46.29 4.2% 34.4% 0.91 83% 40% 2.06 12.2 $3.80 $4.56 10.2% 8.6% 5.8% 0.74 0.6 3.5% $51,251 $318.9 insurance, annuities & employee benefit programsReinsurance Grp of America (RGA) 6/24/11 $59.90 $60.75 $107.98 0.0% 77.8% 1.10 55% 71% 1.20 12.7 $8.53 $9.54 0.8% 8.6% 4.8% 0.64 0.9 1.5% $6,930 $26.8 life & disability, annuity and financial reinsuranceData as of 10/25/2016. Source: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Thomson Reuters and I/B/E/S.

Gain/Loss

Portfolio AlertRel Strength Growth Rate

% Rank

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6 November 2016 November 2016 77 November 2016

Stock Superstars ReportRel Price- Avg

SSR Strength EPS Price- to- DailyPur- Latest Since Since Risk P/E (Est to- Book- Market Dollar

chase Price One Pur- Purchase Index Ratio EPS Current Hist Est Hist Sales Value Div Cap VolumeCompany (Exchange: Ticker) Date Price Price (10/25/16) Month chase (Index) 4 Wk 52 Wk (3 Yr) (TTM) (TTM) Year) EPS EPS Sales Ratio Ratio Yield (Mil) (Mil) DescriptionGroup 1: Profitability & Relative StrengthBurlington Stores Inc. (BURL) 6/24/16 $63.53 $63.16 $74.83 -7.6% 18.5% 1.12 21% 92% 2.77 31.9 $2.35 $2.98 26.2% 18.0% 6.7% 0.99 nmf 0.0% $5,361 $90.6 discount retailer of branded apparelVisa Inc. (V) 1/29/16 $74.49 $73.53 $82.03 -0.8% 11.6% 0.98 53% 61% 1.62 40.6 $2.02 $3.29 na 16.5% 10.4% nmf nmf 0.8% $196,349 $652.4 payment processing and credit card companyA.O. Smith Corp. (AOS) 12/4/15 $39.47 $38.73 $46.74 -5.4% 20.7% 1.16 31% 82% 2.00 26.5 $1.77 $1.82 38.5% 11.5% 11.2% 3.18 5.5 1.0% $8,442 $30.9 manufactures water heating equipEdwards Lifesciences Corp. (EW) 7/31/15 $76.08 $75.57 $113.68 -5.7% 50.4% 1.49 31% 91% 2.13 47.0 $2.42 $2.88 19.7% 17.2% 11.5% 8.79 9.8 0.0% $24,913 $155.6 develops cardiac products & technologiesDomino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) 12/6/13 $69.78 $69.21 $164.89 8.6% 138.3% 2.01 88% 92% 1.72 41.0 $4.02 $4.25 19.2% 17.8% 7.1% 3.31 nmf 0.9% $8,007 $111.7 pizza delivery companyNewMarket Corp. (NEU) 10/28/11 $198.16 $197.49 $400.97 -6.6% 103.0% 1.19 32% 65% 1.66 19.8 $20.24 $20.30 10.0% 4.2% 3.6% 2.31 11.0 1.6% $4,808 $13.6 manufactures & blends petroleum additivesGroup 2: Value & Financial StrengthSkyworks Solutions Inc. (SWKS) 7/29/16 $66.02 $66.04 $78.08 2.5% 18.2% 1.20 83% 54% 2.78 15.5 $5.04 $5.53 40.4% 17.0% 24.9% 4.42 4.2 1.4% $14,717 $210.4 produces analog semiconductorsCisco Systems, Inc. (CSCO) 1/29/16 $23.79 $23.24 $30.34 -4.4% 30.6% 1.15 40% 61% 1.86 14.4 $2.11 $2.43 12.6% 9.3% 2.6% 3.10 2.4 3.4% $152,737 $644.2 delivers integrated network and internet solutionsFirst American Financial Corp. (FAF) 8/28/15 $38.82 $38.14 $39.62 0.9% 3.9% 0.96 51% 55% 1.59 12.8 $3.10 $3.02 16.9% na 5.7% 0.81 1.4 3.4% $4,320 $27.0 property title insurance & related servicesPACCAR Inc. (PCAR) 5/29/15 $63.56 $63.43 $54.80 -6.8% -13.6% 0.86 29% 49% 2.16 29.3 $1.87 $3.98 29.3% 4.4% 13.2% 1.07 2.9 1.8% $19,749 $112.5 designs, mfrs & supports light-duty to heavy-duty trucksJPMorgan Chase & Co. (JPM) 2/27/15 $61.28 $61.84 $68.80 3.3% 11.2% 1.10 78% 64% 1.74 11.9 $5.80 $5.87 8.7% 3.8% -4.4% 4.53 1.1 2.8% $248,757 $950.6 financial service and banking institutionWashington Federal Inc. (WAFD) 8/1/14 $20.69 $20.74 $27.20 1.9% 31.1% 1.19 72% 66% 1.68 15.2 $1.79 $1.80 12.3% 10.0% -3.6% 4.56 1.2 2.1% $2,453 $10.0 savings association; WA, OR, ID, AZ, UT, NV, NM, TXAlaska Air Group, Inc. (ALK) 12/6/13 $36.76 $36.38 $72.40 9.9% 99.0% 1.67 89% 39% 2.70 10.1 $7.14 $7.02 30.9% 3.8% 7.9% 1.54 3.1 1.5% $9,061 $118.6 commercial airline: Alaska Airlines & Horizon AirUnitedHealth Group (UNH) 8/31/12 $54.30 $54.29 $143.78 2.7% 164.8% 1.75 76% 80% 1.44 21.2 $6.77 $8.01 8.0% 15.4% 10.8% 0.77 3.7 1.7% $137,802 $429.9 diversified healthcare and well-being companyU.S. Bancorp (USB) 4/27/12 $32.29 $32.18 $43.84 2.2% 36.3% 0.90 76% 58% 1.23 13.6 $3.23 $3.24 12.8% 4.6% 0.4% 5.79 1.8 2.6% $75,342 $281.4 multi-state financial services holding companyMicrosoft Corporation (MSFT) 9/30/11 $24.89 $26.21 $60.99 5.9% 132.7% 1.27 83% 70% 2.19 29.2 $2.09 $2.96 -4.9% 9.4% 4.1% 5.56 6.8 2.6% $474,296 $1,638.6 Windows, business & consumer software & hardwarePfizer Inc. (PFE) 5/1/09 $13.58 $13.93 $32.28 -4.7% 131.7% 0.98 34% 43% 1.46 28.6 $1.13 $2.46 1.6% 6.2% -5.6% 3.75 3.1 3.7% $194,889 $673.7 global pharmaceutical companyGroup 3: GARP RevisionsKraft Heinz Co. (KHC) 9/30/16 $89.51 $89.05 $88.36 -1.3% -0.8% 1.00 52% 73% na 65.6 $1.35 $3.22 na 23.5% na 4.04 1.9 2.7% $108,261 $233.5 food & beverage companyEthan Allen Interiors Inc. (ETH) 2/26/16 $28.45 $29.75 $30.35 -2.9% 2.0% 0.95 31% 67% 2.70 15.2 $2.00 $2.08 14.6% 15.5% 3.2% 1.06 2.1 2.2% $858 $5.5 mfr & retailer of home furnishings & accessoriesPhotronics Inc. (PLAB) 1/8/16 $11.80 $11.96 $10.00 -3.0% -16.4% 0.73 44% 62% 2.44 12.4 $0.81 $0.55 8.0% na 4.3% 1.31 1.0 0.0% $685 $3.4 mfrs photomasks for semiconductor makersGentex Corporation (GNTX) 10/30/15 $16.39 $16.57 $16.77 -4.5% 1.2% 1.00 34% 57% 2.20 14.1 $1.19 $1.21 17.0% 11.4% 13.6% 2.90 2.6 2.1% $4,887 $34.9 automatic-dimming rearview mirrors & electronicsMEDNAX, Inc. (MD) 6/26/15 $75.07 $74.49 $65.43 -1.2% -12.2% 0.86 55% 37% 1.70 18.3 $3.58 $4.14 10.9% 14.6% 14.7% 2.02 2.4 0.0% $6,250 $35.6 provider of pediatric physician servicesToll Brothers Inc. (TOL) 5/1/15 $35.81 $35.87 $28.22 -5.5% -21.3% 0.77 38% 27% 2.31 12.2 $2.32 $2.50 150.7% 19.5% 22.8% 0.99 1.1 0.0% $4,717 $69.0 designs, builds, markets luxury homesFoot Locker, Inc. (FL) 1/9/15 $56.22 $52.15 $68.00 0.4% 30.4% 1.22 65% 59% 2.07 16.9 $4.03 $4.76 28.9% 9.1% 8.0% 1.21 3.5 1.6% $9,176 $143.5 global retailer of athletic shoes and apparelTetra Tech, Inc. (TTEK) 1/3/14 $27.63 $28.32 $38.60 8.8% 36.3% 1.17 88% 89% 1.97 107.2 $0.36 $1.88 -12.5% 11.5% 3.3% 1.22 2.6 0.9% $2,243 $11.6 natural resource, infrastructure, energy & environm't servsOmnicell, Inc. (OMCL) 8/30/13 $21.74 $24.00 $35.45 -7.4% 47.7% 1.16 27% 74% 2.20 91.4 $0.39 $1.58 41.8% 16.5% 16.9% 2.13 3.1 0.0% $1,298 $5.1 automated solutions for hospital medication managementGroup 4: Reasonably Priced GrowthAbbVie Inc. (ABBV) 9/30/16 $63.07 $63.20 $61.55 -2.4% -2.6% 0.98 38% 76% 1.89 17.6 $3.49 $4.82 3.5% 15.7% 7.9% 4.04 17.7 3.7% $99,537 $446.6 biopharmaceutical companyScripps Networks Interactive (SNI) 5/27/16 $63.62 $64.22 $65.19 2.7% 1.5% 1.00 81% 72% 2.44 11.1 $5.89 $5.14 14.5% 11.2% 9.9% 2.53 4.5 1.5% $8,530 $65.5 develops lifestyle-oriented content for TV & internetAir Methods Corp. (AIRM) 1/8/16 $37.89 $37.64 $27.90 -11.4% -25.9% 0.66 14% 23% 3.30 9.3 $2.98 $3.04 19.6% 17.5% 14.1% 0.93 1.8 0.0% $1,066 $11.2 provides air medical emergency transport servicesD.R. Horton, Inc. (DHI) 12/4/15 $32.99 $32.22 $28.81 -4.6% -10.6% 0.86 34% 41% 2.31 12.8 $2.25 $2.38 21.4% 13.1% 19.7% 0.92 1.6 1.1% $10,904 $98.1 designs, builds & sells residential homesMagna International Inc. (MGA) 7/31/15 $54.36 $55.30 $40.53 -5.6% -26.7% 0.72 43% 26% 2.67 8.2 $4.95 $5.20 1.8% 13.6% 6.5% 0.46 1.7 2.5% $15,863 $56.5 supplier of automotive interior & exterior productsDelta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) 5/30/14 $40.77 $41.71 $41.21 4.7% -1.2% 0.91 83% 29% 2.55 6.7 $6.18 $5.56 51.6% 10.2% 5.1% 0.77 2.4 2.0% $30,982 $429.0 provides air transportation for passengers & cargo Qualcomm, Inc. (QCOM) 5/31/13 $63.48 $63.39 $67.71 -1.2% 6.8% 0.82 86% 72% 2.49 19.9 $3.41 $4.30 8.7% 10.5% 18.1% 4.36 3.3 3.1% $100,297 $594.9 semiconductors; wireless telecommunications products Helen of Troy Limited (HELE) 3/1/13 $36.56 $36.27 $81.45 -5.5% 124.6% 1.63 35% 30% 2.58 22.3 $3.65 $6.05 3.4% 15.0% 14.7% 1.47 2.3 0.0% $2,289 $19.3 consumer prods: Dr. Scholl's, Revlon, Sunbeam & OXOMetLife Inc. (MET) 9/28/12 $34.46 $34.45 $46.29 4.2% 34.4% 0.91 83% 40% 2.06 12.2 $3.80 $4.56 10.2% 8.6% 5.8% 0.74 0.6 3.5% $51,251 $318.9 insurance, annuities & employee benefit programsReinsurance Grp of America (RGA) 6/24/11 $59.90 $60.75 $107.98 0.0% 77.8% 1.10 55% 71% 1.20 12.7 $8.53 $9.54 0.8% 8.6% 4.8% 0.64 0.9 1.5% $6,930 $26.8 life & disability, annuity and financial reinsuranceData as of 10/25/2016. Source: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Thomson Reuters and I/B/E/S.

Gain/Loss

Portfolio AlertRel Strength Growth Rate

% Rank

Growth Rate—Hist EPS – The compound annual percentage change in fully diluted earnings per share from continuing operations over the last five fiscal years.Growth Rate—Est EPS – The average of analysts’ expected long-term (three- to five-year) growth rate in earnings per share.Growth Rate—Hist Sales – The compound annual percentage change in total sales over the last five fiscal years.Price-to-Sales Ratio – The current stock price divided by the sales per share for the trailing 12 months (last four fiscal quarters).

Price-to-Book-Value Ratio – The current stock price divided by book value per share for the latest reported fiscal quarter. Book value per share is equal to total assets less total liabilities and preferred stock, divided by common shares outstanding.Div Yield – The indicated dividend (last quarterly per share dividend multiplied by four) divided by the current stock price. Market Cap (Mil) – The current stock price multiplied by the average number of common shares outstanding during the last fiscal quarter.Avg Daily Dollar Volume (Mil) – The current stock price multiplied by the average daily trading volume over the last six months.

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8 November 2016

Stock Superstars Report

9 November 2016

SSR Group 1: Domino's Pizza, Inc. (DPZ) $164.89 ($167.25 - $100.59)

Group 1: Profitability & Relative StrengthAddition Alert Date: 12/6/2013Price at Alert: $69.78Primary Industry: Restaurants3 Yr Risk Index: 1.72Market Cap: $8,007 MilAvg Daily Dollar Volume: $111.7 Mil

Multiples Current 1/2016 12/2014 12/2013 12/2012 1/2012Price/Earnings 41.0 30.7 28.6 23.2 18.9 15.0Price/Book Value (4.1) nmf nmf nmf nmf

nmf

nmf

nmfnmf nmf nmf nmf nmf

Price/Sales 3.3 2.6 2.3 1.8 1.2 0.9Price/Cash Flow nmf 57.6 282.3 nmf 469.2 671.2Price/Free Cash Flow 55.9 39.9 67.0 27.8 12.2Yield (%) 0.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Ratios Current 1/2016 12/2014 12/2013 12/2012 1/2012Gross Margin (%) 31.1 30.8 29.8 30.5 29.9 28.5Operating Margin (%) 18.4 18.3 17.3 17.4 16.8 15.7Net Margin (%) 8.5 8.7 8.2 7.9 6.7 6.4ROE (%)ROA (%) 27.8 27.6 29.0 28.5 23.4 22.4Current Ratio 1.2 1.6 1.6 1.4 1.3 1.7Payout Ratio (%) 35.1 34.6 33.8 31.0 10.0 0.0Liabilities to Assets (%) 386.2 325.1 304.5 345.6 379.3 351.8Asset Turnover 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.6 3.5 3.5Financial Statements TTM 1/2016 12/2014 12/2013 12/2012 1/2012

Sales ($M) 2,394.4 2,216.5 1,993.8 1,802.2 1,678.4 1,652.2Stock Rel Strgth Rel Strgth Gross Income ($M) 744.4 683.1 594.8 549.0 501.3 470.5Gain Index Rank Depreciation ($M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4 Week 8% 1.09 88% Unusual/Extra ($M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.013 Week 12% 1.13 79% Operating Income ($M) 441.8 405.4 345.4 313.8 282.3 259.126 Week 23% 1.21 83% Interest Expense ($M) 116.9 99.5 86.9 88.9 101.4 91.652 Week 56% 1.51 92% Pretax Income ($M) 325.5 306.2 258.6 225.1 181.2 167.8

Net Income ($M) 204.7 192.8 162.6 143.0 112.4 105.4Growth TTM 3 Year 5 Year Operating Cash Flow ($M) 287.1 291.8 192.3 194.0 176.3 153.1

Sales 13.0% 9.7% 7.1% Investing Cash Flow ($M) (95.1) (109.3) (57.4) (99.7) 7.3 (26.9)Net Income 15.0% 19.7% 17.0% Financing Cash Flow ($M) (194.6) (80.9) (118.9) (134.8) (177.4) (123.5)EPS Basic 27.3% 21.6% 19.0% Net Cash Flow ($M) (2.5) 102.6 16.5 (40.4) 4.5 2.3EPS Dil Cont 27.9% 22.1% 19.2% EPS Basic ($) 4.13 3.58 2.96 2.58 1.99 1.79Dividends 22.9% 83.7% -- EPS Diluted Cont ($) 4.02 3.47 2.86 2.48 1.91 1.71

Dividends/Share ($) 1.45 1.24 1.00 0.80 0.20 0.00Est Surprise EPS % Surp SUE Score Free Cash Flow/Share ($) 2.95 2.67 1.22 2.07 (0.65) 2.0910/18/2016 $0.96 6.8% 4.10 Cash ($M) 30.0 133.4 30.9 14.4 54.8 50.3

Quarterly Annual Annual Goodwill/Intangibles ($M) 52.1 44.6 57.4 31.1 28.0 24.8EPS Estimates 12/2016 12/2016 12/2017 Total Assets ($M) 676.6 799.8 596.3 525.3 478.2 480.5# of Estimates 16 17 17 Long-Term Debt ($M) 2,156.9 2,181.5 1,500.6 1,512.3 1,536.4 1,450.4Current $1.44 $4.25 $5.13 Total Liabilities ($M) 2,612.8 2,600.1 1,815.8 1,815.5 1,813.7 1,690.3Month Ago $1.38 $4.14 $4.94 Book Value/Share ($) (40.30) (33.45) (22.21) (23.31) (23.67) (20.53)Three Mos. Ago $1.38 $4.13 $4.93 Avg Shares Outst'g (M) 48.0 53.8 54.9 55.3 56.4 58.9Sources: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Thomson Reuters and I/B/E/S. Data as of 10/25/2016.

Domino's Pizza operates stores at 12,500 locations in over 80 markets. It operates in three segments: domestic stores, international franchise and supply chain. Its domestic stores segment consists primarily of its network of over 4,820 franchised stores located in the U.S. Its international franchise segment is a network of franchised stores in approximately 80 international markets. Its supply chain segment operates around 20 dough manufacturing and food supply chain centers in the U.S.; a thin crust manufacturing center; a vegetable processing center, and an equipment and supplies center.

Domino's passed the Group 1 screen, which looks for companies with a proven record of earnings growth that are showing strong relative price strength. DPZ has a current P/E of 41.0 based on trailing 12-month EPS of $4.02. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal-year 2016, ending in December, is $4.25 and for fiscal-year 2017 is $5.13. On October 18 DPZ released an earnings report showing EPS of $0.96, 6.8% above analyst expectations. The consensus long-term estimated earnings growth rate is 17.8%. Earnings have grown at an annual rate of 19.2% over the last five years. DPZ's stock price has outpaced the S&P 500 by 51% over the last 52 weeks and has outperformed 92% of all U.S. stocks over the same period.

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SSR Group 2: Washington Federal Inc. (WAFD) $27.20 ($27.75 - $19.11)

Group 2: Value & Financial StrengthAddition Alert Date: 08/1/2014Price at Alert: $20.69Primary Industry: Regional Banks3 Yr Risk Index: 1.68Market Cap: $2,453 MilAvg Daily Dollar Volume: $10.0 Mil

Multiples Current 9/2016 9/2015 9/2014 9/2013 9/2012Price/Earnings 15.2 12.9 13.2 12.8 11.3 11.9Price/Book Value 1.2 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.9 0.9Price/Sales 4.6 3.9 4.0 3.8 3.3 2.8Price/Cash Flow 0.6 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.3Price/Free Cash Flow -- -- 38.5 25.3 15.0 15.0Yield (%) 2.1 2.4 2.5 2.3 2.2 2.1Ratios Current 9/2016 9/2015 9/2014 9/2013 9/2012Gross Margin (%) -- -- -- -- -- --Operating Margin (%) 79.5 79.5 80.0 78.9 73.4 59.6Net Margin (%) 30.6 30.6 30.2 29.5 29.3 23.4ROE (%) 8.3 8.3 8.2 8.0 7.9 7.3ROA (%) 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.1 1.2 1.1Current Ratio -- -- -- -- -- --Payout Ratio (%) 30.6 30.6 32.2 29.6 24.9 24.8Liabilities to Assets (%) 86.7 86.7 86.6 86.6 85.2 84.8Asset Turnover 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Financial Statements TTM 9/2016 9/2015 9/2014 9/2013 9/2012

Sales ($M) 536.8 536.8 530.6 533.7 516.3 590.3Stock Rel Strgth Rel Strgth Gross Income ($M) -- -- -- -- -- --Gain Index Rank Depreciation ($M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 (1.8) (1.5)

4 Week 1% 1.03 72% Unusual/Extra ($M) 1,399.0 1,375.0 1,309.0 1,124.0 1,064.0 991.013 Week 9% 1.10 73% Operating Income ($M) 426.5 426.5 424.6 421.0 378.8 352.126 Week 11% 1.08 70% Interest Expense ($M) -- -- -- -- -- --52 Week 9% 1.05 66% Pretax Income ($M) 248.1 248.1 249.5 244.9 234.6 215.9

Net Income ($M) 164.0 164.0 160.3 157.4 151.5 138.2Growth TTM 3 Year 5 Year Operating Cash Flow ($M) -- -- 142.9 173.7 181.4 175.0

Sales 1.3% 1.3% (3.6%) Investing Cash Flow ($M) -- -- (290.5) 781.0 (391.9) 1,054.3Net Income 2.3% 2.7% 8.1% Financing Cash Flow ($M) -- -- (350.2) (376.5) (337.4) (1,293.9)EPS Basic 7.1% 7.4% 12.5% Net Cash Flow ($M) -- -- (497.8) 578.3 (547.9) (64.6)EPS Dil Cont 7.0% 7.3% 12.3% EPS Basic ($) 1.80 1.80 1.68 1.56 1.45 1.29Dividends 1.9% 15.2% 18.0% EPS Diluted Cont ($) 1.79 1.79 1.67 1.55 1.45 1.29

Dividends/Share ($) 0.55 0.55 0.54 0.46 0.36 0.32Est Surprise EPS % Surp SUE Score Free Cash Flow/Share ($) -- -- 0.57 0.79 1.09 1.0210/19/2016 $0.49 8.9% 1.40 Cash ($M) 567.6 567.6 391.2 940.6 376.6 901.2

Quarterly Annual Annual Goodwill/Intangibles ($M) 297.0 297.0 299.4 302.9 264.3 256.1EPS Estimates 12/2016 9/2017 9/2018 Total Assets ($M) 14,888.1 14,888.1 14,568.3 14,756.0 13,082.9 12,472.9# of Estimates 4 5 3 Long-Term Debt ($M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Current $0.44 $1.80 $1.90 Total Liabilities ($M) 12,912.3 12,912.3 12,612.6 12,782.8 11,145.2 10,573.2Month Ago $0.44 $1.79 $1.85 Book Value/Share ($) 21.98 21.62 20.45 19.51 18.51 17.74Three Mos. Ago $0.44 $1.74 $1.78 Avg Shares Outst'g (M) 89.9 91.4 95.6 101.2 104.7 107.1Sources: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Thomson Reuters and I/B/E/S. Data as of 10/25/2016.

Washington Federal is a U.S.-based bank holding company. Its principal subsidiary is Washington Federal, National Association, which operates 250 branches in eight western states. The company obtains its funds primarily through deposits from the general public, repayments of loans, borrowings and retained earnings. These funds are used largely to make loans to individuals and businesses, including loans for the purchase of new and existing homes, construction and land loans, commercial real estate loans, and commercial and industrial loans. Washington Federal caters to home loans, personal banking and commercial banking segments.

WAFD passed the Group 2 screen, which looks for dividend-paying stocks with a low P/E ratio exhibiting positive historical and projected earnings growth and moderate levels of liabilities. WAFD's current P/E ratio of 15.2 is based on trailing 12-month EPS of $1.79. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal-year 2017 is $1.80 and for fiscal-year 2018 is $1.90. The latest quarterly EPS came in at $0.49, 8.9% above expectations. The consensus long-term estimated EPS growth rate is 10.0%. Earnings have increased on an annualized basis by 12.3% over the last five years. Revenues have fallen by 3.6% a year over the same period. WAFD's current yield is 2.1% based on an indicated dividend of $0.56 per share. Over the last 12 months, WAFD has outperformed 66% of all stocks.

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11 November 2016

SSR Group 3: Photronics, Inc. (PLAB) $10.00 ($13.05 - $8.56)

Group 3: GARP RevisionsAddition Alert Date: 1/8/2016Price at Alert: $11.80Primary Industry: Semiconductors3 Yr Risk Index: 2.44Market Cap: $685 MilAvg Daily Dollar Volume: $3.4 Mil

Multiples Current 11/2015 11/2014 11/2013 10/2012 10/2011Price/Earnings 12.4 16.6 20.0 26.5 13.8 26.5Price/Book Value 1.0 1.1 0.8 0.8 0.7 0.8Price/Sales 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.1 0.8 0.8Price/Cash Flow 7.5 62.8 nmf nmf 16.7 4.7Price/Free Cash Flow 12.3 28.6 111.9 14.2 13.2 7.9Yield (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Ratios Current 11/2015 11/2014 11/2013 10/2012 10/2011Gross Margin (%) 27.6 27.3 22.0 23.6 24.8 26.6Operating Margin (%) 14.4 13.8 9.9 7.3 9.9 7.9Net Margin (%) 11.5 8.5 5.7 4.3 6.2 3.2ROE (%) 8.8 7.0 4.3 3.2 5.2 3.4ROA (%) 5.9 4.3 2.7 2.1 3.3 2.1Current Ratio 4.5 1.9 2.4 3.0 3.7 3.2Payout Ratio (%) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0Liabilities to Assets (%) 29.4 38.2 39.0 33.9 35.1 37.5Asset Turnover 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7Financial Statements TTM 11/2015 11/2014 11/2013 10/2012 10/2011Sales ($M) 517.8 524.2 455.5 422.2 450.4 512.0

Stock Rel Strgth Rel Strgth Gross Income ($M) 142.8 143.1 100.3 99.6 111.9 136.2Gain Index Rank Depreciation ($M) 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0

4 Week (3%) 0.98 44% Unusual/Extra ($M) 0.0 0.0 (16.4) 0.0 1.4 35.313 Week 3% 1.04 61% Operating Income ($M) 74.4 72.2 45.2 30.7 44.4 40.226 Week (10%) 0.88 31% Interest Expense ($M) 3.9 5.0 7.2 7.8 7.5 7.352 Week 6% 1.03 62% Pretax Income ($M) 82.8 70.0 41.3 26.8 40.6 35.9

Net Income ($M) 59.6 44.6 26.0 18.0 27.9 16.2Growth TTM 3 Year 5 Year Operating Cash Flow ($M) 132.8 133.2 96.4 99.4 132.5 136.6

Sales 2.2% 5.2% 4.3% Investing Cash Flow ($M) 33.7 (104.3) (87.5) (66.2) (111.9) (100.7)Net Income 96.7% 17.0% 13.3% Financing Cash Flow ($M) (67.2) (7.1) (29.5) (39.8) 4.6 54.5EPS Basic 93.3% 13.2% 8.5% Net Cash Flow ($M) 100.1 12.9 (22.7) (2.4) 28.1 91.0EPS Dil Cont 86.4% 12.1% 8.0% EPS Basic ($) 0.89 0.67 0.42 0.30 0.46 0.29Dividends -- -- -- EPS Diluted Cont ($) 0.81 0.63 0.41 0.29 0.44 0.28

Dividends/Share ($) 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00 0.00Est Surprise EPS % Surp SUE Score Free Cash Flow/Share ($) 0.82 0.36 0.07 0.54 0.47 0.938/18/2016 $0.12 (14.3%) NA Cash ($M) 291.7 205.9 192.9 215.6 218.0 189.9

Quarterly Annual Annual Goodwill/Intangibles ($M) 21.0 24.6 60.6 34.1 74.8 42.5EPS Estimates 10/2016 10/2016 10/2017 Total Assets ($M) 1,000.4 1,045.6 1,029.2 885.9 849.2 817.9# of Estimates 5 5 5 Long-Term Debt ($M) 63.1 67.1 131.8 182.2 169.0 152.6Current $0.13 $0.55 $0.63 Total Liabilities ($M) 294.1 399.0 401.1 300.6 297.8 306.8Month Ago $0.13 $0.55 $0.63 Book Value/Share ($) 10.39 9.75 10.17 9.65 9.18 8.96Three Mos. Ago $0.16 $0.60 $0.74 Avg Shares Outst'g (M) 68.0 66.3 61.8 60.6 60.1 57.0Sources: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Thomson Reuters and I/B/E/S. Data as of 10/25/2016.

Photronics is a manufacturer of photo masks: photographic quartz plates containing microscopic images of electronic circuits. The company offers services across the full spectrum of integrated chip (IC) production and flat panel display (FPD) technologies. Photronic operates from nine manufacturing facilities, two of which are located in Europe, two in Taiwan, one in Korea and three in the United States. The company primarily sells its products to leading semiconductor and FPD manufacturers. In addition to the sales personnel at the company's manufacturing facilities, it has sales offices in the United States, Europe and Asia. Photronics supports international customers through both its domestic and international facilities.

PLAB passed the Group 3 screen, which seeks companies with upward earnings estimate revisions, a positive earnings surprise in the most recent quarter, and relatively strong price action. PLAB's current P/E ratio is 12.4 based on EPS of $0.81. The latest quarterly EPS was $0.12, falling short of analyst expectations by 14.3%. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal-year 2017, ending in October, is $0.63. The historical five-year annual growth rate for earnings is 8.0% and for revenues is 4.3%. PLAB does not currently pay a dividend. Over the past 52 weeks, PLAB has outperformed 62% of all U.S. stocks.

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SSR Group 4: Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) $41.21 ($52.77 - $32.60)

Group 4: Reasonably Priced GrowthAddition Alert Date: 5/30/2014Price at Alert: $40.77Primary Industry: Airline3 Yr Risk Index: 2.55Market Cap: $30,982 MilAvg Daily Dollar Volume: $429.0 Mil

Multiples Current 12/2015 12/2014 12/2013 12/2012 12/2011Price/Earnings 6.7 7.8 49.6 1.7 8.5 9.7Price/Book Value 2.4 3.2 3.7 1.5 nmf nmfPrice/Sales 0.8 0.9 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.2Price/Cash Flow nmf nmf nmf 41.5 nmf nmfPrice/Free Cash Flow 8.7 7.6 13.4 9.7 16.8 5.2Yield (%) 2.0 1.0 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0Ratios Current 12/2015 12/2014 12/2013 12/2012 12/2011Gross Margin (%) 61.3 65.7 37.3 44.5 40.9 40.5Operating Margin (%) 19.3 19.2 4.8 9.0 5.6 5.4Net Margin (%) 11.9 11.1 1.6 27.9 2.8 2.4ROE (%) 40.8 46.0 6.4 221.6 nmf nmfROA (%) 9.1 8.4 1.2 21.8 2.3 2.0Current Ratio (%) 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.7 0.6 0.6Payout Ratio (%) 9.8 7.9 38.1 1.0 0.0 0.0Liabilities to Assets (%) 75.4 79.6 83.7 77.7 104.8 103.2Asset Turnover 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8 0.8Financial Statements TTM 12/2015 12/2014 12/2013 12/2012 12/2011

Sales ($M) 39,683.0 40,704.0 40,362.0 37,773.0 36,670.0 35,115.0Stock Rel Strgth Rel Strgth Gross Income ($M) 24,331.0 26,757.0 15,049.0 16,809.0 15,012.0 14,208.0Gain Index Rank Depreciation ($M) 1,881.0 1,835.0 1,771.0 1,658.0 1,565.0 1,523.0

4 Week 5% 1.06 83% Unusual/Extra ($M) -- 35.0 984.0 402.0 570.0 310.013 Week 7% 1.08 70% Operating Income ($M) 7,649.0 7,802.0 1,938.0 3,400.0 2,057.0 1,907.026 Week (6%) 0.92 37% Interest Expense ($M) 39,683.0 40,704.0 40,362.0 37,773.0 36,670.0 35,115.052 Week (20%) 0.78 29% Pretax Income ($M) 7,217.0 7,157.0 1,072.0 2,527.0 1,025.0 769.0

Net Income ($M) 4,731.0 4,526.0 659.0 10,540.0 1,009.0 854.0Growth TTM 3 Year 5 Year Operating Cash Flow ($M) 7,559.0 7,927.0 4,947.0 4,504.0 2,476.0 2,834.0

Sales (2.9%) 3.5% 5.1% Investing Cash Flow ($M) (3,779.0) (3,955.0) (2,463.0) (2,756.0) (1,962.0) (1,498.0)Net Income 66.9% 64.9% 50.2% Financing Cash Flow ($M) (4,511.0) (4,088.0) (3,240.0) (1,320.0) (755.0) (1,571.0)EPS Basic 74.4% 68.2% 51.5% Net Cash Flow ($M) (731.0) (116.0) (756.0) 428.0 (241.0) (235.0)EPS Dil Cont 75.4% 68.0% 51.6% EPS Basic ($) 6.22 5.68 0.79 12.42 1.19 1.02Dividends 50.0% -- -- EPS Diluted Cont ($) 6.18 5.63 0.78 12.28 1.19 1.01

Dividends/Share ($) 0.61 0.45 0.30 0.12 0.00 0.00Est Surprise EPS % Surp SUE Score Free Cash Flow/Share ($) 4.76 5.75 2.90 2.14 0.60 1.8710/13/2016 $1.70 3.2% 2.00 Cash ($M) 3,152.0 3,437.0 3,305.0 3,803.0 3,374.0 3,615.0

Quarterly Annual Annual Goodwill/Intangibles ($M) 14,642.0 14,655.0 19,000.0 14,452.0 14,473.0 14,545.0EPS Estimates 12/2016 12/2016 12/2017 Total Assets ($M) 50,948.0 53,134.0 54,005.0 52,252.0 44,550.0 43,499.0# of Estimates 14 14 15 Long-Term Debt ($M) 6,473.0 6,766.0 8,477.0 9,795.0 11,082.0 11,847.0Current $1.07 $5.56 $5.30 Total Liabilities ($M) 38,438.0 42,284.0 45,192.0 40,609.0 46,681.0 44,895.0Month Ago $1.28 $5.70 $5.66 Book Value/Share ($) 16.91 13.61 10.54 13.71 (2.52) (1.67)Three Mos. Ago $1.31 $5.90 $5.94 Avg Shares Outst'g (M) 740.0 797.0 836.0 849.0 845.0 838.0Sources: AAII Stock Investor Pro, Thomson Reuters and I/B/E/S. Data as of 10/25/2016.

Delta Air Lines provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S. and around the world. The company's operating segaments are airline segment and refinery segment. The airline segment provides scheduled air transportation for passengers and cargo throughout the U.S. and around the world and other ancillary airline services. The refinery segment produces gasoline, diesel and jet fuel. The company also offers cargo services, aircraft maintenance, repair and overhaul (MRO), staffing services for third parties, vacation wholesale operations and private jet operations.

DAL passed the Group 4 screen, which looks for a combination of low P/E ratios, solid EPS growth forecasts, a strong record of sales growth, and strong relative profitability. It has a current P/E ratio of 6.7, based on a trailing 12-month EPS of $6.18. The consensus EPS estimate for fiscal-year 2016 is $5.56 and for fiscal-year 2017 is $5.30. The consensus long-term expected annual EPS growth rate is 10.2%. Earnings have increased by 51.6% annually over the last five years, while revenues have grown 5.1% annually over the same period. DAL shares currently yield 2.0% based on an annual indicated dividend per share of $0.81. DAL has underperformed the S&P 500 by 22% over the last year and has outperformed 29% of all U.S. stocks over the same period.

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Election day is less than two weeks away. As it draws near, there has been a greater amount of chat-ter about the impact the election may have on stock prices. We’ll shed some light on the historical trends, recognizing of course that history is no guarantee of the future.

Before we begin, the sample size needs to be dis-cussed. The amount of data is limited because of the relatively small number of four-year presidential cycles. Ned Davis Research has daily data for the Dow Jones industrial average since 1900. Over this time period there have only been 29 previous presidential elections. Sam Stovall, who is now with CFRA, uses data going back to 1944, reducing the sample size to 17 previous elections. The numbers become even smaller when events such as the incumbent party holding onto/losing office or a split Congress are con-sidered. As such, all the trends discussed here should be viewed with those shortcomings kept in mind.

Forecasting Election ResultsThe market has been a pretty good predictor of

which party will have their candidate reside at 1600 Pennsylvania Ave. Stovall says that the incumbent party has kept the presidency 82% of the time when the S&P 500 index has risen between July 31 and October 31. The opposing party won 86% of the time when stocks fell. As of October 26, the large-cap index was down 1.6% from its (Friday) July 29 close of 2,173.60.

Economic growth has favored the incumbent party. Ned Davis Research says the incumbent party has retained control of the White House 71% of the time since 1900 when the economy was not in a recession. The incumbent party lost the White House during four of the five times when the economy was in a re-cession on Election Day. The one exception was Harry Truman’s surprise win over Thomas Dewey. Present day, the Bureau of Economic Analysis was expected to report the economy as remaining in expansion mode during the third quarter of 2016 at press time.

Post-Election PerformanceThe S&P 500 has realized an average annualized

return of 6.7% when a Republican served as president and 9.7% when a Democrat held the office since 1945, according to Stovall. Ned Davis Research also gives

Portfolio Corner: The Election and the Stock Market

the edge to Democrats, with the Dow Jones industrial average realizing 7.7% annualized returns since 1900 versus 3.0% annualized gains under Republican lead-ership. Adjusting the returns for inflation, the Dow has gained 3.7% annually under Democratic presi-dents and 0.9% under Republican presidents.

Factoring Congress into the equation highlights the problem of sample size. The Dow has realized its highest returns with a Democratic president and a split Congress according to Ned Davis, but such an arrangement has only existed during four years since 1901 (2011 through 2015). Single-party control of government has resulted in about 7% annual returns regardless of whether Democrats or Republicans are in charge. A Democratic president and Republican Congress has been matched with 8.8% annualized gains. Republican presidents paired with a split Con-gress have been associated with the lowest returns, a 4.3% average loss. Both of the last two scenarios have only occurred for about 12 years each since 1901.

The Presidential CycleStocks returns tend to follow a four-year cycle tied

to the presidency. This year, 2016, counts as year four since it is the final year of the presidential term. Ned Davis Research finds that election-year gains ranked third best (7.4% for the Dow) since 1900. Stovall also finds election years as ranking third best since 1944 with an annualized return of 5.9% for the S&P 500. Election years during the second term of a president have fared far worse, with an average loss of 3.3% for the S&P 500 since 1944, however. Stovall attributes this to the uncertainty of new leadership.

Should the typical presidential cycle restart next year, investors can almost flip a coin to judge the mar-ket’s direction. Ned Davis says the Dow Jones indus-trial average has risen during 51.7% of all first years since 1900, with a median gain of 10.9%. Stovall says the S&P 500 has risen 59% of the time since 1944, with an average gain of 7.6% (61% of the time with an average gain of 6.2% for first-term presidents). The second year has traditionally been the worst (5.3% gain for the S&P 500), followed by a considerably bet-ter third year (16.1% for the S&P 500). Keep in mind not only that the sample size is small, but also that domestic and global events can significantly influence year-to-year returns. •