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The Skills Gap
Lord Baker of Dorking C.H.
The economy is changing
Science
, engin
eering a
nd tech
nolog...
Science
, engin
eering a
nd tech
nology t..
.
Skille
d agricu
lture
L3
Skille
d metal, e
lectrica
l, electr
o...
Skille
d constr
uction L3
-200
-150
-100
-50
0
50
100
150
200
250Net growth in job numbers, 2010-20 (thousands)
An even bigger story: the baby boomers are retiring
SET pro
fessionals
SET te
chnici
ans (Le
vel 4
)
Agricu
lture
(Leve
l 3)
Metal/e
lectrica
l (L 3)
Constructi
on (L 3)
-200
0
200
400
600
800
1000
Replacement demandNet growth
(Thousands)
Huge numbers of people will be needed by 2020
• Between 2012 and 2020, we need ––830,000 SET professionals (degree level)–450,000 SET technicians (levels 3 and 4)
• SET = science, engineering and technology• Figures include growth + replacement demand (mainly to
replace baby boomers planning to retire)
But supply won’t meet demand
• Demand for science, engineering and technology graduates: 104,000 per year between 2012 and 2020
• Number of new graduates taking UK jobs in SET occupations: 64,000 per year
• Shortfall: 40,000 graduates per year
Education is out of step with the economy.
Schools, further education colleges, training providers and universities are failing to deliver the skills we need today, let alone tomorrow.
Higher education has grown rapidly – but not in all subjects
Computer science
Engineering/technology
Physical sciences
Creative arts/design
Business/admin
Humanities
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90
% Increase in first degrees 2002-12
Many graduates are under-employed
Creative arts & design
Law Engineering & technology
Subjects allied to medecine
05
10152025303540
% in non-graduate jobs in December 2011, 30 months after graduating
Apprenticeships have grown – but the numbers are unbalanced
Number of 16-24s starting
apprenticeships in 2011/12
% change since 2010/11
Business, admin and the law 80,320 14.5%
Retail and commercial enterprise 63,670 7.6%
Health, public services and care 49,910 10.5%
Engineering and manufacturing 38,100 6.8%
Britain’s plight
Only 4% of 15 year olds in the UK want careers in engineering and computing ...
… placing the UK 35th out of 37 countries in an OECD survey.
Other countries value vocational education more highly …
Hungary UK Denmark Germany Netherlands Austria0
102030405060708090
% young people on vocational courses
…and have lower youth unemployment
Hungary UK Denmark Germany Netherlands Austria0
5
10
15
20
25
30
% of under 25s who are unemployed
The connection is obvious
Hungary UK
Denmark
German
y
Netherla
nds
Austria
0
20
40
60
80
% young people on vocational courses% youth un-employment
UK and AustriaUK Austria
Participation in vocational upper secondary education, 2010
32.1% 76.5%
Under 25s unemployment rate, 2010
19.6% 8.8%
We are wrong to delay technical education
• In Austria, technical education starts at 14.• In England, most technical education starts at
16 – two years behind.
Too many young people start – rather than finish – level 2 at 16
Level 20
20,00040,00060,00080,000
100,000120,000140,000160,000180,000200,000
Number of QCF Level 2 qualifications achieved by 17 and 18 year olds, 2011-12
Age 17Age 18
QCF: Qualifications and Curriculum Framework
The time has come to rethink 14-18 education
What is a UTC?• Independent state school• 14-18 age range• All-ability intake• Sub-regional• Commitment of a local university• Employers involved from the start in shaping
and delivering the curriculum
Curriculum14 - 16
60%General & bridging
40%Technical
Post-16
40%General & bridging 60%
Technical
Key characteristics of UTCs• Technical and academic education are integrated• Practical work is as highly valued as academic work• Longer days (8-30 to 5) and school years (36-40
weeks)• Enrichment for all• Curriculum projects devised by employers and
universities• Progression routes include HE, FE, Apprenticeships
and employment
What’s more …
• Every student who left the JCB Academy last summer had somewhere to go –– Apprenticeships– Further education– University– Work
Four types of 14-18 college:–UTCs– Liberal arts colleges–Career colleges–Performing arts and
sports colleges
Thank you