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NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
The Role of Energy Efficiency The Role of Energy Efficiency in Could (and Should) Play in Montana’s in Could (and Should) Play in Montana’s FutureFuture
Insights from the 5Insights from the 5thth NorthwestNorthwest Power Power and Conservation Planand Conservation Plan
Tom EckmanTom EckmanManager, Conservation ResourcesManager, Conservation Resources
Northwest Power and Conservation CouncilNorthwest Power and Conservation CouncilPresented October 18, 2005Presented October 18, 2005
Montana Energy Futures ConferenceMontana Energy Futures Conference
slide 2Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
What You’re About To HearWhat You’re About To Hear
nn Energy Efficiency in the Region’s Current Energy Efficiency in the Region’s Current
Resource MixResource Mix
nn Regional Efficiency GoalsRegional Efficiency Goals
–– What These Might Mean for MontanaWhat These Might Mean for Montana
nn What’s Behind the GoalsWhat’s Behind the Goals
nn The Challenges AheadThe Challenges Ahead
slide 3Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
PNW Energy Efficiency AchievementsPNW Energy Efficiency Achievements1978 1978 -- 20042004
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
BPA and Utility Programs Alliance ProgramsState Codes Federal Standards
Since 1978 Utility & BPA Since 1978 Utility & BPA Programs, Energy Codes & Programs, Energy Codes & Federal Efficiency Standards Have Federal Efficiency Standards Have Produced Nearly 3000 aMW of Produced Nearly 3000 aMW of Savings.Savings.
slide 4Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
So What’s 3000 aMW?So What’s 3000 aMW?
nn It was enough electricity to serve the It was enough electricity to serve the entireentirestate of Montana, state of Montana, plusplus 60% of Idaho in 200460% of Idaho in 2004
-- OR OR ––
nn It was enough electricity to serve the It was enough electricity to serve the entireentirestate of Idaho state of Idaho plusplus Western Montana in 2004Western Montana in 2004
nn It Saved the Region’s Consumers Nearly It Saved the Region’s Consumers Nearly $1.25 billion$1.25 billion in 2004in 2004
slide 5Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Energy Efficiency Resources Energy Efficiency Resources Significantly Reduced Projected PNW Significantly Reduced Projected PNW
Electricity SalesElectricity Sales
14,000
16,000
18,000
20,000
22,000
24,000
1980 1985 1990 1995 2000
Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts
Medium High ForecastMedium LowMedium High Minus ConservationActual
slide 6Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40% of Energy Efficiency Met Nearly 40% of PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth PNW Regional Firm Sales Growth
Between 1980 Between 1980 -- 20032003
61%
39%
Generation Conservation
slide 7Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Regional Utility Conservation Acquisitions Have Regional Utility Conservation Acquisitions Have Helped Balance Loads & ResourcesHelped Balance Loads & Resources
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
1978 1982 1986 1990 1994 1998 2002
Con
serv
atio
n A
cquis
itio
ns
(aM
W)
Response to West Coast
Energy CrisisResponse to NW
Recession
Response to “Restructuring
Discussions”
Creating Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the PNW’s Energy Efficiency InCreating Mr. Toad’s Wild Ride for the PNW’s Energy Efficiency Industrydustry
slide 8Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been A BARGAIN!A BARGAIN!
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
$90
$100
May-9
6
Nov-
96
May-9
7
Nov-
97
May-9
8
Nov-
98
May-9
9
Nov-
99
May-0
0
Nov-
00
May-0
1
Nov-
01
May-0
2
Nov-
02
May-0
3
Nov-
03
May-0
4
Nov-
04
May-0
5
Whol
esa
le E
lect
rici
ty P
rice
(2000$/M
WH
)
Levelized Cost of EfficiencyAcquisitionsWholesale Market Price
slide 9Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
So Much for the Past, So Much for the Past, What’s AheadWhat’s Ahead
55thth Plan Relies on Conservation and Renewable Plan Relies on Conservation and Renewable
Resources to of Meet Load GrowthResources to of Meet Load Growth**
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
4000
4500
5000
2004 2008 2012 2016 2020 2024
Year
Inst
alle
d C
apaci
ty (
MW
or
aM
W)
Conservation (aMW) Wind (MW) DR (MW)SCGTurbine (MW) CCGTurbine (MW) Coal (ICG) (MW)
**Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation Actual future conditions (gas prices, CO2 control, conservation accomplishments) accomplishments) will change resource development schedulewill change resource development schedule
slide 11Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
CostCost--Effective and Achievable Effective and Achievable Conservation Should Meet Over 45% of Conservation Should Meet Over 45% of
PNW Load Growth from 2005PNW Load Growth from 2005--2025*2025*
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
Cost-Effective Potential(aMW in 2025)
Agricultural Sector - 80 aMW
Non-DSI Industrial Sector - 350 aMW
Commercial Sector Non-Building Measures - 420 aMW
HVAC, Envelope & Refrigeration - 375 aMW
New Commercial Building Lighting - 220 aMW
Existing Commercial Buildings Lighting - 130 aMW
Residential Space Conditioning - 240 aMW
Residential Lighting - 530 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 325 aMW
Residential Appliances - 140 aMW
*Medium Load Forecast *Medium Load Forecast Loads & Market PricesLoads & Market Prices
slide 12Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Regional NearRegional Near--Term Conservation Term Conservation Targets (2005Targets (2005--2009) = 700 aMW2009) = 700 aMW
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
140
160
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Res
ourc
e (a
MW
)
Residential - Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Lost Opportunity
Irrigated Agriculture - Non LostOpportunity
Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity
Residential - Non Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity
slide 13Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana’s Share of NearMontana’s Share of Near--Term Term Conservation Targets (2005Conservation Targets (2005--2009) 2009)
= 57 aMW= 57 aMW
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009
Res
ourc
e (a
MW
)
Residential - Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Lost Opportunity
Irrigated Agriculture - Non LostOpportunity
Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity
Residential - Non Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
Why Should We?Why Should We?
What’s Behind the 5What’s Behind the 5thth Plan’s Plan’s Conservation Targets?Conservation Targets?
PNW Portfolio Planning PNW Portfolio Planning –– Scenario Analysis on SteroidsScenario Analysis on Steroids
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
0.0% 1.0% 2.0% 3.0% 4.0% 5.0%
Annual Load Growth
Pro
babilit
y (
%)
0%2%4%6%
8%
10%12%14%16%
18%
0% 1% 2% 3% 4% 5%
Real Natural Gas Escalation Rate%)
Pro
bab
ilit
y (
%)
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
3.27% 3.80% 3.85% 3.93% 2.50%
Nominal Annual Electricity Price Escalation Rate
Pro
babilit
y (
%)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
98
467
705
842
1,069
1,19
1
1,28
3
1,33
5
1,35
3
1,37
3
1,65
0
Resource Potential
Leveli
zed
Co
st
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
2005
2007
2009
2011
2013
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
2025
Carbon Tax Implementation Date
Pro
bab
ilty
(%
)
0
5000
10000
15000
20000
25000
1925 1930 1935 1940 1945 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975
Hydrosytem Year
Ca
pacit
y (
MW
)
0%2%4%6%8%
10%12%14%16%18%20%
Pro
ba
bilit
y
$0 $6 $12 $18 $24 $30 $36
Carbon Tax
Frequency Chart
Dollars
Mean = $689.000
.011
.022
.032
.043
0
10.75
21.5
32.25
43
($3,509) ($1,131) $1,247 $3,625 $6,003
1,000 Trials 1,000 Displayed
Portfolio Portfolio Analysis Analysis ModelModel
$35,500
$36,000
$36,500
$37,000
$37,500
$23,500 $24,000 $24,500 $25,000
NPV System Risk (2004$Millions)
NP
V S
yste
m C
ost
(2004
$M
illio
ns)
Efficient FrontierEfficient Frontier
NPV System Cost
slide 16Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Plans Along the Efficient Frontier Permit Plans Along the Efficient Frontier Permit TradeTrade--Offs of Costs Against RiskOffs of Costs Against Risk
$35,500
$36,000
$36,500
$37,000
$37,500
$23,600 $23,800 $24,000 $24,200 $24,400 $24,600
NPV System Cost (Millions)
NPV
Sys
tem
Ris
k (M
illio
ns)
Least Risk
Least Cost
slide 17Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Three Conservation Options TestedThree Conservation Options Tested
nn Option 1Option 1: : AcceleratedAccelerated –– Similar to the “best Similar to the “best performance” over the last 20 yearsperformance” over the last 20 years–– NonNon--lost opportunity limited to 120 aMW/yearlost opportunity limited to 120 aMW/year–– RampRamp--up lostup lost--opportunity to 85% by 2017opportunity to 85% by 2017
nn Option 2Option 2: : SustainedSustained -- Similar to typical rates over Similar to typical rates over last 20 yearslast 20 years–– NonNon--lost opportunity limited to 80 aMW/yearlost opportunity limited to 80 aMW/year–– RampRamp--up lostup lost--opportunity to 85% by 2017opportunity to 85% by 2017
nn Option 3Option 3: : Status QuoStatus Quo -- Similar to lowest rates over Similar to lowest rates over last 20 yearslast 20 years–– NonNon--lost opportunity limited to 40 aMW/yearlost opportunity limited to 40 aMW/year–– RampRamp--up lostup lost--opportunity to 85% penetration by 2025opportunity to 85% penetration by 2025
slide 18Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Average Annual Conservation Average Annual Conservation Development for Alternative Levels of Development for Alternative Levels of
Deployment TestedDeployment Tested
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
2005 2010 2015 2020Year
Sav
ings
(aM
W)
Option 3 - Status QuoOption 2 - SustainedOption 1 - Accelerated
slide 19Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Accelerating Conservation Accelerating Conservation Development Reduces Cost & RiskDevelopment Reduces Cost & Risk
$20
$22
$24
$26
$28
$30
$32
$34
$36
$38
$40
Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo
NPV (
bill
ion 2
004$)
NPV System Cost NPV System Risk
slide 20Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
WECC Carbon Dioxide Emissions WECC Carbon Dioxide Emissions Reductions for Alternative Reductions for Alternative
Conservation TargetsConservation Targets
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
Mill
ion T
ons
over
20 y
ears
Option 1 - Accelerated Option 2 - Sustained Option 3 - Status Quo
slide 21Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Why Energy Efficiency Reduces NPV Why Energy Efficiency Reduces NPV System Cost and RiskSystem Cost and Risk
nn It’s A Cheap (avg. 2.4 cents/kWh TOTAL It’s A Cheap (avg. 2.4 cents/kWh TOTAL RESOURCE COST) Hedge Against Market RESOURCE COST) Hedge Against Market Price SpikesPrice Spikes
nn It has value even when market prices are It has value even when market prices are low low
nn It’s Not Subject to Fuel Price RiskIt’s Not Subject to Fuel Price Risknn It’s Not Subject to Carbon Control RiskIt’s Not Subject to Carbon Control Risknn It’s Significant Enough In Size to Delay It’s Significant Enough In Size to Delay
“build decisions” on generation“build decisions” on generation
slide 22Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
The Plan’s Targets Are A The Plan’s Targets Are A Floor, Not a CeilingFloor, Not a Ceiling
When we took the “ramp rate” constraints offthe portfolio model it developed
1500 aMW1500 aMWof Conservation in 2005
slide 24Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Sources of Savings by SectorSources of Savings by Sector
Industrial 350 aMW
12%
Irrigation 80 aMW3%
Commercial 1105 aMW
39%
Residential 1340 aMW
46%
slide 25Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Residential Sector Target = 1340 aMWResidential Sector Target = 1340 aMW
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts
Residential Space Conditioning - 245aMW
Residential Lighting - 630 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 285 aMW
Residential Appliances - 140 aMW
slide 26Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Commercial Sector Target = 1105 aMWCommercial Sector Target = 1105 aMW
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts
Infrastructure
Equipment
Envelope
Lighting
HVAC
slide 27Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Irrigated Agriculture Sector Target = Irrigated Agriculture Sector Target = 80 aMW80 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts
Replace Pumps, Nozzles &Gaskets
Replace Nozzles & Gaskets
Convert Center Pivots fromMedium to Low Pressure
Convert Center Pivots from Highto Low Pressure
slide 28Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Industrial Sector Target = Industrial Sector Target = 350 350 aMWaMW
nn Estimate of 5% of 2025 forecast loadsEstimate of 5% of 2025 forecast loadsnn 350 aMW at 1.7 cents per kWh350 aMW at 1.7 cents per kWhnn Process controls, drive systems, lighting, Process controls, drive systems, lighting,
refrigeration, compressed air, etcrefrigeration, compressed air, etcnn Potential is a function of the ongoing Potential is a function of the ongoing
changes in region’s industrial mixchanges in region’s industrial mix
slide 30Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Plan Plan Conservation Action ItemsConservation Action Items
nn Ramp up “Lost Opportunity” conservationRamp up “Lost Opportunity” conservation»» Goal => 85% penetration in 12 years Goal => 85% penetration in 12 years »» 10 to 30 MWa/year 2005 through 200910 to 30 MWa/year 2005 through 2009
nn Accelerate the acquisition of “NonAccelerate the acquisition of “Non--Lost Lost Opportunity” resourcesOpportunity” resources
»» Return to acquisition levels of early 1990’sReturn to acquisition levels of early 1990’s»» Target 120 MWa/year next five yearsTarget 120 MWa/year next five years
nn Employ a mix of mechanismsEmploy a mix of mechanisms»» Local acquisition programs (utility, SBC Administrator & BPA Local acquisition programs (utility, SBC Administrator & BPA
programs)programs)»» Regional acquisition programs and coordinationRegional acquisition programs and coordination»» Market transformation venturesMarket transformation ventures
slide 31Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
The Total Resource Acquisition Cost* of The Total Resource Acquisition Cost* of 55thth Plan’s Conservation TargetsPlan’s Conservation Targets
2005 2005 –– 2009 = $1.64 billion2009 = $1.64 billion
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
Tota
l Reso
urc
e Cost
s(M
illio
ns
2000$)
Residential - Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Lost Opportunity
Irrigated Agriculture - Non LostOpportunity
Industrial - Non Lost Opportunity
Residential - Non Lost Opportunity
Commercial - Non Lost Opportunity
*Incremental capital costs to install measure plus program administration costs estimated at 20% of capital.
slide 32Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Meeting the Plan’s Efficiency Targets Will Meeting the Plan’s Efficiency Targets Will Likely Require Increased Regional InvestmentsLikely Require Increased Regional Investments
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Aver
age 19
91-0
4
Aver
age 20
01-2
00420
0520
09Utilit
y I
nvest
ments
(m
illio
n 2
000$)
slide 33Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Although, The Share of Utility Although, The Share of Utility Revenues Required is ModestRevenues Required is Modest
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1991
199219
9319
9419
9519
9619
9719
9819
9920
0020
0120
0220
0320
04
Aver
age 19
91-0
4
Aver
age 20
01-2
00420
0520
09Shar
e of
Ret
ail Rev
enues
(%
)
Regional Average Revenues/kWh will need to increase by $0.000006/kWh
slide 34Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Utility* Efficiency Acquisition Plans for 2005 Are Utility* Efficiency Acquisition Plans for 2005 Are Close to 5Close to 5thth Plan TargetsPlan Targets
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
2005 5th Plan Target 2005 Utility Acquistion Plan
Co
nserv
ati
on
Levels
(M
Wa)
*Targets for 15 Largest PNW Utilities. These utilities represent approximately 80% of regional load.
slide 35Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Most IOU Efficiency Plans are Close Most IOU Efficiency Plans are Close to 5to 5thth Plan’s TargetsPlan’s Targets
0
5
10
15
20
25
Pacif
iCor
p (O
R,WA,
ID)
Puge
t Sou
nd Ene
rgy
Portl
and
Gener
al
Idah
o Po
wer
Avist
a Ut
ilities
North
weste
rn E
nerg
y
Conse
rvation L
evels
(M
Wa)
Plan Targets
Utility Plans
slide 36Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
However, Several Large Public Utility Efficiency However, Several Large Public Utility Efficiency
Plans Are Well Below 5Plans Are Well Below 5thth Plan TargetsPlan Targets
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
Seat
tle C
ity Light
Snoh
omish
PUD
Taco
ma Po
wer
Cowlit
z PU
D
Clar
k PU
D
EWEB
Grant
PUD
Bent
on PUD
Flathe
ad R
EA
Con
serv
ation L
evels
(M
Wa)
Plan Targets
Utility Plans
slide 37Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
SummarySummary
nn The 5th Plan’s Goal IsThe 5th Plan’s Goal Is To Make The To Make The InefficientInefficient Use of Electricity . . .Use of Electricity . . .–– ImmoralImmoral–– IllegalIllegal–– UnprofitableUnprofitable
If We Fail Both If We Fail Both CostsCosts and and Risk Risk Will Be HigherWill Be Higher
slide 39Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana Electric Sales Montana Electric Sales 1,490 aMW in 2004 1,490 aMW in 2004
Industrial625 aMW
42%
Commercial440 aMW
30%
Residential425 aMW
28%
Source: US DOE/EIA
slide 40Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana Electricity Sales Represent Montana Electricity Sales Represent 8% of Regional Sales Across All 8% of Regional Sales Across All
SectorsSectors
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
WA OR ID MT
Shar
e of
Reg
ional
Sal
es
ResidentialCommerciaIndustrialTotal
slide 41Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Residential Sector Residential Sector ResultsResults
What’s Left To Do At What’s Left To Do At Home?Home?
65 Average MW
slide 42Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana Has The Region’s Lowest Montana Has The Region’s Lowest Market Shares of Electric Water and Market Shares of Electric Water and
Space HeatingSpace Heating
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
Mar
ket
Sat
ura
tion
ID MT OR WA Region
Electric Water Heater Electric Heating Central Air Conditioning
slide 43Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana’s Average Electricity Montana’s Average Electricity Use/Residential Customer Is The Use/Residential Customer Is The
Lowest in the RegionLowest in the Region
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
Ave
rage
Annual
Use
/Cust
omer
(k
Wh)
WA OR ID MT Region
slide 44Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
But Residential Customer Use Has Not But Residential Customer Use Has Not Declined Since 1990, While Use in Other Declined Since 1990, While Use in Other
PNW States HasPNW States Has
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
12000
14000
16000
1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004
Ave
rage
Annual
Use
/Cust
om
er (
kWh)
ID MT OR WA
slide 45Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana’s Housing Stock is Montana’s Housing Stock is Predominantly Single Family and Predominantly Single Family and
Manufactured HomesManufactured Homes
Multifamily3%
Manufactured Home17%
Single Family80%
slide 46Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Regional Residential Sector CostRegional Residential Sector Cost--Effective & Realistically Achievable Effective & Realistically Achievable Regional Potential = 1340 aMWRegional Potential = 1340 aMW
0
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s
Residential Space Conditioning - 245aMW
Residential Lighting - 630 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 285 aMW
Residential Appliances - 140 aMW
slide 47Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana Residential Sector CostMontana Residential Sector Cost--Effective & Realistically Achievable Effective & Realistically Achievable
Regional Potential = 65 aMWRegional Potential = 65 aMW
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Avera
ge M
eg
aw
att
s Residential Space Conditioning - 4 aMW
Residential Lighting - 40 aMW
Residential Water Heating - 10 aMW
Residential Appliances - 11 aMW
slide 48Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Regional Residential Sector Realistically Regional Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for AppliancesAchievable Potential for Appliances
Clothes Washers - 135
aMW75%
Dishwashers - 10 aMW
6%
Refrigerators - 35 aMW
19%
slide 49Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana Residential Sector Achievable Montana Residential Sector Achievable Conservation Resource Potential for AppliancesConservation Resource Potential for Appliances
Energy Star Dishwashers
1 MW9%
Energy Star Refrigerators
2 aMW18%
Energy Star Clothes Washers8 aMW73%
slide 50Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Regional Residential Sector Realistically Regional Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Water HeatingAchievable Potential for Water Heating
Efficient Tanks29%
95 aMWWaste Water
Heat Recovery4%
15 aMW
Heat Pump Water Heaters
67%225 aMW
slide 51Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana Residential Sector Conservation Montana Residential Sector Conservation Resource Potential for Water HeatingResource Potential for Water Heating
High Efficiency Water Heaters
3 aMW27%
Waste Water Heat Recovery
1 aMW9%
Heat Pump Water Heaters
7 aMW64%
slide 52Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Regional Residential Sector Realistically Regional Residential Sector Realistically Achievable Potential for Space Achievable Potential for Space
ConditioningConditioningNew Construction -
Shell Measures 40 aMW
16%
Duct Sealing & System
Commissioning & Controls 15 aMW
6%
Weatherization60 aMW
24%
Heat Pump Upgrades 55 aMW
22%
Heat Pump Conversions
75 aMW32%
slide 53Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana Residential Sector Conservation Montana Residential Sector Conservation Resource Potential for Space ConditioningResource Potential for Space Conditioning
Heat Pump Upgrades0.9 aMW
23%
Duct Sealing & System
Commissioning & Controls0.3 aMW
7%
Weatherization0.9 aMW
24%
Heat Pump Conversions
1.2 aMW30%
New Construction - Shell Measures
0.6 aMW16%
slide 54Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Commercial Sector Commercial Sector ResultsResults
What’s Left To Do At the What’s Left To Do At the Office?Office?
95 Average MW
slide 55Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Regional NonRegional Non--Building Resource Building Resource Potential = 430 aMWPotential = 430 aMW
0
2040
6080
100
120140
160Sew
age
Tre
atm
emt
Wat
erTre
atm
ent
LED
Tra
ffic
Sig
nal
s
Net
wor
ked
PCM
anag
emen
t
Pack
aged
Ref
riger
atio
n
Pow
erSupplie
s
LED
Exi
tSig
ns
Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts
slide 56Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Montana NonMontana Non--Building Resource Building Resource Potential = 30 aMWPotential = 30 aMW
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Sew
age
Tre
atm
emt
Wat
erTre
atm
ent
LED
Tra
ffic
Sig
nal
s
Net
wor
ked
PCM
anag
emen
t
Pack
aged
Ref
riger
atio
n
Pow
erSupplie
s
LED
Exi
tSig
ns
Ave
rage
Meg
awat
ts
slide 57Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
New and Replacement Retrofit
MW
ain
202
5
Equipment
Refrigeration
Envelope
Lighting
HVAC
CostCost--Effective Commercial Conservation Potential Effective Commercial Conservation Potential in 2025 For Building Lighting, HVAC & Equipmentin 2025 For Building Lighting, HVAC & Equipment--
Regional = 950 aMW / Montana = 65 aMWRegional = 950 aMW / Montana = 65 aMW
NorthwestPower andConservation
Council
What’s Left To Do Out on the What’s Left To Do Out on the Farm?Farm?
Irrigated Agriculture Sector Irrigated Agriculture Sector ResultsResults
>1 Average MW
slide 59Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Industrial Sector AssessmentIndustrial Sector Assessment
nn Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 Fourth Plan’s Estimate = 8% savings (670 aMW)aMW)
nn Fifth Plan is lower due to changing (less Fifth Plan is lower due to changing (less electrically intensive) industrial mix ) = 5% electrically intensive) industrial mix ) = 5% of 2025 sector loadsof 2025 sector loads
nn Montana potential @ 5% of 2004 salesMontana potential @ 5% of 2004 sales= 30 aMW= 30 aMW
slide 60Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
While PNW Annual Utility System While PNW Annual Utility System Investments in Energy Efficiency Have Declined Since Investments in Energy Efficiency Have Declined Since
the Early 1990’sthe Early 1990’s
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Conse
rvation I
nvest
ments
(m
illio
n 2
000$)
slide 61Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Total PNW Annual Energy Efficiency Total PNW Annual Energy Efficiency Achievements Have Been Growing, Largely Due Achievements Have Been Growing, Largely Due To The Impact of Energy Codes and StandardsTo The Impact of Energy Codes and Standards
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
1978
1980
1982
1984
1986
1988
1990
1992
1994
1996
1998
2000
2002
2004
Con
serv
atio
n A
cquis
itio
ns
(aM
W) Federal Standards
State Codes
Alliance Programs
slide 62Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
PNW Utilities Now Invests Less Than 2% of PNW Utilities Now Invests Less Than 2% of Their Retail Sales Revenues in Energy Their Retail Sales Revenues in Energy
EfficiencyEfficiency
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%
6.0%
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Conse
rvation I
nvest
ments
(m
illio
n 2
000$)
slide 63Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Fortunately . . . The “First Year” Cost ($/aMW) of Fortunately . . . The “First Year” Cost ($/aMW) of Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has DeclinedUtility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Declined
$0.00
$0.50
$1.00
$1.50
$2.00
$2.50
$3.00
$3.50
$4.00
$4.50
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Conse
rvation C
ost
/aM
W (
mill
ion 2
000$)
slide 64Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
PNW Utilities Have Gotten More Efficient at Acquiring PNW Utilities Have Gotten More Efficient at Acquiring Energy Efficiency Energy Efficiency -- Cost Are Now Below $15 MWHCost Are Now Below $15 MWH
$0
$5
$10
$15
$20
$25
$30
$35
$40
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004
Leveliz
ed C
onse
rvation C
ost
(m
illio
n/M
Wh 2
000$)
slide 65Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Cumulative 1978 Cumulative 1978 -- 2004 Efficiency 2004 Efficiency Achievements by SourceAchievements by Source
Alliance Programs185 aMW
6%
State Codes560 aMW
19%
Federal Standards545 aMW
19%
BPA and Utility Programs1635 aMW
56%
slide 66Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
The Share of PNW Retail Electricity Sales The Share of PNW Retail Electricity Sales Revenues Invested In Energy Efficiency Has Revenues Invested In Energy Efficiency Has
Declined Since The Early 1990’sDeclined Since The Early 1990’s
$0.0$1.0$2.0$3.0$4.0$5.0$6.0$7.0$8.0$9.0
$10.0
1991
1992
1993
1994
1995
1996
1997
1998
1999
2000
2001
2002
2003
2004
Tot
al R
etail
Ele
ctrici
ty S
ales
Rev
enue
(bill
ion 2
000$)
Revenues Invested In EfficiencyRevenues Dedicated to Other Costs
slide 67Northwest
Power andConservation
Council
Utility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been CostUtility Acquired Energy Efficiency Has Been Cost--Competitive with Market PurchasesCompetitive with Market Purchases
$0
$100
$200
$300
$400
$500
$600
May-9
6
Nov-
96
May-9
7
Nov-
97
May-9
8
Nov-
98
May-9
9
Nov-
99
May-0
0
Nov-
00
May-0
1
Nov-
01
May-0
2
Nov-
02
May-0
3
Nov-
03
May-0
4
Nov-
04
May-0
5
Whol
esa
le E
lect
rici
ty P
rice
(2000$/M
WH
)
Wholesale Market Price
Levelized Cost of Efficiency