The Squeeze on Defense Resources

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The Squeeze on Defense Resources

Quadrennial Defense Review Independent Panel

September 24, 2013Dr. Gordon Adams

American University/Stimson Center


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Note: Topline assumes that total federal spending from 2018 to 2040 grows at 3.1 percent above GDP (the average annual growth rate planned for 2013-2017 in the FY13 budget request).

Sources: Center for Strategic and International Studies analysis of Congressional Budget Office, Budget and Economic Outlook: Fiscal years 2011 to 2021, January 2012; Office of

Management and Budget, Historical tables, February 2012. Available at http://whitehouse.gov/omb/budget/Historicals; Department of Defense, National Defense Budget Estiamtes forFiscal Year 2013 (Green Book), Office of the Under Secretary of Defense (Comptroller), March 2012.

CSIS independent analysis based on CBO federal spending projections from 2022-2040


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$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

$800

FY47

FY51

FY55

FY59

FY63

FY67

FY71

FY75

FY79

FY83

FY87

FY91

FY95

FY99

FY03

FY07

FY11

FY15

National Defense and International Affairs Outlays

Nat ional Defense International Affai rs

Data for FY13-18 is estimated and excludes the effects of sequestration.Source: OMB Historical Tables 3-1, 3-2 and 10-1

Constant 2014 dollars (Billions)

FY53$622B

FY68$626B

FY89$581B

FY11$743B


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40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

110%

Year 0 Year 1 Year 2 Year 3 Year 4 Year 5 Year 6 Year 7 Year 8 Year 9 Year 10

Build-downs: Ten-Year Horizon from Peak Pentagon Budgetas percent of highest budget year

Source: FY13 Greenbook, Table 6-8, OMB

Tables 32-1 and 10-1; ATRA/BCA

Korea

Vietnam

Cold

War

Admin's

Plan

Sequester

Sequestration scenario presumes that initial savings is all taken from FY13 . Data is not available to

compute "sequesterable base" or to allocate cuts to prior-year unabiligated balances.

SavingsY10 %

less Y1

Korea $2.4T 31%

Vietnam $1.3T 28%

Cold War $1.0T 31%

Admin Plan $1.3T 21%

Sequester $1.8T 28%


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0

20

40

60

80

100

120

FY85

FY86

FY87

FY88

FY89

FY90

FY91

FY92

FY93

FY94

FY95

FY96

FY97

FY98

Cold War Builddown

Ops & Maintenance

MilitaryPersonnelProcurement

RDTE

Source: DOD Green Book Table 6-8

as a share of FY85 (inflation adjusted)


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Army

Navy

Air Force

Defense-Wide

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY72

FY74

FY76

FY78

FY80

FY82

FY84

FY86

FY88

FY90

FY92

FY94

FY96

FY98

FY00

FY02

FY04

FY06

FY08

FY10

FY12

One-Third Rule: Pentagon Base Budget by Military Service


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Army

Navy

Air Force

Defense-Wide

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

FY72

FY74

FY76

FY78

FY80

FY82

FY84

FY86

FY88

FY90

FY92

FY94

FY96

FY98

FY00

FY02

FY04

FY06

FY08

FY10

FY12

One-Third Rule: Pentagon Base Budget by Military Service

$0

$25

$50

$75

$100

$125

$150

FY80 FY 82 FY 84 FY 86 FY 88 FY 90 FY 92 FY 94 FY 96 FY 98 FY 00 FY 02 FY 04 FY 06 FY 08 FY 10 FY 12

MilitaryPersonne

l(ConstantFY13Dollars)

Military Personnel Budget Authority (Incl Health) per Capita (AC Personnel)Constant Dollars (FY13, Thousands)

Source: FY13 Green Book Tables 6-8 & 7-5; CBO Long-Term Implications of the FY2013 Defense Program (Table 2-2)


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Add O&M/troop

$0

$25,000

$50,000

$75,000

$100,000

$125,000

$150,000

$175,000

FY80 FY 82 FY 84 FY 86 FY 88 FY 90 FY 92 FY 94 FY 96 FY 98 FY 00 FY 02 FY 04 FY 06 FY 08 FY 10 FY 12

Per Capita Operations & Maintenace Budget AuthorityConstant FY13 Dollars; Excludes Civilian Pay & Includes OCO; Relative to AC End Strength

Source: FY13 Green Book Tables 6-8, 6-14, & 7-5


11/12Source: Center for Strategic and International Studies


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-45%

-40%

-35%

-30%

-25%

-20%

-15%

-10%

-5%

0%

5%

1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013

Percenta

ge

Fiscal Year

% ChangeMilitary

DoD Civilian and Military Personnel 1985-2014

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The Squeeze on Defense Resources