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The State of theErie Economy
Presentation to
Presque Isle CPCU Society Chapter
September 14, 2017
Kenneth LouieThe Economic Research Institute of ErieSam and Irene Black School of Business
Penn State Behrend
ERIE Resources on the Erie Economy
www.ERIEdata.org
Three Key Metrics
• The Erie Economy in 2017
• Output
• Income
• Employment
Total Output (GDP): Erie, PA, and U.S.Real (Inflation-Adjusted) GDP
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
100
124
126
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Ind
exe
d G
DP
( 2
00
9 $
)
U.S.
PA
Erie
2015 Real GDP
US: $16.1 trillionPA: $644.9 billionErie: $9.7 billion
Latest: 2015
Erie GDP by Industry (Percent of Total), 2015
0.3%
0.3%
1.4%
1.9%
1.9%
2.0%
3.0%
3.1%
4.3%
4.5%
5.6%
7.0% ($756 million)
12.8% ($1.4 billion)
12.8% ($1.4 billion)
13.6% ($1.5 billion)25.9% ($2.8 billion)
0% 10% 20% 30%
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting
Mining
Utilities
Information
Educational services
Transportation and warehousing
Other services, except government
Construction
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and…
Wholesale trade
Professional and business services
Retail trade
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing
Health care and social assistance
Government
Manufacturing
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Erie GDP in 2015:$10.9 billion
2014 ($ millions):FIRRL: $1,424
Finance & Insurance: 887Insurance Carriers: 710
GDP by Industry (%), 2015: Erie versus PA and U.S.
Erie PA U.S.Location QuotientErie/PA Erie/U.S.
Manufacturing 25.87% 12.12% 12.11% 2.14 2.14
Government 13.55% 10.08% 12.42% 1.34 1.09
Finance, insurance, real estate, rental, and leasing 12.75% 18.67% 20.40% 0.68 0.63
Health care and social assistance 12.75% 9.42% 7.25% 1.35 1.76
Retail trade 6.96% 5.11% 5.90% 1.36 1.18
Professional and business services 5.55% 13.02% 12.31% 0.43 0.45
Wholesale trade 4.46% 5.87% 6.10% 0.76 0.73
Arts, entertainment, recreation, accommodation, and food services 4.25% 3.29% 3.96% 1.29 1.07
Construction 3.12% 4.19% 4.08% 0.74 0.76
Other services, except government 3.00% 2.22% 2.24% 1.35 1.34
Transportation and warehousing 1.96% 3.14% 3.03% 0.63 0.65
Educational services 1.93% 2.11% 1.13% 0.92 1.71
Information 1.86% 6.36% 4.69% 0.29 0.40
Utilities 1.35% 1.63% 1.59% 0.83 0.85
Mining 0.35% 2.25% 1.83% 0.16 0.19
Agriculture, forestry, fishing, and hunting 0.28% 0.54% 0.98% 0.51 0.28
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Real GDP Per Capita
$34,421 $34,914(+1.4%)
$44,689 $50,155(+12.2%)
$42,458
$50,418(+18.7%)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
Ch
ain
ed
20
09
Do
llars
U.S.
Latest: 2015
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
PA
Erie
Real Income Per Capita
$22,547
$39,159(+73.7%)
$24,173$25,912
$48,266 (+86.3%)
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Re
al In
com
e P
er
Cap
ita
(20
12
$)
$48,187 (+99.3%)
Latest: 2015
87.0
90.7
80.0
86.3
77.4
81.1
70
75
80
85
90
95
19
69
19
71
19
73
19
75
19
77
19
79
19
81
19
83
19
85
19
87
19
89
19
91
19
93
19
95
19
97
19
99
20
01
20
03
20
05
20
07
20
09
20
11
20
13
20
15
Re
al In
com
e P
er
Cap
ita,
% o
f U
.S.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis
Latest: 2015
Erie versus PA and U.S. Erie as a Percent of U.S.
Real Median Household Income
$51,914 $57,230
$50,398$55,702
$43,595$47,386
$0
$10,000
$20,000
$30,000
$40,000
$50,000
$60,000
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Re
al M
ed
ian
Ho
use
ho
ld In
com
eU.S. PA Erie County
Source for 2010-2014: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 5-Year EstimatesSource for 2015-2016: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates ,Table B19013(Figures for the U.S. for 2015 and 2016 are from U.S. Census News Release, 9/12/2017)
2016:
US: $59,039PA: $56,907Erie: $48,964
Average Weekly Wages by Industry,Erie County, 4th Quarter 2016
$275 $406
$451 $493 $496
$534 $661
$809 $835 $844
$880 $888
$922 $937
$1,032 $1,067
$1,148 $1,151
$1,244 $1,415
$1,456
$0 $200 $400 $600 $800 $1,000 $1,200 $1,400 $1,600
Accommodation and Food ServicesArts, Entertainment, and Recreation
Administrative and Waste ServicesOther Services, Ex. Public Admin
Retail TradeAgriculture, Forestry, Fishing & Hunting
Real Estate and Rental and LeasingTotal, All Industries
Educational ServicesTransportation and WarehousingHealth Care and Social Assistance
InformationConstruction
Mining, Quarrying, and Oil and Gas ExtractionWholesale Trade
Public AdministrationProfessional and Technical Services
ManufacturingManagement of Companies and Enterprises
Finance and InsuranceUtilities
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
Poverty Rates
13.4% 13.2%
15.3% 13.5%
17.4%18.3%
17.5%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015
Pe
rce
nt
of
Po
pu
lati
on
PA U.S. Erie County
2016:
US: 12.7%PA: 12.9%Erie: 15.9%
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, ACS 1-Year Estimates, Table S1701(Figures for the U.S. in 2015 and 2016 are from Census News Release, 9/12/2017))
Erie Total Employment, 1970-2017
101,400(Jan 1970)
136,300(Feb 1999)
124,500(July 2017)
80
90
100
110
120
130
140
150
Jan
uar
y, 1
97
0Fe
bru
ary,
19
71
Mar
ch, 1
972
Ap
ril,
19
73M
ay, 1
97
4Ju
ne
, 19
75Ju
ly, 1
97
6A
ugu
st, 1
977
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
97
8O
cto
ber
, 19
79
No
vem
be
r, 1
98
0D
ece
mb
er, 1
98
1Ja
nu
ary,
19
83
Feb
ruar
y, 1
98
4M
arch
, 19
85A
pri
l, 1
986
May
, 19
87
Jun
e, 1
988
July
, 19
89
Au
gust
, 19
90Se
pte
mb
er,
19
91
Oct
ob
er, 1
99
2N
ove
mb
er,
19
93
Dec
em
ber
, 19
94
Jan
uar
y, 1
99
6Fe
bru
ary,
19
97
Mar
ch, 1
998
Ap
ril,
19
99M
ay, 2
00
0Ju
ne
, 20
01Ju
ly, 2
00
2A
ugu
st, 2
003
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
00
4O
cto
ber
, 20
05
No
vem
be
r, 2
00
6D
ece
mb
er, 2
00
7Ja
nu
ary,
20
09
Feb
ruar
y, 2
01
0M
arch
, 20
11A
pri
l, 2
012
May
, 20
13
Jun
e, 2
014
July
, 20
15
Au
gust
, 20
16Tota
l Em
plo
yme
nt
(Th
ou
san
ds)
(Seasonally Adjusted)
Latest: July 2017
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
Erie Total Employment, 1990-2017
125,500(Jan 1990)
136,300(Feb 1999)
128,100(Aug 2003)
134,500(May 2008)
121,600(Jan 2010)
127,800(Feb 2015)
124,500(July 2017)
114116118120122124126128130132134136138
Jan
uar
y, 1
99
0
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
99
0
May
, 19
91
Jan
uar
y, 1
99
2
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
99
2
May
, 19
93
Jan
uar
y, 1
99
4
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
99
4
May
, 19
95
Jan
uar
y, 1
99
6
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
99
6
May
, 19
97
Jan
uar
y, 1
99
8
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
99
8
May
, 19
99
Jan
uar
y, 2
00
0
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
00
0
May
, 20
01
Jan
uar
y, 2
00
2
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
00
2
May
, 20
03
Jan
uar
y, 2
00
4
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
00
4
May
, 20
05
Jan
uar
y, 2
00
6
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
00
6
May
, 20
07
Jan
uar
y, 2
00
8
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
00
8
May
, 20
09
Jan
uar
y, 2
01
0
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
01
0
May
, 20
11
Jan
uar
y, 2
01
2
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
01
2
May
, 20
13
Jan
uar
y, 2
01
4
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
01
4
May
, 20
15
Jan
uar
y, 2
01
6
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
01
6
May
, 20
17
Tota
l Em
plo
yme
nt
(Th
ou
san
ds)
(Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
+10,800(8.6%)
– 8,200(6.0%)
+6,400(5.0%)
– 12,900(9.6%)
+6,200(5.1%)
– 3,300(2.6%)
Latest: July 2017
Total Employment, 1970-2017(Indexed to Jan 1970)
123
134
194
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
180
200
220
Jan
uar
y, 1
97
0Fe
bru
ary,
19
71
Mar
ch, 1
972
Ap
ril,
19
73M
ay, 1
97
4Ju
ne
, 19
75Ju
ly, 1
97
6A
ugu
st, 1
977
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
97
8O
cto
ber
, 19
79
No
vem
be
r, 1
98
0D
ece
mb
er,
19
81
Jan
uar
y, 1
98
3Fe
bru
ary,
19
84
Mar
ch, 1
985
Ap
ril,
19
86M
ay, 1
98
7Ju
ne
, 19
88Ju
ly, 1
98
9A
ugu
st, 1
990
Sep
tem
be
r, 1
99
1O
cto
ber
, 19
92
No
vem
be
r, 1
99
3D
ece
mb
er,
19
94
Jan
uar
y, 1
99
6Fe
bru
ary,
19
97
Mar
ch, 1
998
Ap
ril,
19
99M
ay, 2
00
0Ju
ne
, 20
01Ju
ly, 2
00
2A
ugu
st, 2
003
Sep
tem
be
r, 2
00
4O
cto
ber
, 20
05
No
vem
be
r, 2
00
6D
ece
mb
er,
20
07
Jan
uar
y, 2
00
9Fe
bru
ary,
20
10
Mar
ch, 2
011
Ap
ril,
20
12M
ay, 2
01
3Ju
ne
, 20
14Ju
ly, 2
01
5A
ugu
st, 2
016
Ind
exe
d E
mp
loym
en
t(J
an
19
70
= 1
00
)
U.S.
PA
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
Latest: May 2017
Erie
Total Employment, Jan – July, 2017(Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
124,000
124,200
124,400
124,600
124,800
125,000
125,200
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July
To
tal E
mp
loy
me
nt
Erie
6,080,000
6,100,000
6,120,000
6,140,000
6,160,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June JulyT
ota
l Em
plo
ym
en
t
PA
151,000,000
151,500,000
152,000,000
152,500,000
153,000,000
153,500,000
154,000,000
Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July
To
tal E
mp
loy
me
nt
U.S.
Employment by Industry (% of Total), Erie vs U.S.
Source: U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA), Regional Economic Information System
(2015)
Unemployment Rate(Seasonally Adjusted)
Source: Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry
9.2%(Dec 1991)
4.3%(Mar 2000)
7.0%(Mar 2002)
4.5%(Mar 2007)
10.1%(Jan 2010)
5.6%
5.0%
4.3%
0.0%
2.0%
4.0%
6.0%
8.0%
10.0%
12.0%
19
90
19
91
19
92
19
93
19
94
19
95
19
96
19
97
19
98
19
99
20
00
20
01
20
02
20
03
20
04
20
05
20
06
20
07
20
08
20
09
20
10
20
11
20
12
20
13
20
14
20
15
20
16
20
17
Un
em
ply
me
nt
Rat
e
Erie
Latest: July 2017
U.S.
PA
PNC’s Northwest Pennsylvania Market Outlook: 2017.Q1(Source: PNC, http://www.pnc.com/economicreports)
The Evolution of Erie’s EconomyBrookings Institution Analysis: Advanced Industries
Source: Brookings Institution
Brookings Institution Analysis:Advanced Industries
Source:Brookings Institution
• I invite you to contact me to:
• share your ideas and suggestions
• let us know if you need assistance with finding, analyzing, and understanding economic data or other information related to the Erie economy
• discuss possible ERIE research projects you can conduct with us
Ken Louie, Director
(814) 898-6265
www.ERIEdata.org
Thank You!
