Note: This is the work of fiction. No depicted persons, events or operations actually existed, exist or will exist. It is just an artistic creation, the expansion of my book "Svejk 2: The Army Elite" by Alan Svejk.

The Russian CrossroadsAlan Svejk

What will Putin do next?

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Page 1 The Russian Crossroads by Alan Svejk

Note: This is the work of fiction. No depicted persons, events or operations actually existed, exist or will exist. It is just an artistic creation, the expansion of my book "Svejk 2: The Army Elite" by Alan Svejk.

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The Russian Crossroads by Alan Svejk

The combination of low oil prices and U.S./EU economic sanctions cornered Russia. Such afast and deep crisis of the national currency brings many consequences and clear perspectiveof world instability. What will Putin do next? We can imagine just anything, includinganother military action.

The Western world reacted to Crimean/Ukrainian crisis with refusal and firm stance, inclu-ding economic sanctions. But one key fact was omitted: Russia is still one of the threeworld superpowers. So the approach to this country should be always careful and using"soft power" as much as possible. But the West took another stance, a confrontation, notrealizing, how risky are these decisions of limiting Russian influence in Europe and pushingRussian borders back.

It seems, that the Crimean/Ukrainian crisis was Putin´s message to European Union. Afterall, Russia always declared that they perceive any expansion of the EU to their own bordersas a threat. And Putin´s reaction was decisive and agressive: instead of just watching how theworld around is changing, Russia entered the political and even real battlefield with Ukraini-an invasion. The sleeping bear was awoken.

Another events followed: Russia started searching for new allies, to strengthen friendly ties.China in the first place, India later, and even North Korea. From these moves, it is clear thatRussia felt endangered, and Putin decided to save life space for his country, making evenvery controversial decisions. But from his point of view, it was the question of survival.

Note, that this situation is very beneficial for North Korea. Their world importance is risingin such unstable conditions, and we can expect more opened North Korean approach to theworld, for getting more power and respect. In other words, they will show more friendlyface, to gain the possibilities, that are distributed during every serious crisis. They will parti-cipate in following negotiations, breaking their isolation.

One thing is sure - if Putin will start to blame the West from causing Russian crisis, wecan expect really serious things, including another military action. Because it could bethe only solution for Putin, how to save face in front of the world. He will not just watch, howhis country is collapsing. He is a cold and calculating player, able to make unexpected and

Page 2 The Russian Crossroads by Alan Svejk

Note: This is the work of fiction. No depicted persons, events or operations actually existed, exist or will exist. It is just an artistic creation, the expansion of my book "Svejk 2: The Army Elite" by Alan Svejk.

bold moves. Nobody should underestimate him, and he should be respected as dangerous ad-versary.

There is one logical target for such an action: the Middle East. There is a power vacuum, af-ter the U.S. cleared positions, and also the world urges to solve the dangerous crisis there,and it could inspire Putin to enter this relatively open space, and expand the influence ofRussia, bringing optimism to Russian people and economy, improving his own position ofpower and the perception of Russia by the world media and politicans, altering their decisi-ons.

Moreover, entering Middle East, he could easily influence the OPEC, and they could startlistening to him, raising the oil prices and helping him to save Russian economy. And hewould promise them to keep the Middle East stabilized, limiting IS influence and wide localunrest.

The U.S. will have to make many difficult decisions. The current situation in the Middle Eastis very complicated, and with Russia entering this realm, the U.S. could be pushed back,losing ground and influence.

For the U.S. economy, there can be indirect consequences, like pesimism on the financialmarkets, general tension in business, and worries of uncertain future. Such a pity - the pre-dictions for 2015 seemed so optimistic, with hope, that the 2008 World Financial Crisis willbe finally finished. That time, the crisis came from the West - this time, it comes from theEast, maybe even as a retaliation, as a tool of Unconventional Warfare.

Well, this will be no calm Christmas.

© Alan Svejk 2014. VIP Affairs | Copywriter | Media PR | Propaganda | PSYOPS |Cyber Warfare | Security | Military | Special Services. www.linkedin.com/in/alansvejk

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