Charles Soothill

17 June 2014

The role of Gas and Coal? Oxford Transformative Change

Alstom Power

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 2

Agenda

•  The changing markets for electricity and generation technology

•  The technologies for transformational change

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 3

Past 50 years of market development Order for new power plant in GW p.a.

6 2 0

5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0

6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2

6 2 0

5 0 1 0 0 1 5 0 2 0 0 2 5 0 3 0 0 3 5 0

6 4 6 6 6 8 7 0 7 2 7 4 7 6 7 8 8 0 8 2 8 4 8 6 8 8 9 0 9 2 9 4 9 6 9 8 0 0 0 2 0 4 0 6 0 8 1 0 1 2

Steam Plant GT Plant Nuclear Hydro Wind Solar Geothermal Biomass

GW p.a.

GW p.a.

Renewable

All boom

Coal boom

Gas boom

First Nuclear Wave

From 1978 exclude GT & ST Industrial size

China Asia Middle East & Africa South & Central America North America Europe

Global boom

Financial Crisis

China boom

US boom

Gas boom

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 4

Other renewable

Solar

Wind

Hydro

Nuclear

Conventional Steam Plant

GT Plant

New Power Plant Orders

Global power market forecast – medium term

Diversified mix – growing share of Renewables across the globe Source: ALSTOM 2013

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME 2014 - 23/06/2014 – P 4

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 5

GAS

HYDRO

SOLAR

TIDAL

COAL

NUCLEAR (conventional island)

GEOTHERMAL

OIL

WIND (offshore and onshore)

BIOMASS

...for new plants or installed base

Alstom Power: present in all markets

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 6

Alstom Thermal Power Installed fleet

> 3’975 plants around the world with Alstom equipment installed

GT Plants ST Plants ST Nuclear Plants Industrial Plants Minimum one Alstom system delivered (gas turbine, steam turbine, generator, boiler/HRSG)

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 7

Renewables impact price Determination process in Europe

35

26

Lignite

25

Nuclear

16 15

44 41

60

Gas

37

Hardcoal

65 70

85

100

62

23

16

6000 5500 5000 4500 4000 3500 3000

15 10 5 0 MW

10000 9500 9000 8500 2500 7500 7000

75 70 65 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20

8000 0 2000 500 1500

80

1000

85 90 95

100

€/MWh

6500

23 €/MWh

00:00 - 04:00 04:00 - 08:00

26 €/MWh

08:00 - 12:00

65 €/MWh

44 €/MWh

16 €/MWh

23 €/MWh

Courtesy of RWE

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 8

Renewable capacity lowers usage of conventional portfolio

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0 1000 2000 3000 4000 5000 6000 7000 8000 9000

Dem

and

in G

W

operating hours [h/a]

base load

medium load

peak load

2050

2008*

*:schematic

Power plants at minimum load for compensation of dynamic load changes

Annual load duration curve of conventional power plant portfolio in 2008 vs. 2050

Courtesy of RWE

Utilization rates of conventional power plants are decreased Power plants must earn their money in less

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 9

Agenda

•  The changing markets for electricity and generation technology

•  The technologies for transformational change

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 10

Langage Gas Turbine Combined cycle 900MW dry cooled and looks like a supermarket

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 11

Current operation experience of a GT26 in Europe

GT26 with demonstrated low emissions over wide load range

Load and emission profile of a KA26 in Netherlands over 2 weeks

Operation 25-100% CC plant load

NOx emissions < 15 vppm

CO emissions < 80 vppm

Day 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14

January 2014

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 12

Additive manufacturing for complex parts

•  SLM gives new freedom in design •  Cost savings no tooling

•  Time savings hours not weeks

•  Improved component performance efficiency and life

Coupon to replace affected area Excellent condition as seen during validation inspection

Joining by brazing Coupon Aperture

milling

Coupon

Aperture

tapered

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 13

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1920 1940 1960 1980 2000 2020 2040

Net

Effi

cien

cy (L

HV,

%)

Year

Steam Turbine

Gas Turbine

Combined Cycle

SOFC + Gas Turbine + Steam Turbine

Efficiency is the main driver for gas

SOFC fuel cells Gas plants integration

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 14

Neurath 2 x 1100MW Ultra Supercritical Brown Coal – State of the art

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 15

>50% Project -More Efficient Steam Power Plants

- Efficiency (net) HHV

- Steam Parameter

25 - 30%

33%

Once Through Technology

3480/1005/1050 ( psi /°F/°F) 240/540/565 (bar/°C/°C)

2400/1005/1005 167/540/540

Sliding Pressure Supercritical

5400/1300/1325( psi /°F/°F) 375/700/720 (bar/°C/°C)

4000/1110/1150( psi /°F/°F) 275/600/620 (bar/°C/°C)

4000/1075/1110 ( psi /°F/°F) 275/580/600 (bar/°C/°C)

38 - 40%

T91 Adv Austenitic Materials

1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020

- Efficiency (net) HHV

- Steam Parameter

25 - 30%

33%

Once Through Technology

3480/1005/1050 ( psi /°F/°F) 240/540/565 (bar/°C/°C)

2400/1005/1005 167/540/540

Sliding Pressure Supercritical

5400/1300/1325( psi /°F/°F) 375/700/720 (bar/°C/°C)

4000/1110/1150( psi /°F/°F) 275/600/620 (bar/°C/°C)

4000/1075/1110 ( psi /°F/°F) 275/580/600 (bar/°C/°C)

38 - 40%

T91 Adv Austenitic Materials

1960 1980 2000 2020 1960 1980 2000 2020

5400/1330/1400( psi /°F/°F) 375/730/760 (bar/°C/°C)

39 - 41%

48% - 51%

50% - 53%

43% - 46%

49% - 52%

Ni - based Materials 45% - 48%

Precipitation Strengthened Ni - based Materials

5400/1330/1400( psi /°F/°F) 375/730/760 (bar/°C/°C)

39 - 41%

48% - 51%

50% - 53%

43% - 46%

49% - 52%

Ni - based Materials 45% - 48%

Precipitation Strengthened Ni - based Materials

tower tower tower tower tower tower

FGHR Aux Power

RH/RH FGHR Excess Air

Bottoming Cycle

Efficiency comes from cycle temperature and components

Today’s State-of-the-Art

USC

Future

AUSC

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 16

•  Ultra-supercritical 450 MWe

•  Will capture 2 Million t/y CO2

•  Biomass co-firing option leading to zero (or negative!) CO2 emissions

•  National Grid’s (NG) CO2 transport & offshore storage & EOR network

•  FEED by UK CCS programme

•  Selected for NER300 funding UK & EU

Location: Drax Power Station, North Yorkshire, UK

Project Promoters

Oxy-fuel Power Plant CO2 Transport & Storage

ALSTOM DRAX NATIONAL GRID BOC-Linde

Carbon Capture Demonstration Oxy-Combustion White Rose project

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 17

Scenarios 85% CO2 reduction at 2050

17

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

0.0 100.0 200.0 300.0 400.0 500.0

Rel

ativ

e le

veliz

ed c

ost o

f ele

ctric

ity (-

)

Emission intensity (gCO2/kWh)

Conventional No CCS + Storage + Renewable

2010

2020

2030

2040

2050

Blackout

•  Fuel mix with CCS offers lowest cost scenario

• Without CCS cost level will be far higher (about 50%)

• Without CCS the model provides no solution without blackouts

Conventional No CCS + Renewable

Conventional with CCS + Renewable

CCS not only reduces emissions it ENABLES cost effective integration of renewables

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 18

The role of Gas and Coal? - Summary

• Plant operators face changing market

• Portfolio of fuels, renewables and technologies for energy security

• Flexibility and energy storage to integrate intermittent renewables

•  Improved efficiency of components and whole system

• Carbon Capture and Storage for near zero emissions

www.alstom.com

© ALSTOM 2014. All rights reserved. Information contained in this document is indicative only. No representation or warranty is given or should be relied on that it is complete or correct or will apply to any particular project. This will depend on the technical and commercial circumstances. It is provided without liability and is subject to change without notice. Reproduction, use or disclosure to third parties, without express written authority, is strictly prohibited.

ASME Turbo Expo 2014 – 16/06/2014 - P 20

CCS Level

€ Cents/kWh

Fuel price assumptions: •  Imported Hardcoal 62,9 €/ton (FOB ARA) •  Gas 9,2 €/mmbtu •  Biomass 62,9€/ton •  CO2 10 €/ton

With expected capacity factors/utilization rate

50%

60% 80%

90%

25%

Region Central Europe Levelized Cost of electricity – New Power Plant

35% 60%

40%

48%

Sources: ALSTOM & IHS-EER Avg. wholesale/support tariffs in the region

Germany

Very low wholesale prices jeopardize expected profitability of New Power Plants Gas suffers from high fuel price (high marginal costs)

Germany

27%

11%

Germany

80%

CCS Amine Partial Capture

W. Battery Storage

W. Battery Storage