1

The Search for Self Reliance

India’s Energy Future

T L Sankar

ADMINISTRATIVE STAFF COLLEGE OF INDIA

Bella Vista :: Hyderabad-500 08228th June 2005

2

Purpose of the Presentation

Economic Growth calls for increase in supply of energy. While India has registered a commendable rate of economic growth in the recent past, it has failed to meet the required needs of clean, convenient and reliable energy at affordable prices to fuel this economic growth.

Many fear that India’s aspiration to achieve 8% per year GDP Growth in the next decade may be constrained by lack of energy supplies.

This presentation seeks to explore the ways in which India could meet its energy demand to support such a development. India achieved, against all prognostications, self-reliance in food and foreign exchange. Can this be repeated in the case of Fuels?

3

Index

Indian Story

In this section we present how India responded to other ‘Crisis’ situations.

Energy Needs & Planning

Energy Sources

Alternative Fuels

4

GDP Growth – Story so far

• To maintain the high GDP growth rate, self reliance in energy holds the key.

India has witnessed a GDP increase on the basis of sustained agricultural & industrial outputs, over the last decade. The “Hindu-rate” of growth (2-3%) has been left far behind.

GDP Growth

0

500,000

1,000,000

1,500,000

2,000,000

2,500,000

3,000,000

1951

1954

1957

1960

1963

1966

1969

1972

1975

1978

1981

1984

1987

1990

1993

1996

1999

2002

Rs

. in

Cro

res

5

Per Capita Energy Consumption

Source : BP Statistical Review of World Energy 2004

In spite of this growth, the per capita energy consumption of India is far lower than that of the developed nations. Even to reach world average it has to increase five fold. With a population of over a billion, India’s energy expansion plans will have far reaching consequences for the world energy market.

TPES (MtOE)

7.96

4.05

0.96

0.3

1.65

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

World Avg

USA

Japan

China

India

MtOE

Electricity Consumption per Capita (kWh)

14378

8935

1247

526

2571

0 2000 4000 6000 8000 10000 12000 14000 16000

World Avg

USA

Japan

China

India

kWh

Will India’s approach towards self-reliance in energy help?

6

India – Green Revolution

• India was the most successful country in implementing the Green Revolution. Food grain production almost doubled from 72 MT in 1965-66 to 129 MT in 1978-79 during the green revolution. Today the production is close to 212 MT.

Agricultural Production in India

0

50

100

150

200

250

MT

Whenever faced with a Challenge, India bounced back stronger and self reliant. From a food starved country in 1967, India became a food-grain exporting country in 1979

7

India – Forex Reserves

• With less than $ 2 Bn forex reserves in 1991, the reserves have leapfrogged to nearly $130 Bn due to a series of economic reforms and continued focus on economic development

After Green Revolution, India proved itself again – this time on the Forex Front

Forex Reserves of India

0.00

20.00

40.00

60.00

80.00

100.00

120.00

140.00

Bn

$

From Crisis to Abundance

Source : India Infoline -Economic Survey of India

8

Index

Indian Story

In this section we present the energy needs of India in 2030

Energy Needs & Planning

Energy Sources

Alternative Fuels

Discussion on energy futures for only one decade may lead to misleading conclusions.

9

India – Energy Needs 1/2

Several scenarios/projections of

India’s energy needs have been

attempted by different agencies.

The period of the data and the

horizons of the forecast vary.

For this presentation, using the

latest data and based on

elasticities, a new forecast has

been attempted.

Period

TPES MTOE wrt GDP (in 1993-94)

Rs. Crores

Electricity Generated

(utilities+non utilities) Mus wrt to GDP

1980/81-2003/04 0.97 1.241990/91-2003/04 0.80 1.041994/95-2003/04 0.74 0.98

Elasticities experienced by India

Elasticities used for Projection

PeriodTPES

ElasticityElectricity Elasticity

2004 - 2011/12 0.80 0.952011/12 -2021/22 0.75 0.902021/22 - 2031/32 0.67 0.80

TPES =Total Primary Energy Supply.GDP = Factor cost constant.M Units = Million kWh. MTOE = Metric Tonne Oil Equivalent.

Agency

GDP Growth Rate pa

Planning Commission 7%EIA, US 5%IEA, Paris 5%India Vision 2020 (Planning Commission)India Hydrocarbon Vision 7%

8%

10

India – Energy Needs 2/2

Based on Elasticities set out, demand for Total Primary Energy Supply (TPES) and Electricity

supply have been projected assuming, a GDP Growth of 8% and official population estimates.

YearPopulation

Mn TPES MTOEElectricity

Bwh2004-05 1098 341 5872009-10 1180 464 8622014-15 1268 647 12012019-20 1362 830 17642024-25 1463 1117 23042029-30 1573 1404 3385

These projections are in line with the other estimates when they are corrected for a higher GDP

Growth rate. The projections of electricity demand by Ministry of Power, which is upto 2020, is

higher, as it has not fully taken into account the decreasing trend of electricity elasticity to GDP

over time.

India - Energy Needs

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30

Population Mn

TPES MTOE

Electricity Bw h

Period TPES Electricity Generated (Utilities+non utilities)

1980-2003 5.10% 6.90%

2004-2019 6.10% 7.61%

2020-2030 5.40% 6.74%

The demand forecast suggest that the effort in supplying total primary energy consumption in the next decade would be 1% higher than in the past it was around 5%. This will call for some concerted effort. The electricity supply will have to be increased by about 1% per year over the past rates. This will call this increases investments requirements in power sector. However these rates are achievable, if captive power is encouraged.

11

India – Specific Fuel Needs for Non Power usesNon-power use of Coal Oil & Gas are estimated first. Sources of power generation

from primary sources like nuclear, hydro and renewable and from fuel sources namely

coal and natural gas are estimated next. The coal and natural gas requirements for

power generation are added to the demand for non-power use derive the total fuel

needs including for power generation.

Fuel Needs for Non Power use

Year Coal MMT Oil MMTNatural

Gas BCM2004-05 109 127 212009-10 130 152 252014-15 156 181 302019-20 186 216 362024-25 222 259 432029-30 265 309 51

Past Rates of Growth

Year 1970-80 1980-90 1990-2003Coking Coal 3.62% 2.75% 0

Non Coking for Power 10.76% 12.27% 6.61%Non Coking for Non Power 1.96% 2.34% 2.04%

Non Power Oil 5.40% 6.00% 4.90%

Based on these growth rates, and adjusting for a higher 8% GDP

growth, the specific fuel needs are projected.

Fuel needs for Non Power Use

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30

Coal MMT

Oil MMT

NaturalGas BCM

12

Fuel Needs for Power generation

Keeping in view the requirements of long term-sustainability the preferred source for power generation should be

renewable non-fuel sources namely hydel, wind, solar and nuclear. As these resources are limited, thermal power from

coal, oil and gas are resorted to.

Production from non-fuel sources, however, is constrained by a few factors:•Nuclear – Policy constraints, uranium availability, date of commercialising fast breeder or

thorium based cycles.•Hydel – Adequate investigations, obtaining environmental clearance, making R&R

arrangements•Renewable – Snags in technology, high costs

The following targets have been adopted by official agencies. •Nuclear cumulative capacity 25,000 MW by 2030.•Hydel – 20% of total power generation by 2030.•Renewable – 5% of total electricity generated by 2030.

Non- Fuel based Power Generation

Total

Electricity

Supply Reqd (a)

Hydro –(20%)

(b)

Nuclear -

(c)

Fuel Based

=(a)-(b)-(c)-

(d)

2004-05 587 117 15 29 425

2009-10 862 172 25 43 622

2014-15 1201 240 41 60 860

2019-20 1764 353 66 88 1257

2024-25 2304 461 108 115 1620

2029-30 3385 677 175 169 2364

Year

All in Billion kWh.

Renewable(5%)

(d)

13

India Projected Fuel Needs for power Preference of fuel for power generation at the margin, is based on the costs of alternatives. Coal is the preferred fuel for power generation. Even at Rs. 1000/ ton, the fuel cost will work out to Rs.

0.70 per unit. If delivered price of Natural gas is $4/MMBTU, the fuel cost would be Rs. 1.40 per unit.

Even at distances above 1500 kilometers, coal is likely to emerge as the cheaper fuel. There are additional factors in favour of coal

• Predictability of future prices is higher in coal than in gas.• Long term fixed price contracts indexed to labour costs are possible in case of coal.

However, the recent shortages have led to a view that coal will not be available to support the power

development fully. Natural Gas will be the alternative.

Scenario – I Gas based generation would be as at

present, 13% of total thermal generation and rest 87%

will be from coal.

Year Total Thermal Electricity (BkWh)

Coal based

BkWh

Gas based

BkWh

Coal Req.

MMT

Gas Req.

BCM.

04-05 425 370 55 259 11

09-10 622 541 81 379 16

14-15 860 748 112 524 22

19-20 1257 1093 163 765 33

24-25 1620 1410 211 987 42

29-30 2364 2057 307 1440 61

Scenario-II Coal production will be constrained to a

growth rate of 5% considered as easily achievable and

the rest of power requirement would be using gas.

To arrive at total fuel needs of India, two alternative scenarios are developed.

Year Total Thermal Electricity (BkWh)

Coal based

BkWh

Gas based

BkWh

Coal Req.

MMT

Gas Req.

BCM.

04-05 425 370 55 259 11

09-10 622 472 150 331 30

14-15 860 614 246 430 49

19-20 1257 805 452 564 90

24-25 1620 1051 569 736 114

29-30 2364 1357 997 957 199

14

Energy Demand Scenarios

The total energy requirements both primary and secondary are summarized under the two scenarios. Essentially if India does not produce coal as required gas imports will have to substitute coal and this will increase the electricity price.

Year 

Coal

MMT

Oil

MMT

Natural GasBCM

Total ElectricityB kWh

% which Non fuel based

Nuclear

Hydel

Renewable

2004-05 368 127 32 587 15 117 29

2009-10 509 152 41 862 25 172 43

2014-15 679 181 52 1201 41 240 60

2019-20 951 216 68 1764 66 353 88

2024-25 1204 259 85 2304 108 461 115

2029-30 1705 309 112 3385 175 677 169

Year 

CoalMMT

Oil MMT

Natural GasBCM

Total B kWh

% which Non fuel based

Nuclear

Hydel

Renewable

2004-05 368 127 32 587 15 117 29

2009-10 461 152 55 862 25 172 43

2014-15 586 181 79 1201 41 240 60

2019-20 750 216 126 1764 66 353 88

2024-25 958 259 157 2304 108 461 115

2029-30 1222 309 250 3385 175 677 169

Further discussions in this presentation will be based on Scenario-I.

Scenario-I

Scenario-II

15

Energy Planning…

Scenarios are a tool for helping policy makers plan for the future – or rather

for different possible futures. They help us focus on critical uncertainties - on

the things we don't know about - and on the things we do know about.

They help us understand the limitations of our ‘mental maps’ of the world –

to think the unthinkable, anticipate the unknowable and utilize both to make

better strategic decisions.

Our approach:

1. The energy demand has to be met.

2. Indigenous fuel usage should be optimized.

3. All futuristic sources of energy supply should be exploited.

This leads to two scenarios:

1. Coal supply is adequate to meet all needs where it is economical.

2. Coal supply is constrained. Power Generation has to rely on gas for

the residual requirements.

16

Index

Indian Story

In this section we present an analysis of energy options based on resource endowments

Energy Needs & Planning

Energy Sources

Alternative Fuels

17

• Wind Potential 45000 MW• Potential exploited 1267 MW

•Tamilnadu 787 MW•Gujarat 166 MW•Andhra Pradesh 89 MW•Karnataka 37 MW•Kerala 2 MW •Madhya Pradesh 22 MW •Maharashtra 155 MW

•Hydro Potential 15000 MW• Himachal Pradesh 1624 MW• Uttar Pradesh 1472 MW• Arunachal Pradesh 1059 MW• Karnataka 652 MW• Maharashtra 599 MW• Kerala 466 MW• Madhya Pradesh 410 MW• Bihar & Zarkhand 367 MW

•Potential exploited 1341 MW

• Oil Reserves 732 Mn Tons• Gas Reserves 763 Bn Cu Mtr• Reliance Gas find 198 BCM• Cairn Gas Find 28 BCM• Present gas prod 30 BCM pa

Oil & Gas

• Coal Reserves 246 Bn Tons• Jharkhand 71.14 Bn Tons• Orissa 59.10 Bn Tons• Chattisgarh 38.13 Bn Tons• Total Coal Mines 561• Present production of Coal & Lignite in excess of 389 MT pa

Coal

•Biomass Potential 3500 MW• Maharashtra 1000 MW• Uttar Pradesh 1000 MW• Karnataka 300 MW• Andhra Pradesh 200 MW• Gujarat 200 MW• Punjab 150 MW

•Potential exploited 272 MW

Biomass

Small Hydro

Wind

• Municipal Potential 1000 MW• Industrial waste potential 700 MW• Projects implemented 9.5 MW• Projects under const. 5.2 MW• Projects under dev 21 MW

Waste

Sources of Energy

India has all forms of energy resources and they are available in all parts

18

Coal Production in India

The Coal & Lignite Production in India has leapfrogged more than 10 times from 32 MT in 1950-51 to about 389 MT in 2003-04, i.e. about 4.8% per annum. From 1980-81 to 2003-04 the increases are at 5.5% per annum.

Annual Coal & Lignite Production

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

1950

-51

1970

-71

1976

-77

1978

-79

1980

-81

1982

-83

1984

-85

1986

-87

1988

-89

1990

-91

1992

-93

1994

-95

1996

-97

1998

-99

2000

-01

2002

-03

MT

19

Coal Reserves & Production

248 Billion Tonnes of Coal Reserves out of which 93 Billion Tonnes are proven. Of these, the coking coal needed for steel production is only a small part.Present Production Levels – 382MT (2004-05). Reserves can sustain over 100 years of use at this level.Productivity of Coal mines in India is very low, ranging from 152 tones to 2621 tones per miner per year, compared to 12,000 tons in Australia and US. Huge potential exists to increase the production and productivity.Industry essentially comprises two large Government owned companies CIL & SCCL.The production plans as now projected by the Industry, leave a large gap between demand and supply.

Coal Reserves:

Source: Coal Vision 2025.

Bn tonnes = Billion tonnes.

Category Total Coal Reserves (Bn

Tonnes)

Coking Coal reserves out

of Total Reserves

(Bn Tonnes)

Proved 93 17

Indicated 117 14

Inferred 38 2

Total 248 33

2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30 Avg growth

(%)

Demand as foresee*

368 509 679 951 1209 1705 6.2

Public sector production*

361 509 679 942 1086 1200 5.0

MTCoal : demand supply gap

* CIL / SCCL production plans are under frequent revisions.

20

Coal Sector - Concerns

Indian Coal Sector : Concerns

• Exploration and mine planning has lagged behind.• Exploration in deep coal deposits has been very slow and indifferent.• Underground mining continues with low technology and very low productivity.• The standards for rehabilitation of mine sites after open cast mining has not been

spelt out clearly and leads to disputes.• Land acquisition and environmental clearance lead to delays in new mining

projects.

Steps taken so far:

• State Governments allowed into coal mining• Public sector companies can mine and sell coal.• Captive Mining allowed in 1993• Coal placed on Open General License• Import duties reduced dramatically• Coal prices decontrolled in 2000• A Committee of Experts appointed to prepare a road map for coal sector

reforms.

21

Coal Sector – Strategies for Future

Liberalizing captive coal mining provisions.Use of modern technology to augment productivity and qualityAdoption of clean coal technologies, such as IGCC etc Allowing Private sector into coal mining and tradingReplacing Coal Linkages with Fuel Supply AgreementsAcquisition of Coal equities abroadCreate competition among public sector coal companies at the State and Central level.Rationalization of railway freightsInfrastructure status to coal industryClosing down uneconomic mines after duly compensating the affected stakeholders.

The Hope:

The coal industry consisting of only two companies has been able to achieve over 5% per annum growth. If more players are allowed into coal mining with adequate safeguard to workers and to coal conservation issues it is possible to step it up to 7%. China achieves an increase of over 100 million tonnes a year and is producing over 2000 million tonnes against India’s 400 million tonnes. Per capita coal consumption in India is slightly to be less than that of USA even in 2030.

22

Natural Gas

Natural Gas production stands at close at 32 BCM per annum and the reserves at 922 BCM

Growth in Production of Natural Gas (BCM)

1.4 2.4

18

29.5 29.7 31.4 32

0

10

20

30

40

1971 1981 1991 2001 2002 2003 2004

Figure 3.5: Reserves of Natural Gas (BCM)

62.29

410.65

729.79 762.95 750.71853.48

922.8

0100200

300400500600700

800900

1000

1971 1981 1991 2001 2002 2003 2004

• After a major jump in the production of

natural gas in late 90s, the production

has stagnated• With the success of 4 rounds of NELP,

the gas production is set to rise again.• The new gas finds especially in deep

off shore wells have added reserves.

• The new exploration licensing policy for gas is attracting private industry from India and abroad in large numbers. The mood in the industry is up beat.

23

Natural Gas – Demand Supply

Year Demand Supply

2004-05 36 34

2009-10 41 57

2014-15 52 85

2019-20 68 103

2024-25 85 ?

2029-30 113 ?

If coal supply is adequate the demand and supply of gas will be as in the table.

The supply of gas from domestic sources and as LNG imports and pipeline import of gas is under advanced stage of discussion. New finds of gas deposits and promise of more have raised hopes of increasing the use of gas for power generation in replacement of coal. India’s unique location of being close to some of the world’s largest gas deposits in Qatar, Oman, Iran and Central Asia has raised hopes to get piped gas from these sources. LNG is the next best option.

The price of gas defines the sectors and levels of use. At $4 per MMBTU and above gas can be used only in fertilizer, petrochemical and as auto fuel and domestic fuel. If the price of imported gas is less than $3 per MMBTU, gas can substitute coal for power generation and its demand can become very large.

24

Natural Gas

India has stepped up its quest for gas by resorting to NELP. The efforts to source gas from outside the country are also underway.

Blocks identified for exploration

Source : Directorate General of Hydrocarbons, Govt. of India

25

Natural Gas – Supply Options

  2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25

I. Domestic Supply 30 43* 43@ 45@ 45@

II. Coal Bed Methane 0 1 2 2 2

Sub Total (I + II) 30 44 45 47 47

III. Imports          

A. LNG          

1. Dahej Terminal 3 10 10 10 10

2. Hazira Terminal 0 3 3 3 3

3. Dabhol Terminal 0 - 7 7 7

4. Kochi Terminal 0 - 7 7 7

Sub Total (A) 3 13 27 27 27

B. Transnational Pipelines

         

1. Iran-Pakistan-India Pipeline

0 0 - 22 22

2. Myanmar-Bangladesh-India Pipeline

0 - 11 11 11

Grand Total 33 57 83 105 105

* includes 40 MMSCMD from Reliance K-G Basin. @ It is assumed that the additional gas finds will replace only the depleting production from the existing fields.

The important initiatives to augment gas supplies to India already finalize and under vigorous pursuit are as follows.

26

Petroleum

India is the sixth largest oil consumer in the world with a share of 3.1% of the world consumption. The dependence on import for oil has reached a level of 72%.

The crude refining capacity of India today is at 132 MT. India has achieved self sufficiency in refining, at the present demand level.

0.26 0.456.82 10.51

33.02

8.2919.14

32.26

57.75 33.37

32.43

3.46

106.97

116.01

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

1951 1956 1961 1966 1971 1976 1981 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006

Years (1951-2004)(Production and Consumption Figures Pertain to the Year Ending of the Concerned Financial

Year)

Millio

n T

on

nes

Domestic Crude Oil Production Domestic Crude Oil Consumption.

27

Petroleum – Demand & Supply

Current Concerns• India has not been able to discover new crude

deposits• Private players under NELP are new and are yet to

strike oil• High volatility in the price ranging from 10% to

60% in one month will strain economic management

Strategies• Conservation and substitution possibilities to be

explored• Long term contracts with price-bands to be

secured through bilateral contracts• Acquisition of equity oil from outside the country

to be pursued

Measures Taken• Autogas and domestic gas can replace diesel and

kerosene• Mass rapid transport systems to reduce oil use• Transport system modernization• More efficient cars leading to hybrid motor

vehicles• Biodiesel/ Biofuel (liquid) explored

Year Oil MMT

2004-05 1272009-10 1522014-15 1812019-20 2162024-25 2592029-30 309

Demand on the Business as usual basis as projected in this study.

Rate of growth

Period Percentage

1980-81 to – 03-04

5.2

04-05 to- 14-15 3.7

14-15 to 29 3.6The growth rates are within manageable levels.

28

India Power Sector

India’s growth of power demand is

among the highest in the world. Indian

power system with 115 thousand MW of

installed capacity is today among the

largest in the world. Installed capacity is

projected to become 200 thousand MW

by 2014-15 and gross to over 600

thousand MW by 2029-30. Power is

generated from every possible source of

primary and secondary electricity.

Power reforms started in 1991 and are

ongoing.

Shortages abound and quality is poor.

Efforts to attract private capital has been

successful partially.

Electricity Act,2003 followed by National

Electricity Policy, Tariff Policy, Rural

Energy Policy and Electricity Rules have

opened a new chapter and gives hopes

that power sector will become vibrant in

the next 10 years.

Past Growth

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

4000

2004-05 2009-10 2014-15 2019-20 2024-25 2029-30

Ene

rgy

Dem

and

BkW

H

0.000

100.000

200.000

300.000

400.000

500.000

600.000

700.000

Inst

alle

d C

apac

ity

Energy Required Capacity

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

1970 1980 1990 2000 2003

En

erg

y S

up

ply

(B

kWh

)

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

Cap

acit

y (M

W)

Energy Supply (BkWh) Capacity (MW)

Year Energy Bkwh Required Capacity MW2004-05 587 117.4002009-10 862 169.0202014-15 1201 230.9602019-20 1764 332.8302024-25 2304 426.6702029-30 3385 615.454

Year Energy Supply (BkWh) Capacity (MW)1970 61.2 147091980 119.3 302141990 289.4 660862000 557.9 978842003 587 117000

Electricity Projected Demand

29

India Power Sector – Report on Reforms

What went wrong Corrections madePermissions and price determinate – tortuous procedures, time delays.

Most restriction removed. No approvals for generating plant investment.

Security of payment for power supply – doubtful.

Old dues of electricity entities securitized. Current payments covered by letter of credit

IPP had to sell to utilities Open access to transmission networks introduced and direct sale to any utility or bulk consumer permitted

Transfer frequency not maintained as per technical norms

Grid code enforced. Variance for standard frequency dramatically reduced by Grid code.

Tariff politically motivated – Irrational Regulatory Commissions set up to fix tariff in a transparent objective.

Planning – natural scale – rigid Decentralized planning by Distribution Companies. Trading and exchange of power encouraged.

Captive plants not encouraged Now encouraged. Group captive permitted. Sale of surplus by captives upto 49 % of generation allowed.

T & D Losses Technical loss reduction through investments under APDRP.

Commercial loss reduction by new electricity meters, stringent laws against theft.

Introduction of franchise to manage last mile service delivery.

Reform appeared anti-poor. New Electricity Policy mandating universal supply of power to all households by 2012 corrects this impression.

30

Developed 540 Mwe PHWRs &Construction in progress; Unit size

being scaled up to 680 MWe

Developed Front End & Back End Technologies of Complete

Fuel Cycle

Established Comprehensive Indigenous Capabilities for

Designing, Equipment Manufacturing, Constructing,

Commissioning, O&M of 220 MWe PHWRs

FIRST STAGE

Design for 500 MWe PFBR developed.

Construction to commence in June 2004 .

SECOND STAGE

Fast Breeder Test Reactor (40 MWt ) Set up

Indian Nuclear Power Program : Current Status

THIRD STAGE

Experimental reactor with U233 fuel in operation.

Thorium Bundles in PHWRs.

AHWR-300 Mwe being developed in BARC. Technology Demonstration for electricity generation from Thorium.

Bridge between the I & III Stages to be Launched in X plan

India has at present installed Nuclear Power capacity of 2770 MW which is about 2.4% of the total installed capacity.

• Nuclear power corporation owns and operates 14 reactors at 6 locations

• There are 8 more reactors under construction with a capacity of 3960 MW

The nuclear power program has seen the following transition

31

Indian Nuclear Power Programme

14 reactors at 6 sites under operation 2,770 Tarapur, Rawatbhata, Kalpakkam,Narora, Kakrapar and Kaiga

6 PHWRs under construction at 1,960Tarapur (2x540 MWe),Kaiga (2x220 MWe),RAPS-5&6(2x220 MWe)

2 LWRs under construction at 2,000 Kudankulam(2x1000 MWe)

PFBR at Kalpakkam (1 X 500 MWe) 500(Pre-project activity in progress)

Projects planned till 2020 13,900PHWRs(8x700 MWe), FBRs(4x500 MWe), LWRs(6x1000 MWe), AHWR(1x300 MWe)

TOTAL by 2020 21,180

CAPACITY (MWe)REACTOR TYPE AND CAPACITIES

India plans to have an installed Nuclear power capacity of about 21,180 MW by 2020

India’s Nuclear Power Programme is designed with the long term objective to serve as the source of supply to meet our energy needs when other sources get exhausted. It is a key element of the energy self reliance strategy.

32

Hydro Power

One of the most abundantly available source for power, though constrained by the vagaries of nature, India holds a potential to the tune of 150,000 MW

Installed capacity today is 23,488 MW which is just about 17% of the estimated hydro potential.

After the enactment of Electricity Act, 2003, a Hydro Electricity Initiative has taken to conduct a comprehensive total survey of all potential sides for hydro projects upto 50000 MW and to identify projects which can deliver power at less than US cents 5 per kWh. Nearly 7000 MW have been identified, already.

India has established mutually beneficial arrangements with Bhutan where projects constructed mostly with Indian capital are handed over to Bhutan Government for management and power is purchased at mutually agreed rates. About 300 MW is being purchased and a new project with over 1000 MW will be ready by 2006 . Further potential is over 10000 MW for imports from Bhutan. Nepal is also likely source.

The possibilities of developing power generation from multiple sources and the opportunity to import hydel power from neighbouring countries suggest that achievement of the required level of power supply is within reach.

33

Index

Indian Story

In this section we present analysis of renewable energy options for India

Energy Needs & Planning

Energy Sources

Alternative Fuels

34

Alternative Fuels

In the long long run we have to depend on renewables. India is among the few countries were all possible sources and technologies are under investigation and development. In respect of wind power, small hydro, bio-mass and coal-bed methane commercialization has been achieved. Gas-hydrate is a distant prospect, but the resources are huge. :

Sources: MNES, NPCIL, BITS-Pilani, Dept. of Ocean Development, Infraline, Indo-US Co-operation Report

Source Potential Achieved so far Technically proven Commercially viable

WindGross Potential: 45,000 MWTechnical Potential: 13,000 MW 1,870 MW Y Y

Small Hydro (upto 25 MW) 15,000 MW 1,663 MW Y Y

Bio-MassBagasse based Co-gen: 3,500 MWBio-Mass: 19,500 MWBio-Mass Gasification: 16,000 MW

537 MW308 MW35 MW

Y Y

Solar Thermal 35 MW / Sq Km - - -

Solar Photovoltaic22 MW / Sq Km

2.24 MW / Sq Km

Coal Bed Methane400 Billion Cubic Meters Private investors

have taken up auctioned areas.

Y Y

Underground Coal Gasification 200 MSCMPDCommercial production to start 2007-08

Y Y

Gas Hydrate Not yet known, but huge potential - -

Ocean Energy Research is going on - - -

Fuel Cell Research is going on - - -

Hydrogen Research is going on - - -

Geo-Thermal Energy Research is going on - - -

35

Today the energy scene in India is admittedly disappointing. A crisis is brewing.

The wakeup call has been given India has started responding.

We have the material resources. Coal is abundant enough to meet the thermal power requirements. Hydel resources within India and with the neighbouring countries holds promise of meeting all our needs. The new discoveries by private investors of gas from off-shore deep wells has opened a speculation whether India would need imported gas at all after 5-10 years. Oil will have to be imported – how much would depend on actions taken towards conservation of oil in transport sector introduction of new mass transport, more and development of environment friendly cost effective bio-liquid fuels. We can afford to buy our oil requirements if the current growth rates are kept up.

However, we are deeply aware that in the power sector improving governance including modernization and professionalisation and in the coal sector appropriate reforms in the policy environment to accelerate coal production are the key to India’s energy future. Achieving these would not be easy. But, We have the appropriate leadership at the top. India’s Prime Minister is arguably the most erudite and honest leader in the World. He has the reputation for having steered India over the foreign exchange crisis. He has now started looking into energy issues as priority. We have a technical competent manpower of adequate quantity and quality .

The will to overcome the crisis is emerging .

Summing up

36

Thanks

We were challenged by Hindu-rate of growth, we have over come !

We were challenged by Food Crisis, We have overcome !

We were challenged by Forex Crisis, We have overcome !

Now, we are being challenged by Energy Crisis,

We shall overcome !

Thanks !