The Role of the Internal

Combustion Engine in our Energy Future

Anthony Greszler

Volvo Organisation

Mack Trucks

Renault Trucks

Volvo Trucks

Volvo Aero

Financial Services

AB Volvo Business Areas

Business Units

Volvo 3P

Volvo Powertrain

Volvo Parts

Volvo Information Technology & Others

Volvo Logistics

BA Asia Incl. UD Trucks

Volvo Penta

Construction Equipment Buses

HD Vehicle Market has Huge Variety Size, Shape, Duty Cycle

Projection – Provided by US DOE in 2009

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050

Year

Cons

umpt

ion, m

bpd Oil

Oil

Oil Inte

Oil Hau

Source: US DOE - GPRA 06 FCVT Heavy Vehicle Benefits

Projected Fuel Use for Heavy Trucks through 2050.

70% Highway 80% Class 7-8 Long-Haul Class 7-8

Intermediate-Haul Class 7-8

Class 3-6

Local Class 7-8

FOCUS On Class 8 Long-Haul

Factors Influencing Power Choices for Motor Vehicles

• Power Demand Requirements • Fuel Availability • Durability • Reliability • Operating Cost • Acquisition Cost • Emissions • Range with on-board fuel • Size • Weight • Response lag time • Cooling Requirements • Refueling time

Factors Driving Potential ICE Replacement

• Finite supply of fossil fuel -Cost Impact

• GHG emissions • Energy security • Better alternatives?

Driving Factors all Relate to Fuel Issues

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2001 2004 2007 2010 2014 2017 2020

BS

FC (l

b/B

HP

H)

Year

Historical Look -Best Point BSFC US HD On-Highway Diesels

Best BSFC low speed marine diesel* 13 g/hp-hr Nox * Unlimited cooling capacity *2 stroke* 95 RPM * Full Load * Unlimited space and weightWaste Heat Recover -max electrical output 12% of engine*Uses exhaust turbine (diverts 10% of exhaust to power turbine) and rankine cycle from exhaust heat

Consent Decree 6g/hp-hr NOx

2.5 g/hp-hr NOx 1.2 g/hp-hr NOx .2g/hp-hr Nox

with SCR

Diesel 51% T.E.Waste Heat Electrical adds 6%57% total Thermal Eff

38%

40%

43%

46%

50%

US Emission Levels

188

176

200 gr/kw-hr

164

419

448

477

506

390

B T E

G H G

g-CO2/H

P-hr

2014 RMC Cycle GHG target =475

2017 RMC Cycle GHG target =460

Historical & Projected HD US Diesel Efficiency

Alternatives to ICE’s

• Gas Turbine

• Rankine

• Sterling

Don’t really address the problem unless they provide substantial

improved efficiency

• BEV

• Fuel Cell

• Other?

Gas Turbine? • Efficiency challenged to get

above 40% in mobile applications.

• Efficiency suffers at light load compared to diesel

• Slow response • Expensive – even compared

to full diesel emissions package

• Might be an option in hybrid combination

• But doesn’t offer a real advantage over diesel ICE

Rankine Engine? • Has been around a long

time in various forms • Recent incarnations may

be feasible for on-road motor vehicles

• Still doesn’t approach diesel efficiency targets

• Greater fuel flexibility may offer some opportunity

• Still no indication that it will become a significant player in motor industry

Sterling Engine?

• Never a strong consideration for motor vehicles

• Bulky

• Slow responding

• Materials limit operating temperature and efficiency

• Practical efficiency does not approach diesel

PEM or SOFC Fuel Cell? PEM is 50-60% EFFICIENT

– 45% of fuel energy must be extracted by coolant at temperatures around 70-80C.

– For heavy-duty, this would mean a massive cooling system with negative aerodynamic consequences.

– With H2 from fossil sources GHG outcome is significantly worse than diesel hybrid

Does it make sense to synthesize H2 from renewable electricity sources?

– Some analyses indicate only 22% of electrical energy makes it to the wheels

On-board H2 storage is not capable of long-haul range requirements.

Typical mobile SOFC has only 30-35% electrical efficiency, but potential of 50-55% plus waste heat secondary cycle

– Long warm-up time

– Could be a possible option, but a long way from feasible.

– Still requires energy dense on-board fuel

Battery requirements for electric propulsion

45 000 tons of batteries. The take off weight is 413 tons ! Not possible!

10 kg for 10 km Possible!

40 kg for 10 km Possible!

200 kg for 10 km Possible!

20 tons for 1000 km Not possible!

Battery operation alone not possible for Long Haul/Coach …

One possible Full Electric Option… • A Plug In vehicle able to charge from

a “Slide In” track in the road

• Can REALISTICLY reduce the Energy Use by 50 % (Long haul) up to 75 % (Cars)

• Almost eliminates the use of fossil fuel

• Does not require any Rocket Science and can have realistic safety

• But requires development of safe and reliable method to electrify major roadways.

Asphalt

BATT

ERY Converter

to Battery Voltage

Where does that leave us?

• Diesel cycle engines will be prime movers for freight transport for a long time – This means compression ignition, not necessarily

diesel fuel

• Vehicle electrification (where feasible) and efficiency improvements should be applied as broadly and quickly as possible

• Fossil and biofuels should be reserved for long-haul transport and industrial feedstocks that don’t have alternatives.

0.25

0.27

0.29

0.31

0.33

0.35

0.37

0.39

1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 1999 2001 2004 2007 2010 2014 2017 2020

BS

FC (l

b/B

HP

H)

Year

Historical Look -Best Point BSFC US HD On-Highway Diesels

Best BSFC low speed marine diesel* 13 g/hp-hr Nox * Unlimited cooling capacity *2 stroke* 95 RPM * Full Load * Unlimited space and weightWaste Heat Recover -max electrical output 12% of engine*Uses exhaust turbine (diverts 10% of exhaust to power turbine) and rankine cycle from exhaust heat

Consent Decree 6g/hp-hr NOx

2.5 g/hp-hr NOx 1.2 g/hp-hr NOx .2g/hp-hr Nox

with SCR

Diesel 51% T.E.Waste Heat Electrical adds 6%57% total Thermal Eff

38%

40%

43%

46%

50%

US Emission Levels

188

176

200 gr/kw-hr

164

419

448

477

506

390

B T E

G H G

g-CO2/H

P-hr

2014 RMC Cycle GHG target =475

2017 RMC Cycle GHG target =460

So, how do we achieve these efficiencies?

Back to Basics…

• Air-Standard Otto-Cycle

0

0.1

0.2

0.3

0.4

0.5

0.6

0.7

0.8

0.9

0 10 20 30

Effi

cien

cy

Compression Ratio

gamma = 1.3

gamma = 1.4

gamma = 1.5

Efficiency goes up with rc

Efficiency goes up with Gamma

Is it really this simple? Gamma (Cp/Cv) for dry air is 1.4 at 20 C. Gamma decreases with increasing temperature. Gamma decreases for burned gases vs unburned gases. (EGR is negative)

Typical Diesel

0.3

0.35

0.4

0.45

0.5

0.55

0.6

0.65

0.7

0.75

10 15 20 25

Effic

ienc

y

Compression Ratio

Efficiency vs. Compression Ratio

Theoretical CycleEfficiency

Heat Transfer &Combustion Loss

Friction Loss

Pumping Loss

ITE

BTE

2-3%

1-2%

2 4 6 8

2-3%

2-3%

BTE Efficiency Gain(%)

Path from 43% to 50% Thermal Efficiency? • Combustion

– Peak cylinder pressure – High efficiency SCR to decouple

NOx/efficiency trade-off • Turbocharger & gas handling efficiency • Exhaust & EGR Heat Energy Recovery

– Turbo-compound – Rankine cycle – Thermo-electric

• Friction, lubricants – Efficient accessories

• Managing engine speed & load within optimal efficiency range via powertrain innovation – Hybridization in appropriate duty cycles – Idle elimination

• Alternative premixed combustion strategies – RCCI, PCCI, LTC

1-2%

1-2%

Conclusions • Although electrification options are feasible to displace a

majority of fossil fuel in light duty applications, this is not true for long-haul, heavy duty.

• There are no significant alternatives to ICE’s for long-haul heavy transport.

• Diesel cycle engines will continue dominate in this market – Even natural gas engines will likely be compression ignition for

long-haul – Other fuels (even typical SI fuels) may be used in low

temperature combustion schemes • Secondary waste heat recovery cycles will see increasing

use • Efficiency will be driven by fuel cost and by regulation

– NOx battle has been won – Efficiency and GHG is the new front