TheReNAPRI Partial-equilibriuminitiative

Trainingworkshop– MalawiProf.FerdiMeyer

ReNAPRI – BFAP,SouthAfrica

ReNAPRI

• RegionalNetworkofAgriculturalPolicyResearchInstitutes(ReNAPRI)– Offersauniquesolutions:

• African-led,African-driveninitiativewithaground-upapproachtopolicyresearch

– Membershipincludesexistingpolicyresearchinstituteswithaproventrack-recordofpolicyadvisementwithintheirrespectivecountries.

• InstituteforSocialandEconomicResearch,UniversityofKinshasa;DemocraticRepublicofCongo;

• Tegemeo InstituteofAgriculturalPolicyandDevelopment,Egerton University–Kenya

• CentreforAgriculturalResearchandDevelopment,Bunda College,Malawi;

• CEPPAG,UniversityofEduardoMondlane,Mozambique

• BureauforFoodandAgriculturalPolicy(BFAP)-UniversityofPretoria&Stellenbosch,SouthAfrica;

• DepartmentofAgricultureEconomicsandAgribusiness- Sokoine UniversityofAgriculture,UnitedRepublicofTanzania;

• IndabaAgriculturePolicyResearchInstitute(IAPRI),Zambia

• DepartmentofAgricultureEconomicsMakarere University,Uganda

• DepartmentofAgricultureEconomicsandExtension,UniversityofZimbabwe,Zimbabwe

ReNAPRITakingaregionalperspectiveonanalysingtheimpactofagriculturalandtradepoliciesanddrivers

Supportpolicyanalysisanddecision-makingbypublicandprivatesector

ThePEmodellinginitiative• Ongoingsince2012• Varioussourcesoffundingsupportingtheinitiative– EU,BMGF,USAID(FSPIL),FoodTrade,Univ.Pretoria,MichiganStateUniv.,Univ.ofMissourietc.

• Countrymoduleshosted&updatedbyReNAPRIinstitutes

• 3Regionalconferences(Lusaka,Mozambique,Nairobi)and30Nov2017……CapeTown!!

ReNAPRI PEcoverageSA ZAM MOZ MAL KEN TAN DRC UGD ZIM

Maize X x x x x x x x x

Wheat X x x x x

Rice X x x

Soya X x x

Sugar X x x

ACKNOWLEDGEMENT

This presentation is made possible by the generous support of the American people through the United States Agency for International Development (USAID) under the Feed the Future initiative, the Feed the Future Innovation Lab Food Security Policy, grant No. RC102750-UP Sub-Award.

The contents of this presentation are the responsibility of the study authors and do not necessarily reflect the views of USAID or the United States government.

FeedtheFutureInnovationLabforFoodSecurityPolicy

RENAPRI PE TRAINING

PETraining

Sokoine - Morogoro,Tanzania,July2015

FAPRIMissouri,USA,July2016

CEPPAGMaputo,Mozambique,Aug2016

Startingwithanendinmind!!

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Millionpe

ople

Zimbabwe(14%)

Zambia(16%)

Uganda(16%)

Tanzania(10%)

SouthAfrica(9%)

Mozambique14%)

Malawi(15%)

Kenya(15%)

DRC(16%)

BaselineAssumptions:PopulationPopulationGrowth Growthto2020

Source:IMF,2016

Baselineassumptions:GrowthGrowthinrealGDP:Outlookvs.PastDecade

-3%

-1%

1%

3%

5%

7%

9%

PerCapita

PastDecade Outlook

-3

-1

1

3

5

7

9

Percen

tage

Total

PastDecade Outlook

Source:IMF,2016

MaizeOutlook

• Kenya• Tanzania• Uganda

• Malawi• Mozambique• SouthAfrica

• Zambia• Zimbabwe• DRC

Production,TradeandPrices

Demand:Maize

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Kgperca

pitaperyear

2008-2010 2013-2015 2020

Percapitamaizeconsumption

TotalFoodDemand:4.6Milton additionalmaizeby2020

Significantgrowthinfooduse

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

Thou

sand

tons Maize Wheat

Growthinconsumption:2020vs.2013-2015

Maize(9countries)=4.6MiltonsWheat(4countries)=1.4Miltons

RegionalMaizeConsumptionTotalFeedConsumptionFeedconsumption

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Milliontons

TotalRegionalFeedConsumption SouthAfrica

ProductiongrowthAvg.annualgrowthPastDecade(2004-

2015)

Avg.annualgrowthOutlook(2016-2020)

AbsoluteGrowthMaizeareaplanted

AbsoluteGrowthYields

AreaExpansion

YieldGrowth

AreaExpansion

YieldGrowth

2012-2014‘000ha

2020‘000ha

2012-2014t/ha

2020t/ha

SouthAfrica -1.5% 2.4% -0.25% 8.52% 3158 2651 4.24t/ha 5.03t/ha

Zambia 6.1% 3.6% 1.58% 5.13% 1335 1453 2.19t/ha 2.53t/ha

Kenya 2.6% 0.7% 1.96% 1.27% 2132 2358 1.70t/ha 1.85t/ha

Tanzania 5.4% 2.5% 1.26% 2.89% 4180 4158 1.37t/ha 1.73t/ha

Malawi -0.3% 2.2% -0.16% 6.94% 1363 1444 2.19t/ha 2.46t/ha

Mozambique 0.7% -0.4% 3.65% 3.98% 1615 1618 1.06t/ha 1.14t/ha

DRC 1.6% 0.1% 3.01% 0.29% 1467 1842 0.83t/ha 0.88t/ha

Uganda 3.8% 5% 2.32% 2.72% 1098 1264 2.50t/ha 2.88t/ha

Zimbabwe -0.5% -1.7% -0.80% 14.90% 1579 1499 0.68t/ha 0.82t/ha

BaselinePrices:Maize

MaizeTrade:RegionalOverview

-4000

-3000

-2000

-1000

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

TotalNetTrade SouthAfrica Kenya ZambiaTanzania Malawi Mozambique DRCUganda Zimbabwe

Impactof2015/16drought

-10%

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

US/ton

BaselineOct2015

ScenarioFeb2016

Actual2016

Projected%

Actual%

Thankyou!

www.renapri.org