The rising number of children in care:

the Cafcass data and perspective

12 October 2017

NCAS Conference 2017

Bournemouth International Centre

Anthony Douglas CBE

Chief Executive, Cafcass

“Change doesn’t start when you’re

removed. You’re already removed.”

Tony’s story

“I became a ‘looked after’ child when I was in primary school. Imagine

moving into the home of people you’ve never met, when you’re that

young. It was upsetting, distressing, and I felt I didn’t belong.

I remember going to a court hearing. Everyone was smartly dressed and

well spoken. I was a child wearing jeans. Everyone was talking about me

and making arrangements for me. Nobody asked my opinion or feelings.

It was years before I moved into what I now consider to be my home. It is

where I still live today, with a foster family who love me. I went to court to

change my surname so I could be ‘adopted’ by my family. In this case,

the judge took an interest in what I thought.

I’m now engaged to my partner and working in a role that supports

children and young people.”

Section 8 of the Children and Social Work

Act 2017: from 31 October

Section 8 makes amendments to the definition of ‘permanence

provisions’ laid out in section 31 of the Children Act 1989, adding

to existing considerations to ensure that courts must also take

into account care plan provisions which set out the child’s

individual needs, current and future, including those arising from

abuse or neglect, and consider how well the long-term plan for

the child will meet those needs. Section 8 will require the courts

to consider:

the impact on the child of any harm they have suffered (or

were likely to suffer);

their current and future needs, including any needs arising

from that impact; and

the way in which the proposed plan for their upbringing will

meet those current and future needs.

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Care Applications Received 2002-2017

Care demand and duration

31 31 30 30 30 29 29 30 3028 29

31 31

2014-15Q1

2014-15Q2

2014-15Q3

2014-15Q4

2015-16Q1

2015-16Q2

2015-16Q3

2015-16Q4

2016-17Q1

2016-17Q2

2016-17Q3

2016-17Q4

2017-18Q1

National Public Law Care Duration (Calendar Weeks)

25592838 2832 2930 2995 3049

32293519

3670 38013542 3583 3563 3587

2014-15Q1

2014-15Q2

2014-15Q3

2014-15Q4

2015-16Q1

2015-16Q2

2015-16Q3

2015-16Q4

2016-17Q1

2016-17Q2

2016-17Q3

2016-17Q4

2017-18Q1

2017-18Q2

National Public Law Care Demand

Main drivers

Risk aversion, especially in the aftermath of Baby P;

New caselaw to bring more cases into the court arena

e.g, ‘voluntary’ care cases;

Better reviewing, fuelled by the impact of research,

Ofsted inspections and professional/sector

developments;

Dramatic rises in emotional harm and neglect referrals,

leading to more care applications;

Small rises in the child population;

The impact of austerity, meaning help arrives too late for

some children and families.

Recurrent proceedings: short intervals between proceedings

25% issued prior to final

hearing of an earlier set of

proceedings.

A further 35% within one

year of final hearing.

This leaves mothers with

little time to demonstrate

change in circumstances to

the courts.

Intervals are out of sync with

what we know of durable

recovery.

Centre for Children and Family Justice Research, Lancaster University

Child maltreatment and neglect in women’s childhoods

Both case files and interview data

evidence the harm women were

exposed to, in the context of their

parental or other primary caregiver

relationships.

The literature on development

trauma helps us to think about the

negative consequences of this form

of harm.

Count Percent

Neglect 234 66.1

Emotional

Abuse237 66.9

Physical

Abuse183 51.7

Sexual

Abuse188 53.1

Total 354 100.0

Centre for Children and Family Justice Research, Lancaster University

Childhood and adulthood under the gaze of services

Fragments of the life-course are

lived outside of services.

But:

Much of childhood and early

adulthood (at least) is lived

under the gaze of professional

intervention –

How does this influence their

interaction with services?

Care

Court

Court

Aged 10

Aged

18

Aged 21

Centre for Children and Family Justice Research, Lancaster University

What this means for children?

More are being rescued from a miserable existence;

Fewer are drifting – better reviewing;

More are having their futures secured earlier – but by no

means all and some children go ‘in and out of permanence’;

More children are living within their family network;

Outcomes from care are improving slowly;

The impact of their situation on individual children is being

better recognised;

However there is a major sufficiency problem:

The number of placements is not keeping place with the

number of children coming into the care system – a problem

of type, quantity and matching.

Local and regional variation

What matters most is how the main drivers for rising

(or falling) numbers of children in care intersect

locally.

This is best understood through a local appreciative

enquiry between partner agencies.

Local and regional variation is widening.

Here are some Cafcass datasets designed to

support this process and to support service and

practice improvement.

Lack of correlation between proxy

indicatorsDemand

growth

S31 Application Duration

(Wks)Last Ofsted Inspection

S31 Apps. per 10,000

children

2016-17 vs

2015-162014-15 2015-16 2016-17 Date Result 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17

-42% 32 28 33 02-Jun-14 Improvement 9.1 13.6 23.3

-4% 22 30 33 04-Mar-13 Adequate 5.6 5.6 7.9

33% 30 29 31 23-Jan-17 Adequate 8.8 10.9 14.1

21% 41 37 42 12-Sep-16 Inadequate 7.1 10.5 8.6

22% 38 26 27 23-Jan-12 Good 14.5 12.5 19.8

21% 38 28 28 02-Jul-14 Improvement 22.4 28.2 39.0

14% 31 30 30 14-Jan-14 Improvement 11.7 12.6 11.5

-33% 32 31 28 30-Apr-14 Improvement 13.8 14.5 17.6

0% 31 38 32 31-Oct-11 Good 8.1 5.9 12.7

31% 26 31 29 18-Feb-14 Improvement 8.8 8.5 8.5

4% 32 30 29 14-Apr-15 Improvement 13.7 15.8 19.5

0% 28 28 26 30-Sep-14 Improvement 13.5 12.0 12.7

-17% 31 30 34 03-Jun-14 Inadequate 5.2 4.6 9.8

26% 29 28 27 22-Feb-16 Improvement 10.6 10.3 10.7

25% 38 27 27 13-Jan-15 Improvement 6.3 8.1 7.8

35% 25 27 27 03-Jun-14 Good 8.9 8.1 9.1

-5% 30 26 32 20-Feb-12 Good 8.3 11.9 9.4

32% 25 28 27 06-Jul-15 Improvement 6.5 8.2 9.6

-4% 26 27 25 24-Nov-15 Good 11.8 15.8 13.5

-100% 17 21 22 28-Jul-16 Good 12.4 0.0 11.6

-6% 40 31 39 22-Feb-16 Good 11.2 12.1 11.2

-9% 31 36 33 28-Jan-14 Inadequate 18.0 16.5 17.2

28% 21 24 27 03-Mar-15 Inadequate 11.2 11.3 12.1

50% 25 26 26 23-Jun-15 Inadequate 13.2 16.4 16.8

16% 24 26 25 03-Dec-12 Good 13.2 14.1 15.3

Merseyside: ‘they do things differently there’

Nine local authorities - but

the same issues in

Manchester, Stoke, Kirklees

…

Higher number of children

returning home on care

orders (up to 15-20% of the

care population) – compared

to other areas with only 5% of

children on Care Orders

placed with parents.

Local Variation by Local Authority Area

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

Legal output recorded for the children on s31 applications closed in Q1 2017-18* (by Local Authorty Area)

% Children returned to parents % Children removed from parents with family % Children permanently removed from parents

Local Variation by Cafcass Service Area (Cafcass Duration – Public Law Care)

Q12015/16

Q1 2016/17

Q12017/18

*Data from Cafcass Electronic Case Recording System

Outputs of care proceedings: national data

Output variation by local authority

Local

authority 1

Local

authority 2

Examples of successful edge of care and in-court

programmes

C2 reduction programme in Birmingham

Foster to adopt e.g., Cambridgeshire

Adoption Support Fund programmes

e.g., Stockport, Cheshire East,

Salford, Manchester and Trafford; and Kent

Family Drug and Alcohol Courts e.g.,

Milton Keynes, Lincolnshire

Preventing recurrent care proceedings e.g.,

Pause

Edge of care family support programmes

(most la’s)

Settlement conferences (Cheshire

and Merseyside)

The new Legal Aid Agency portal (150

users a minute)

Key issues

1. Many successful programmes are

dependent on short-term Government

funding.

2. No successful programme has been rolled

out to more than 20 local areas (out of

152 in England).

The rising number of children in care:

the Cafcass data and perspective

12 October 2017

NCAS Conference 2017

Bournemouth International Centre

Anthony Douglas CBE

Chief Executive, Cafcass