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EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 1
The role of Energy Storage in the future development of photovoltaic power
Winfried Hoffmann, EPIA presidentRay Kubis, President EUROBAT
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 2
The role of Energy Storage in the future development of photovoltaic power
Winfried Hoffmann
Chief Technology Officer (CTO), Solar Business Group of Applied MaterialsPresident of the European Photovoltaic Industry Association (EPIA)
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 3
• Founded in 1985
• 165 Members, representing the whole Value Chain: Silicon feedstock, ingots & wafers, cells, modules, inverters & Bos, Systems Integrators.
• Budget 2008: 3,5 M€
• Secretariat in Brussels: 14 staff
• 8 Board members elected for 4 years
• 2 Years presidency: – 2006-2008 Dr. Winfried Hoffmann (DE)
– 2008-2010 Mr Ernesto Macias (SP)
• Member of EREC• Renewable Energy House
EPIA in short
EPIA represents 95% of the photovoltaic European industry, and 80% of the Global photovoltaic industry
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 4
ADEME (FR), Apollon Solar (FR), APREN (PT), ASIF (ES), Assosolare (IT), BSW (DE), CRES (GR), Dexia (FR), ECN (NL), EDF (FR), Enerplan (FR), Fraunhofer (DE), GIFI (IT), Helapco (GR), Holland Solar (NL), IM2 Systems (ES), IMEC (BE), INES (FR), Kosolco (DE), PV Cycle (BE), SEMI (US), SER (FR), SMBC (UK), Solar Promotion (DE), TNC (CH), Trama (ES), Yole (FR), Swissolar (CH)
Associate Members (28)
3S Swiss Solar Systems (CH), Acciona Solar (ES), Carmanah (UK), City Solar (DE), Conergy (DE), Ecostream (NL), Ecotecnia (ES), Enfinity (BE), ESI (DE), Gaz de France (FR), Goldbeck Solar (DE), GP Solar (DE), IBC Solar (DE), IB Vogt (DE), Intrakat (GR), IT Power (UK), M+W Zander (DE), NAPS Systems (FI), NaRec Development Services (UK), Phönix SonnenStrom (DE), Saft Power Systems (FR), Solar Technologies (UAE),Solar Ventures (IT), Solar Electric (FR), Solaria Energia (ES), Tenesol (FR), Upsolar (CH), Wager & Co Solartechnik (DE), WIP (DE)
Aleo Solar (DE), Adept Technology (DE), AES Solar Energy BV (NL), AGC Flat Glass (BE), Applied Materials (DE), Atersa (NL), Arcelor (LU), Astra (KY), August Krempel (DE), Baoding Yingli (CN), Bangkok Solar (TAI), Belval (CH), Bisol (SI), BP Solar (ES), Canadian Solar Inc. (CA) Centrosolar (DE), Centrotherm (DE), China Sunergy (CN), Danfoss Solar Inverters (DK), DC Chemicals (DE), Dow Corning Europe (BE), DuPont (FR), Dyesol (UK), Edisun Power (CH), Elettronica Santerno (IT), Engcotec (DE), Elkem Solar (NW), eMat Technology (US), Energy Solutions (BG), Enersys (UK), EniPower (IT), EPV Solar (US), ErSol Solar Energy (DE), Evergreen Solar (DE), EverQ (DE), First Solar (DE), Fronius (AU),GE Solar (US), Guardian (US), Helianthos (NL), Heraeus Holding (DE), Hydro (NW), Isofoton (ES), Isovolta (AU), KACO Gerätetechnik (DE), Konarka (US), KPE (KR), Kyocera (DE), Leybold Optics (DE), Meyer + Burger (CH), Martifer (PT), Mistubishi Electric Europe (DE), Mondragon Assembly (ES), Multi-Contact (CH), OC Oerlikon Balzers Ltd. (LS), Optisolar Inc. (US), NPC Europe (DE), NPO QuintTech (RU), Photovoltech (BE), Photowatt Internatioal (FR), Pillar (UA), Piritium S.A. (GR), Podolsky Chemical (RU),PV Silicon (DE), Q-Cells (DE), REC Scanwafer (NW), RENA Sondermachinen (DE), Renergies (IT), Saft (FR), Saint Gobain (FR), Samsung Deutschland (DE), Sanyo Component Europe (DE), Schott Solar (DE), Scheuten Solar (NL), Sharp Solar Systems (DE), SGL Carbon (DE), Siemens (DE), Silcio S.A. (GR), SHV (NL), Singulus Technologies (DE), Solar Cells Hellas (GR), Solaire Direct (FR), Solar Energy (RU), Solon AG (DE), Solsonica (IT), SMA Technologie (DE), Solar Century (UK), Solar Plus (PT), Solar World (DE), SolFocus (US), Solland Sollar Energy (NL), Solvay Solexis (BE), Sputnik Engineering (CH), Stangl Semiconductor Equipment (DE), Sunpower (US), Suntech Power (CN), Sunways (DE), Systaic (DE),Topsil (DK), Total (FR),Trina Solar (ES), Vesuvius (FR), Wacker-Chemie (DE), VON ARDENNE (DE), Umicore (BE), United Solar Ovonic Europe (DE), Würth Solar (DE)
Full Members (29)Full Members (107)
Systems, Consulting, R&D (57)Components manufacturers (107)
Total Turnover of EPIA members (2007): ~14.000 M€
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 6
The challenge
Source: German Advisory Council on Global Change, 2003, www.wbgu.de
oilcoalgas
nuclear powerhydroelectricitybiomasse (traditional)biomasse (advanced)
solar power (PV and solar thermal generation)
solar thermal (heat only)other renewablesgeothermal
wind
year2000 2020 2040
200
600
1000
1400
2100
EJ/a
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 8
Future Growth of the Global PV SolarElectricity Market in GWp and bn€ turnover
1
10
100
1.000
2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040
year
PV P
ower
inst
alle
d, G
Wp/
a
1
10
100
1.000
10.000
Mar
ket,
billi
on €
/a
35%
10%
25%
40%
30%
5%
module levelrange depending onexperience factor (15% - 18%)20%
15%
fab-invest level (decrease: ~10% every 5 years)upper bound: c-Si, full production chainlower bound: thin film
ref: W. Hoffmann personal estimates
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 9
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2010 2020 2030
RoW Off-GridRoW On-GridUSAJapanEU
Development of the Various Market Segments (relative)
Yearly installed PV power (GWp)
1.6 2.3 60 3007
Ref: W. Hoffmann, personal estimates
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 10
Grid Parity
Ref: W. Hoffmann, personal estimates, 1999
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 11
History
1
10
100
1 10 100 1000 10000MWp accumulated
$/W
p m
odul
e pr
ice
20% price decrease by doubling cumulative volume
0,1
1,0
10,0
1 10 100 1.000 10.000
GW accumulated
$/W
mod
ule
pric
e
experience factor
15%
18%
1.8 GW/yr2005
340 GW/yr2030 F
6 GW/yr2010 F
70 GW/yr2020 F
Forecast
10-5
10-4
10-3
10-2
10-1
1
10
100
105 107 109 1011 1013 1015 1017 1019
‘00‘95‘90‘85‘80‘75‘70‘65
~28% reduction for doubling of total volume
DR
AM C
ents
/bit
Cumulative Bits
VLSI/DRAM
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 12
20/30 6/20+ Energy Storage 3/10
PV electricity cost
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 13
Impact of high levels of PV integration in Germany
Source: ISET, 23. Symposium PV Solarenergie, Bad Staffelstein, March 5th 2008
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 14
With Energy StorageWith Energy Storage
EUROBAT
Ray Kubis, President EUROBATPresident EnerSys Europe
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 15
Who is Eurobat?
• EUROBAT represents the interests of the leading industrial battery manufacturers, providing expert information to consumers, political decision-makers, and the media
• Have worked for more than 20 years with European Commission, Parliament and Council on developing workable battery legislation such as REACH and RoHS
• EUROBAT structure – General Assembly of members to shape the future of of the industry– Board of Eurobat is governed by 10 member representatives from the industry– Committees: Enviro (CEM); R&D (RTD); Automotive (ABC); Industrial (IBC) – Permanent Secretariat in Brussels run by highly qualified and dedicated staff
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 16
Eurobat Mission
To ensure that the ideal conditions are created for the responsible development of the automotive and
industrial battery industry in Europe. Acting in the common interests of all of its members Eurobat aims to sustain a competitive industry in an increasingly complex policy and legislative climate.
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 18
PV and Energy Storage
Purpose: Make PV energy available when it is needed(« dispatchable »)independent from time of production
• Off grid: – Principle - Energy Storage designed to provide hours, days or weeks of
autonomy– Challenge - PV to become a reliable, sustainable alternative to grid
electrification schemes in non-electrified areas. • On grid:
– Principle - Local storage of excess PV energy until it is needed– Challenge – Performance, efficiency and cost
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 19
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2006 2007 2010 2020 2030
RoW Off-GridRoW On-GridUSAJapanEU
On / Off Grid market evolution
• Grid connected solar power– Today mainly without storage– 1% on grid in 2010– 30% on grid 2030
• Energy storage / batteries are generally included in Off Grid solutions:
– Industrial solutions are well established
– Economically viable solutions are critical for the growth in Off-Grid demand
Yearly Installed PV Power
1.6GW 2.3GW 7GW 60GW 300GW
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 20
A A modestmodest penetrationpenetration ofof EnergyEnergy Storage Storage intointo PV PV willwill createcreate a a significantsignificant marketmarket
EPIA projectionshigh: « Policy Driven scenario »low : « Pessimistic scenario »
Market SplitOn-grid 95% today
70% in 2030
Energy Storage- 50% of off-grid systems- 1% of on-grid systems 2010 - 30% of on-grid systems 2030
Market
Market Potential off-grid energy storage
Market Potential on-grid energy storage
Market for PV Energy Storage
0
10 000
20 000
30 000
40 000
50 000
2010 2015 2020 2030M
Wh
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 21
Stretching the Sun
For grid connected, energy storage can stretch the sun’s contribution to peak loads – extending the payoff of solar collectors –allowing for fewer peak power plants
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 22
0
200
400
600
800
1000
1200
1400
1600
1:15
2:15
3:15
4:15
5:15
6:15
7:15
8:15
9:15
10:1
5
11:1
5
12:1
5
13:1
5
14:1
5
15:1
5
16:1
5
17:1
5
18:1
5
19:1
5
20:1
5
21:1
5
22:1
5
23:1
5
0:15
On Grid Energy Storage
Household 24h consumption (blue) PV production (pink)
PV noon excess
PV direct use
å
ç
1 + 2 = total PV generation
Store « noon excess » until needed:- In general evening peak around
7pm- cover household local
consumption in evening / night - possibly inject surplus into grid
when needed (upon demand)
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 23
All 3 major battery chemistries can contribute
Proven low cost, production and recycling
Lead based(Pb)
Proven off-shore & harsh environments. Long life
Nickel based(Ni)
Highest energy density, smaller, lighterLithium based(Li)
EPIA-EUROBAT Press conference, Intersolar, 12 June 2008 24
Conclusion
• The industry can meet the challenge• Suitable storage technologies exist• System integration • Global roadmap• Cost of PV + Storage will be competitive