The State of Opportunity in America 2020 Report · America is based on a research initiative launched in 2017 when the Center for Advancing Opportunity ... could lead to 75,000 additional

THE STATE OF

OPPORTUNITY IN AMERICA

Understanding Barriers & Identifying Solutions 2 0 2 0

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Table of Contents

The conversation on removing barriers

to opportunity must include voices

from communities where those barriers

are highest.


About This ReportThis third report on the State of Opportunity in America is based on a research initiative launched in 2017 when the Center for Advancing Opportunity (CAO) was created through a partnership between Thurgood Marshall College Fund (TMCF), the Charles Koch Foundation and Koch Industries, in collaboration with Gallup, to give voice to members of “fragile communities” across the country.

The goal is to help fulfill CAO’s mission of moving people in fragile communities from promise to prosperity through supporting research. CAO addresses that mission through three pillars of focus: 1) ensuring all students have access to quality education, 2) identifying barriers to entrepreneurship and job growth and 3) supporting research to better understand and solve challenges within the criminal justice system. As part of their effort, CAO supports three research centers at historically Black colleges and universities (HBCUs), which disproportionately enroll low-income, first generation and academically underserved college students, many of whom come from fragile communities in the United States. CAO-supported centers are the Center for the Study of Economic Mobility at Winston-Salem State University, the Center for Justice Research at Texas Southern University and the Center for Educational Opportunity at Albany State University.

CAO defines fragile communities in America as those characterized by high proportions of residents who are struggling in their daily lives and have limited opportunities for social mobility. This definition is tied to the literature on concentrated poverty and disadvantage dating back to the mid-1980s. Although people are not born fragile, too many are born into situations that make it difficult to overcome adversity and build better lives for themselves and their families. Gallup’s research on which this report is based allows people living in such circumstances to identify barriers and offer solutions; as such, the report is important to stakeholders who are interested in an opportunity agenda.

Findings in this report are based on the third representative survey of 6,941 residents in fragile communities in 47 states and the District of Columbia from November 6, 2019 to January 7, 2020. The results serve as a baseline against which to compare future waves and assess the impact of events in the first half of 2020, most notably the effects of the COVID-19 crisis on residents’ perceptions of their health and economic status and the effects that recent instances of police misconduct, including the killing of George Floyd by a White police officer, may have had on the residents’ confidence in and perceptions of the U.S. criminal justice system.

The current report also features two analytical approaches that are new to this year’s State of Opportunity research:

• Gallup adjusted the sampling approach to include enough respondents to report independent results for the 11 largest combined statistical areas (CSAs) in the U.S. We hope that this change will help those who are working to expand access in the country’s major cities identify key barriers in low-income neighborhoods.

• Gallup added question sets in four areas of focus for researchers and policymakers who are working to improve conditions in high-poverty areas; these have been summarized in four indexes included in this report. The first measures perceptions of overall economic conditions in the area. The other three address conditions related to the Center for Advancing Opportunity’s three primary research pillars: education, economic mobility and entrepreneurship, and criminal justice.

The report compares scores in each dimension across demographic groups, as well as cities and regions with enough data to examine independently. The goal of condensing results is to help readers easily grasp the key takeaways from this rich data source and provide researchers with a starting point for conducting further investigations on these critical topics.


https://www.advancingopportunity.org/

https://www.wssu.edu/academics/colleges-and-departments/college-of-arts-sciences-business-education/center-for-study-of-economic-mobility/about-csem.html

https://www.wssu.edu/academics/colleges-and-departments/college-of-arts-sciences-business-education/center-for-study-of-economic-mobility/about-csem.html

https://centerforjusticeresearch.org/about-us/

https://ctrforeduopp.org/


Key Findings

ECONOMIC STATUS

• While almost half of Americans overall (47%) said in 2019 they were “living comfortably” on their current income,1 just one in five (20%) fragile community residents responded this way, with 35% saying they were finding it “difficult” or “very difficult” to live on their current income.

• When presented with a list of 14 potential barriers to opportunity and asked to choose those that most affect their community, fragile community members most often selected “a lack of enough jobs that offer career advancement” (39%) and “drug or alcohol addiction,” (35%).

• Commonly mentioned barriers to opportunity varied significantly by CSA and region. For example, Baltimore residents were most likely to name crime and violence, while those in the San Francisco/San Jose area were most likely to say available jobs were located too far from their neighborhoods.

1 Based on a separate Gallup survey of 1,026 Americans conducted April 23-May 23, 2019 via landline and mobile telephone.

HEALTH

• In 2019, just one-third of fragile community residents (33%) described their health as “excellent” or “very good,” while a similar percentage (31%) said it was “fair” or “poor.”

• Fifty-eight percent of fragile community residents said in 2019 they were satisfied with the availability of quality healthcare in their area, compared with 74% of Americans overall.

EDUCATION

• Fifty-five percent of fragile community residents overall say a college education is “very important,” today, with Black (67%) and Hispanic (70%) residents much more likely than White residents (37%) to feel this way.

• Just 28% percent of fragile community residents said they “strongly agree” or “agree” that all people in their area have access to an affordable college education if they want it. Among the 11 CSAs studied, Chicago-area residents are least likely to agree (21%).

• Overall, 40% of fragile community residents were “extremely satisfied” or “satisfied” with the quality of K-12 schools in their area. Satisfaction rates are much higher among residents who agree that local schools are committed to building students’ strengths.


CRIMINAL JUSTICE

• In 2019, 60% of Black fragile community residents said they know “some” or “a lot” of people who were treated unfairly by the police, compared with 31% of White residents and 39% of Hispanic residents in fragile communities. Further, about half of Black fragile community residents (49%) said they know “some” or “a lot” of people who were unfairly sent to jail, compared with less than a quarter of White (19%) or Hispanic (23%) residents.

• Nearly one-fourth (24%) of Black fragile community residents said they were “very confident” local police would treat them with courtesy and respect. One-third (33%) of Hispanic residents and almost half (47%) of White residents responded this way.

EMPLOYMENT AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP

• At a time when the national unemployment rate was around 3.5%, one in six fragile community residents in the labor force (16.7%) were jobless and looking for work.

• Fifteen percent of Black fragile community residents and 13% of Hispanic residents said in 2019 that they planned to start businesses in the next 12 months, compared with 4% of White residents. However, Black and Hispanic residents who planned to start businesses were significantly less likely than White residents to say they had the resources they needed to do so.

MINDSET

• Seventy percent of fragile community residents overall said they are “very confident” or “confident” they can improve their own lives, with Black (75%) and Hispanic (72%) residents somewhat more likely than White (65%) residents to feel this way.

• Among the demographic and attitudinal factors that best predicted fragile community residents’ confidence in their ability to improve their own lives, self-reported health status was the most important. However, items addressing education, social capital and residents’ awareness of their own strengths were also among those most strongly related to their confidence level.

IntroductionThis State of Opportunity report is based largely on data gathered in late 2019. However, the events of 2020 — including the coronavirus pandemic and widespread protests against police misconduct sparked by the killing of George Floyd — have only underscored the importance of studying issues facing Americans living in areas of concentrated poverty. We refer to such areas as “fragile communities” — not because their residents lack resilience, but because so many face numerous barriers to economic opportunity and the ability to lead fulfilling lives.

The killing of George Floyd, an unarmed Black man, by a White police officer, without intervention from three other officers on the scene, in Minneapolis on May 25, 2020, sparked mass protests for weeks across the U.S. and in other cities around the world.2 The incident and widespread outrage it prompted highlighted the ongoing tensions between Black Americans and law enforcement — tensions clearly reflected in the State of Opportunity Survey since it was launched in 2017.

Black fragile community residents have consistently been far more likely than White or Hispanic residents to say they think people like them are treated unfairly by their local police and legal system. Those perceptions are often based on personal experiences; in the 2019 results of the survey, 60% of Black residents said they know “some” or “a lot of” people who were treated unfairly by the police and 49% said they know some or a lot of people who were unfairly sent to jail (see Page 29). Such findings help explain the outpouring of anger and frustration following Floyd’s death and further highlight the need to understand and correct systemic problems in the U.S. criminal justice system.

The findings in this report also highlight the extent to which chronic health conditions are more common in areas of concentrated poverty. People living in such communities are more likely than Americans in general to say they have diabetes, high blood pressure and high cholesterol — all of which put them at higher risk for severe illness if they are infected by COVID-19.3 Further, higher rates of depression make fragile community residents more vulnerable to the psychological fallout related to the economic impact of the pandemic. Stress, social isolation and job loss related to the outbreak and responses to the outbreak could lead to 75,000 additional “deaths of despair” from drug and alcohol abuse and suicide in the U.S., according to one estimate.4

2 The Economist. (2020). How George Floyd’s death reverberates around the world. June 8, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2020 at https://www.economist.com/international/2020/06/08/how-george-floyds-death-reverberates-around-the-world

3 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2020). Coronivirus disease 2019: People who are at higher risk for severe illness. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/people-at-higher-risk.html.

4 Well-Being Trust. (2020). The COVID pandemic could lead to 75,000 additional deaths from alcohol and drug misuse and suicide. May 8, 2020. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://wellbeingtrust.org/news/new-wbt-robert-graham-center-analysis-the-covid-pandemic-could-lead-to-75000-additional-deaths-from-alcohol-and-drug-misuse-and-suicide/.

The events of 2020 have only underscored the importance of studying issues facing Americans living in areas of concentrated poverty with numerous barriers to economic opportunity.


Fragile community residents also have been more likely to face harsh economic consequences related to the pandemic and the response to it. They are more likely than other Americans to work in the service sector or the gig economy, and thus more vulnerable to job or income loss from stay-at-home orders and other protective measures. Those who kept working were less likely to have jobs that allowed them to work from home, forcing a painful choice between their livelihoods and their risk of being exposed to the virus.

METHODOLOGY

The current report is based on the third annual State of Opportunity Survey, conducted November 6, 2019-January 7, 2020. The questionnaire was mailed to 68,500 fragile community residents across the U.S., in both urban and rural areas, to get 6,941 completed surveys. For the purposes of this study, the following four criteria were used to select census tracts eligible for inclusion in the sample domain:

1. Employment - unemployment rate - percentage of working-age adults not in the labor force

2. Poverty rate - percentage of residents with household income below the poverty level - percentage of residents with household income below twice the

poverty level

3. Education - percentage of adults with a college degree

4. Composite score on index measuring five interrelated aspects of wellbeing: sense of career purpose, social relationships, financial security, relationship to community, and physical health

The process for selecting fragile communities in this study is based on U.S. census tracts, , which the Census defines as “small, relatively permanent statistical subdivisions of a county.”5 Census tracts are roughly equivalent to neighborhoods in many areas,6 with populations ranging from 1,200 to 8,000 residents. Census tracts were divided into quartiles using recent data in each of the four domains listed above. To be included in the sample, a tract had to be in the worst-performing quartile in at least three of the four.

Within the tracts selected for the study, residents were selected randomly to ensure statistical representativeness. Thus, while all respondents live in census tracts with low average incomes, for example, some may not themselves have low incomes. Table 1 displays a breakdown by income level, educational attainment and racial/ethnic group of the total U.S. population compared with Americans living in the census tracts selected for the study.

5 https://www2.census.gov/geo/pdfs/education/CensusTracts.pdf

6 https://libguides.lib.msu.edu/tracts


Approximately one out of seven census tracts in the U.S. was selected. At least one tract was selected in every state except North Dakota, Vermont and Wyoming.

A larger share of surveys was gathered from fragile communities in the 11 largest combined statistical areas (CSAs) in the U.S.7 to allow for independent reporting of data from these areas. Those CSAs include:

• Atlanta/Athens/Clarke County/Sandy Springs, Georgia

• Boston/Worcester, Massachusetts; Providence, Rhode Island

• Chicago/Naperville, Illinois

• Dallas/Fort Worth, Texas

• Houston/The Woodlands, Texas

• Los Angeles/Long Beach, California

• Miami/Port St. Lucie/Fort Lauderdale, Florida

• New York, New York; Newark, New Jersey

• Philadelphia/Reading, Pennsylvania; Camden, New Jersey

• San Francisco/San Jose, Oakland, California

• Washington, D.C.; Baltimore, Maryland; Arlington, Virginia

In cases where results from Washington, D.C. and Baltimore were found to be substantially different (as with residents’ concerns about crime and violence), results from the CSA were broken out separately for the two cities. The report also identifies fragile communities in the northern and central Appalachian region to provide another important point of comparison, representing largely rural areas with predominantly White residents.

The current analysis also aggregates results from questions in four key areas — local economic conditions, access to educational opportunities, views of the criminal justice system and entrepreneurial mindset — into indexes. The resulting scores allow for easy comparison of views on each topic across demographic groups, as well as the regions and urban areas included in the study. Scores on each index have been converted to a 1-to-100 scale, with higher scores indicating more favorable results. See Appendix A for more information on how the indexes were derived.

7 Combined Statistical Areas represent urban areas that reflect broad social and economic interactions, such as wholesaling, commodity distribution, and weekend recreation activities, and are likely to be of considerable interest to regional authorities and the private sector. If specified criteria are met, adjacent Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas, such as Washington DC and Baltimore, may become the components of a Combined Statistical Area. https://www.whitehouse.gov/wp-content/uploads/2018/09/Bulletin-18-04.pdf


1Snapshot of Fragile

Communities


Counties were selected for inclusion in the State of Opportunity Survey because they have high proportions of residents struggling economically and in terms of overall wellbeing. Comparisons with recent census data reveal the extent to which U.S. fragile communities differ from the overall population in terms of socioeconomic

markers and racial makeup.

Fragile community residents are almost twice as likely as U.S. adults overall to have annual household incomes under $35,000 — 53% vs. 28%, respectively — and less than one-third as likely to have household incomes of $90,000 or more. One in 10 fragile community residents have a bachelor’s degree or more, compared with one in three U.S. adults overall. And while Whites make up 63% of the total U.S. population, that figure falls to 38% in fragile communities, where most residents are Black (31%) or Hispanic (23%).

TABLE 1 . INCOME, 8 EDUCATION 9 AND R ACE /E THNICIT Y,1 0 TOTAL U.S . P OPUL ATION VS. FR AGILE COMMUNITIES

TOTAL U.S. POPULATION

U.S. FRAGILE COMMUNITIES

Household income

$14,999 or less 10% 23%

$15,000 to $34,999 18% 30%

$35,000 to $59,999 20% 24%

$60,000 to $89,999 18% 13%

$90,000 or more 35% 10%

Education

Less than a high school diploma 11% 11%

High school diploma or GED 28% 36%

Some college, no degree 18% 19%

Associate degree 10% 11%

Bachelor’s or more 33% 10%

Race/ethnicity

Black 13% 31%

Hispanic 18% 23%

White 60% 38%

Note: Due to rounding, totals may sum to 100%, +/-1%.

8 U.S. income data based on the 2018 Census Current Population Survey, retrieved at https://www.census.gov/data/tables/time-series/demo/income-poverty/cps-hinc/hinc-06.html

9 U.S. educational attainment figures based on 2019 Census data, retrieved at https://www.census.gov/data/tables/2019/demo/educational-attainment/cps-detailed-tables.html

10 U.S. race/ethnicity figures based on 2019 Census data, retrieved at https://www.census.gov/quickfacts/fact/table/US/PST045219


FINANCIAL VULNERABILITY

The socioeconomic differences in Table 1 are clearly reflected in fragile community residents’ responses about their financial situations. While almost half of Americans overall (47%) said in another 2019 Gallup survey that they are “living comfortably” on their current household income, this figure falls to one in five (20%) among fragile community residents nationwide. Conversely, more than a third of fragile community residents in the U.S. (35%) said they are finding it “difficult” or “very difficult” to live on their current income — more than twice the 14% of Americans overall who responded this way.

C ha r t 1 . Which of these phrases comes c losest to you r own fee l i ngs a bout you r house hold i ncome these days — l ivi ng comfor ta bly, get t i ng by on prese nt i ncome , f i nd i ng it d if f icu lt on prese nt i ncome , or f i nd i ng it ve r y d if f icu lt on prese nt i ncome?

Living comfortably Getting by Finding it difficult Finding it very difficult

White fragile community

residents

Hispanic fragile community

residents

Black fragile community

residents

Total fragile communities

Total U.S. population

47 38 9 5

20 45 22 13

26 45 19 10

15 44 25 16

17 50 20 13


Results from the three State of Opportunity Surveys conducted since 2017 indicate that fragile community residents are consistently close to twice as likely as U.S. adults overall to say there have been times in the past year when they haven not had enough money to buy food for themselves or their families. In 2019, those figures were 41% vs. 22%, respectively. When it comes to those who have had trouble paying for shelter in the past year, the gap between fragile community residents and U.S. adults overall is smaller, but was still statistically significant in 2019 (16% vs. 12%, respectively).

More than a third of fragile community residents overall in the U.S. say they are finding it “difficult” or “very difficult” to live on their current income — more than twice the 14% of Americans overall who respond this way.


C ha r t 2 . Have the re bee n t i mes i n the past 12 months whe n you d id not have e nough money to [buy food/provide s he lte r] for you or you r fa mi ly? % Yes

Total U.S. population U.S. fragile communities

Not Enough Money for Food Not Enough Money for Shelter

201920182017 201920182017

19

44

23

41

22

41

13

1819 19

12

16

201920182017 201920182017

19

44

23

41

22

41

13

1819 19

12

16

PERCEPTIONS OF ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY

Pessimism about local economic conditions reflects a lack of opportunity in fragile communities — but it can also be a debilitating problem. Recent years have seen a disturbing rise in “deaths of despair” in the U.S. — i.e., deaths from drug or alcohol abuse and suicides — which reflects a sense of hopelessness in many low-income areas.11

The State of Opportunity Survey confirms that Americans living in fragile communities are less likely than those elsewhere to be optimistic about their opportunities for success. While 80% of Americans overall agreed in a separate Gallup survey12 that people in the U.S. could get ahead by working hard, 64% of fragile community residents in the 2019 study said the same was true of people in their area. This figure from fragile community residents has also slightly declined from 68% in 2017 and 66% in 2018.

Results from four questions about fragile community residents’ views of local economic conditions were combined in an Economic Opportunity

11 Case, A. & Deaton, A. (2020). Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism. Princeton University Press.

12 2019 Gallup World Poll, U.S.


Index. Overall, the results represent residents’ optimism that the community they live in is growing and developing, and is thus fertile ground for economic opportunities.

• Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the area where you live are getting better, staying the same or getting worse?

• Can people in the area where you live get ahead by working hard, or not?

• Which of the following describes the area where you live? Good economy

• Which of the following describes the area where you live? Good place to find a job

Since all four questions have been asked in each State of Opportunity Survey since 2017, data from this index can be trended over three years. The results have been relatively consistent between 2017 and 2019, both among U.S. fragile community residents overall and among broad demographic categories. These trends offer evidence that economic perceptions were stable in America’s disadvantaged communities prior to the COVID-19 pandemic, supporting the use of the data as a benchmark against which to compare post-crisis perceptions.

C ha r t 3 . Economic O ppor tu nit y Index, 2017-2019

All fragile community residents Black residents Hispanic residents White residents

201920182017

35.337.9 36.8

31.5

38.540.6 41.5

34.637.6 37.1

41.5

35.5

The 2019 results indicate that optimism about local economic conditions was somewhat higher among urban fragile communities than rural fragile communities, and higher among White residents than Black or Hispanic residents. However, the largest differences are between residents with different political affiliations. It is a fact of American life in recent years that public opinion on a wide range of issues and circumstances differs sharply by political party affiliation. Economic perceptions are no exception. Generally, Americans tend


to be more optimistic if their party holds the White House.13 This effect is reflected in the 2019 data from fragile communities, as residents identifying as Republican produce far higher scores on the Economic Opportunity Index than those identifying as Democrats or Independents.

C ha r t 4 . Economic O ppor tu nit y Index, 2019

Independent

Democrat

Republican

Bachelor's degree or more

Associate degree

Vocational/technical school

High school diploma

Less than high school diploma

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Rural areas

Urban areas

Total fragile community

residents 37.6

38.1

35.2

41.5

35.5

37.1

36.3

37.3

38.3

32.8

42.7

49

34.2

35

Since Blacks and Hispanics surveyed disproportionately identify as Democrats, while Whites surveyed are more likely to identify as Republicans, it is difficult to separate the influence of race and party on the perceptions of fragile community residents. However, controlling for party affiliation does largely close the gaps in economic optimism between White and minority residents of fragile communities.

13 McCarthy, J. (2018). “2017 partisan gap in economic confidence one of the largest.” February 2, 2018. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://news.gallup.com/poll/226649/2017-partisan-gap-economic-confidence-one-largest.aspx.


TABLE 2 . ECONOMIC OPP ORTUNIT Y INDE X SCORES BY FR AGILE COMMUNIT Y RESIDENTS’ PART Y AFFIL IATION AND R ACE

REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS

Black/Hispanic* White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic White

49.6 50.4 33.5 37.7 33.7 37.7 36.1 35.5

*Sample includes too few Black Republicans to report separately.

Among the 11 CSAs studied, optimism about local economic conditions is highest among fragile community residents in the Atlanta and Dallas/Fort Worth areas. Optimism was lowest in the San Francisco/San Jose and New York City CSAs — the two urban areas with the highest cost of living among those surveyed.14

14 http://coli.org/quarter-1-2019-cost-of-living-index-released-3/

The biggest barrier to improved financial situtations, cited by

about four in 10 fragile community residents, is a lack of available jobs that provide career advancement opportunities.


C ha r t 5 . 2019 Economic O ppor tu nit y Index by CSA/re gion

San Francisco

New York

Appalachia

Los Angeles

Rural U.S.

Miami

Chicago

Philadelphia

Washington/Baltimore

Houston

Boston

DFW

Atlanta 45.7

43.6

39.9

38.0

37.3

36.6

36.6

35.3

35.2

34.8

34.3

33.6

32.2

BARRIERS TO IMPROVING ONE’S FINANCIAL SITUATION

The 2019 State of Opportunity Survey included a new question, which asked fragile community residents to review a list of 14 potential barriers to opportunity and choose the three that most affect people in their communities’ ability to improve their financial situations.

The most frequent response, identified by 39% of residents, is that there are not enough jobs that provide career advancement opportunities. This response is particularly common in rural areas, as almost half of rural fragile community residents (47%) cited it, compared with 37% of those in urban areas.

The concern among many fragile community residents that they only have access to “dead-end” jobs reflects other recent studies showing that while unemployment was historically low


in the late 2010s, Americans increasingly faced challenges related to job quality.15 A separate 2019 Gallup study on job quality in the U.S. showed that workers in low-income jobs are also less likely to be satisfied with many other aspects of their employment situation — including career advancement opportunities.16

TABLE 3 . THE FOLLOWING IS A L IST OF BARRIERS PEOPLE MAY FACE IN IMPROVING THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION. PLE A SE MARK THE THREE BIGGEST PROBLEMS FOR PEOPLE IN YOUR ARE A . % RESP ONDENTS WHO INCLUDE E ACH BARRIER IN THEIR THREE P OS SIBLE RESP ONSES

TOTAL U.S. FRAGILE COMMUNITIES

URBAN AREAS

RURAL AREAS

Not enough jobs that provide career advancement opportunities

39% 37% 47%

Drug or alcohol addiction 35% 34% 42%

Financial challenges, such as debt, that prevent people from taking risks

31% 32% 24%

Available jobs are located too far from neighborhood 31% 29% 37%

Not enough job openings 26% 22% 41%

Childcare or family responsibilities 22% 23% 18%

Not enough positive role models for young men 18% 19% 14%

Lack of job training services 18% 18% 17%

Lack of safety from crime or violence 17% 19% 8%

Physical or mental health problems 17% 18% 13%

Low quality of education available to children and teens 16% 17% 11%

Lack of community organizations focused on improving people's lives (such as churches or nonprofit organizations)

9% 10% 8%

Unfair police practices 6% 6% 4%

The effects of being in or having family members who are in prison

4% 4% 4%

Results from some responses to this question also point to significant differences by racial groups. Chart 6 includes the four responses that differ by at least 10 percentage points between White, Black and Hispanic fragile community residents. Whites are more likely than Blacks or Hispanics to cite drug and alcohol addiction and a lack of career-oriented jobs.

15 Kalleberg, A. & Howell, D. (2019). Declining job quality in the United States: Explanations and evidence. The Russell Sage Foundation Journal of the Social Sciences 5(4), Sept. 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2020 at https://www.rsfjournal.org/content/5/4/1.

16 Rothwell, J. & Crabtree, S. (2019). Not Just a Job: New Evidence on the Quality of Work in the United States. Gallup. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://www.gallup.com/education/267590/great-jobs-lumina-gates-omidyar-gallup-report-2019.aspx.


Blacks and Hispanics name the threat of crime and violence more often than Whites. Blacks are more likely than either Whites or Hispanics to name a lack of positive role models for young men.

C ha r t 6 . % Res ponde nts who i nclude e ach proble m a mong the three biggest ba rrie rs faci ng pe ople i n the i r commu nit y

Black residents Hispanic residents White residents

Not enough jobs that provide career

advancement opportunities

Not enough positive role models for

young men

Lack of safety from crime or violence

Drug or alcohol

addiction

44

2929

10

19

23

1517

26

44

3634

Differences by racial group are related to the urban/rural differences listed in Table 3, since 32% of White fragile community residents live in rural areas, compared with 11% of Black and 5% of Hispanic residents. Some race-based differences are nonetheless striking. The high proportion of White residents naming drug and alcohol addiction speaks to the disproportionate impact the opioid epidemic has had on predominantly White communities in the Appalachian region17 and the northeast.18 Black residents are more likely than White or Hispanic residents to name a lack of positive role models for young men among the most significant barriers to opportunity in their area.

There are also several noteworthy differences among the 11 CSAs spotlighted in the study. In the Washington, D.C./Baltimore CSA, 44% of fragile community residents include drug or alcohol addiction among the three biggest barriers faced by people in their communities, including 40% in the Washington, D.C. area and 46% in Baltimore.

17 Moody, L. SatterWhite, E. & Bickel, W. (2017). Substance Use in Rural Central Appalachia: Current Status and Treatment Considerations. Rural Mental Health 41(2): 123-135. Retrieved June 9, 2020 at https://www.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/pmc/articles/PMC5648074/

18 National Institute on Drug Abuse. (2020). Opioid Summaries by State. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://www.drugabuse.gov/drugs-abuse/opioids/opioid-summaries-by-state.


Fragile community residents in the Washington/Baltimore CSA are also among the most likely to name crime or violence as a top-three barrier (33%) — though this is driven primarily by Baltimore-area residents at 40%, vs. 18% of those in Washington’s fragile communities. Baltimore has long been plagued by high violent crime rates, but the problem has worsened in recent years; in 2019 the city posted its highest-ever per-capita murder rate19 and one of the highest rates of any major U.S. city for that year.

Fragile community residents in the San Francisco/San Jose CSA are more likely than those in any other CSA to say one of the biggest barriers to opportunity people in their area face is that available jobs are located too far from their neighborhood (44%). A 2019 study by economists at the Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that wage inequality in the area is among the highest in the country.20 In the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey, 71% of fragile community residents in the San Francisco/San Jose area said they were dissatisfied with the availability of good, affordable housing in their area, on par with the New York City area for the highest figure among the 11 CSAs studied.

Housing prices in the San Francisco/San Jose area rose sharply between 2000 and 2015, forcing many low-income families, particularly those in the city’s historically Black neighborhoods, to relocate.21 Geographically based inequality has soared, with residents of more affluent neighborhoods often seeking to restrict new housing developments — including lower-cost rental properties — in their areas.22

One result is that many low-income residents in the area face longer average commutes to access good jobs than those who can afford to live closer to economic centers. That translates to additional time and expense; for example, the Bay Area Rapid Transit (BART) service uses a pay-by-distance fare system, which disproportionately affects low-income commuters.23

SELF-REPORTED HEALTH STATUSES ARE LINKED TO FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS’ INCOME LEVELS

Asked in the 2019 study about their own health status, one-third of fragile community residents described it as “excellent” (9%) or “very good” (24%), while 36% said it was “good” and almost a third said it was “fair” (24%) or “poor” (7%). These responses significantly correlate with residents’ income levels; 43% of those with household incomes of less than $24,000 describe their health as “fair” or “poor,” compared with 14% of those with incomes of $90,000 or more.

19 Baltimore Sun Homicide Database. (2020). Baltimore homicides, 2019. Retrieved June 23, 2020 at https://homicides.news.baltimoresun.com.

20 Abel, J. & Deitz, R. (2019). Why are some places so much more unequal than others? Federal Reserve Bank of New York Economic Policy Review, 25(1), December 2019. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://www.newyorkfed.org/medialibrary/media/research/epr/2019/epr_2019_wage-inequality_abel-deitz.pdf

21 UC Berkeley & the California Housing Partnership. (2016). Rising Housing Costs and Re-Segregation in San Francisco. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://www.urbandisplacement.org/sites/default/files/images/sf_final.pdf

22 McElroy, E., & Szeto, A. (2018). The racial contours of YIMBY/NIMBY Bay Area Gentrification. Berkeley Planning Journal, 29(1), 7–44. Retrieved June 29, 2020 at https://escholarship.org/content/qt4sw2g485/qt4sw2g485_noSplash_a4a78f6499d4e010591b543fef163936.pdf

23 San Francisco Bay Area Rapid Transit District Office of Civil Rights. (2019). Title VI Fare Equity Analysis. April 25, 2019. Retrieved June 9, 2020 at https://www.bart.gov/sites/default/files/docs/Title%20VI%20Fare%20Equity%20Analysis%20for%20Regional%20Means%20Based%20Fares%20Pilot%20Program.pdf


C ha r t 7. Wou ld you s ay you r own he a lth , i n ge ne ra l , is exce l le nt , ve r y good, good, fa i r or poor? Res u lts a mong fragi le commu nit y res ide nts , by i ncome leve l

Excellent/very good Good Fair/poor

Household income $90,000 or more

Household income $60,000

to $89,999


to $59,999


to $34,999

Household income less

than $24,000

Total fragile community residents

33

25

36

31

48

29

33

4339

3635 35

35 41

22

45

22

42

13

55

15

31

14


These results highlight the link between health and socioeconomic status (SES) in the U.S.24 In many low-income communities, high-quality, fresh food and parks, sidewalks, and other environmental factors conducive to physical activity and a healthy lifestyle, are not as readily available as in other communities. Economists also note that people with lower incomes are more likely to engage in risky behaviors like smoking, binge drinking and poor dietary habits.25

Further, people living with financial hardships are more likely to experience anxiety, which takes a toll on the body over time and has been shown to increase the risk of chronic diseases.26 The complex relationship between health and SES calls for more in-depth research on the types of interventions most likely to improve specific health outcomes under conditions of concentrated poverty.27

The 2018 State of Opportunity report showed that fragile community residents were significantly more likely than Americans overall to say they currently have, or are being

24 Shaw, K., Their, K., Self-Brown, S. Roblin, D. & Barker, L. (2016). Chronic Disease Disparities by County Economic Status and Metropolitan Classification, Behavioral Risk Factor Surveillance System, 2013. Centers for Disease Control, September 1, 2016. Retrieved June 30, 2020 at https://www.cdc.gov/pcd/issues/2016/16_0088.htm.

25 Deaton, A. (2003). Health, Income and Inequality. National Bureau of Economic Research, Spring 2003. Retrieved June 30, 2020 at https://www.nber.org/reporter/spring03/health.html.

26 Khullar, D. & Chokshi, D. (2018). Health, income & poverty: Where we are & what could help. Health Affairs, October 2018. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://www.healthaffairs.org/do/10.1377/hpb20180817.901935/full/HPB_2017_RWJF_05_W.pdf

27 Goodman, J. & Conway, C. (2016). Poor health: When poverty becomes disease. UCSF Magazine, January 6, 2016. Retrieved June 30, 2020 at https://www.ucsf.edu/news/2016/01/401251/poor-health-when-poverty-becomes-disease.


treated for, one or more of four chronic health problems: diabetes, depression, high blood pressure and high cholesterol. The 2019 survey found similar rates of these conditions among fragile community residents nationwide. In each case, residents with less than a high school diploma were at least twice as likely as those with a bachelor’s degree or more to say they were currently being treated for one or more of the conditions.

C ha r t 8 . Do you cu rre ntly have , or a re you cu rre ntly be i ng tre ate d for ? % Yes , fragi le commu nit y res ide nts i n 2019, by e ducation leve l

High blood pressure High cholesterol Diabetes Depression

Bachelor's degree or

more

Associate degree

Vocational/technical training

High school diploma

Less than high school

diploma


residents

37

22

26

17

48

28

32

24

39

24

28

19

35

2028

26

19

32

2224

15

24

1416

8

FIFTY-EIGHT PERCENT OF FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS ARE SATISFIED WITH THEIR ACCESS TO HEALTHCARE, COMPARED WITH 74% OF AMERICANS OVERALL

Overall, 58% of U.S. fragile community residents said in 2019 they were satisfied with the availability of quality healthcare in their area — well below the 74% of Americans28 overall who said they were satisfied in a separate 2019 Gallup survey. Only about half of fragile community residents in rural areas (49%) were satisfied with their access to healthcare, compared with 60% of city-dwellers. However, the figure also varied significantly among residents in the 11 CSAs studied, from 71% in Boston to 50% in Los Angeles.

28 2019 U.S. Gallup World Poll


C ha r t 9. In the a re a whe re you l ive , a re you s atisf ie d or d iss atisf ie d with the ava i la bi l it y of qua l ity he a lthca re? % Satisf ie d a mong fragi le commu nity res ide nts , by CSA/re gion

Los Angeles

Appalachia

Miami

Dallas

Houston

San Francisco

Chicago

Atlanta

New York

Washington

Philadelphia

Boston 71

68

67

62

62

60

59

55

51

51

50

50

In September 2019, the Census Bureau reported that the number of Americans without health insurance had climbed the previous year for the first time in a decade, to about 8.5% of the population.29 In the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey, 15% of adults in U.S. fragile communities said they did not have health insurance, unchanged from the 2018 study. Among those who did have health insurance in 2019, 35% said it was from a current or former employer, while 26% were covered under Medicare and 20% under Medicaid.

29 Barnett, J. & Upton, R. (2019). Health Insurance Coverage in the United States: 2018. Census Current Population Reports, November 2019. Retrieved June 3, 2020 at https://www.census.gov/content/dam/Census/library/publications/2019/demo/p60-267.pdf


HALF OF FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS SAY THERE ARE PEOPLE THEY COULD TURN TO FOR HELP IN IMPROVING THEIR FINANCIAL SITUATION

One thread of research on concentrated poverty highlights a lack of “social capital” — i.e., networks of relationships that residents can draw on for support in identifying and seizing economic opportunities. Prior research has consistently demonstrated the importance of social networks in supporting economic mobility — for example, by helping people access jobs and training opportunities, providing financial support or advice in starting a business, or offering help with responsibilities like childcare that limit people’s ability to work or take classes.30

The 2019 State of Opportunity Survey included two new questions about fragile community residents’ access to local sources of support. Overall, about half of fragile community residents (51%) say there are people in their social network they could turn to for financial help and 58% say there are community organizations they could turn to.

Some observers have described declining social capital as a problem particularly affecting rural, predominantly White, low-income communities.31 However, the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey data offers little support for the idea that rural fragile communities are more likely than those in urban areas to suffer from low social capital, as results among urban and rural fragile communities are virtually identical on this topic. The differences among fragile community residents of different racial groups are also modest; 54% of White residents say there are people in their social network they could turn to, compared with 51% of Black residents and 48% of Hispanic residents.

C ha r t 10. If you we re looki ng for oppor tu nit ies to i mprove you r e conomic s ituation , s uch as f i nd i ng a job, get t i ng a bet te r job or sta r t i ng a bus i ness , a re the re you cou ld tu rn to for he l p? % Yes

People in your social network Organizations in your community

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Rural areas

Urban areas

Fragile community residents

overall

51

58

51

58

52

5954

61

51

57

48

57

30 Abbott, M. & Reilly, A. (2019). The Role of Social Capital in Supporting Economic Mobility. U.S. Department of Health and Human Services, May 2019. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://aspe.hhs.gov/system/files/aspe-files/261791/socialcapitalsupportingeconomicmobility.pdf

31 For example, Hillbilly Elegy (2016) by J.D. Vance and Alienated America (2019) by Timothy Carney.


There are some notable differences by CSA/region in these responses. In the Atlanta area, residents are significantly more likely to say there are people in their social network they could turn to for help improving their economic situation than to say there are community organizations they could turn to; however, the reverse is true in the Boston CSA. Miami is the only CSA in which well under half of fragile community residents say yes to both questions.

C ha r t 11 . If you we re looki ng for oppor tu nit ies to i mprove you r e conomic s ituation , s uch as f i nd i ng a job, get t i ng a bet te r job or sta r t i ng a bus i ness , a re the re you cou ld tu rn to for he l p? % Yes

People in your social network Organizations in your community

Miami

Los Angeles

Houston

San Francisco

Chicago

Dallas

Boston

Washington

Appalachia

Atlanta

Philadelphia

New York57

61

61

56

51

64

59

54

56

55

56

50

53

48

52

47

52

45

44

49

42

41

65

47


Results from the three State of Opportunity surveys indicate that fragile community residents are

consistently close to twiceas likely as U.S. adults overall to say there have been times in the past year when they haven’t had enough money to buy food for themselves or their families.


2Criminal Justice


Addressing problems with the U.S. criminal justice system is one of three key areas on which CAO focuses efforts to better understand and lower barriers to opportunity in low-income areas. Though the data in this report were collected in 2019, the prolonged and widespread protests in response to the killing of George Floyd on May 25, 2020, further demonstrate

the extent to which trust in law enforcement among Black Americans has in recent years been undermined by instances of police misconduct.32

With almost 1% of U.S. adults in prison, the country’s incarceration rate is five to 10 times higher than rates in Western Europe,33 due largely to differences in sentencing. Mass incarceration disproportionately affects majority-Black communities, given racial disparities in sentencing practices. Scholars and practitioners have demonstrated the high social costs of mass incarceration, as many of those imprisoned for minor crimes are denied opportunities to become productive citizens even after their release.34 The COVID-19 crisis has added to these costs by unnecessarily putting many at higher risk of contracting the virus. 35

Recent years have seen increased attention to criminal justice reform at both the federal and state levels. The bipartisan First Step Act, enacted in December 2018, overhauled federal sentencing laws, reducing minimum sentences for drug offenders.36 State-level trends in 2019 included sentencing reforms, expanding voting rights to former prisoners on felony probation or parole, and reducing collateral consequences, such as barriers to housing and employment for those who have completed their prison sentences.37

BLACK FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS ARE MUCH MORE LIKELY THAN WHITE OR HISPANIC RESIDENTS TO SAY PEOPLE LIKE THEM ARE TREATED UNFAIRLY BY LOCAL POLICE AND COURTS

As in previous State of Opportunity studies, the current data point to conflicted feelings about the criminal justice system among many fragile community residents, especially Black residents. While many are skeptical that local law enforcement will always act in their best interest, they also yearn for stability and freedom from violent crime in their neighborhoods. Overall, 58% of fragile community residents say most people in their area view their local police positively (50%) or very positively (8%), though this figure is much higher among White (67%) and Hispanic (65%) residents than among Black residents (44%).

In 2019, 22% of fragile community residents said their local police treat people like them “unfairly” or “very unfairly,” down slightly from 25% in 2018. The total percentage who felt they were treated unfairly or very unfairly by the courts or legal system also fell slightly, from 33% in 2018 to 30% in 2019. Notably, these changes were driven primarily by results among Hispanic residents, who were significantly more likely in 2019 than 2018 to say people like them were treated fairly by both police and the legal system. In 2019, as in previous years, Black fragile community residents were substantially more likely than White or Hispanic residents to say people like them are treated unfairly.

32 Enkins, E. (2016). Policing in America: Understanding Public Attitudes Toward the Police. Results from a National Survey. CATO Institute, December 7, 2016. Retrieved June 23, 2020 at https://www.cato.org/survey-reports/policing-america

33 National Research Council (2014). The Growth of Incarceration in the United States. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://doi.org/10.17226/18613

34 Alexander, M. (2010). The New Jim Crow: Mass Incarceration in the Age of Colorblindness. New York: New Press.

35 Park, K., Meagher, T. & Li, W. (2020). Tracking the spread of coronavirus in prisons. The Marshall Project, May 24, 2020. Retrieved July 1, 2020 at https://www.themarshallproject.org/2020/04/24/tracking-the-spread-of-coronavirus-in-prisons

36 Federal Bureau of Prisons. (2019). An Overview of the First Step Act. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.bop.gov/inmates/fsa/overview.jsp

37 Porter, N. (2020). Top Trends in State Criminal Justice Reform, 2019. The Sentencing Project, January 17, 2020. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.sentencingproject.org/publications/top-trends-in-state-criminal-justice-reform-2019/


The Criminal Justice Index provides a high-level view of the extent to which problems with the criminal justice system may hinder access to opportunity, based on fragile community residents’ experiences and perceptions (Appendix TBA lists the questions included in the index). As with the other indexes compiled for this analysis, higher scores on the Criminal Justice Index indicate more favorable responses.

Black Americans’ longstanding tensions with law enforcement are clearly reflected in the 2019 index results. Black residents’ scores were more negative overall, but particularly on the dimension measuring experienced injustice. Results among Hispanic residents were only slightly less positive than those among White residents.

Lower scores on the Criminal Justice Index among Black fragile community residents are also reflected in differences by CSA/region. Areas where Black Americans make up the largest share of fragile community residents — most notably the Washington/Baltimore and Philadelphia areas — index scores are the lowest, while they are highest in areas where fragile community residents are most likely to be White, including Boston, Appalachia and rural U.S. overall.

2019 CRIMINAL JUSTICE INDEX

C ha r t 12 . D if fe re nces by CSA/re gion

% Total index % Experiences dimension % Perceptions dimension

Philadelphia


Chicago

New York

DFW

Miami

Atlanta

Houston

San Francisco

Los Angeles

Rural U.S.

Boston

Appalachia70.9

69.872.2

68.2

68.467.6

68.1

69.466.8

67.3

66.567.4

67.3

64.870.5

66.4

67.264.9

66.4

68.863.7

63.4

61.765.7

63.1

66.658.9

60.7

61.259.9

60.5

60.759.2

58.9

58.058.9

56.8

58.454.5

C ha r t 13 . D if fe re nces by race a nd u rba n vs . ru ra l a re a

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Rural areas

Urban areas

All fragile community residents

65 65.963.9 64.3 65.163.268.1 69.466.8

73.3 72.773.8

53.757.7

49

69.1 68.169.9


C ha r t 14 . How fa i r ly or u nfa i r ly do you thi nk tre at pe ople l i ke you? % “ Unfa i r ly” or “ve r y u nfa i r ly”

Total fragile community residents Black residents Hispanic residents White residents

Courts and legal systemLocal police

11

2118

35

19

29

24

45

These differences correspond to Black fragile community residents’ greater likelihood to personally know people who they feel received unfair treatment from the criminal justice system. In results similar to those from the 2018 study, 43% of Americans living in fragile communities overall say they know “some” or “a lot of” people who were treated unfairly by local police — but this figure is about twice as high among Black residents (60%) as White residents (31%). Similarly, about half of Black residents (49%) say they know some or a lot of people who have been unfairly sent to jail, compared with just 19% of White residents.

C ha r t 15 . How ma ny pe ople , i f a ny at a l l , do you know who pe rs ona l ly had the fol lowi ng ha ppe n to the m — a lot , s ome , not ma ny or none at a l l? % “A lot ” or “s ome”

Total fragile community residents Black residents Hispanic residents White residentsWere unfairly sent to jailWere treated unfairly by the police

31

4339

60

19

30

23

49

Were unfairly sent to jailWere treated unfairly by the police

31

4339

60

19

30

23

49



As in the 2018 study, the need to address racial disparities in bail practices is clear in the current data. About four in 10 U.S. fragile community residents overall (39%) say they know “some” or “a lot” of people who have stayed in jail because they could not post bail. This figure is about twice as high among Black residents (57%) as among Hispanic (30%) or White (29%) residents.

Being detained increases the risk that those awaiting court hearings may lose their jobs or have their lives disrupted in other ways. Detainees are also more likely to be convicted of a crime, even if they haven’t committed one, because many agree to plea bargains in exchange for being released from jail. The current bail system also places undue burden on taxpayers in many areas because it costs far more to keep low-risk suspects in jail than it does to place them under supervision while they await trial.38

The CAO-supported Center for Justice Research at Texas Southern University analyzed data from Harris County prison, which processes over 100,000 individuals a year, or about 8,000 inmates on any given day — the third most in the country. The data reveal that over 72% of individuals in the Harris County jail awaiting a determination of guilt or innocence are Black or Hispanic. Black Americans make up only 19.7% of Harris County’s population, but 50% of all jail bookings.39 The initial criminal justice system touchpoints are the police, who disproportionately arrest Black Americans for low-level, non-violent offences, with 80% of arrests in America being for misdemeanors.40

ALMOST HALF OF WHITE RESIDENTS, COMPARED WITH ONE-FOURTH OF BLACK RESIDENTS, ARE “VERY CONFIDENT” POLICE WILL TREAT THEM WITH RESPECT

The U.S. Justice Department emphasizes the importance of positive interactions in building trust and mutual respect between law enforcement officers and the communities they serve.41 In that light, the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey included a question asking fragile community residents how confident they are that they would be treated with courtesy and respect in interactions with local police.

Overall, 36% nationwide say they are “very confident” they would be treated with courtesy and respect when interacting with local police, while an additional 44% are “somewhat confident.” The proportion who are “very confident” rises somewhat with age, from 32% among residents age 18 to 29, to 40% among those age 60 and older.

There are more substantial differences by racial group; almost half of White residents (47%) are “very confident,” compared with one-third of Hispanic residents (33%) and about one-fourth (24%) of Black residents. Notably, however, 70% of Black residents are at least “somewhat confident” they would be treated with courtesy and respect. As with scores on the Criminal Justice Index overall, fragile community residents’ confidence they would

38 Dorn, S. (2017). “Bail reform could save U.S. taxpayers $78 billion, study says.” Cleveland.com, January 31, 2017. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.cleveland.com/metro/2017/01/bail_reform_could_save_us_taxp.html

39 Center for Justice Research. (2019). Racial Disparities in Houston’s Pretrial Population. Texas Southern University. Retrieved July 22, 2020, at https://centerforjusticeresearch.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/01/Pretrial-Report.pdf

40 Natapoff, A. (2018). Punishment Without Crime: How Our Massive Misdemeanor System Traps the Innocent and Makes America More Unequal. New York: Basic Books.

41 U.S. Department of Justice. (2016). Importance of police-community relationships and resources for further reading. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.justice.gov/crs/file/836486/download


be treated respectfully by the police varies by CSA, largely according to the proportion of residents who are Black. In the Philadelphia and Washington/Baltimore CSAs, where confidence is lowest, most fragile community residents are Black (59% and 67%, respectively).

C ha r t 16 . If you had a n i nte raction with the pol ice i n you r a re a, how confide nt a re you that they wou ld tre at you with cou r tesy a nd res pe ct?

% Very confident % Somewhat confident % Not very confident % Not confident at all

36

44

147

47

10

40

4

24

10

46

20

33

4

49

14


Whiteresidents

Blackresidents

Hispanicresidents



SPOTLIGHT

Center for Justice Research at Texas Southern UniversityHoward Henderson, who holds a doctorate in criminal justice, is the founding director of the Center for Justice Research and a professor at Texas Southern University. In the interview that follows, Henderson shares his thoughts on approaching criminal justice reform from the local level.

The CJR is devoted to solutions for an equitable criminal justice system. What research model does the center use to serve this purpose?

The center leads research projects and engages in local partnerships to produce innovative solutions for local criminal justice reform. As part of our research model, we spend a considerable amount of time talking to members of the community and local decision-makers, like police chiefs, district attorneys and policymakers. We use our conversations with these groups to formulate our research questions. We’re working at the grassroots level, speaking with the people who are working on criminal justice reform issues and those who are affected by the issues. Cultural sensitivity is also an important part of our research model because if you overlook individuals’ experiences, you miss the nuances between groups.

What areas are top of mind right now for criminal justice reform?

In the wake of George Floyd’s death, we created a National Police Reform Advisory group that brings together the brightest minds to conduct a non-partisan assessment of all the police reform bills being proposed. We’re approaching reform from the bottom-up, which has shown to be more effective than top down because 80% of the criminal justice system is local. We build those relationships with the communities and the key local decision-makers to ensure communities aren’t left with policies that are inapplicable to their cities.

How are COVID-19 and the Black Lives Matter movement impacting your work in criminal justice reform?

Criminal justice has to be situated within a broader societal context — you can’t separate it from education, economics and public health; they’re all intricately interwoven. What’s interesting is that we now have opportunities to make sure science and research govern decisions in the criminal justice system, whereas in the past it was governed by emotion. Now we have a bipartisan push and the First Step Act is a good example. In terms of the protests, they are the most diverse in the history of this country. The movement is not only about police reform; it encompasses other civil liberties. Criminal justice has been the catalyst and a vehicle through which we’ll see tremendous change in this country.

What are some of the policy solutions the Center is examining?

We have to think about policies related to police hiring practices and examine the personality types and characteristics of officers who are more likely to use force versus those who don’t get involved in use-of-force cases. Environmental design is also important — how do we design neighborhoods that facilitate good relations between the community and the police?

From the community, we need to understand the people who are not directly impacted by criminal justice issues — the people who don’t live in urban areas and watch this stuff on TV — and ask how they feel. If they have positive perceptions, what makes them feel positively toward the police and makes them feel the police do their job well? Finally, we need to find out from policymakers themselves what makes it challenging for them to pass equitable justice system policies. If we do not move from protest to policy, we can’t get anything done.


FIFTY-ONE PERCENT OF FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS WOULD LIKE POLICE TO SPEND MORE TIME IN THEIR AREA

Regardless of their level of trust in the police and court system, most fragile community residents want the stability and order that effective law enforcement provides. The proportion of residents who say crime in their area has increased outnumbers the proportion who say it has decreased by four to one (45% vs. 11%, respectively), with results largely consistent between urban and rural areas, and across racial groups.

C ha r t 17. In the last few ye a rs , do you be l ieve cr i me i n you r a re a has i ncre ase d, staye d the s a me or de cre ase d?

Increased Stayed the same Decreased

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Rural areas

Urban areas


residents

11

45 1144

45 1243

46 747

45 946

44 1443

45 1144


Preliminary FBI crime statistics showed declines in both violent and property crime in the first half of 2019, compared with the same period in 2018.42 However, crime rates vary widely at the local level, and are generally higher in urban and low-income areas. The 2019 survey found substantial differences in crime perceptions among fragile community residents across CSAs and regions. Most of those in the Baltimore43 (65%) and Philadelphia (60%) areas said crime has increased in recent years. Residents in the Washington, New York and Miami areas were most likely to say crime has decreased, though in each case this figure rises only to about one in five.

42 U.S. Federal Bureau of Investigation. (2020). 2019 Preliminary Semiannual Uniform Crime Report Released. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.fbi.gov/news/stories/2019-preliminary-semiannual-uniform-crime-report-released-012120

43 Though Washington and Baltimore are in the same CSA, their results are presented separately here because they differ significantly between fragile community residents in the two cities.


C ha r t 18 . In the last few ye a rs , do you be l ieve cr i me i n you r a re a has i ncre ase d, staye d the s a me or de cre ase d?

Increased Stayed the same Decreased

Miami

Boston

New York

San Francisco

Atlanta

Dallas

Chicago

Total rural U.S.

Houston

Washington

Los Angeles

Appalachia

Philadelphia

Baltimore 65 531

60 1030

47 746

47 1241

47 2132

46 1143

46 747

44 1145

43 1146

42 1148

42 1048

41 2237

37 1944

37 1943



The perception that crime is increasing is related to fragile community residents’ likelihood to have experienced violent incidents across the areas spotlighted in the study. Nationwide, one-third of residents (33%) said they have witnessed a situation in which someone was seriously injured or killed, or in which they feared they themselves would be seriously injured or killed. This figure varied only somewhat between men (35%) and women (30%) and among Black (36%), White (31%) and Hispanic (25%) residents. Among the 11 CSAs studied, however, it ranged from a high of 44% in the Chicago and Washington/Baltimore areas to a low of 25% in the Miami area.

In areas where they are more likely to see crime increasing, fragile community residents were also more likely to say they would like police to spend more time in their area. That leads to a seemingly paradoxical finding: even though Black fragile community residents viewed the criminal justice system less favorably than White residents nationwide in 2019, they were somewhat more likely than White residents to say they would like the police to spend more time in their area — 52% vs. 46%, respectively. Hispanic residents were more likely than Blacks and Whites to respond this way (59%).

C ha r t 19. Wou ld you rathe r the pol ice s pe nd more t i me , the s a me a mou nt of t i me or less t i me tha n they cu rre ntly s pe nd i n you r a re a?

More time Same amount of time Less time

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Rural areas

Urban areas


residents51 643

53 641

41 951

46 549

52 840

59 37

Note: Due to rounding, totals may sum to 100%, +/-1%; numerals shown when 5% or higher.


About half (51%) of fragile community residents would like

police to spend more time in their area, with Black (52%) and Hispanic (59%) residents more

likely than White residents (46%) to respond this way.


3Education


Education is another essential pillar for the Center for Advancing Opportunity. Access to high-quality schooling is linked to higher incomes and better health and wellbeing, among other positive outcomes.

It should be reiterated that data presented in this report were collected in 2019, prior to the coronavirus pandemic. However, employment figures gathered in the second quarter of 2020 clearly showed that those with less education were disproportionately affected by the job losses caused by the COVID-19 crisis. The national unemployment rate jumped dramatically from historically low levels in February 2020 to more than 14% by April. That figure rises to more than one in five (21%) among Americans with less than a high school diploma — and while the unemployment rate among bachelor’s-degree holders has also risen, it remains far lower (8.5%) than for those with less formal education.

TABLE 4. CHANGE IN UNEMPLOYMENT R ATES BY EDUCATION LE VEL DURING COVID-19 CRISIS 4 4

MARCH 2020 APRIL 2020 CHANGE

Less than a high school diploma 6.8% 21.2% +14.4

High school graduate 4.4% 17.3% +12.9

Some college/associate degree 3.7% 15% +11.3

Bachelor’s degree and higher 2.5% 8.4% +5.9

These unemployment data are particularly concerning for fragile communities where educational attainment rates are lower than among the total U.S. population. About one in 10 fragile community residents in 2019 reported having a bachelor’s degree or higher, compared with 33% of U.S. adults overall.45

44 Employment status of those age 25 and over. Accessed May 11, 2020 at https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.t04.htm; https://www.washingtonpost.com/business/2020/05/09/jobs-report-demographics/

45 From 2010 to 2019, the percentage of the adult population that has earned a bachelor’s degree or higher increased from 29.9% to 36%. Data accessed May 25, 2020 at https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/educational-attainment.html.

Current unemployment figures are particularly concerning for fragile communities where educational attainment rates are lower than among the total U.S. population.


MOST FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS ARE DISSATISFIED WITH THE ACCESS TO EDUCATIONAL OPPORTUNITIES IN THEIR AREA

Across five types of educational programs, well under half of fragile community residents are “extremely satisfied” or “satisfied” with the availability and quality of each in their area. Four in 10 fragile community residents (40%) are satisfied or extremely satisfied with the quality of their area’s K-12 schools. Fewer — 28% — are satisfied or extremely satisfied with the availability of early childhood education programs, which prior studies have shown are particularly beneficial to children in low-income families. For example, a longitudinal study published in 2015 showed that disadvantaged children who attended early learning centers in a Midwestern city scored higher than a control group on 4th grade math and reading tests.46

Perceptions of postsecondary education opportunities are no more optimistic. Just 28% of fragile community residents nationwide agree on some level that all people in their area have access to an affordable college education if they want it. Residents were also asked about the availability of education programs geared toward creating paths to success for those who do not seek a four-year degree. Just under one-third are satisfied to some degree with the availability of job training/certification programs (31%) and career and technical education programs (32%) in their area — though more (43%) are satisfied with the availability of community college programs.

46 Bakken, L., Brown, N. & Downing, B. (2017) Early childhood education: The long-term benefits, Journal of Research in Childhood Education, 31:2, 255-269. Retrieved June 9, 2020 at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/full/10.1080/02568543.2016.1273285

nationwide agree on some level that all people in their area have access to an affordable college education if they want it.

28%of fragile

community residents


2019 EDUCATION INDEX

C ha r t 20. D if fe re nces by CSA/re gion

Total index K-12 dimension Postsecondary dimension

Philadelphia

Chicago

New York


Boston

San Francisco

DFW

Houston

Miami

Los Angeles

Atlanta

Appalachia52.7

49.655.8

50.7

47.653.0

50.7

50.650.3

49.3

48.249.9

48.8

48.349.3

48.8

46.950.3

48.5

47.349.5

47.4

45.647.4

46.1

43.847.4

45.2

44.046.6

44.8

42.347.2

44.8

44.245.2

C ha r t 21 . D if fe re nces by race a nd u rba n vs . ru ra l a re a

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Rural areas

Urban areas

All fragile community residents

49.6 48.151 49.1 47.950.2 51.9 49.2

54.552 50.2

53.7

46.5 4548

51.4 49.653

Results for the Education Index are divided into two dimensions. The first combines three questions on children’s access to high-quality K-12 education in fragile communities, including the extent to which schools focus on developing students’ strengths. The second asks about access to postsecondary education, including opportunities that do not necessarily require a four-year commitment to gain valuable career skills (see Appendix TBA for specific questions compiled for the index).

Education Index scores do not vary much between urban and rural areas, nor by racial groups within fragile communities, though scores from both dimensions are somewhat lower among Black residents than among Whites or Hispanics. Particularly in the case of K-12 public schools, resources devoted to education depend on local property taxes — so schools in low-income communities across the country tend to face similar challenges.

There is more variation among the 11 CSAs spotlighted in the study. Most fragile community residents in the Washington/Baltimore, Chicago, New York and Philadelphia areas are least likely to be satisfied with local access to postsecondary education opportunities.


C ha r t 22 . Fragi le commu nity res ide nts’ s atisfaction with f ive t ypes of e ducationa l oppor tu nit y i n the i r a re a

Extremely satisfied Satisfied

Availability of community college programs

Availability of CTE programs

Availability of job training or certificate programs

Quality of kindergarten-through-grade-12 schools

Availability of affordable early childhood education 28

40

31

32

43

5 23

8 32

6 25

7 25

10 33

FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS ARE SPLIT ON CHILDREN’S ACCESS TO HIGH-QUALITY EDUCATION

Fragile community residents are about as likely to disagree as they are to agree that all children in their area have access to high-quality education. While about one-third (32%) agree (by selecting 4 or 5 on a 5-point agreement scale), another third disagree. White residents are somewhat more likely to agree (36%) and Black residents are least likely to agree (29%) that all children in their area have access to high-quality education. Overall results are similar to 2018 findings, where 35% of fragile community residents strongly agreed or agreed that all children have access to high-quality public schools.

More than half of residents (52%) say all children in their area have access to the transportation they need to get to school each day, though about one-fourth (24%) disagree.

C ha r t 23 . Ple ase rate you r leve l of agree me nt with the fol lowi ng state me nts .

Strongly agree 4 3 2 Strongly disagree

All children in the area where you live have access to the

transportation they need to get to school each day.

All children in the area where you live have access to high-quality education.

34 16 171814

25 13 112230

Note: Due to rounding, totals may sum to 100%, +/-1%.| 41 |

Copyright © 2020 Gallup, Inc. All rights reserved.

STRENGTHS-BASED APPROACH BOOSTS VIEWS OF EDUCATION QUALITY.

Results from the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey also offer clues for ways to boost perceptions of education quality in U.S. fragile communities. Only one-third of residents overall (33%) agree that schools in their area are committed to building the strengths of each student, including just 13% who strongly agree. Results are similar among residents with children under 18 in their households.

C ha r t 24 . Ple ase rate you r leve l of agree me nt with the fol lowi ng state me nt: Schools i n my a re a a re commit te d to bu i ld i ng the stre ngths of e ach stude nt . Ple ase use a 1-5 s ca le whe re 1 me a ns “strongly d is agree” a nd 5 me a ns “strongly agree .”

Strongly agree Agree Neither agree nor disagree Disagree Strongly disagree

13

2036

17

13


Individualized and developmental models of learning have gained prominence in recent years as alternatives to a more standardized, “deficit-based” educational approach that focuses predominantly on what students cannot do. Results from the Gallup Student Poll have demonstrated that a focus on strengths development, in particular, helps boost students’ engagement with school and their hope for the future.47 Strategies for developmental and strengths-based education put more emphasis on individualized and project-based learning, using portfolio-based assessments rather than relying predominantly on standardized tests as measures of student progress.48

47 Zakaria, Z., Care, E. & Griffin, P. (2016). Scaffolding instruction where it matters: Teachers’ shift from deficit approach to developmental model of learning. Journal of Education and Practice, 7(23), 2016. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://eric.ed.gov/?id=EJ1112908

48 Darling-Hammond, L. Flook, L. Cook-Harvey, C. Barron, B. & Osher, D. (2019). Implications for educational practice of the science of learning and development. Applied Developmental Science, 24(2), February, 2019. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.tandfonline.com/doi/10.1080/10888691.2018.1537791


Among fragile community residents who strongly agree their area’s schools are committed to building students’ strengths, 38% are “extremely satisfied” with the quality of K-12 schools. Among those who do not strongly agree schools are committed to building students’ strengths, just 3% are extremely satisfied with quality.

C ha r t 25 . How s atisf ie d or d iss atisf ie d a re you with e ach of the fol lowi ng i n you r a re a? The qua l ity of k i nde rga r te n-through-grade -12 s chools

Extremely satisfied Satisfied Neither satisfied nor dissatisfied Dissatisfied Extremely dissatisfied

Resutls among fragile community residents who

do not strongly agree schools are committed to

building strengths

Results among fragile community residents

who strongly agree schools are committed

to building strengths

38 45 11

30 36 21 9


Logistic regression analysis was conducted to better understand the link between the perception that schools are committed to building strengths and K-12 school quality. Results show that even after controlling for a range of other factors that may influence respondents’ perceptions — including income and education levels, race and political affiliation — the view that schools are committed to building students’ strengths strongly predicts respondents’ level of satisfaction with school quality.

Perceived importance of a college education has fallen among White fragile community residents

In 2019, 79% of fragile community residents said a college education is “very important” (55%) or “important” (24%), with Black and Hispanic residents being more likely than White residents to say it is very important. The overall percentage of fragile community residents who say college is very important has fallen somewhat from 84% in 2018 and 88% in 2017. The drop has been sharpest among White residents, from 49% in 2017 to 37% in 2019. To some extent, the trend reflects changing views among the U.S. population generally — nationally, about half of U.S. adults (51%) currently say a college education is very important, down from 70% in 2013.49

49 Marken, S. (2019). Half in U.S. now consider college education very important. Gallup, December 30, 2019. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.gallup.com/education/272228/half-consider-college-education-important.aspx


Among the U.S. adult population, the most recent Census Bureau statistics show significant increases in the rate of educational attainment across racial and ethnic groups, but attainment gaps persist between Whites and non-Whites. In 2019, 40.1% of non-Hispanic Whites, age 25 and older, held a bachelor’s degree or higher — up from 33.2% in 2010. The rate of postsecondary degree attainment also increased markedly in that time among Blacks (19.8% to 26.1%) and Hispanics (13.9% to 18.8%), but among both groups, postsecondary degrees remain less common than they are among Whites.50

The rise in postsecondary attainment rates observed among Blacks and Hispanics over the last decade is likely bolstered by a strong belief in the value of a college education. Results from the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey are similar to those from the 2018 study: strong majorities of Blacks (67%) and Hispanics (70%) in fragile communities think a college education is very important, and they are more likely than Whites (37%) to say this.

C ha r t 26 . How i mpor ta nt is a col le ge e ducation today? Res u lts a mong U. S . fragi le commu nity res ide nts

Very important Important Somewhat important Not at all important

Women

Men

Whites

Hispanics

Blacks

Total 2019

Total 2018

Total 2017 66 22 11

62 22 13

55 24 18

37 31 27 5

67 20 11

70 18 11

50 26 19 5

59 22 17


As with perceptions of economic opportunity (see Page 12), the gap between White and minority fragile community residents regarding the importance of college is reflected in party affiliations. A separate Gallup poll in June 2019 found that among Americans overall, Republicans are much less likely than Democrats to say a college education is very important — 41% vs. 62% — with Independents between the two at 50%. A comparable difference is seen in the 2019 data from fragile communities; overall, 39% of Republican residents say college is very important, compared with 67% of Democrats and 50% of Independents.

50 U.S. Census. (2020). U.S. Census Bureau Releases New Educational Attainment Data. March 30, 2020. Retrieved June 9, 2020 at https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press-releases/2020/educational-attainment.html.


SPOTLIGHT

Center for Educational Opportunity at Albany State University Kathaleena Monds, who holds a doctorate in instructional technology, is the founding director of the Center for Educational Opportunity, where Joy Jones serves as outreach and program coordinator. In the interview that follows, Monds and Jones share the educational-opportunity challenges they see fragile communities face.

The center focuses on how equity issues are impacting education. What areas of research are currently top of mind?

Monds: A big area of interest for us is the absence of African American male teachers in the classroom. We also consider the concept of proximity to opportunity, especially in rural America. For example, transportation can be a major barrier to opportunity. Another topic is parents’ engagement in their kids’ education. We have a role in generating research findings and need to spread those findings to families that can advocate for change. Finally, given the rise of Black homeschoolers, we are focused on exploring the compelling reasons they choose to homeschool. There is a dearth of research on this growing educational trend.

Jones: We look at the educational ecosystem — from social determinants of health to the families’ living conditions, including housing, employment, food security, public safety and the geography of opportunity. So many of the issues that spurred the Brown v. Board of Education in 1954 persist today. Discrimination is legislated and codified so thoroughly that it is nearly impossible for fragile families to escape poverty and access opportunity. There’s a chasm, not just a gap, especially when you consider that more than one in 10 U.S. children come of age in persistently poor families.

How is the center thinking about inviting students of color into the teaching profession?

Monds: We partner with researchers on understanding ways to increase the number of

male African American teachers and we’re trying to expose students to the profession. Post-Brown v. Board of Education, the unintended consequence of integration was that many people of color lost jobs in education. The issues are bigger than just entering the door — there’s also the role of school boards and superintendents, the doorkeepers who do the hiring and firing. Another issue is that even teachers of color who want to improve the lives of fragile communities are often voiceless because making change creates the risk of job loss. As we think of tackling education opportunity, it must be from all these angles.

How do some of the cultural elements in a classroom impact educational opportunity?

Jones: Foremost, I would say curriculums are seldom culturally nuanced. Youth often don’t see themselves in the lessons, and the testing instruments that measure their aptitudes are culturally biased. Many schools are described by whether or not the student body receives free lunch and negative assumptions are made about students who simply can’t afford their lunch — they tend to be assigned to low learning-ability groups and seldom have access to advanced study and gifted education. People think that poor and genius don’t go together, but if you live in a resource-poor environment, you learn to be resourceful in ways that tap into your genius. All of society’s institutions must improve in order for education to improve.

Monds: Labels have these long-standing impacts. Until we can tackle the cultural issues, it will be hard to separate teachers’ perceptions of Black, Brown and poor kids in the classroom from the labels. We are working with a teacher-leader who works to promote racial equity among her peers. Strategies to ensure culturally relevant training practices are implemented and the teaching of critical race theory to teachers is paramount. We need teachers who will tap into the unique gifts of all children and who will be compassionate toward all children, not just the ones who look like them.


Importantly, however, sizable gaps between racial groups remain within each partisan group of U.S. fragile community residents. For example, 46% of White Democrats in fragile communities say college education is very important vs. 70% of Black Democrats and 78% of Hispanic Democrats.

TABLE 5. % FR AGILE COMMUNIT Y RESIDENTS WHO S AY COLLEGE EDUCATION IS “ VERY IMP ORTANT,” BY PART Y AFFIL IATION AND R ACE

REPUBLICANS DEMOCRATS INDEPENDENTS

TotalBlack/

Hispanic*White Total Black Hispanic White Total Black Hispanic White

39% 53% 32% 67% 70% 78% 46% 50% 61% 70% 37%

*Sample includes too few Black Republicans to report results separately.

The perceived importance of college education among minority residents of fragile communities is encouraging and highlights the importance of targeted scholarship funds and other programs that make it more accessible to them. Conversely, lower perceived importance among White residents represents an increasingly serious challenge for some communities, as technologies enabled by artificial intelligence continue to eliminate jobs that are routinized and do not require the specialized knowledge or training of a post-secondary education.51

Fragile community residents’ perceptions of access to college vary by city

Though fragile community residents generally place high importance on postsecondary education, less than a third (28%) agree that all people in their area have access to an affordable college education if they want it, including just 13% who strongly agree; nearly half (47%) strongly disagree or disagree.

These results vary significantly among the 11 CSAs studied. More than three in 10 fragile community residents in Miami (32%) agree that all people have access to an affordable college education, while just 21% of respondents in Chicago and Philadelphia agree. In 2012, the Florida College Access Network, hosted by the University of South Florida, built upon an existing collaborative movement in the state to boost higher education attainment for Floridians. Reports suggest these efforts may have made some difference, as 40.2% of Miami-Dade County residents now hold a two- or four-year degree or credential, up from 37.9% in 2013.52

51 Lund, S., Manyika, J., Segel, L., Dua, A, Hancock, B., Rutherford, S. & Macon, B. (2019). The future of work in America: People and places, today and tomorrow. McKinsey Global Institute, July 11, 2019. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://www.mckinsey.com/featured-insights/future-of-work/the-future-of-work-in-america-people-and-places-today-and-tomorrow

52 Florida College Access Network. (2019). Degree Attainment Profile: Miami-Dade. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at http://floridacollegeaccess.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/02/Miami-Dade2019Feb.pdf


C ha r t 27. Us i ng a 5-poi nt s ca le whe re 1 me a ns “strongly d is agree” a nd 5 me a ns “strongly agree ,” p le ase rate you r leve l of agree me nt with the fol lowi ng state me nt: Al l pe ople i n the a re a whe re you l ive have access to a n af forda ble col le ge e ducation if they wa nt it .

Strongly agree Agree

Philadelphia

Chicago


Boston

Appalachia

Total rural U.S.

New York/Newark

San Francisco/San Jose

Houston

Los Angeles

Dallas/Fort Worth

Atlanta

Miami 18 14 32

18 13 31

17 13 30

10 20 30

9 21 30

15 13 28

12 16 28

12 16 28

13 13 26

10 12 22

9 13 22

14 7 21

10 11 21


Just 28% of fragile community residents nationwide agree on some level that all people in their area have access to an

affordable college education if they want it.


4Employment and Entrepreneurship


The 2019 State of Opportunity study was conducted prior to the onset of the COVID-19 crisis, at a time of extremely low unemployment in the U.S. Nevertheless, inequalities in education and access to career-oriented jobs in growth industries were reflected in wide disparities in the quantity and quality of jobs available in different areas.

Fragile communities included in the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey were characterized by relatively high unemployment; 8.1% of residents in the labor force (i.e., either employed or not employed and looking for a job) were jobless and actively looking for work at a time when the national unemployment rate was around 3.5%.53 Black fragile community residents were more likely than White or Hispanic residents to be unemployed, at 12.4%. Fragile community residents in urban areas were more likely than those in rural areas to be unemployed — 8.6% vs. 5.6% respectively. The unemployed percentage also drops sharply to 2.7% among fragile community residents with a bachelor’s degree or more.

C ha r t 28 . % Fragi le commu nit y res ide nts who we re u ne mploye d i n 2019

Bachelor'sdegree or

more

Some college/

Associate degree

Vocational/technical

school

High school

graduate

Less than high

school diploma

Rural areas

Urban areas

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Fragile communities

overall

8.1

12.4

5.6

6.7

8.6

5.6

10.4

8.8

6.0

9.9

2.7

These figures will serve as important points of comparison for post-COVID-19 employment conditions in U.S. fragile communities. With low rates of postsecondary education, fragile community residents are more likely to rely more on “low-skill” or “middle-skill” service-sector jobs. As discussed in Chapter 2, unemployment rates increased more dramatically during the crisis among those with less than a four-year bachelor’s degree. Millions of Americans in the hospitality and food-service industries alone — where post-secondary education is not typically required — lost in their jobs.54

When unemployed fragile community residents were asked in 2019 about their biggest challenge in finding a job, the most common responses were that there weren’t enough openings (29%) or that available jobs didn’t pay enough (19%). However, job-seekers also commonly mentioned several factors in their own lives as their biggest challenges, including lack of reliable transportation to get to work (12%), lack of qualifications for available jobs (11%), health problems (9%), and the need to care for children or other family members (8%).

53 https://tradingeconomics.com/united-states/unemployment-rate#:~:text=Unemployment%20Rate%20in%20the%20United,percent%20in%20May%20of%201953.&text=source%3A%20U.S.%20Bureau%20of%20Labor%20Statistics

54 Paine, N. (2020). The industries hit hardest by the unemployment crisis. FiveThirtyEight, May 15, 2020. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://fivethirtyeight.com/features/the-industries-hit-hardest-by-the-unemployment-crisis/


2019 ENTREPRENEURSHIP INDEX

C ha r t 29. D if fe re nces by CSA/re gion

Los Angeles

Boston


San Francisco

Chicago

Appalachia

Philadelphia

Houston

New York

DFW

Miami

Atlanta 27.2

27.1

25.7

23.5

23.3

22.9

21.8

21.3

19.8

19.7

18.5

18.5

C ha r t 30. D if fe re nces by u rba n vs . ru ra l a re a, race a nd e ducation

Bachelor's degree or more

Associate degree

Vocational/ technical

school

High school

graduate


diploma

WhiteHispanicBlackRuralUrbanFragile communities

overall

21.9 22.319.6 20

22.5 23.2

15.5

19.6

24.5

28.9

24.9

The Entrepreneurship Index includes questions measuring self-employment in fragile communities, as well as residents’ desire or plans to start businesses. Index scores do not vary much by racial group or between urban and rural areas.

However, there are significant differences by education level, with the highest scores among associate degree holders. Further, residents with vocational or technical training score just as highly as those with a bachelor’s degree or more. Such findings suggest forms of postsecondary education that require less time to complete and are oriented around technical or career skills can help residents create their own opportunities through self-employment or business ownership.

Entrepreneurial intent is particularly common among fragile communities in the Atlanta and Miami areas; in each case about one in six residents say they plan to start a business in the next 12 months. In the Boston and Los Angeles areas, by contrast, less than one in 10 plan to start businesses.


C ha r t 31 . In you r opi nion , which of the fol lowi ng is the biggest cha l le nge for you i n f i nd i ng a job? Res u lts a mong u ne mploye d fragi le commu nit y res ide nts i n 2019

Available jobs do not offer benefits that you need

Available jobs are not desirable to you

Discrimination against people like you

You need to care for children or other family members

Health problems prevent you from taking jobs

You're not qualified for the jobs that are available

You do not have reliable transportation to get to work

Available jobs don’t pay enough

Local area does not have enough job openings

29

19

12

11

9

8

5

4

3

Note: Due to rounding, total may sum to 100%, +/-1%.

FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS ARE MUCH LESS LIKELY THAN U.S. WORKERS OVERALL TO SAY THEIR JOB LETS THEM DO WHAT THEY DO BEST

The top two challenges named by unemployed fragile community residents point to shortfalls in both the quantity and quality of employment opportunities available to them. Wages for low-skill and middle-skill jobs have remained flat or fallen in recent decades,55 as more such jobs have been automated or outsourced to countries with cheaper labor. Like other high-income countries, the U.S. faces a crucial challenge in creating pathways to retraining programs that low-skill workers can more easily access, and which provide more direct links between education and employment.56

Disparities in job quality are also a growing concern regarding low-income workers in the U.S. A recent Gallup study of job quality found that lower incomes are associated with lower satisfaction across a range of other job characteristics, including employee benefits, career advancement and training opportunities, and engagement in one’s day-to-day work.57

Such differences are also reflected in the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey. One central aspect of employee engagement is workers’ perceptions that their jobs allow them to do what they do best. A separate 2019 survey of U.S. workers overall found that 76% strongly agreed

55 Congressional Research Service. (2019). Real Wage Trends, 1979 to 2018. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://fas.org/sgp/crs/misc/R45090.pdf

56 The Economist. (2017). Special report: Retraining low-skilled workers. January 12, 2017. Retrieved July 2, 2020 at https://www.economist.com/special-report/2017/01/12/retraining-low-skilled-workers

57 Conducted with support from Lumina, Omidyar and the Gates Foundation, report available at https://www.gallup.com/education/267590/great-jobs-lumina-gates-omidyar-gallup-report-2019.aspx


that at work they have the opportunity to do what they do best every day.58 Employed fragile community residents in the State of Opportunity Survey were much less likely to “strongly agree” with this statement at 40%, though an additional 25% agreed “somewhat.”

C ha r t 32 . O n a 5-poi nt s ca le , whe re 5 me a ns “strongly agree” a nd 1 me a ns “strongly d is agree ,” p le ase rate you r leve l of agree me nt with the fol lowi ng ite m: At work , you have the oppor tu nity to do what you do best eve r y day

Strongly agree 4 3 2 Strongly disagree

Postgraduate degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree

Vocational/technical school

High school diploma

Less than high school diploma

Employed fragile community residents, 2019

U.S. employees overall, 2019

123149

21 11 53132

25 7 92337

11 72850

19 10 92240

30 5 91342

19 8 72540

61276


There are some significant differences by education level among employed fragile community residents. Most notably, those with vocational or technical training are particularly likely to strongly agree that their work affords them the opportunity to do what they do best every day at 50%, on par with the 49% of those with postgraduate degrees who respond this way, and significantly higher than the percentages of associate degree (37%) and bachelor’s degree (32%) holders who strongly agree. (See Table 1 on Page 10 for the percentage of fragile community residents overall in each education category).

A similar pattern emerges when employed fragile community residents are asked how strongly they agree with the statement, “Your current job makes the best use of your talents.” Overall, 32% strongly agree — but this figure is highest among those with vocational training (43%) or a postgraduate degree (40%) and lower among those with an associate (31%) or bachelor’s (24%) degree.

58 2019 Gallup World Poll, U.S.


Vocational or technical training that leads to professional certifications may be particularly valuable in helping fragile community residents find fulfilling jobs. Gallup’s recent research among U.S. workers overall, which found that those with professional certifications and no other postsecondary education were second only to those with Ph.D.s in terms of their average satisfaction with 10 job-quality characteristics. What’s more, certification holders are particularly likely to be found in industries and jobs that are less vulnerable to automation, such as healthcare, education and real estate.59

FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS WHO ARE SELF-EMPLOYED FULL-TIME ARE PARTICULARLY LIKELY TO SAY THEY USE THEIR STRENGTHS ON THE JOB

Self-employment may be a factor in the higher number of employed fragile community residents with professional certifications who say feel they are able to use their strengths and talents on the job, as some industries and job types require certifications to become licensed as independent contractors.

C ha r t 33 . Fragi le commu nity res ide nts who a re se lf-e mploye d fu l l-t i me a re more l i ke ly to strongly agree that the i r jobs ma ke the best use of the i r ta le nts a nd a l low the m to do what they do best .

Full-time employed for an employer Part-time employed for an employer Full-time self-employed Part-time self-employed

Strongly agree: Your current job makes the best use of your talents.

Strongly agree: At work, you have the opportunity to do what you do

best every day.

39

59

37

30

53

28

36

32

59 Gallup. (2020). Professional Certifications Offer Workers with No College Degree a Pathway to Good Jobs. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://luminafoundation.org/wp-content/uploads/2020/04/professional-certifications-offer-a-pathway-to-good-jobs.pdf


SPOTLIGHT

Center for the Study of Economic Mobility at Winston-Salem State University Craig Richardson, who holds a doctorate in labor economics, is the founding director of the Center for the Study of Economic Mobility and a distinguished professor of economics. In the interview below, he highlights the work CSEM is doing to improve social mobility in Winston-Salem, North Carolina.

The mission of CSEM is to better understand the causes of low economic mobility. What is the Center’s unique research approach?

The Center focuses on Forsyth County in North Carolina and how to break the barriers to opportunity there. Winston-Salem is bisected by Route 52 and the east side gets less transportation investment. Combined with the hollowing out of the manufacturing sector downtown, it has left a section of the city behind. Our work is all about social mobility in the county and those who have been left behind.

We take a multidisciplinary approach, combining fields like psychology, economics and geography. That’s what’s exciting — getting out of the silos. We all have blind spots within our disciplines, so we continuously engage so we’re designing what people want. I, an economist, might talk to my psychology colleagues who then tell me I’m assuming rationality under certain conditions. Then comes the question — what does it mean to be rational under conditions of poverty or stress? We ask questions from different viewpoints and the outcomes of our work are on policy levers at the local level. We aim to create “wins” for all three stakeholders — the government, businesses and individuals. We don’t want them to treat policy interventions as a charity case, but rather as an investment.

CSEM highlights many transportation issues. What are some specific initiatives the center is working on?

We do highlight a lot of transportation issues. Recently, we produced a documentary called Bus

Stop Jobs that documents a day in the life of a bus rider in Winston-Salem, North Carolina. We followed a woman from 6 a.m. until the evening in this 11-minute film. We highlight the challenges of balancing work, raising a child, getting him to school, and balancing home-life, given the long commutes that bus riders encounter. Because of this documentary, the Winston-Salem Foundation awarded eight transportation grants — it really opened people’s eyes to the issue of getting people across town.

In your research, what have you found that makes it difficult for people to climb the social ladder?

The center partnered with Winston-Salem State on research about benefits and found that social benefits are wiped away when people start to earn more money. This ends up creating poverty traps and makes it difficult for people to climb the social mobility ladder — it’s what we call the disincentive desert. After people earn more, their take-home pay lessens, so they are disincentivized to progress in their work. We can address the poverty trap by working with employers to determine ways to improve economic mobility aside from wage increases.

In my forthcoming article, “Benefits Cliffs, Disincentive Deserts and Economic Mobility,” I offer ideas employers can implement for workers who are receiving social benefits and are only incentivized to work a set number of hours. We really believe that the ascension that someone gets when moving up that ladder is more important than the level of income. Rather than focusing on the jump in income, people have to learn to earn their way up. The problem in Winston-Salem is that the bottom rungs of the ladder are sawed off. People can be ambitious, but they can’t ascend.


Both technical/vocational education and two-year associate degrees substantially increase fragile community residents’ perception that they have the education they need to get the type of job they want. Overall, just over half of fragile community residents (52%) strongly agree or agree with this statement. This number rises to almost two-thirds among those with vocational training or an associate degree, though it rises still further among those with a bachelor’s (81%) or post-graduate degree (91%).

C ha r t 34 . Ple ase rate you r leve l of agree me nt with the fol lowi ng state me nt: I have the ne cess a r y e ducation to get the type of job I wa nt .

Strongly agree Agree

Postgraduate degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree


school

High school diploma


diploma


residents

28

23

52

13

15

28

21

21

42

33

32

64

40

24

64

46

34

81

75

16

91

Postgraduate degree

Bachelor's degree

Associate degree


school

High school diploma


diploma


residents

28

23

52

13

15

28

21

21

42

33

32

64

40

24

64

46

34

81

75

16

91

Note: Due to rounding, strongly agree/agree figures may sum to the total, +/-1%.

BLACK AND HISPANIC FRAGILE COMMUNITY RESIDENTS ARE MORE LIKELY THAN WHITE RESIDENTS TO SAY THEY PLAN TO START BUSINESSES

Given the importance of small businesses in creating jobs and supporting the health of local economies, entrepreneurship is another key area of focus for CAO. A 2017 report from the U.S. Small Business Administration noted that areas with low average incomes tended to have fewer businesses, and that residents of such areas are less likely to be self-employed than other Americans.60

In response to the 2019 State of Opportunity Survey, 6% of fragile community residents said they worked full-time as a self-employed individual. An additional 10% said they planned to start their own business in the next 12 months, coinciding with the 9% seen in the 2018

60 Kugler, M., Michaelides, M. Nanda, N., & Agbayani, C. (2017). Entrepreneurship in Low-Income Areas. U.S. Small Business Administration, September 2017. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://cdn.advocacy.sba.gov/wp-content/uploads/2019/05/09135924/rs437-Low-Income-Entrepreneurship.pdf


survey. This figure is substantially higher among Black (15%) and Hispanic (13%) residents than White residents (4%). However, White fragile community residents who plan to start businesses are more likely than Black or Hispanic residents to say they have the resources they need to do so.

C ha r t 35 . Entre pre ne u ria l i nte nt a nd res ou rces a mong fragi le commu nit y res ide nts

Planning to start a business in the next 12 months Among those who are planning to start businesses, percentage who say they have the

resources to do so

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Total


residents

10

35

35 10

4

28 15

35 13

47

More than a third of fragile community residents (36%) say they have considered becoming a business owner in the past, but decided not to. This figure is much more consistent across racial groups than the proportion currently planning to start a business; White residents are only slightly less likely to say they have considered it, at 34%, than Black (37%) or Hispanic (37%) residents.

Lack of savings is easily the most common reason these residents give for deciding not to start a business (65%). However, 39% said not knowing where to start and 31% said lack of business knowledge were factors in their decisions, highlighting the need for prospective entrepreneurs in fragile communities to not only access capital, but instruction and advice too.


C ha r t 36 . Which of the fol lowi ng have playe d a role i n you r de cis ion NOT to sta r t a bus i ness? Res u lts a mong fragi le commu nity res ide nts who have thought a bout sta r t i ng a bus i ness but de cide d not to

You worry about the competition

Health challenges

You worry that running a business will impact your work-life balance

You have no knowledge about running a business

You worry that the odds of success of a new start-up are very low

You like the security of a steady income

You have an idea, but don’t know where to start

You do not have enough personal savings to start a business 65

39

38

35

31

17

14

9


Both technical/vocational education and two-

year associate degrees substantially increase

fragile community residents’ perceptions that they have the education they need to get the

type of job they want.


5Mindset


Between 2014 and 2017, the average life expectancy in the U.S. declined for the first time in decades, with studies indicating the drop was due, in part, to rising mortality rates among 25- to 64-year-olds from drug or alcohol abuse and suicide.61 That shocking trend has led to greater focus on the drivers of these types of fatalities

— which some researchers have termed “deaths of despair”62 — and their pervasiveness in poverty-stricken communities. The State of Opportunity Survey asks fragile community residents several questions to gauge their sense of self-efficacy — specifically, the belief that they have the ability to improve their lives and achieve goals in several areas that represent important aspects of wellbeing.

When asked how confident they are that they can improve their own lives, 34% of fragile community residents say they are “very confident,” while an additional 36% are simply “confident.” Just 7% overall say they are “not at all confident.” Those in rural areas are only slightly less likely than those in urban areas to be very confident (32% vs. 35%, respectively). However, this figure varies more substantially by race. Forty percent of Black fragile community residents and 38% of Hispanic residents are very confident they can improve their lives, compared with 28% of White residents.

C ha r t 37. How confide nt a re you that you ca n i mprove you r own l ife — ve r y conf ide nt , conf ide nt , s omewhat conf ide nt or not at a l l conf ide nt?

Very confident Confident

White residents

Hispanic residents

Black residents

Rural areas

Urban areas


34

36

70

35

36

70

32

37

69

28

37

66

40

35

75

38

34

72

Note: Due to rounding, some very confident/confident numbers may sum to the total percentage, +/- 1%.

61 Woolf, S. & Schoomaker, H. (2019). Life expectancy and mortality rates in the United States, 1959-2017. JAMA. 2019;322(20):1996—2016. Retrieved June 4, 2020 at https://doi.org/10.1001/jama.2019.16932

62 Case, A. & Deaton, A. (2020). Deaths of Despair and the Future of Capitalism. Princeton University Press.


Residents’ confidence rises steadily with education; 59% of those with less than a high school diploma are “very confident” or “confident” they can improve their own lives, vs. 83% of those with a bachelor’s degree or higher. However, many other factors discussed in this report may impinge on people’s feelings that they can control their own destinies. Multiple regression analysis is a technique that allows for an investigation on the combination of demographic and attitudinal variables included in the State of Opportunity Survey, helping identify which are most predictive of fragile community residents’ confidence that they can improve their own lives.

The set of variables selected for the final regression model collectively account for about one-third (32%) of the variation in fragile community residents’ confidence that they can improve their own lives. It includes variables from four areas that are particularly important to residents’ feelings of self-efficacy: education, health, social capital and local economic conditions (see Appendix B for compete regression results).

TABLE 6 . REGRES SION ANALYSIS HIGHLIGHTS VARIABLES THAT BEST PREDICT FR AGILE COMMUNIT Y RESIDENTS’ CONFIDENCE THAT THE Y CAN IMPROVE THEIR OWN L IVES 6 3

BETA64

Would you say your own health, in general, is excellent, good, fair or poor? .260

Please rate your level of agreement with the following statement. I have the necessary education to get the type of job I want.

.176

If you were looking for opportunities to improve your economic situation, are there people in your social network you could turn to for help?

.176

Please rate your level of agreement with the following statements. You have a good sense of your unique strengths and talents.

.153

Racial group (White or non-White) .134

Which of the following describe the area where you live? Good economy .104

Do you currently have, or are you currently being treated for, depression? .069

Residents’ self-perceived health status is the strongest predictor in the model, emphasizing the impact of poor health — particularly chronic illnesses like diabetes or depression — on people’s motivation to strive for better lives. Notably, having been diagnosed with depression is included in the model because it helps predict residents’ confidence that they can improve their lives independent of overall health status.

63 R2 (total variance explained) = .32

64 Beta values are standardized coefficients that represent the strength of the relationship between each independent variable and the dependent variable (confidence that fragile community residents can improve their own lives), while controlling for the other independent variables included in the model.


Though confidence rises with education level, the analysis found that two other education-related items in the survey were more predictive of fragile community residents’ confidence they can improve their lives than educational attainment per se. The first is their perception that they have the education they need to get the jobs they want, suggesting that it matters less to residents’ confidence that they have higher levels of education than that they have the right level of education for their career and financial goals. The second education-related item in the model is residents’ level of agreement that they have a good sense of their own strengths and talents — a testament to the value of strengths-focused education in instilling confidence and hope in young people.

Finally, two items that support residents’ ability to pursue economic opportunity are included in the model: their perception that the local economy is generally good and the presence of people in their social network who they can turn to for help achieving their financial goals.

The State of Opportunity Survey also asks fragile community residents how confident they are in their ability to achieve their goals in five specific aspects of their lives: career/work, relationships, health, finances and education. In each case, less than a third said they were “very confident” — however, most were at least “confident” in four of the five areas. Notably, residents were least likely to be confident in their ability to achieve educational and financial goals — two areas directly related to economic mobility.

C ha r t 38 . How confide nt a re you i n you r a bi l it y to achieve goa ls that you set for you rse lf i n e ach of the fol lowi ng a re as — ve r y conf ide nt , conf ide nt , s omewhat conf ide nt or not at a l l conf ide nt?

Very confident Confident

Financial goalsEducation goalsHealth goalsCareer or work goals

Goals for relationships with friends/

family members

31

38

69

26

34

60

20

37

57

20

33

53

16

31

47

Note: Due to rounding, some very confident/confident numbers may sum to the total percentage, +/- 1%.


These results are generally consistent by racial group and fragile community residents living in urban vs. rural environments. However, there is somewhat greater variation among the 11 urban areas spotlighted in the study, particularly regarding career and financial goals. Fragile community residents in Atlanta are most confident in their ability to achieve such goals, while those in the Dallas/Fort Worth area are least confident.

Notably, Atlanta-area residents are also among the most likely to agree they have a good sense of their unique strengths and talents, at 78%, while Dallas/Fort Worth-area residents are among the least likely to agree, at 60%. Such differences point to possible avenues for further research, exploring drivers of self-efficacy that are specific to each CSA among residents of low-income communities, and the types of interventions most likely to help residents envision paths to fulfilling careers and greater financial security.



When asked how confident they are that they can improve their own lives, 34% of fragile community residents say they

are “very confident,” while an additional 36% are simply

“confident.”


ConclusionIt has never been more important to expand access to opportunity for Americans who see little cause for hope that they can build better lives for themselves and their families. Even before the traumatic events of 2020, circumstances in many of the country’s fragile communities were dire, as the rise in “deaths of despair” makes clear. While crime and instability has seen a long-term decline in some cities, it remained a debilitating problem for many residents in metro areas starkly divided by race and class, such as Baltimore and Chicago.

The State of Opportunity Survey highlights the array of challenges that prevent residents of U.S. fragile communities from escaping poverty and contributing to economic development and job creation in their areas. These data allow researchers to study how various factors — such as low education, poor health, joblessness and lack of job creation — reinforce one another to keep millions of Americans focused on day-to-day survival with little chance to follow longer-term paths to success.

The vulnerability created by such formidable barriers to opportunity has been clear in 2020, as poverty-stricken areas suffered disproportionately from COVID-19,65 with the related economic consequences and the killing of George Floyd and others by police highlighted ongoing inequality and injustices in how law enforcement treats Black Americans. These traumatic events will not have been for nothing if they increase the urgency with which leaders in government and the private sector seek solutions to break up pockets of concentrated poverty and remove barriers for millions of Americans to lead more secure, productive and rewarding lives.

65 Centers for Disease Control and Prevention. (2020). COVID-19 in Racial and Ethnic Minority Groups. Retrieved June 23, 2020 at https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/need-extra-precautions/racial-ethnic-minorities.html


ABOUT GALLUP

Gallup delivers analytics and advice to help leaders and organizations solve their most pressing problems. Combining more than 80 years of experience with its global reach, Gallup knows more about the attitudes and behaviors of employees, customers, students and citizens than any other organization in the world.

ABOUT THURGOOD MARSHALL COLLEGE FUND

Thurgood Marshall College Fund (TMCF) is the nation’s largest organization exclusively representing the Black College Community. TMCF member-schools include the publicly supported historically black colleges and universities (HBCUs) and predominantly Black institutions, enrolling nearly 80% of all students attending black colleges and universities. Through scholarships, capacity-building and research initiatives, innovative programs, and strategic partnerships, TMCF is a vital resource in the PK-12 and higher education space. The organization is also the source of top employers seeking top talent for competitive internships and good jobs. To date, the organization has awarded more than $250 million in such assistance to its students and member-schools.

ABOUT THE CENTER FOR ADVANCING OPPORTUNITY

In 2016, TMCF received a $26 million gift from the Charles Koch Foundation and Koch Industries to launch the Center for Advancing Opportunity (CAO) to expand educational, social and economic opportunities in our nation’s most fragile communities through original research, educational programs and direct engagement with residents. By listening to different community voices and supporting scholars and students committed to making a positive difference, we work to empower people eager to put ideas into action and discover mutually beneficial solutions to bolster fragile communities across the country.

CAO is building the capacity of HBCUs to engage talented faculty in researching these issues and building a pipeline of talent that can contribute to developing solutions. In 2017, CAO established its first campus-based research center at an HBCU — The Center for the Study of Economic Mobility at Winston-Salem State University. In 2018, CAO established two more centers — The Center for Justice Research at Texas Southern University and The Center for Educational Opportunity at Albany State University.

Each year, CAO invites HBCUs to submit research proposals to broaden the field of scholarship on FCs and engage undergraduate and graduate students in the identification and implementation of evidence-based solutions. For information about future opportunities to apply for grants, please visit www.advancingopportunity.org.


ABOUT THE CHARLES KOCH FOUNDATION

Everyone has the ability to learn, contribute and succeed if they have the freedom and opportunity to do so. That’s why, more than 50 years ago, Charles G. Koch began supporting education. The Charles Koch Foundation, founded in 1980, continues this work by funding research and education that help people expand their horizons, develop their skills and help others.

ABOUT KOCH INDUSTRIES, INC.

Koch Industries owns a diverse group of companies integral to creating life’s basic necessities: food, shelter, clothing and transportation. With 100,000 employees in more than 60 countries worldwide, including 60,000 in the U.S., Koch Industries strives to make life better through innovative solutions that set industry best practices for quality and responsibility. Koch Industries is also an unapologetic advocate for the principles of a free and open society, which are applied across Koch companies every single day and contribute to its overall success. For more news and stories, visit www.KOCHind.com.


Appendix A: Opportunity IndexesThe 2019 State of Opportunity survey was used to develop four indexes summarizing results from a set of questions in each of four topic areas: economic opportunity, education, criminal justice and entrepreneurship. In the initial stage of the index development process, the research team identified all survey questions that seemed relevant to each research objective.

The first stage of the analysis focused on investigating the interrelationships of the input items. In some cases, this required recategorizing the survey questions to ensure all input items used a similar scale. Correlations of 5-scale variables were measured using Pearson’s correlation coefficient; tetrachoric correlations were used to measure the association of binary variables. Researchers then used factor analysis to inspect the structure of the data, primarily using varimax rotation and principal axis factoring; alternate methods, such oblique rotations and maximum likelihood estimations, were used to test robustness. These analyses helped to further narrow the final set of input items and whether indicators should be grouped into sub-indexes.

In the final indexes, results from each component question are weighted equally and the scores are normalized on a 0-to-100 scale, with higher scores indicating more favorable results in that research area. Score reliability was tested using Cronbach’s Alpha. Researchers consulted with relevant experts at CAO and Gallup to ensure the content validity of all indexes. The following tables list the final set of survey items included in each index.

ECONOMIC OPPORTUNITY INDEX

Right now, do you think that economic conditions in the area where you live are getting better, staying the same, or getting worse?

Can people in the area where you live get ahead by working hard, or not?

Which of the following describe the area where you live? Good economy

Which of the following describe the area where you live? Good place to find a job


EDUCATION INDEX

Sub-index: Primary or secondary education opportunities

Please rate your level of agreement with the following statements. All children in your area have access to high-quality education.

Please rate your level of agreement with the following statements. Schools in my area are committed to building the strengths of each student.

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following in your area? The quality of kindergarten through grade 12 schools.

Sub-index: Post-secondary education opportunities

Please rate your level of agreement with the following statements. All people in the area where you live have access to an affordable college education if they want it.

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following in your area? The availability of community college programs

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following in your area? The availability of job training or certificate programs.

How satisfied or dissatisfied are you with each of the following in your area? The availability of career and technical education (CTE) programs

CRIMINAL JUSTICE INDEX

Sub-index: Experiences

How many people, if any, do you know who personally had the following happen to them? Were treated unfairly by the police

How many people, if any, do you know who personally had the following happen to them? Stayed in jail because they didn’t have any bail money

How many people, if any, do you know who personally had the following happen to them? Were unfairly sent to jail


CRIMINAL JUSTICE INDEX

Sub-index: Perceptions

How much confidence do you have in the police in your area?

How much respect do you have for the police in your area?

If you had an interaction with the police in your area, how confident are you that they would treat you with courtesy and respect?

How fairly or unfairly do you think each of the following treat people like you? Local police

How fairly or unfairly do you think each of the following treat people like you? The courts/legal system

ENTREPRENEURSHIP INDEX

Thinking about the last 7 days, were you self-employed, even minimally, like for an hour or more? This means working for yourself, freelancing, or doing contract work, OR working for your own or your family's business?

Are you planning to start your own business in the next 12 months?

Have you ever considered becoming a business owner, but decided not to?


Appendix B: Regression AnalysesEDUCATION (PAGE 37)

Researchers conducted a logistic regression analysis to test the relationship between 1) respondents’ perception that local schools are committed to building students’ strengths and 2) their overall satisfaction with K-12 schools in their area. The dependent variable was recoded to have binary response options (extremely satisfied/not extremely satisfied), and the model used logistic rather than linear regression to predict satisfaction, given the set of independent variables entered.

In addition to respondents’ perceptions that schools are committed to building students’ strengths, independent variables in the final model included their opinions of several other aspects of education in their areas. They also included a set of demographic variables used as controls, such as income, education level, gender and race.

The model showed that respondents’ odds of being “extremely satisfied” with the quality of local K-12 schools increased by 5.2 times if they strongly agreed that schools in their area were committed to building students’ strengths, making it easily the strongest predictor in the model. The table below lists the independent variables included in the model and the statistical outcomes, including the odds ratios, associated with each.

LOGISTIC REGRESSION ON RESPONDENTS’ LIKELIHOOD TO BE “EXTREMELY SATISFIED” WITH THE QUALITY OF K-12 SCHOOLS IN THEIR AREAS

B STD. ERROR WALD DF SIG. EXP(B), ODDS

RATIOS

Schools are committed to building students' strengths

1.66 0.13 170.12 1 0.00 5.24

Students have access to high-quality education

1.12 0.11 100.00 1 0.00 3.07

Students have access to transportation needed to get to school

0.95 0.07 179.31 1 0.00 2.60

Confidence in achieving education goals

0.01 0.08 0.02 1 0.89 1.01

Have necessary education to get the desired job

-0.09 0.08 1.50 1 0.22 0.91



RATIOS

Annual household income 6.44 3 0.09

$14,999 or less 0.21 0.11 3.83 1 0.05 1.23

$15,000 to $34,999 0.13 0.10 1.83 1 0.18 1.14

$35,000 to $59,999 -0.02 0.09 0.03 1 0.86 0.98

Education group 8.19 3 0.04

Less than a high school diploma 0.39 0.15 6.47 1 0.01 1.47

High school diploma or GED 0.25 0.12 4.17 1 0.04 1.29

Program after high school, some college, two-year associate degree

0.30 0.12 6.81 1 0.01 1.35

Gender (reference category female)

0.06 0.06 0.74 1 0.39 1.06

Race (reference category White) 0.15 0.07 4.39 1 0.04 1.16

Marital status 10.17 2 0.01

Single/never been married -0.02 0.08 0.04 1 0.84 0.98

Married 0.22 0.08 7.23 1 0.01 1.24

Political party 14.92 2 0.00

Republican 0.24 0.09 7.15 1 0.01 1.27

Democrat 0.29 0.08 14.04 1 0.00 1.34

Constant -1.76 0.16 120.13 1 0.00 0.17


CONFIDENCE (PAGE 62)

The second regression analysis in the report is more exploratory in nature, seeking the set of variables included in the overall State of Opportunity survey that best predict respondents’ agreement that they have the ability to improve their own lives. As with the education model, the dependent variable was recoded into binary form, with respondents being classified as “confident” (selecting “very confident” or “somewhat confident”) or “not confident” (selecting “not very confident” or “not confident at all”). Logistic regression was used with the survey items most strongly correlated with the dependent variable to arrive at a model that best explains respondents’ confidence levels.

The set of variables selected for the final regression model include question items from four areas that are particularly important to residents’ feelings of self-efficacy: social capital, health, local economic conditions and education. Most notably, having people in their social network they can turn to for help more than doubles the odds respondents will be “very confident” they can improve their own lives, and positive assessments of their own health increase the odds by 1.8 times. Of the demographic variables tested in the analysis, race (White vs. non-White) and age were the only ones found to notably increase the model fit.

LOGISTIC REGRESSION ON RESPONDENTS’ LIKELIHOOD TO BE “VERY CONFIDENT” OR “SOMEWHAT CONFIDENT” IN THEIR ABILITY TO IMPROVE THEIR OWN LIVES


RATIOS

Have people in social network to turn to for help improving financial situation

0.76 0.08 80.37 1 0.00 2.13

Health self-assessment: Excellent, very good, good, fair, poor

0.60 0.05 173.07 1 0.00 1.82

Not currently being treated for depression

-0.50 0.10 27.38 1 0.00 1.64

Agree “good economy” describes local area

0.47 0.10 22.72 1 0.00 1.60

Agree people in area can get ahead by working hard

0.38 0.09 19.60 1 0.00 1.46

Have not received Supplementary Security Income in past year

-0.38 0.10 14.48 1 0.00 1.46



RATIOS

Agree they have the necessary education to get the job they want

-0.33 0.03 109.70 1 0.00 1.39

Not currently being treated for high blood pressure

0.27 0.10 7.15 1 0.01 1.31

Agree they have a good sense of their unique strengths and talents

-0.24 0.04 35.96 1 0.00 1.27

Agree they are able to use their strengths and talents in their community

-0.16 0.04 17.00 1 0.00 1.17

Satisfied with the availability of job training or certificate programs

-0.15 0.04 13.09 1 0.00 1.16

Race (reference category: White)

-0.53 0.08 40.32 1 0.00 1.71

Age 0.03 0.00 83.47 1 0.00 1.03

Constant -1.62 0.51 9.97 1 0.00 0.20


The Center for Advancing Opportunity

901 F St. NW #300 Washington, DC 20004

t +1 202.507.4851 f +1 202.652.2934

www.advancingopportunity.org

Thurgood Marshall College Fund

901 F St. NW #300 Washington, DC 20004

t +1 202.507.4851 f +1 202.652.2934

www.tmcf.org

Koch Industries, Inc.

4111 E. 37th St. So. Wichita, KS 67201

t +1 316.828.5500

www.kochind.com

The Charles Koch Foundation

1320 N Courthouse Road #500 Arlington, VA 22201

t +1 703.875.1600 f +1 703.875.1766

www.charleskochfoundation.org

Documents

The State of Opportunity in America 2020 Report · America is based on a research initiative launched in 2017 when the Center for Advancing Opportunity ... could lead to 75,000 additional