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UPM SUMMER SCHOOL LISA - Laboratory of ideas for Safety in Aviation. Addressing
Aviation and ATM Safety Challenges
La Granja 11th-14th July, 2016
Joram Verstraeten, NLR
The Risk Observatory Future Sky Safety P4 - “Total System Risk Assessment”
The FSS programme
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FSS Projects
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Research on safety risk priority areas P3 Specific solutions for runway excursion accidents P4 Total system risk assessment - “The Risk Observatory” P5 Resolving the organizational accident P6 Human Performance Envelope P7 Mitigating the risk of fire, smoke & fumes
Coordination of research and innovation at European RI P1 Coordination of Institutionally Funded Safety Research P2 Dissemination, exploitation and communication
FSS Website
https://www.futuresky-safety.eu/
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Safety Management (by Bill Voss)
1. What is most likely to be the cause of your next accident
or serious incident? 2. How do you know that? 3. What are you doing about it? 4. Is it working?
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Understand safety performance
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Thomas Hoffman, COO Austro Control
Source: http://www.optics-project.eu/?page_id=877/#3rd-WS-pres
What is a risk observatory?
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.
. .
.
Prototype risk observatory
Exposure data
Radar data
FDM data Occurrence data Exposure data
....
Structuring of safety data
Feed into integrated risk assessment framework
Acquire safety information
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Why do we want a risk observatory?
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FlightPath 2050 goal: The European ATS has less than one accident per ten million commercial aircraft flights
accidents fatal accidents
source: EASA Annual Safety Review 2014
Approach to reach objectives
1. Consultation and desktop research 2. Drafted requirements 3. Translated requirements into an
early prototype
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Stakeholder consultation
Aircraft operators ANSPs Aircraft manufacturers Airports Authorities
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Previous research
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• ASCOS • ASIAS • ISAAC • ISAM • MISSA • PROSPERO • SVETLANA • Threat Radar
Consortium expertise
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What did the stakeholders say?
• “The risk observatory should be proactive: a ‘bell should ring’ if there is a threat”
• “We would like to monitor our performance against the performance of comparable organisations”
• “The risk observatory can serve as a source of hazards and lessons learned when performing risk assessments”
• “We would like to estimate the impact of a risk mitigation measure”
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“The risk observatory should be proactive: a ‘bell should ring’ if there is a threat”
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“We would like to monitor our performance against the performance of comparable organisations”
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“The risk observatory can serve as a source of hazards and lessons learned”
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“We would like to estimate the impact of a risk mitigation measure”
What is a risk observatory?
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.
. .
.
Prototype risk observatory
Exposure data
Radar data
FDM data Occurrence data Exposure data
....
Structuring of safety data
Feed into integrated risk assessment framework
Acquire safety information
Acquire safety information
Prototype risk observatory
Acquire safety information
Identifying risks and generating safety intelligence from extensive safety data exploitation
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But, the Risk Observatory is more...
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It is software for end-users
It is supporting software and hardware
It is an organisation
Challenges
• What added value can models deliver to the safety data?
• What are the possibilities and impossibilities of working with large and confidential datasets?
• How are we going to built the risk observatory?
• How can the risk observatory be organized?
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Added value of risk models (1/4)
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This ESD shows 3 scenarios of which 1 is an accident scenario: • A unstable approach is followed by a missed approach. The following approach is normal and there is a
normal landing. • There is an unstable approach, but the flight crew continues the approach. The aircraft does not
touchdown long or fast and lands normally. • There is an unstable approach, but the flight crew continues the approach. The aircraft does
touchdown long or fast causing a runway excursion.
Added value of risk models (2/4)
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This ESD shows the quantifications (equal to the examples given in the previous slide): • There is 1 runway excursion (caused by a continued UA) per 5 million flights • 1 UA out of 26,700 UA results in a runway excursion
Unstable approach
5.3E-03
Flight crew does not execute
missed approach2.2E-02
Aircraft touchdown long or fast
1.7 E-03
Runway excursion
Normal landing
Normal landing
2.0E-7
5.2E-03
1.2E-04
yes yes yes
no no
Added value of risk models (3/4)
Combining models
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New risk modelling informed by real-time operational data of everyday performance
Added value of risk models (4/4)
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Shared modelling expertise
How can the risk observatory be organized? • Should there be one Risk Observatory in Europe , or could
there be more? • Will the Risk Observatory be developed, implemented and
operated in the EU by: • A new, central, independent and not-for-profit body; • An existing, independent and not-for-profit body; • An existing governmental or industrial body;
• What governance structure for the Risk Observatory is needed in Europe?
• How to develop a long-term funding strategy to ensure continuity of the Risk Observatory services?
• Assure that data shared with the ROO are protected against misuse for purposes other than safety?
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Are we unique? No...
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FAA ASIAS
Are we unique? No...
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Data4Safety programme
...But there are unique aspects
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• A collective wisdom on aviation safety: service providers,
authorities and research institutions • Translating the input safety data into a picture of risk • It is research, we are not held back by “cold feet”
because of legal, political or other constraints
Contact P4
NLR - Netherlands Aerospace Centre Joram Verstraeten
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http://www.futuresky-safety.eu
Icons used from the Noun Project (Ainsley Wagoner, Creative stall, Rflor, Marc David Rapoza)
