THE STATE OF THE FUTURE IN EGYPT, 2011 Major and Minor Changes (1) The Popular Uprise In Egypt, and Egypt 2020 Real Time Delphi Study. (2) The Democracy

THE STATE OF THE FUTURE IN EGYPT, 2011

Major and Minor Changes

(1) The Popular Uprise In Egypt, and Egypt 2020 Real Time Delphi Study.

(2) The Democracy Spring In the Arab Region.

(3) Future Studies And Research Potentials In Northern Sudan And Yemen States.

(4) The Millennium Project 15 Global Challenges Addressed On Friday’s Sermons And In the Public

Media.

(5) SOF 2010, 2011 Arabic Version Collaboration (Egypt, Kuwait, Dubai)

1

THE POPULAR UPRISE AND

EGYPT 2020 RT-Delphi STUDY

Presented By Kamal Z. M. Shaeer, Nedaa Ezzat , and Omneya Hamza

World Future Society Annual Conference, Millennium Project Planning Committee

July 7-10, 2011 Vancouver, Canada 2

Produced By

Cairo Node of the Millennium Project,Egypt Arab Futures Research Association,

And the Collaborative Partners, IDSC, ACED

3

Introduction

4

STATE OF WILDCARD* FUTURE CHANGES

In-calculable, unexpected, high uncertainty. Movement, Riot, Uprising, or Historical Revolution ?! Out of the Blue?! (Unknown, Metaphysical, Supernatural) Out of the Black ?! (Man’s

Plot ,Man’s Plan) Revolutionaries?! (legal, illegal) Scenarios?!

5

*W. Warren Wager, 1996: Encyclopedia of the Future, Kurian GT and Moliter G TT, eds

“ Low-Probability, High-Impact Changes”

NATIONS OF WILDCARD CHANGES [1979, 89, 91]

The Persian Spring , 1979The European Spring, 1989

Democratization of Eastern Europe.

Fall of Berlin’s Wall, reunification of Germany.

The Breakup of Soviet Union, 1991

“Most visionaries failed to plan for, a few scattered visionaries considered the ramifications, thus gained superior position in the

emerging changing markets”*

6

*W. Warren Wagar , 1996

NATIONS IN WILDCARD CHANGES [2011]

Democratization Revolutions, Of North Africa and the Middle East

Most visionaries failed to plan for, only the authors of the State of the Future , 2010; of the Millennium Project reported:

7

The Arab Spring, The Arab Spring, 20112011

“ The growing gap between recent setbacks in political rights, and the emergence of global democratic consciousness , driven

by new means of communication and growing interdependence” (SOF 2010 , p 18)

Egypt

8

Egypt Revolution Timeline

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Bread

Freedom

Dignity

Humanity


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Suffering from Inflation and lack of the day to day

life necessitiesLaw wasn’t applied in all

scenarios

Plans for Gamal Mubarak to rule after his dad


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Hundreds of thousand demonstrated peacefully faced with violence from the police

forces.

Police forces were withdrawn from the streets, and the military

was deployed. curfew was declared a day after.

Shutting down The Internet and Mobile Services


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After Mubarak made another televised address and offered several concessions

on the 1st of Feb-11

Violence escalated as waves of Mubarak supporters met anti-government protesters, and some Mubarak

supporters rode on camels and horses into Tahrir Square, reportedly wielding swords and sticks.


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11th of Feb-11“Friday of Departure”


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“1st revolution were protestors clean the streets after them”


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Ahmed Shafik stepped down as Prime Minister

and was replaced by Essam Sharaf.


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State Security Intelligence (SSI) buildings were raided across Egypt by protesters


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The constitutional referendum was held and passed by 77.27%


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Parts of the Interior Ministry building catch fire during police demonstrations outside


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The Egyptian Cabinet orders a law criminalizing protests and strikes that

hampers work at private or public establishments. Under the new law, anyone organizing or calling for such protests will be sentenced to jail and/or a fine of LE500,000


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Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled Tahrir Square for the largest protest in weeks, demanding that the ruling military council move faster to dismantle lingering aspects of the old

regime.[123] Protestors demanded trial for Hosni Mubarak, Gamal Mubarak, Ahmad Fathi Sorour, Safwat El-Sherif and Zakaria Azmi as well.

"Save the Revolution"


22

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• Hundreds of thousands of demonstrators filled Tahrir Square, besides tens of thousands in each of Alexandra, Suez, Ismailia, Gharbeya and other areas; in the largest demonstrations since ousting Mubarak's Regime. Protestors

• Demanded No Military Trials for Civilians, the Egyptian Constitution to be made before the Parliament Elections and for all the old regime gang and those who killed protestors in January and February to be put on fair Trial

"Second Friday of Anger"

THE STATE OF EGYPT, 2010

Chronically Hesitant, Despotic, and Corrupt Ruling Regimes (from foreign to national, civic to military,

socialist to capitalist, reformative to corruptive )

Declined and Marginalized Regional and International Influence of Egypt.

Slowly Developing Economy and Population(unemployment, social injustice, overpopulation )

Prevailing Triad of: Poverty, Illiteracy, and Ill-Health 23

THE STATE OF EGYPT, 2011

Towards an Egyptian age of Renaissance of Thinking \to Chart the Future.

Would Egypt invent the first 21st century new form of democracy ?

Egypt 2020 RT-Delphi Study

Developments that may shape the future of Egypt What would insure the revolution momentum? What would counter the revolution spirit?

24

EGYPT 2020 RT-DELPHI STUDYTHIRTY-FOUR DEVELOPMENTS

THAT MIGHT SHAPE THE FUTURE OF EGYPT

As listed by, their average likelihood to be achieved by 2020

As rated by ,Panel invited by the Cairo Node of the Millennium Project

As expressed by the public opinion and mediaAl-Ahram weekly, The Egyptian Gazette newspapers..etc

25

26

INSURING THE REVOLUTIONARYSPIRIT AND MOMENTUM

Continued persistent uprising and peaceful demonstrations in “Friday's million marches”, whenever required.

making real gains politically, socially, economically and spiritually. defending their rights. confronting despotic regime forces.

Old power structures have to be eliminated, or at least weakened.

New power has to be institutionalized, fair balanced division, sharing and control of power.

Establish one or two parties for the civic state.27

INSURING THE REVOLUTIONARY SPIRIT AND MOMENTUM [Cont’d]

Fast and sustainable successes in socio-economic development.

Tough and drastic lawful measures to fend off sectarian clashes and calm down religious tensions (within the framework of law ).

Participation of the public and private sectors , in adopting the values of the revolution, and supporting social solidarity.

Change the tactics of the revolutionary movement and discourse, to identify and present key issues for the future, to the people allover the country.

28

COUNTERING THE REVOLUTIONARY SPIRIT

Re-emergence of political corruption, among political parties by former politicians of the former regime.

Creating state of unrest, by uncontrollable reactions, for the ruling Military Council, to use violence.

External turmoil emerging from the neighboring countries.

External interference of some countries, to achieve certain objectives.

Lack of commitment by the government pledges.

Divisions with and among the revolutionaries.

Resorting to foreign aid with tough preconditions, to avoid national bankruptcy.

29

SCENARIOS

Democratic Majority State, Despite Despotic Opposition Minority(Plausible)

Military Oligarchy Facing Civic Anarchy(Possible)

Theocratic Not Secular State (Least probable)

30

Egypt 2020 RT-DELPHI Study

31

Detailed and Covering all the aspects

Very long especially in the given on going changes.

• Continue the study for 1 year.

• Host the questionnaire on EAFRA website for better follow up and regular analysis on the results.

• Shorter questionnaires will be formulated each covering a certain topic and will be sent to the experts over a period of time to cover all the up coming changes.

32

Is Still Ongoing at the time of printing.

Those interested in the continuing study, should contact Dr. Kamal Zaki Mahmoud Shaeer,

Chair of The Millennium Project Node in Egypt and the Egyptian-Arab Futures Research Association

at [email protected].

www.eafra.org

Egypt 2020 RT-DELPHI Study

33

EAFRA new Website To Interact with the

Youth

Questionnaires and its Data base

شكـــــــرا

THANK YOU

34

35

Rank ItemPopular Support

Priority Likelihood

1High speed Internet access for at least 75% of population.

9.60 83.89 92.22

2 Freedom for all to establish political parties. 9.10 83.56 90.10

3 Functional illiteracy rate reduced by 50%. 8.67 95.75 88.50

4 Sufficient safe drinking water for all. 8.20 98.75 86.89

5Freedom: discussions of issues of tolerance and values exist in all media (TV, Radio, press, Internet).

9.07 80.85 85.33

6 Sufficient food for all with adequate reserves. 7.75 96.71 84.86

7 Standard of living for all citizens increases 50%. 7.44 92.25 84.71

8Over 50% reduction in suicide rate among the youth.

8.50 82.00 84.44

9Public option poll finds over 50% of the public believes a renaissance has begun in Egypt.

9.30 82.88 84.25

10 Rich-poor gap reduced by 50%. 8.22 95.00 83.88

11Equal pay for equal jobs between men and women.

8.78 76.50 83.75

12Establish Win-Win relation between Egypt and Nile-Basin countries.

8.90 100.00 83.56

13Free and transparent voting in election campaigns.

8.78 96.50 83.10

14Very active tele-Egypt connecting Egyptians overseas to development process back home.

8.10 90.67 82.22

15Most acknowledge a new sense of citizenry and nation loyalty particularly among the youth

9.20 88.67 82.10

16Freedom House (an organization that rates countries' freedom) changes Egypt's status from ''not free'' to ''free.''

9.60 92.22 81.27

17 Basic health services accessible to all. 7.30 93.75 81.00

18 Political violence essentially ended. 7.56 88.63 80.11

19No sectarian and minority violent incidents reported for over six months.

7.10 99.25 79.75

20Public option poll finds over 50% of the public are happy with the new political and social regimes.

9.15 86.71 79.65

21 Corruption reduced by 50%. 7.20 94.22 78.50

22 Sanitary sewage access for all. 7.67 90.63 78.13

23Social class and values conflicts are essentially abolished.

7.50 79.67 76.00

24NGOs certify respect for citizens' basic rights by international standards.

8.23 83.30 74.82

25WHO certifies continued progress in all basic health standards.

7.89 93.75 74.75

26Educational objective to increase students' intelligence (brain functioning).

7.44 95.25 74.38

27 Illegal immigration rate reduced by 50%. 7.70 80.38 74.00

28Resolution of conflicts over modernism vs. fundamentalism.

7.10 83.44 72.78

29Air, water, and land pollution decrease by 30%.

8.00 86.00 71.75

30Renewable energy reaches 20% of the electricity generation mix.

7.70 91.11 71.63

31Micro-finance and small business development accessible to all.

7.60 75.89 67.67

32Noticeable reduction in business influence in political and economic life.

7.50 86.00 65.60

33 Population growth rate reduced below 1%. 8.40 95.44 65.00

34At least 30% of Parliament and Cabinet are women.

7.30 64.78 64.44

Documents

THE STATE OF THE FUTURE IN EGYPT, 2011 Major and Minor Changes (1) The Popular Uprise In Egypt, and Egypt 2020 Real Time Delphi Study. (2) The Democracy