The Security Implications of Geoengineering: Blame, Imposed Agreement and Critical Infrastructure

Paul Nightingale & Rose Cairns

Security & Geoengineering

• Who would conduct geoengineering?• Are the economics incredible?• Is it governable?• Who gets the blame?

• Take away: indirect security costs likely to be high, & high enough to make it untenable

• Caveats & Uncertainties (SRM)

Geoengineering

• High fixed cost, capital intensive technologies characterised by uncertainties & (survivor) biases about costs

• As you move from imaginaries to working systems the secondary supporting systems & governance structures become apparent

Military & Peaceful

• Direct military applications– Cirrus (’47-52) – Stormfurry (‘62-83) – Popeye & Motorpool (‘67-72).– ENMOD

• Value: impact v baseline, alternative means.• “we are not really interested in technologies that can

be defended against with an umbrella”

– NRC (2003), DHS (2008), China etc

Who would be in charge?

• Caveats & Uncertainties• Common assumption it would be scientists

1. Current capabilities2. Securitisation of climate change3. Perceived termination risks4. Loop-holes in international law5. Post-War US security policy

Who would protect it?

• Caveats & Uncertainties• Critical National Infrastructure (CIP Act, 2001,

Homeland Security Act, 2002)– terrorism, pandemics, cyber attacks, extreme

weather, accidents or technical failures.– Threat, Vulnerability, Outcome framework

• Direct indirect security costs reasonable

Indirect Indirect Costs

• Countermeasures? Nations/people disagreeing (endpoints, etc) could vent (anger, ,methane). – Who would have a veto? – Would it be imposed over expressed preference?

• Solutions?– Global legal framework for climate policy– Enforcement & surveillance (verification)

• Indirect costs of enforcement & surveillance likely to be much higher than direct costs, particularly if agreement has to be imposed

Geography of Blame

• Costs depend on level of resistance• Overlook impact of GE on blame– Weather natural – unlucky– Weather engineered – blameworthy

• Geography of blame under uncertainty – technical superior actor– Any extreme weather event blamed on GE, then blamed on

USA (?) even if USA wasn’t involved.– Costs of security?– Global politics of climate emerging? Impact?

Dystopian futures

• Caveats & Uncertainties– Maybe: agree on global policy, climate overrides

security, agreement on UN control, policy changes– Secretive, bureaucratic decision-making under

conditions of uncertainty, paranoia & blame

• In combination costs not just economic• Ungovernable at any reasonable cost