The Science of DiscoveryMoving from an Exploration to a

Discovery MindsetTim Craske, Geowisdom and Thinker.Events

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Unstoppable commodity price swells and waves…...

Ride the Wave!

Missed WaveStranded Resource

Surfing Price Trends

Shaping MarketOver investmentat cost peakSmashed

Background Image source: Inhabitat.com

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Beware Probability BlindnessSpecific numeric probability definitions: (CIA via Strictly Boardroom)

• Certain: 100%

• Almost certain: 93% (+/- 6%)

• Probable: 75% (+/- 12%)

• Chances about even: 50% (+/- 10%)

• Probably not: 30% (+/- 10%)

• Almost certainly not: 7% (+/- 5%)

• Impossible: 0%

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Based on this chance of large mineral deposit discoveryshould be considered close to impossible!

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Capability gap closure – requires Innovation

Transformational

Breakthrough

Incremental

Company → Sector → Industry

Co

mp

any

→

Sect

or

→

Ind

ust

ry

Value Creation

Co

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ete

nce

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LEVEL OF INNOVATION REQUIRED

Radical Improvement

Changing the Rules or Meaning

Simple ProcessesIncremental Changes

IndustrywideCollaborativeInnovation

To get there need more Idealistic GoalsBackcast from these rather than trying toForecast the future via incremental projections

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POWER OF PERCEPTION

“Most thinking errors are errors of perceptionnot errors of logic”Edward De Bono

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Rule#2:“Fight the Hydra” – Multi-Headed Dogma

Rudolph Tegner -Hercules and the Hydra 19196Cu2TW2019

“Mining turns rocks into $Money”

7Image Source: www.amusingplanet.com Stone Sculptures by Hirotoshi Itoh, 2012

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Exploration needs a broader Conceptual Framework

Mineralising SystemsScience

Targeting Science

Value Chain

Stakeholders Licence toOperate

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Discovery

Science

Mineralising SystemsScience

Targeting Science

Value Chain

Stakeholders

Licence toOperate

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What got you here…won’t get you there!

• We have hero’s of discovery

• David Lowell – Porphyry Coppers including Escondida in 1979

• Nikolay Urvantsev – Norilsk Nickel Copper sulphides in 1914

• Roy Woodall – Kambalda Ni 1966- ExDiv successes OD

• Men of their day- given search space at given time

• To do same today we would need to do differently

Take care listening to old war stories

David Lowell(source: Mining.com)

Roy Woodall(source: Aus Acc Sci)

NikolayUrvantsev(Norilsk)

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A Cruel Paradox?

It would appear that knowing in great detail how a deposit can form……….does not help much in making them easy to find!

Example: VMS deposits……ask Sandfire Resources

Logical Deduction: Studying deposits to understand how they formed may not help us much……

……So why continue to invest in these PhD studiesvs Mineralising Geosystem studies?

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Reality: Typical Detection Level Tool

Positive

Negative

TrueFalse

False-Positivesswamp target population

*If go under deeper covercost of systematic testingbecomes prohibitive

False-NegativesTool not effectivein search spaceAnomalies missed

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Other Inconvenient Truths Current science and tools are not finding orebodies…….

The two globally best known and most successful explorers –Mark Creasy and Robert Friedland …….are not geologists

Big Picture geoscience is often just science…….not applied by explorers

Serendipity still appears more important than geology in discovery

The best exploration thinkers and mineral discovers do not work for major or even medium sized companies….many are underemployed

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Beware the “Planning Fallacy”

Planning does not eliminate Uncertainty or Risk!

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New Hope#1: Organising and Teamwork

• Teams have left brain analytical DEDUCTIVE thinkers and

• Right Brain more intuitive INDUCTIVE thinkers

• Targeting requires integration of both and ABDUCTIVE thinking

• Need to leverage all thinking skill sets in the team

• Rule takers , rule makers and rule imagineers

Source: research-methodology.net

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Big Data

Data

InformationKnowledge

UnderstandingPlus

Imagination

Wisdom

Imagination

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Rule #5: Use Imagineering

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“Imagination is more important than Knowledge”

Albert Einstein

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RULE #6: Make Luck= Planned Serendipity

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What is Serendipity?

The combination of accident and sagacity

Sagacity

We need to recognise the VALUE of chance event

‘deep perception’ or ‘awareness’

Black Swan Events? Cannot predict …….but can often recognise signs of approaching evente.g. GFC – signs that balancing feedback loops not working

?

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How to attract Good Luck?

• “Luck is opportunity meeting preparedness”

• Roy Woodallspoke about important role of luck in discovery

• Luck is usually retrospective…..

• But HINDSIGHT very dangerous - rationalisation ≠ truth

• Luck Attractors: generosity (wealth not $)increased energylucky mindset

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BIG Rule #7: Use Systems Thinking

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• Gain deep understanding of Systems

• Make Systems Maps

• Use mathematics to model and test sensitivities

• Analyse for insights and identification of key levers

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The Why? – without Systems Thinkingwe get it wrong….

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Feedback Loops ExpectedCu2TW2019

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Example: Tin Mineralising System

MappingHelping us understand& predict ore since 2017

Sedimentary AccumulationSub-system

Granitic AccumulationSub-system

Ore SystemSub-systems

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The Discovery Science Mindset1. Humility

2. Contrarian Thinking

3. Real Team Diversity

4. Wealth not Dollar$

5. Imagineer

6. Make Luck – Planned Serendipity

7. Use Systems Thinking

8. Mineralising Systems are Pan-dimensionale.g. fractal structure

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