The Role of Education in 21st Century Competitiveness

Dr. Jonathan A. PluckerMarch 24, 2012

1st Annual Conferencefor Innovative Education

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Center for Evaluation andEducation Policy (CEEP)

• CEEP promotes and supports rigorous program evaluation and nonpartisan policy research primarily, but not exclusively, for education, human service and non-profit organizations.

• In the area of K-12 education policy, CEEP’s mission is to help inform, influence and shape sound policy through effective, nonpartisan research and analysis.

• For more information about CEEP, go to: http://ceep.indiana.edu

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Overview

• What Does the 21st Century Hold in Store for the United States?

• How Do We Currently Compare to Other Education Systems Around the World?

• What Can We Do About It?3

THE 21ST CENTURY

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• Increasing globalization– … although not close to it yet

• Increasing levels and sophistication of technology– … for good and evil

• Return to two major superpowers• Developing countries nearing end of that process• Probably more economic equality among countries,

less within countries.• Immigration/migration patterns are changing.

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The 21st Century …

• … is clearly proving to be a brave new world where skills and talents that previously helped us achieve success need to be rethought.

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HOW DO WE STACK UP AGAINST THE COMPETITION?

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2009 R&D Spending as GDP %

Israe

l

Finlan

d

Sweden

South Korea

Japan

Denmark

Switz

erland

Taiwan U.S.

0.00%0.50%1.00%1.50%2.00%2.50%3.00%3.50%4.00%4.50%

8Source: NSF National Center for Scienceand Engineering Statistics

Includes stimulus funding

U. S R&D Expenditures, in $ Billions

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 20090

50

100

150

200

250

300

BusinessFederalOther

9Source: NSF National Center for Scienceand Engineering Statistics

Public Attitudes

• 64% believe U.S. leadership in R&D is very important• … yet only 42% believe U.S. will be the global leader

in 2020.• 70% believe science and math education will have a

major impact on the nation.

– Source: March 2012 Research!America poll of 1,005 likely voters

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It’s All About the Pipeline

• “The success of the United States in the 21st century – its wealth and welfare – will depend on the ideas and skills of its population. These have always been the Nation’s most important assets.” (p. v)

• “Despite our historical record of achievement, the United States now lags behind other nations in STEM education at the elementary and secondary levels. … On the [NAEP], less than one-third of U.S. eighth graders show proficiency in mathematics and science.” (p. v)– President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST), 2010,

Prepare and Inspire: K-12 Education in Science, Technology, Engineering and Math (STEM) for America’s Future

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2009 PISA Results, Overall RanksReading Mathematics Science

Shanghai – 1 Shanghai – 1 Shanghai – 1

South Korea – 2 Singapore – 2 Finland – 2

Finland – 3 South Korea – 4 Singapore – 4

Singapore - 5 Taiwan – 5 Japan – 5

Canada – 6 Finland – 6 South Korea – 6

Japan – 8 Japan – 9 Canada – 8

US – 17 Canada – 10 Taiwan – 12

Germany – 20 Germany – 16 Germany – 13

France – 22 France – 22 UK – 16

Taiwan – 23 UK – 28 US – 23UK – 25 US – 31 France - 27

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However …

• Asian Americans scored 541, 2nd only to Shanghai• White students scored 525, Top 10, on par with

Singapore and Canada• Hispanic students scored 466, ~40th, similar to

Lithuania and Turkey• Black students scored 441, ~45th, behind Serbia but

ahead of Bulgaria

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A Widening Excellence Gap

TIMSS may be a better international assessment on which to base policy, since it samples by grade and not age and is similar in many ways to NAEP.

Both in absolute and relative terms, it is clear the U.S. is at a huge disadvantage.

1995 1999 2003 20070

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

50

Percent Scoring at Advanced Benchmark on TIMSS Grade 8 Math

Singapore

Korea

Taiwan

Japan

England

Russia

U.S.

45%!

Not45%!

What is the Excellence Gap?

• There has been a lot of focus on minimum competency achievement gaps– the overall average gaps at low to medium levels of

performance between demographic groups• Comparatively little attention to gaps in performance among

high ability students– In a good educational system we should see both equity

AND excellence– Plenty of evidence this can happen

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Super Awesome Quote!

• Education systems that fail to develop the potential of students from every background can make claims to neither excellence nor equity, neither quality nor equality.

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Why Should We Care?

• Life prospects of students from disadvantaged backgrounds

• Equity of the Educational System– Shouldn’t there be roughly the same

percentage of high-performing students from every background?

• Is minimum competency really enough?• International Competitiveness & Pipeline Issues

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Excellence Gaps Using the NAEP

• The National Assessment of Educational Progress (NAEP) scored on a 0-500 point scale

• Roughly every two years by the U.S. Department of Education

• Performance Levels are Determined by Cut-Scores (Basic, Proficient, Advanced)

• Built on framework similar to TIMSS

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2011 NAEP Math Results

Male

Female

WhiteBlac

k

Hispan

icAsia

n

N.Amer. ELL

non-ELL Full

Reduced

Free

0

5

10

15

20

25

86

9

1 2

19

2 1

7

11

42

97

11

2 3

22

31

9

13

52

Grade 4 Grade 8

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SMALL BUT PERSISTENT GENDER GAPS LARGE, GROWING

RACIAL GAPS LARGE, PERSISTENT ELL GAPS

LARGE, GROWINGSES GAPS

2011 NAEP Reading Results

Male

Female

WhiteBlac

k

Hispan

icAsia

n

N.Amer. ELL

non-ELL Full

Reduced

Free

02468

1012141618

79

11

23

17

4

1

9

13

422

5 5

1 1

8

20

45

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Grade 4 Grade 8

22

1996

2000

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

2.93.2

5.5

6.8

7.68.2

9.0

0.1 0.2 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.9 1.10.2 0.8

1.3 1.5 1.41.9

WhiteBlackHispanic

% Advanced in Math Grade 4

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NCLB

1998 2002 2003 2005 2007 2009 20110.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

3.43.7

4.3 4.13.8 3.8

4.7

0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.7

0.7 0.60.8 0.8 0.7 0.8 1.0

3.3

3.8

5.4 5.65.1

6.1

7.8

WhiteBlack HispanicAsian

% Advanced in Reading Grade 8

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NCLB

Long-Term Trends in the Excellence Gap

• If we go back before the passage of NCLB, there isn’t much evidence that the gaps are shrinking – many have become much larger.

• In 2009 and 2011 the numbers for ELL students were especially discouraging, giving back most if not all previous gains over the last dozen years.

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NAEP Math Grade 4 Gap Trends

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1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 20090.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

FARM GapWhite-Black GapWhite-Hispanic GapELL Gap

Roughly 2-3 grade levels.

NAEP Math Grade 8 Gap Trends

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1996 2000 2003 2005 2007 20090.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

FARM GapWhite-Black GapWhite-Hispanic GapELL Gap

NAEP Reading Grade 4 Gap Trends

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1998 2000 2002 2003 2005 2007 20090.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

FARM GapWhite-Black GapWhite-Hispanic GapELL Gap

NAEP Reading Grade 8 Gap Trends

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1998 2002 2003 2005 2007 20090.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

40.0

45.0

50.0

FARM GapWhite-Black GapWhite-Hispanic GapELL Gap

Projected Trends in Reading Grade 4

19982000

20022003

20052007

20092011

20132015

20172019

20212023

20252027

20292031

20332035

20372039

20412043

20452047

20492051

20532055

20572059

2061210

220

230

240

250

260

270

280

290

WhiteBlackHispanic

2051 2060

More Evidence for the Excellence Gap

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1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 20100.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

45.0%

% of Tests Receiving a 4 or 5 on AP Exams

BlackWhiteHispanic

Not “underrepresented”?

But they keep telling us there’s a rising tide …

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Achievement vs. Excellence Gaps, FARM students 2003-2009

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Math 4

Math 8

Reading 4

Reading 8

-2 -1 0 1 2

90th Percentile All Students

Rising tide?

A Complicated Story

• Focusing on race or income in isolation can give a misleading picture– Interaction of race & income– Changes in composition

• For example the decline in Reading Grade 8 scores among White and FARM students since 2003 is almost entirely due to lower scores among lower-income Whites.

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Reading G8 90th Percentile Trends

35

2003 2005 2007 2009270.0

275.0

280.0

285.0

290.0

295.0

300.0

305.0

310.0

315.0

320.0

White FARMWhite Non-FARMBlack FARMBlack Non-FARMHispanic FARMHispanic Non-FARM

Poor white students performing at similar levelsto not-poor Hispanic and Black students

( )

So it’s all about poverty then?

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2002 2003 2005 2007 2009 20110

2

4

6

8

10

12

8

11

9

1110

9

23 3 3 3

3

5

7

3

5

45

WhiteBlackHispanic

NAEP Grade 4 Reading – DOD Schools

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8% 6%

BUT WHAT CAN WE DO ABOUT IT?

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• The “excellence underclass” will soon be the majority of students in most states–It already is in many states.

• A culture that values talent in all students is of unestimable benefit to everyone.

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% Advanced Math Grade 4 State vs. NAEP

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White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic White Black Hispanic White Black HispanicCalifornia Pennsylvania Indiana Maine

0.0

10.0

20.0

30.0

40.0

50.0

60.0

53

2629

58

27

32

16

3 4

15

7 69

1 1

9

2 1

6

0 2

7

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StateNAEP

Recommendation #1

• Make Closing the Excellence Gap a State and National Priority– Expose people to the data– That which is not visible is by definition

invisible.

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Recommendation #2

• Policymakers and educators should ask two questions:– How will this impact advanced students?– How will this help more students perform at

advanced levels?

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Recommendations #3 and #4

• Acknowledge That Both Minimum Competency and Excellence Can be Addressed At the Same Time– Other countries acknowledge this, why

can’t we?• Set Realistic Goal to Shrink Gaps

– We’re not getting every subgroup to 10% advanced in every content area any time soon.

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Recommendations #5 and #6

• Determine the Appropriate Mix of Federal, State, Local Policies and Interventions– Learn from other countries, but bring your

salt shaker– Federal research role probably a very good

thing• Use things that we know work well

– Grouping, acceleration, identification PD

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Recommendations #7, #8, and #9

• Include the Performance of Advanced Students in Discussions of Common Standards

• Address the “Low-Hanging Policy Fruit” Immediately– Early graduation and financial aid

• Conduct More Research on Advanced Learning and Talent Development– How to address stereotype threat?

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Needed Research

• How do excellence gaps correlate with long-term educational and economic outcomes?

• How do changes in immigration policy impact the need for education?

• How can recent research on stereotype threat be used to design interventions for bright students?

• Do recent advances in data systems change the way ability grouping and acceleration can be implemented?

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Excessively ProvocativeClosing Thought #1

The U.S. has created a great context in which to be

talented, but it is very bad at developing talent.

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Excessively ProvocativeClosing Thought #2

There is no naturaladvocacy group foradvanced students.

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ceep.indiana.edu/mindthegap

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CEEP Contact Information:

Jonathan Plucker, Ph.D.Director

1900 East Tenth StreetBloomington, Indiana 47406-7512812-855-4438Fax: 812-856-5890jplucker@indiana.edu

http://ceep.indiana.edu

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