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The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co- ordinator

The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

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Page 1: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment

Dave ShiressSE London Housing

Partnership Co-ordinator

Page 2: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

This presentation

What is a Strategic Housing Market Assessment (SHMA)?

What’s involved in the SE London SHMA? A few headline findings Possible relevance to Social Care and Health

Sector

Page 3: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

What is a SHMA?

A more comprehensive approach to what would previously have been Housing Needs Surveys or Housing Requirements Studies.

Covered by Government Advice – Planning Policy Statement 3 (PPS3) and SHMA guidance.

A key part of the Planning evidence base e.g. for ‘Core Strategies’/Local Development Framework

Focus on sub regional housing markets. Strictly speaking there’s no such thing as a borough level SHMA.

Page 4: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Typical of inclusion in a SHMA….

Bexley Bromley Greenwich Lewisham Southwark

Market 879 1,155 3,147 2,261 3,010

Intermediate 264 119 3,072 991 2,676

Social 582 1,151 3,831 1,623 2,465

TOTAL 1,725 2,425 10,050 4,875 8,150

Market 51.0% 47.6% 31.3% 46.4% 36.9%

Intermediate 15.3% 4.9% 30.6% 20.3% 32.8%

Social 33.7% 47.5% 38.1% 33.3% 30.2%

Page 5: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

What’s involved in the SE London SHMA?

The same contractor was commissioned by each borough to complete a borough level study – and a sub regional SHMA. A “daisy chain” approach to procurement, with contractor Opinion Research Services (ORS) rolling from one borough to the next.

It’s based on 7500 household interviews in 5 SE London boroughs, using the same questionnaire and consistent methodology.

Page 6: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

What’s involved in the SE London SHMA?

It includes secondary data, stakeholder groups and interviews – and some complex modelling.

Overseen by a steering group of LA housing and planning officers + GOL and GLA.

ORS also completed a London SHMA based on secondary data. A 2 tier but consistent approach.

Page 7: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

The SE London SHMA – a suite of reports

Key findings

Core Data

Sub Groups *

Summary of stakeholder work

Technical Appendix

Executive Summary

Page 8: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

The SE London SHMA – sub group reports

1. Older People

2. BME

3. Families

4. Younger people

5. Students

6. Migrant (A10) workers

7. Health & support needs

8. Private Rented Sector

9. Public Sector Workers

10. Requirement for social rent

11. Requirement for owner occupation

12. Requirement for PRS

13. Requirement for intermediate housing

Page 9: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

An illustration of how mobility defines a sub regional housing market……

Shows clear flows from central boroughs to suburbs and beyond.

Little cross river movement

SE London extending into Kent

SE London & Kent mirrored by East London and Essex.

Commuting patterns not dissimilar

Page 10: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Source: NHS Central Register

Page 11: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some of the lessons

It’s underpinned by understanding demographics, in particular mobility and migration.A London housing market does not act in the classical supply and demand way. More supply may just result in more demand , since:Households move into an area to access supply and then bring their own needs as they expand, break up, age etc etc.Different sections of the market are more mobile

Page 12: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some of the lessons

Social housing tenants are the least mobile section – and becoming more so as turnover reduces. It’s not social housing tenants or applicants who move to access new supply.Most mobile section is in private rented sector. This sector has expanded greatly in SE London since 2001 and private renters are the group most responsive to new supply (e.g. Buy to Let)Owner occupied sector is diminishing particularly owner occupiers with mortgages.

Page 13: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Housing Tenure

Source: Census 2001, SHMA 2008 Preliminary Analysis

Page 14: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some of the lessons

In SE London, the groups moving in and moving out of the sub region have different profiles:

IN OUT

Younger Older

Single people Families and couples

Private renters Owner occupiers

Significant BME Predominantly White

From overseas and London To rest of UK

Slightly higher incomes

Page 15: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Another illustration of mobility/migration

SE London gained (net) population from:

1. Lambeth 10,330

2. Tower Hamlets 2,850

3. Wandsworth 2,610

All the Top 10 are in London(2002-7, ONS data)

Page 16: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Understanding the sub regional housing market

SE London lost (net) population to:

1. Dartford 6,080

2. Sevenoaks 5,610

3. Medway 5,290

(All the Top 10 are in Kent)(2002-7, ONS data)

Page 17: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some headline findings

Ethnicity of SE London population is changing rapidly but may not be characteristic of London.

Black African has grown significantly

Asian shows few signs of increasing.

Very marked differences between inner and outer London.

Page 18: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some headline findings

Private Rented Sector has grown significantly but growth of population of HB dependent tenants in PRS less so.

PRS has potential to cater for a growing number of households, but many landlords still reluctant to take people on HB/LHA.

Page 19: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some headline findings

Examples of some wild cards:

1. Students

2. Transport

3. EmploymentBorough boundaries are irrelevant to all of these, but

they can greatly influence the housing market.

Page 20: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some headline findings

19% of the population reported a ‘health problem’ and 27% of households.

Most housing problems relating to health can be solved in situ but about 1000 social housing tenants need to move.

Page 21: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Some headline findings

12.7% of the population is over 65 but this is increasing. 63% of the increase will be in Bromley+ Bexley.

BME pensioner population due to increase but 30% currently appear to be part of extended households.

1800 pensioner households require adaptations for mobility needs to be met; 400 need to move.

Page 22: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

Relevance to Social Care and Health sector?

Reports are fairly large – but more analysis can still be doneProbably the most household data since 2001 censusHeld as a data set that can be shared with colleagues. Other sources of housing data may be relevant too – e.g. modelling of private housing stock condition

Page 23: The SE London Strategic Housing Market Assessment Dave Shiress SE London Housing Partnership Co-ordinator

…and finally

If the market and how we look at it is sub regional, are the solutions all sub regional too?