The Role of Space Community in

the support of GFCS

with the development of an

Architecture for Climate Monitoring

from Space

Dr Wenjian Zhang, D/OBS, WMO

Robert Husband, EUMETSAT

John Bates, CEOS-CGMS WG Climate,

NOAA

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Sixteenth WMO Congress Resolution 19 (Cg-XVI, 2011)

DEVELOPMENT OF AN SPACE ARCHITECTURE FOR CLIMATE MONITORING Challenges and Opportunities 1: Promotion role of GFCS for Space Architecture Development

• Considering: The underpinning role that observations will play in the Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS),

• Decides that an architecture for climate monitoring from space should be developed, to provide a framework for the sustained & coordinated monitoring of the Earth’s climate from space;

• Invites CEOS, CGMS, GCOS, GEO & WCRP to collaborate with the WMO Space Programme on the development

Agriculture

Health

Water

Disaster Risk Reduction

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Why do we need a Climate Monitoring Architecture?

• To provide a structured and comprehensive view as to what Climate

Data Records are available from Earth Observation satellites

• To create the conditions for delivering further Climate Data Records

through best use of existing data holdings

• To optimise the planning of future satellite missions and

constellations in order to expand existing and planned Climate Data

Records, in terms of both coverage and record length, and address

possible gaps

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Opportunity: Global promotion through GFCS to convince

governments for enhanced and sustained space observations

• Excerpt from President J.F. Kennedy’s

address to the UN General Assembly, 25 September 1961…, he said:

• Here, with new scientific tools like modern computers and satellites, the atmospheric sciences require worldwide observations and, hence, international cooperation …-lead to World Weather Watch Program decision at WMO Cg-4 (1963)

• Space Architecture for Climate needs greater governmental & Intl Org support

• 50+ years development of WMO Space-based observations

1961 1978

1990 2014

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气象灾害监测预警-张文建

WMO is coordinating New baseline with three

orbital planes in the 2025 Vision for WMO

Space Global Observing System

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Challenges & Opportunities 2: Partnership & collaborations

CEOS, CGMS, GCOS, GEO, WCRP, GFCS, all end users

• CEOS-CGMS-WMO ad hoc group on

Architecture for Climate Monitoring

from Space, Chair: Mark Dowell

• A report: Strategy Towards an

Architecture for Climate Monitoring

from Space

• The strategy presents a proposed

logical architecture that represents a

first step in the development of a

physical architecture.

• Outline of the report – Executive Summary and

recommendations

– Introduction, Objectives & Targets

– Climate Monitoring Principles, Requirements & Guidelines

– State of the Art

– Beyond research to operations

– Climate Architecture definition

– Mechanisms for Interaction

– Roadmap for way forward

– Recommendations

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GFCS Use-driven Requirements to Space

Agencies is Through CEOS-CGMS WGClimate

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An end-to-end Architecture Design for monitoring climate

for both long-term trend & extreme events in real time

I1

Earth Environment

O1

DecisionsDecision-Making

(including

adaptation &

mitigation policy

and planning)A5

ReportsSense Earth

Environment

A1

Observations

Create and

Maintain

Short/Medium

Term Climate Data

Records

A2

Create and

Maintain Long-

term Climate Data

Records

A3

Interim Climate

Data Records

Operational

Climate Monitoring

A4

Long-term Climate

Variability &

Climate Change

Analysis

A7

Climate Data

Records

Create and Maintain

Higher-Level Climate

Information (e.g. CDR

analysis or model-

based reanalysis)

A8

Climate Information

Records

Sensing Climate Record Creation Applications Decision-Making

Instrument level Observation level Product level Service level

Seasonal outlook

Attribution of events

Climate indices

…

EC

Vs

Global Precipitation Climatology Project (GPCP)

GPCP is an international, inter-agency effort to provide CDR-quality global

precipitation analyses at monthly, pentad and daily time scales.

Climatology (1979-2013)

mm/d

GPCP data used in > 1500 journal articles

Essential Climate Variable - Precipitation

GPCP CDR Objectives 1) To successfully update, streamline

and integrate the GPCP production code for “automated” sustained production,

2) Develop an “interim” CDR for GPCP monthly for operational climate analysis.

3) Derive sector-focused climate information records driven by decision making needs

9

Interim CDR GPCP Monthly Analysis for July 2014 for Routine Monitoring

An Interim CDR of monthly, global precipitation (within 10 days of the end of the month) is being produced

mm/day

10

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Challenges & Opportunities 2: Partnership & collaborations

Operational + R&D missions; Space + Surface

Research + Operations Longest surface T instruments measurements (>140 years)

Against 30 years average (1961-1990)

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Courtesy Jhoon Kim, Andreas Richter

GEMS

Sentinel-4 TEMPO

Spatial coverage of funded spectrometers 2018-2020 Policy-relevant science and environmental services enabled by common observations

The Space Architecture will Integrate operational and R&D satellites building synergies for enhanced climate observing capabilities:

Example: Geostationary pollution monitoring - health

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GCOS assesses progress and requirements, advises on implementation, and

reports to UNFCCC on the status of observing systems for climate.

GCOS Sponsors & Partners of observing components

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Challenges and Opportunities 3:

Document broader requirements • Services Requirements:

– The Global Framework for Climate Services (GFCS) Implementation Plan (WMO extraordinary Session, October 2012) adds another dimension to the requirements directly link to the user’s application areas: agriculture and food security, water resources, health and disaster risk reduction

• Assessment Requirements: – The IPCC’s 4th Assessment Report (2007) underscores the urgent need for critical climate data, and an

international architecture supporting them, to observe and monitor the global water cycle and the global carbon cycle.

• Climate Modelling Requirements: – Model initialisation and definition of boundary conditions

– Model development and validation

• Observing and Data Requirements – Climate Observations:Essential Climate Variables (GCOS ECV Inventory) defined by Global Climate Observing

System (GCOS-82, 2003), Fundamental Climate Data Record (FCDR)…

• It is clear that the requirements extending beyond the capabilities of one-time research missions and operational satellite systems in existence today.

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Members’

organizations and

programmes

15

WMO Standard Practice: Rolling Review of Requirements - to identify new observing requirements & gaps of new initiatives (GFCS, Architecture.)

“Statement of

Guidance”

and

Implementation Plan

for observing

capabilities

(Actions,

Recommendations)

Requirements Requirements

Requirements Requirements

Gap Analysis

on

observations Derived

variables Performances

Space and

ground-based

capabilities

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Weather • Climate • Water 16

Gaps and deficiencies identified through the

GFCS IP

• Inadequate atmospheric observations, limited space and surface-based remote sensing capabilities, and the absence of operational monitoring of some important air quality, radiation, etc…;

• Inadequate observational coverage of important oceanographic variables (ocean currents, mass flux, ocean salinity, and sea ice parameters);

• Inadequate terrestrial observing networks (river discharge, ground water, lake levels, permafrost, glaciers and ice caps) and absence of designated networks for soil moisture, Leaf Area Index (LAI), Fraction of Absorbed Photo-synthetically Active Radiation (FAPAR) and above ground biomass

World Climate Conferences

1990 – WCRP – World Climate Research Programme. SCIENCE

2000 – GCOS – Global Climate Observing System. OBSERVATIONS

2009 – GFCS- Global Framework for Climate Services. SERVICES

17 1 October 2014

These programmes report directly to the United Nations Framework on Climate Change (UNFCCC) and there Parties are expected to support them.

GCOS (2010) Implementation Plan for the Global

Observing System for Climate in Support of the

UNFCCC. GCOS-138, Geneva, 180 pp

Requirements: Global Climate Observing System – Essential Climate Variables (ECVs)

World Climate Conferences

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Observations for Climate Change Mitigation

& for adaptation to climate variability & change GCOS, in collaboration with the Land

Cover Project Office from the Global

Observation for Forest Cover and Land

Dynamics (GOFC-GOLD), has

organized an international workshop to

consider the climate observation

requirements to support actions for

climate change mitigation.

Focus on Land Use (Agriculture)

and Forest

Representatives from UNFCCC,

FAO, ICRAF, ESA, IPCC, etc. Workshop website:

http://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/gcos/index.

php?name=ObservationsforMitigation

Inventory Questionnaire • Joint activity CEOS, CGMS and WMO – call issued in May 2012

• Questionnaire form – through a web interface

• 45 total questions based on 5 topics (General, Usage, Stewardship, Properties, Access)

• Responses requested at the dataset level

• Addresses both existing/past missions and future/planned mission in two separate questionnaires

• Each single entry takes on average 25 minutes to complete

• ~220 dataset entries as of March 2013 with good representation across domains

Inventory Statistics – ECV Timelines

WGClimate Meeting, Geneva, February 2013

20

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--Pose with the Atlas of Health And Climate,

during a press conference on the extraordinary

session of World Meteorological Congress,

2012 in Geneva.

--With droughts, floods and hurricanes like the

one bearing down on New York affecting the

health of millions of people each year, WMO

and WHO health agencies presented an

overview of how climate data can help protect

public health.

Director General of the World Health Organization (WHO) Margaret

Chan (L) and World Meteorological Organization (WMO)

Secretary-General, Michel Jarraud (R)

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Technical challenges : from user requirements into

missions/instruments/observations/products/info

Datasets

ECV Products and climate extremes

Observation &

Monitoring

Instruments Specifications: Instrument type,

Orbit, Scanning mode,

Spectral bands,

Channel width, SNR, …

Observational requirements: Geophysical variable,

Unit, Domain,

Spatial resolution,

Temporal resolution,

Uncertainty … Source, Format,

Projection,

Segmentation,

Quality flag,

Compression,

Metadata…

Product requirements: Type (numerical, graphical, binary, alert),

Algorithm,

Spatial/temporal resolution,

Quality control

Service requirements: Content, Presentation,

Delivery media, Timeliness,

Continuity,

User support, Training, ..

Services info needs

USERS’

needs

USERS’ satisfaction

Challenges and Opportunities 4: Turning Observations

into Knowledge Climate Products & Information

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Trend = 0.17 K Dec-1

250

251

252

253

254

1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 1997 1999 2001 2003

Combined

Linear (Combined)

Longest surfac

Challenges and Opportunities: from observations to infomation

Long-term quality controled records for climate monitoring & services

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Challenges and Opportunities 5:

– Free and Open data Policy • Key Role of Space Community in support of GFCS –

support global Free and Open data Policy Framework: – GFCS needs Governments and Space Agencies support for free and open

exchange of climate-relevant surface and space data, products & info.

Challenges and Opportunities 6: Realize Benefits

through applications - User engagement

Understanding

Models

Predictions

Consequences Validation

Initialization

Monitoring

Analysis

Observations

The Architecture with enhanced observations will motivate advances in understanding, prediction, and application.

--Number of satellite-borne

instruments data were assimilated

routinely by ECMWF

--Expect enhanced satellite data

utilization for improved climate

prediction performance

for Climate Services

Road Map – How & Who

Describe Current and Planned Implementation Arrangements (ECV-by-

ECV) within an Inventory

Use the Inventory & GFCS to Develop a Coordinated Action Plan to Address

Identified Gaps/Shortfalls

Define, Validate and Obtain Consensus on Overall Approach

(including logical representation) Short-term

(within 2 years)

Medium-term

(2-4 years)

Current status

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Summary • The initiative to develop a climate monitoring architecture has attracted

widespread support from EO space agencies, with consensus achieved

on the overall approach – now in the implementation phase.

• built-in compliance assessment to requirements, traceability, flexibility,

consistency

• The architecture will provide the foundation for implementing the

Observations and Monitoring pillar of GFCS, thus sustaining the

provision of observations for climate services.

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Thank You

WMO Space Programme contribution at both ends of the chain

Space Segment analysis

building on OSCAR/Space

• Identify CGMS missions with potential to deliver FCDRs (with ET/SAT)

• Encourage CGMS commitment to deliver and sustain such FCDRs

• Highlight gaps & prompt actions

Usage scenarios

in GFCS priority areas

• Identify end user requirements for climate services in key areas

• Infer the product requirements and specifications (with ET-SUP)

• Highlight gaps and prompt actions