The Road Forward from Copenhagen

WRI Climate Finance Workshop, February 24, 2010

Alden Meyer, Union of Concerned Scientists

If you don't know where you're going, any road will take you there.

George Harrison, "Any Road", Brainwashed, 2002

When you come to a fork in the road, take it.

Yogi Berra

Dynamics at COP 15

Conflicting Views of Post-2012 regime

Problems with the Danish Presidency

Three-ring Circus, leaders took over

US – China tension

The Copenhagen Accord

2 degrees C goal, but no peak year or global reduction targets

Countries to list targets/actions, with no review until 2015

$30 B in short-term finance, goal of $100 B/year by 2020

Developing country reporting every 2 years, with “analysis”

Not a FAB Deal

Not fair to vulnerable countries already suffering climate impacts

Not the level of ambition needed to meet 2 degrees goal

Not binding, and prospect of any binding post-2012 regime in doubt

Annex I emissions reduction targets

• Most developed country targets fall short of what science requires

• Current pledges => 3-4°C temperature increase by 2100

Source: climateactiontracker.org, 2 Feb 2010

Non Annex I mitigation actions

Source: climateactiontracker.org, 2 Feb 2010

Whither the UNFCCC?

Two negotiating tracks continue, but with unclear prospects

Opposition of US, China, India to legally-binding commitments threatens post-2012 Kyoto Protocol targets

Decisions on less charged issues possible at COP 16, along with implementing elements of the Copenhagen Accord

What’s the role of other processes?

• G20: discuss green growth, subsidy reform; major decisions unlikely, but accountability of key world leaders

• MEF: US energy ministers’ summit in July on technology plans, possible meeting on other issues this spring

• UN High-Level Advisory Group on climate finance

• “Friends of Mexican Chair” process; first meeting in Mexico City on March 18-19

Finance Issues Action on 2010-2012 funding

through existing channels

Longer-term finance discussed in multiple fora; role of High-Level Advisory Group unclear

COP16 decision to launch “Green Climate Fund?”

Carbon market growth is tied to action in US and Japan

Source: E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism

Annex I Fast Start Financing

Current pledges have yet to reach $30 billion by 2012

EU has pledged €7.2 billion ($10.6 billion) by 2012

1.26

0.8

0.375

1.2

0.1

0.012

0.15

1.8

0.3

0.09

0.16

0.009

0.06

1.2

UK

Sweden

Spain

Germany

Finland

Czech Republic

Belgium

Italy

Netherlands

Ireland

Denmark

Luxembourg

Poland

France

4.2

1110.6

4.2

USA

Japan

EU

Other

Climate-Friendly Technology

Some progress in Copenhagen on technology issues

Role of MEF Global Partnership, technology roadmaps

Follow-through on commitment to scale up public R&D

E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism

Pathway to a global climate deal

Political

Agreement

Legal

TreatyRatification

UNFCCC Text Negotiations

Managing Policy Disputes

Building Global Political Conditions

Building National Political Conditions

Detailed rules

Bilateral

Negotiations

E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism

Mapping the key countries and blocs

More powerfulLess powerful

More Supportive 2oC

Less supportive 2oC

US

China

Japan

Australia

Canada

S.KoreaMexico

India

Brazil

S.Africa

Climate leaders

e.g. Norway

Other EU

Saudi/

OPEC Russia

Progressive G77

e.g. Costa RicaIndonesia

LDCs

Africa Group

Other G77

e.g. Egypt

Progressive EU

Climate champions

Important swing states

Rogues/deal-breakers

Core/deal-makers

AOSIS

What About the US?

Domestic action in 2010 through legislation or EPA regulation?

Financing for DC mitigation and adaptation is tied to climate bill

Obama’s commitment is clear, but can he sell it to the public?

What will China do?• 40-45% carbon intensity improvement by

2020 in 12th Five-Year Plan (2011-2015)

• Higher Chinese target unlikely without US climate legislation and more pressure from progressive “ambition coalition”

• Domestic debate underway on benefits and costs of a low carbon economy

• Wider geo-politics (trade/currency, Tibet/Taiwan, etc.) affect China’s stance on issues such as MRV guidelines

E3G - Third Generation Environmentalism

2010 political calendar for climate action

2010

Feb Mar Apr MayJan

Levels of activity

Targets on CPH Accord Submitted to

UNFCCC

COP16 Cancun, Mexico

Merkel Ministerial

Political

Conditions

Near Negotiations

G8 Finance Ministers

UNFCCC Subsidiary

Bodies, Bonn

World Economic Forum / Davos

EU Parliament Hearings on new Commissioners

Ukraine elections

Canada G8 Presidency

UNFCCC

Negotiations

Spain EU Presidency African Union

Summit

BASIC Countries Meeting

Jun Jul Aug Sept Oct Nov Dec

BASIC Countries Meeting

Belgium EU Presidency

UNEP Ministerial

Environment Forum

UN Forum Financing for Dvpt

France forestry

mtg

Conference of People on CC -

Bolivia

Montreal Millennium

Summit

UNEP/UN Global

Compact Business

for the Env Summit

EU-Mexico Summit

EU-Japan

Summit

EU-US Summit

GEF Assembly

Norway forestry

mtg

G8 / G20

SummitsCommonwealth

Forestry Conference

Brazil Election

CBD COP10

G20 Summit in Korea

GEF council meeting

BASIC Countries Meeting

BASIC Countries Meeting

UNGA Summit

on MDGs

IFI Spring Meetings

IFI Autumn

Meetings

China’s 12th Five-

Year Plan?

US Mid-Term

ElectionsEU

CouncilEU

CouncilEU

Council

EU Council?

MEF+ Energy

Ministerial?

OECD Ministerial,

Green Growth

UNFCCC Bureau Mtg

UK Election

Australia Election?

Challenges for NGOs

Dealing with the new reality of a pledge-and-review world

Accessing and influencing G-20 and MEF, as well as UNFCCC

Coordination on goals and messaging

Expanding public mobilization around international demands

Questions and

comments?