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The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math.

The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

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Page 1: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

The Scientific Method

…lots and lots and lots of math.

Page 2: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Tujuan bahasan

1. What is the scientific method?2. What does the scientific

method assume?3. Does the scientific method

work?4. What is not a scientific

argument.5. Does astrology follow the

scientific method?

Page 3: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Metode ilmiah

1. Observe an event.2. Develop a model (or hypothesis) which

makes a prediction.3. Test the prediction.4. Observe the result.5. Revise the hypothesis.6. Repeat as needed.7. A successful hypothesis becomes a

Scientific Theory.

model

test

Page 4: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Everyday Science

Scientific Method Car Repair

Observation Engine won’t turn over.

Hypothesis (prediction)

Predict battery is dead.

Test Replace battery.

Observe result Engine now turns over.

Revise hypothesis? Not needed.

New test? Not needed.

Scientific Theory Cars won’t work without a fully charged battery.

Page 5: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Everyday Science

Scientific Method Making Spaghetti Sauce

Observation Spaghetti sauce should be red.

Hypothesis (prediction)

Try a tomato sauce.

Test Heat pot of tomato sauce.

Observe result Taste the sauce - bland.

Revise hypothesis? Use tomato sauce and garlic!

New test? Add garlic, taste - not so bland.

Scientific Theory The Final Recipe.

Page 6: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Food Science

• Throwing something together Hypothesis

• Your grandmother’s time-tested recipe Scientific Theory.

Page 7: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Repeatability

• A successful theory is repeatable.–By you.–By anyone.

• Examples:–Cold Fusion (1989)–Ecstasy (Science, 2003)

Page 8: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Requirements

• Objective reality– We all see the same world.

• Constant Laws of Nature– What happens here, happens

there.– What happened yesterday will

happen tomorrow.• The Cosmos is knowable.

Page 9: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Does it work?

• Scientific Method is a tool.• Does this tool work?

– Life expectancy– Mortality rates

• Are there better tools?

Page 10: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Theories

1. So: a theory is a highly successful hypothesis.

2. All hypotheses make predictions.3. All theories make predictions.4. All theories can be tested.5. Result: Any scientific theory is subject

to change as our ability to make tests, or make observations of a test’s results, improves with time.

Page 11: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Non-scientific Theories

1. Make no predictions2. Un-testable3. Can’t be falsified

Page 12: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Non-scientific Theories

• Car won’t work? Aliens drained the battery.

• Spaghetti is bland? You were meant to eat bland food.

• Car won’t work? Gods must be angry.

• Spaghetti is bland? At the instant of tasting, tongue is transported to alternate dimension where all flavors are rendered nullified. Happens instantaneously.

Page 13: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Non-scientific Theories

• The chain of events needed for life to arise is too complicated to have happened by chance, a divine intelligence must therefore have caused life to arise (Intelligent Design).

• Face on Mars.

Viking Orbiter (1976) Mars Global Surveyor (1998)

Page 14: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

PEMALSUAN

• A real Scientific Theory tells you what observations are necessary to falsify it.– Not so proponents of:

• Face on Mars• Moon Hoax• Intelligent Design• Astrologers

Page 15: The Scientific Method …lots and lots and lots of math

Astrology and the President

(TIME, May 16, 1988) -- “The First Lady dabbled in astrology as far back as 1967. In 1981 [Joan] Quigley made Nancy a believer …. And from then on, no presidential public appearance was slated without the Friend's say-so. To this day, Nancy's Friend continues to influence the President's schedule. For the Reagan-Gorbachev Washington summit, she cast the charts of both men and determinedthat 2 p.m. on Dec. 8, 1987, was the most propitious moment for them to sign the intermediate-range nuclear forces treaty. At Nancy's behest, the entire summit was built around that hour. For the upcoming Moscow summit, Gorbachev's chart (he is a Pisces) has been recast alongside Reagan's (Aquarius).”

“[Former White House Chief of Staff, Donald] Regan and others make a compelling case that in 1986 and 1987 astrological influence dramatically reduced the presidency's effectiveness, at least partly, by keeping Ronald Reagan under wraps for much of the time. Nancy's intrusions in the scheduling process, Regan said in an interview with TIME last week, ‘began to interfere with the normal conduct of the presidency.’”

(TIME, May 16, 1988)