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Japan’s Foreign Policy: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security YUICHI HOSOYA, PH.D. PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS KEIO UNIVERSITY

The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

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Page 1: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

Japan’s Foreign Policy: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry

and East Asian security

YUICHI HOSOYA, PH.D. PROFESSOR OF INTERNATIONAL POLITICS

KEIO UNIVERSITY

Page 2: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

OUTLINE

Introduction 1. Another Great War in 2014? 2. Japan-China Rivalry 3. Japan’s New National Security Strategy Conclusion

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Page 3: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

INTRODUCTION Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with

the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain in 1914.

While Taiwan began to claim to obtain natural resources around the Senkaku Islands in 1970, Communist China is now claiming its sovereignty over those islands largely due to its strategic ambition to fully control the East China Sea, which is the entrance to the Pacific Ocean for Chinese PLA Navy.

Japan’s first NSS aims to broaden its international cooperation, and to enhance its intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance capabilities to prevent any Chinese provocative challenges to overtake the Senkaku Islands.

PM Abe’s security policy is seen by experts in the U.S. as a necessary evolution which can restore balance of power and international stability.

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Page 4: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

1. Another Great War in 2014? Current tensions in East Asia are often likened to the Great War of

1914.

“In the growing competition between the U.S. and China, however, one can hear echoes of 1914. … More problematic are potential confrontations between Japan and China. … Thus my most likely scenario for war in 2014 would begin with initiatives like China’s recent unilateral declaration of an exclusive air zone over the islands in the East China Sea that trigger escalatory responses by Japan leading to the downing of a place or sinking of a ship with scores of casualties. There could follow a process of retaliatory risk-taking in which each responds to the other, producing a small naval and air conflict between Japan and China at sea in which dozens of ships and planes are destroyed.” (Graham Allison, “1914: Good Year for a Great War?”, The National Interest, January 1, 2014.)

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Page 5: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

“Let’s not understate the likelihood of war in East Asia or kid ourselves that the United States can remain aloof should China and Japan enter the lists.” (James Holms, “Asia’s Worst Nightmare: A China-Japan War”, The National Interest, January 5, 1914.)

Professor Nye denies to link the current crisis to the Great War of 1914. “Today’s world is different from the world of 1914 in several important ways. One is that nuclear weapons give political leaders the equivalent of crystal ball that shows what their world would look like after escalation. … Another difference is that the ideology of war is much weaker nowadays. … In other words, the US has more time to manage its relations with a rising power than Britain did a century ago. Too much fear can be self-fulfilling.” (Joseph S. Nye, “1914 Revisited?”, Project Syndicate, January 14, 2014.)

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Page 6: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

2. Japan-China Rivalry (1) Confrontations at the East China Sea Today, the top three of global economic power, the U.S., China, and

Japan, face one another in the Asia-Pacific. While the Atlantic Ocean was the center of world politics in the 20th Century, the Pacific Ocean is so in the 21st century.

As Chinese power expands, the dividing line between the two global powers, the U.S. and China, is drawn at the East China Sea. Thus, the East China Sea becomes the main theater of confrontation between the two sides, China on one side, and the U.S.-Japan alliance on the other.

The Senkaku Islands together with its EEZ are the only area where China cannot effectively control in the East China Sea. Strategically, it is now important to for Chinese PLA to freely act within the East China Sea. The U.S. forces and Japanese SDF together with Japanese Coast Guards are main obstacles to Chinese military activities.

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Page 7: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

(2) The Senkaku Islands: A History After the incorporation of the Senkaku islands into Japanese territory in 1895, Japanese civilians settled on the previously uninhabited islands, having obtained permission from the Japanese Government. There were a Japanese bonito processing plant on Uotsuri-shima where Japanese workers lived until 1940.

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Page 8: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

After the end of the Asia-Pacific War, the U.S. took over these islands. But U.S. authority did not tightly control these territories, and Taiwanese fishermen could easily and frequently land on these islands for the purpose of collecting feathers of albatross. In the 1960s, they were aware that they were violating foreign sovereignty. The Taiwanese did not claim sovereignty over these islands at this time.

Until the beginning of the 1970s, Chinese and Taiwanese publishers and government officials referred these islands as the “Senkaku group of islands” and “Uotsuri Islands” which were regarded as residual territories of Japan. In January 1970, ROC government decided to stop using the name of the “Senkaku”, and began to call it as “Diaoyutai”.

Page 9: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

While Ministry of Foreign Affairs of Republic of China (ROC) seemed to respect Japanese residual sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands, Ministry of Economic Affairs maintained that natural resources around the Senaku Islands should not be abandoned, after the international survey under the United Nations Economic Commission for Asia and the Far East (ECAFE) mentioned the potential of huge amount of natural resources under the sea in 1969.

ROC government was aware of the ratification of the Convention on the Continental Shelf in 1964. In 1969, ROC government started to claim that the Senkaku Islands were on Chinese Continental Shelf, and argued unsuccessfully that natural resources there should be retained to ROC.

Page 10: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain
Page 11: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

(3) Towards a Clash?

China Federation for Defending the Diaoyu Islands (PRC) and Action Committee for Defending the Diaoyu Islands (Hong Kong) are energetically claiming Chinese sovereignty over the Senkaku Islands. Main aim of this radical nationalistic groups seems to be coalition between Taiwan and mainland China on this issue.

One of the most important strategic goals of Chinese People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) seems to be the control of the first island chain covering both the South China Sea and the East China Sea. Taiwan and the Senkaku Islands are the only areas where PRC can not yet control inside of the first island chain. By claiming that the Senaku Islands/Diaoyutai belong to Taiwan, PRC can obtain both of these islands.

Geopolitically, the Senkaku Islands in the East China Sea is similar to West Berlin in East Germany in the Cold War years.

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Page 12: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain
Page 13: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

(4) The Biggest Strategic Error for China?

On 23 November, 2013, Chinese government officially declared to establish a so-called Air Defense Identification Zone (ADIZ) in the East China Sea. This decision has been heavily criticized by Japanese and American governments, as the zone covered the Senkaku Islands which is controlled by Japan.

Reportedly, Chinese Foreign Ministry was against the decision of requesting forcefully to submit flight plans to Chinese autorities in advance and follow instructions from its air-traffic controllers, as this is not customary in international law. PLA’s Air Force has been demanding this decision particularly since the beginning of summer in 2013.

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Page 14: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain
Page 15: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

“This face-off marks the most worrying strategic escalation between the two countries since 1996, when China’s then president, Jiang Zemin, ordered a number of exclusion zones for missile tests in the Taiwan Strait, leading America to send to aircraft-carriers there. … Plenty of countries establish zones in which they require aircraft to identify themselves, but they tend not to be over other countries’ territory. The Chinese ADIZ overlaps with Japan’s own air-defence zone. … Teenager who do not realize the consequences of their actions often cause trouble: China has set up a casus belli with its neighbours and America for generations to come.” (The Economist, November 30, 2013) “What is commonly framed as China’s pursuit of territorial claims is, in actuality, a pretext to gain control of the Western Pacific commons. … Shrewd as it may seem, China’s strategy of using territorial claims to gain control of the region’s commons is nevertheless bound to fail.” (Jeffrey W. Hornung and Alexander Vuving, “Beijin’s Grand Strategy Failure”, The National Interest, January 10, 2014.)

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Page 16: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

“Equally worrisome, the limited conflict scenario could result in a gradual process of coercion, whereby incremental Chinese encroachment over disputed territory and resources in the East China Sea and elsewhere increasingly endangers Japanese and alliance interests, possibly enabling the Chinese to ‘win without fighting’ in a range of disputes” (Michael D. Swaine et al, China’s Military and The U.S.-Japan Alliance in 2030: A Strategic Net Assessment, Carnegie Endowment, 2013)

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Page 17: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

3. Towards a Rapprochement? (1) A Summit Meeting in the APEC? Japanese investment in China plunged over 40 percent in the first half of the year, and Chinese government has been trying to repair the damages in the Sino-Japanese economic relations. Prime Minister Abe has been repeatedly said that “I have always kept the door open for dialogues with China.” Abe has never declined the summit meeting with Chinese counterpart. The only reason for the absence of the Sino-Japanese summit meeting is President Xi’s denial. Chinese government presents two conditions for the summit meeting. First, Japan should admit that there is a territorial dispute between the two countries. Second, Japanese prime minister will not visit the Yasukuni Shirne. The key question is whether PM Abe accept these two conditions. Abe has been reiterated that there should be no preconditions for the summit meeting.

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Page 18: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

(2) The Changing Tide in the Asia-Pacific

According to an opinion poll of April 2014, 65 % of the ASEAN people responded that Japan is the most reliable partner, while 48% responded China and 47 % responded the U.S. PM Abe’s diplomacy is very much welcomed by most of the ASEAN countries, and people there are less confident in China’s role in the region.

Australian Prime Minister, Tony Abbot, said that “as far as I’m concerned, Japan is Australia’s best friend in Asia and we want to keep it a very strong friendship”. Never before, Japan-Australia relationship is so strong. PM Abbot clearly prioritizes Australian relationship with Japan to that with China.

Japan’s strategic position has been greatly improved with the exceptionally active diplomacy by PM Abe.

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Page 19: The Sino-Japanese Rivalry and East Asian security · 2014. 10. 24. · Current tensions between China and Japan are often compared with the rivalry between Imperial Germany and Britain

CONCLUSION Neither Chinese nor Japanese governments want a war in East Asia, while the competition for leadership is severer than before. One of the most important goals of the Abe Administration is to build a prosperous and stable international order underpinned by democratic values and the rule of law in the Asia-Pacific region. Japan cannot, and is not aiming to, contain China. The political stability and continuing economic growth of China is an essential precondition for Japanese diplomacy. However, PM Abe and his Administration is determined to protect Japan’s territorial sovereignty and to deny any provocative challenges to it by coercion and the threat of force.

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