A DECADE OF GROWTH AND EMERGING POLITICAL A DECADE OF GROWTH AND EMERGING POLITICAL INFLUENCEINFLUENCE

A DECADE OF GROWTH AND EMERGING POLITICAL A DECADE OF GROWTH AND EMERGING POLITICAL INFLUENCEINFLUENCE

The Rising American The Rising American ElectorateElectorate

The Rising American The Rising American ElectorateElectorate

Presented by Celinda LakePresident of Lake Research Partners

Washington, DC | Berkeley, CA | New York, NY

LakeResearch.com202.776.9066

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SummarySummarySummarySummary The first decade of the millennium was marked by the

growth of the Rising American Electorate (RAE), and that growth was mainly driven by unmarried women and Latinos.

However, despite their growth in the population, unmarried women and the RAE have yet to match their strength in the overall population with strength at the ballot box.

A plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not registered, and this is the first and most fundamental barrier to voting and becoming engaged in the political process.

With targeted efforts that provide information and strategic messaging that speaks to the highly personal issue concerns of these voters, we can bring them back and rebuild much of the 2008 surge.

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2000 and 2010 November CPS Supplement

2000 2010

Unmarried Women 44,782,087+8.3 million, 19% increase

53,106,959

18-29 Year Olds 39,331,698+5.9 million, 15% increase

45,219,899

African Americans 22,409,056+2.4 million, 11% increase

24,782,189

Latinos 13,158,725+8.1 million, 62% increase

21,284,881

Numbers in the Adult Citizen Population

Looking at the full RAE, unmarried women had the most growth in sheer Looking at the full RAE, unmarried women had the most growth in sheer numbers (8.3 million). Latinos had the largest growth rate relative to numbers (8.3 million). Latinos had the largest growth rate relative to

their size (62 percent increase).their size (62 percent increase).

Looking at the full RAE, unmarried women had the most growth in sheer Looking at the full RAE, unmarried women had the most growth in sheer numbers (8.3 million). Latinos had the largest growth rate relative to numbers (8.3 million). Latinos had the largest growth rate relative to

their size (62 percent increase).their size (62 percent increase).

4Both the RAE and unmarried women lag behind when it comes to Both the RAE and unmarried women lag behind when it comes to being registering to vote. The RAE is more than half of the vote being registering to vote. The RAE is more than half of the vote

eligible population but less than half of registered voters.eligible population but less than half of registered voters.

Both the RAE and unmarried women lag behind when it comes to Both the RAE and unmarried women lag behind when it comes to being registering to vote. The RAE is more than half of the vote being registering to vote. The RAE is more than half of the vote

eligible population but less than half of registered voters.eligible population but less than half of registered voters.

Share of Population vs. Share of Registered Voters

52.8%

25.2%

47.1%

23.6%

RAE Unmarried women

Share of Adult Citizen Population

Share of Registered Voters

5In addition, there was some drop-off in share of the electorate since In addition, there was some drop-off in share of the electorate since 2008. We expect lower turnout in midterm elections, but this 2008. We expect lower turnout in midterm elections, but this

backward shift toward lower representation among voters shows backward shift toward lower representation among voters shows deterioration among these groups.deterioration among these groups.

In addition, there was some drop-off in share of the electorate since In addition, there was some drop-off in share of the electorate since 2008. We expect lower turnout in midterm elections, but this 2008. We expect lower turnout in midterm elections, but this

backward shift toward lower representation among voters shows backward shift toward lower representation among voters shows deterioration among these groups.deterioration among these groups.

Share of 2008 Voters vs. Share of 2010 Voters

46.6%

23.2%

41.9%

21.2%

RAE Unmarried women

Share of 2008 Voters

Share of 2010 Voters

6Among young adults and Latinos, about half of those eligible to vote—Among young adults and Latinos, about half of those eligible to vote—

adult citizens—are not registered. Registration is the first step to adult citizens—are not registered. Registration is the first step to voting, so groups need to start there when trying to engage these groups voting, so groups need to start there when trying to engage these groups

in 2012.in 2012.

Among young adults and Latinos, about half of those eligible to vote—Among young adults and Latinos, about half of those eligible to vote—adult citizens—are not registered. Registration is the first step to adult citizens—are not registered. Registration is the first step to

voting, so groups need to start there when trying to engage these groups voting, so groups need to start there when trying to engage these groups in 2012.in 2012.

Current Population Survey-November 2010

Voting and Registration among RAE Groups

38.3%23.9% 31.2%

25.3%

19.2%

20.4%

38.9%50.8%

36.8%48.4%

44.0%

22.8%

Unmarriedwomen

18-29 yearolds

AfricanAmericans

Latinos

Voted Registered but Didn't Vote Not Registered

10,830,026

10,908,14620,343,134

22,955,130

4,753,73212,115,424

9,120,311

11,434,743

20,648,401

6,646,31

10,302,628

4,335,943

7Overall, the plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not Overall, the plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not registered to vote, far more than the number among non-RAE adult registered to vote, far more than the number among non-RAE adult

citizens.citizens.

Overall, the plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not Overall, the plurality of the Rising American Electorate are not registered to vote, far more than the number among non-RAE adult registered to vote, far more than the number among non-RAE adult

citizens.citizens.

Current Population Survey-November 2010

Voting and Registration among RAE Groups

36.1%

56.1%

16.9%

41.9%27.0%

22.0%

Rising American Electorate Non-RAE

Voted Registered but Didn't Vote Not Registered

40,194,018

24,471,262

46,647,368

8When they do register and vote, the Rising American Electorate When they do register and vote, the Rising American Electorate votes consistently and overwhelmingly for Democrats.votes consistently and overwhelmingly for Democrats.

When they do register and vote, the Rising American Electorate When they do register and vote, the Rising American Electorate votes consistently and overwhelmingly for Democrats.votes consistently and overwhelmingly for Democrats.

2010 Generic House Vote among RAE Groups

63% 61% 57%

91%

63%

35% 36% 40%

8%

35%

RAE Total Unmarried women 18-29 year olds African Americans Latinos

Democrat Republican

+28 +25 +17 +83 +28

LRP Post-Election Survey for WVWV, October 31-November 2, 2010, 2,400 Voters

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The marriage gap in 2010 was 35 points, compared to a gender gap of The marriage gap in 2010 was 35 points, compared to a gender gap of just 9 points. Unmarried women continued their pattern of voting just 9 points. Unmarried women continued their pattern of voting

Democratic, even in what was an undeniably Republican year overall.Democratic, even in what was an undeniably Republican year overall.

The marriage gap in 2010 was 35 points, compared to a gender gap of The marriage gap in 2010 was 35 points, compared to a gender gap of just 9 points. Unmarried women continued their pattern of voting just 9 points. Unmarried women continued their pattern of voting

Democratic, even in what was an undeniably Republican year overall.Democratic, even in what was an undeniably Republican year overall.

2010 Generic House Vote by Gender/Marital Status

38 4354 6159 54

43 36

Married men Married women Unmarried men Unmarried women

Democrat Republican

-21 -11 +11+25

LRP Post-Election Survey for WVWV, October 31-November 2, 2010, 2,400 Voters

10Looking to 2012, there is great potential for a comeback, and efforts are Looking to 2012, there is great potential for a comeback, and efforts are especially merited where unmarried women and/or the RAE make up a especially merited where unmarried women and/or the RAE make up a

sizeable portion of voters. The top ten list of each is shown below.sizeable portion of voters. The top ten list of each is shown below.

Looking to 2012, there is great potential for a comeback, and efforts are Looking to 2012, there is great potential for a comeback, and efforts are especially merited where unmarried women and/or the RAE make up a especially merited where unmarried women and/or the RAE make up a

sizeable portion of voters. The top ten list of each is shown below.sizeable portion of voters. The top ten list of each is shown below.

Highest Concentration of Unmarried Women

New YorkRhode Island

South CarolinaMaryland

IllinoisMassachusetts

MississippiConnecticut

North CarolinaNew Mexico

Highest Concentration of RAE

New MexicoCalifornia

TexasMaryland

MississippiNew YorkNevadaGeorgia

LouisianaFlorida

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RecommendationsRecommendationsRecommendationsRecommendations

2008 was a new high water mark for unmarried women and RAE turnout, so looking for those voters who have voted before is a first step to engaging these groups.

Focus efforts in states with high concentrations of unmarried women or RAE eligible voters. You will get more bang for your buck.

It’s not enough to ask these people to vote—we need to reengage them on the issues, specifically their issues.

Remember that in a close election, all groups can have an impact by changing the make- up of the electorate. Connecting with unmarried women and RAE voters and bringing them back into the polling place is as important as trying to persuade the voters you already think might show up.