The Red Roadmaster’s US Market Monthly Re-cap + Stock Talk ™

1 February 2010 Date Line: Hong Kong (SAR) China

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US Stocks dropped Friday, as the leading tech issues pressured the S&P 500 to its worst monthly decline since February 2009.

Re-cap of the US Stock Market Action for the Month ending 29 January 2010

There is some uncertainty in the media about the fiscal stability of Greece, Portugal and Spain that may be causing US investors to pull back from early gains, even as Greek and European Union officials said there was no chance of a Greek default or EU bailout. From my POV this is "noise" and the pullback it purely technical in nature and a healthy market move.

On the Month of January: The Dow shed 3.5%, the S&P 500 gave up 3.7%, and the NAS minus'd 5.4%

On the Week: The DJIA shed 1.1%, the S&P 500 slid 1.7% and the NAS minus'd 2.6%.

On the Day: The DJIA  shed 53.13 pts, or 0.52%, to close at 10,067.33, the S&P 500 Index lost 10.66 pts, or 0.98%, to close at 1,073.87, and the NAS tallied a minus 31.65 pts, or 1.45%, to end the session at 2,147.35.

Friday the Major indexes rose more than 1% after a host of reports showed the US economy grew at a much stronger-than-expected pace during Q-4 and augured continued improvement into Q-1, though the broad market lost ground midday as investors sold off the Tech leaders: Apple Inc, Microsoft Corp, and International Business Machines Corp ahead of the Wolf Full Moon weekend.The PHLX Semiconductor index .SOXX dropped 3.4% on the day 

This sell-off has the S&P 500 off 6.7% in the last eight trading sessions.

.Advancing Sectors: (None)

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Declining Sectors: Tech (-2.1%), Energy (-1.4%), Materials (-1.4%), Industrials (-1.0%), Financials (-0.7%), Consumer Discretionary (-0.6%), Utilities (-0.6%), Health Care (-0.5%), Telecom (-0.4%), Consumer Staples (-0.2%)

Volume and Breadth: Trade was light on the NYSE, with about 1.58B/shrs changing hands, below last year's estimated daily average of 2.18B/shrs, and on the NAS, about 3.1B/shrs traded above last year's daily average of 1.63b/shrs. Decliners outnumbered advancers on the NYSE by more than 2 to 1, and on the NAS,  2 fell for each 1 that rose.

                                                   On the Earnings Front

In the headlights this 1st week of February:  Monday morning: Exxon Mobile (XOM) and Humana (HUM) report.   Tuesday: BP (BP), Dow Chemical (NYSE: DOW) and UPS (NYSE: UPS) post before the Bell, and MetLife (MET) after the Bell.   Wednesday morning: Time Warner (TWC) reports, andf Visa (V) after the close.    Thursday: Cigna (CI), Northrop Grumman (NOC), and Kellogg (K) report. Friday: Weyerhaeuser (WY) and Aetna (AET) in the morning.                                         On the Economics Front This week we have the ISM Index at 10a Monday, then Pending Home Sales at 10a  Tuesday.  Weekly Crude Oil inventories at 10:30a  Wednesday.  Initial and Continuing Job Claims at 8:30a Thursday.  And on Friday the February Employment Report at 8:30a, featuring data on Nonfarm Payrolls the Unemployment Rate and Hourly Earnings.                                           Stocks to Watch Today

BP plc (BP), Crocs, Inc. (CROX), The Dow Chemical Company (DOW), Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), and Humana Inc. (HUM),

New Feature: On the Small Cap Watch List

BWI HOLDINGS INC (BWIH) Last Look: March 2, 2009

This week I plan to publish my Up-date 1 analysis of BWIH.

Preview: Looking at BWI Holdings Inc (BWIH), the fast growing Western Canada waste management firm, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (January 29, 2010) market action is Neutral; in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral Stay tuned….

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BP plc (BP) Up-date 4 Last Look: October 27, 2009

February 1, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today, let’ look at BP plc (BP), world's 3rd largest integrated oil company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday (January 29) market action, are Neutral: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Neutral, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Paul Anderson to Join the BP Board

http://www.bp.com/genericarticle.do?categoryId=2012968&contentId=7059459

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Friday’s Market Action Close 56.12 -1.21 Volume 7,645,289shrs

There a Bearish Engulfing Candle on January 28, and four Gaps open up between August 18, and December 21, 2009 at 49.28/57.07, the near term resistance is 56.52, support at 55.90, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 58.40.

This is BP plc (BP): BP is the world's 3rd largest integrated oil company, behind Exxon Mobil and Royal Dutch Shell. The company, which was formed in 1998 from the merger of British Petroleum and Amoco, grew by buying Atlantic Richfield Company. BP has proved reserves of 17.8B bbls of oil equivalent, including large holdings in Alaska. BP is the largest oil and gas producer in the USA and also a top refiner, processing about 3.8MM bbls of Crude Oil per day. BP operates more than 25,000 gas stations worldwide. With the success of its BP Solar International subsidiary, BP has created an Alternative Energy unit with an initial investment of US$1.8B to develop green energy sources.

The Competitive Landscape

Demand is driven by economic activity, population growth, and energy efficiency for residential, industrial, and transportational uses of oil and gas. Profitability of individual companies is driven by the success rate of new wells drilled and the ability to increase production from existing wells. Large companies are advantaged by access to capital, including the ability to buy or merge smaller companies. Small companies compete by focusing on, and developing expertise in, a few geographic areas. The industry is capital intensive: average annual revenue per employee is about US$5MM.

Oil and Gas Exploration and Production Industry ForecastThe output of US natural gas extraction and crude petroleum production is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of -3.2 %between 2008 and 2013.

BP plc (HQ)

Chairman Peter D. Sutherland1 St. James's SquareLondonSW1Y 4PD, United Kingdom Phone: +44-20-7496-4000Fax: +44-20-7496-4234

http://www.bp.com

BP SubsidiariesAir BPApex-BP Solar saARCO Aluminum, Inc.

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Crocs, Inc. (CROX) Up-date 1 Last look: August 10, 2009

February 1, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today, let’s look at Crocs, Inc. (CROX), the company that brings you colorful slip-on shoes, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (January 29) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Bullish, mid-term Bullish, and long term Bullish. The recent candlestick analysis is: Very Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

Latest News and Opinion: Crocs, Inc. Leads Community in Collections for Haiti Earthquake Victims

http://company.crocs.com/mediapress-releases/

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Friday’s Market Action Close 5.49 + 1.22 Volume 21,775,500/shrs

There is a DOJI on Aug 7 and one Gap open down on Apr 7, 2009 at, the near term resistance is NIL, support at5.15, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 3.37.

This is Crocs, Inc. (CROX), the company that is bringing you colorful slip-on shoes have gained popularity in the water sports arena and in mainstream fashion. Its shoes, branded as Crocs, are made of proprietary closed-cell resin and designed for men, women, and children; Jibbitz are their decorative add-on charms. The firm operates manufacturing facilities in Mexico and China and boasts distribution centers worldwide. Crocs sells through retailers such as Dillard's, Nordstrom, and The Sports Authority, as well as through about 280 of its own stores and kiosks worldwide. Crocs has expanded on both domestic and international fronts and through acquisitions.

Competitive Landscape

Demand is driven by fashion and demographics. The profitability of individual companies depends on their ability to design and market attractive shoe models. Big companies have economies of scale in distribution and marketing. Small companies can compete successfully through superior design or marketing.

Footwear Manufacture, Wholesale, and Retail Industry ForecastThe output of US shoe and other leather product manufacturing is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 4 percent between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2008

CROCS Inc. (HQ)

John H. Duerden Chief Exec. Officer, President

6328 Monarch Park PlaceNiwot, CO 80503United States Phone: 303-848-7000Fax: 303-468-4266http://www.crocs.com

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The Dow Chemical Company (DOW) Up-date 3 Last Look July 29, 2009

February 1, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today let’s look at The Dow Chemical Company (DOW), the # 1 US chemical Company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (January 29) market action, are Bullish: in the near term Neutral, mid-term Bullish, and long term Neutral. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Very Bearish

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

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Latest News and Opinion: Dow Finalizes Sale of Acrylic Acid, Esters and Specialty Latex Assets in North America

http://news.dow.com/corporate/2010/20100125a.htm

Friday’s Market Action Close 27.09 - .28 Volume 12,601,200/shrs

There is a Bearish Engulfing Candle on January 28 and no Gaps open up or down on the Chart, the near term resistance is 27.17, support at 26.22, and the 50 day exponential moving average is 28.21.

This is Dow Chemical Company (DOW): The Company is a world leader in the production of plastics, chemicals, hydrocarbons, and agrochemicals. It is the largest chemical company in the US and #2 in the world. The company is also is a leader in performance plastics, i.e., engineering plastics, polyurethanes, and materials for Dow Automotive. Other products include polyethylene resins for packaging, such as Styrofoam brand insulation, fibers, and films, as well as performance chemicals like acrylic acid. The company also manufactures commodity chemicals (chlor-alkalies and glycols) and agricultural chemicals. A unit, Hydrocarbons and Energy, makes petrochemicals. Dow owns 50% of silicone products maker Dow Corning.

Dow Chemical's competition is in the industrial, agricultural and performance sectors of the Chemical Manufacturing Industry.

Competitive LandscapeDemand depends on the overall strength of the US economy, because most industrial chemicals are used in the manufacture of more-complicated products like fibers, plastics, paints, and paper. The profitability of individual companies is closely linked to efficient operations, because most products are commodities. Big producers have large economies of scale in production, which is why some chemicals are made by just a handful of companies. Small companies can compete effectively by making specialized or highly-purified products. The industry is highly automated: average annual revenue per employee is over US$600,000.

Industries Where Dow Chemical CompetesChemicals Plastic & Fiber ManufacturingAgricultural ChemicalsBasic and Intermediate Chemical & Petrochemical ManufacturingPaints, Coatings & Other Finishing Product ManufacturingSpecialty Chemical Manufacturing

Chemical Manufacturing - Industrial Industry ForecastThe output of US petrochemicals, industrial gas, synthetic dyes and pigments, and other basic chemicals is forecast to grow at an annual compounded rate of 3.9 % between 2008 and 2013.

Dow Chemical (HQ)

Chairman, President & CEO  Andrew N. Liveris

2030 Dow CenterMidland, MI 48674United States  

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Phone: 989-636-1000Fax: 989-636-1830Toll Free: 800-258-2436http://www.dow.com

Exxon Mobil Corp. (XOM) Up-date 8 Last Look: November 17, 2009

February 1, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today let’s look at Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM), the World's largest integrated oil company, from a Technical POV. The overall indications, after Friday’s (January 29) market action are Bearish: in the near term Bearish, mid-term Very Bearish, and long term Bearish. The recent Candle Stick analysis is: Neutral

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

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Latest News and Opinion: Exxon Mobil Corporation 2010 Analyst MeetingThursday, March 11, 2010 8:00 a.m. CT  

http://phx.corporate-ir.net/phoenix.zhtml?p=irol-eventDetails&c=115024&eventID=2669555

Friday’s Market Action Close 64.43 -.53 Volume 40,660,64/shrs

There is are three Gaps open down between November 7, and December 14, 2009 at 75.66/71.30, the near term resistance is 66.46, support at NIL, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 69.39.

This is Exxon Mobil Corp (XOM): the Company engages in the exploration, production, transportation, and sale of crude oil and natural gas. It also engages in the manufacture of petroleum products, and transportation and sale of crude oil, natural gas, and petroleum products. The company manufactures and markets commodity petrochemicals, including olefins, aromatics, polyethylene and polypropylene plastics, and other specialty products. Exxon Mobil also has interests in electric power generation facilities. As of December 31, 2007, it had 7744 millions of barrels of liquid proved reserves, and 32,610 billions of cubic feet of proved reserves of natural gas. Exxon Mobil also operated 16,797 gross wells. The company operates in the United States, Canada, Europe, Africa, Asia-Pacific, the Middle East, Russia/Caspian region, and South America. Exxon Mobil was founded in 1870. The company was formerly known as Exxon Corporation and changed its name to Exxon Mobil Corporation .

Competitive Landscape

Demand depends on the overall strength of the US economy, because most industrial chemicals are used in the manufacture of more-complicated products like fibers, plastics, paints, and paper. The profitability of individual companies is closely linked to efficient operations, because most products are commodities. Big producers have large economies of scale in production, which is why some chemicals are made by just a handful of companies. Small companies can compete effectively by making specialized or highly-purified products. The industry is highly automated: average annual revenue per employee is over US$600,000.

Exxon Mobil Corp (HQ)

Chairman, Chief Exec. Officer & President: Rex W. Tillerson

5959 Las Colinas BoulevardIrving, TX 75039-2298United States Phone: 972-444-1000Fax: 972-444-1348

http://www.exxonmobil.com

Exxon SubsidiariesAera Energy LLCEsso Petroleum Company, LimitedExxonMobil Chemical Company

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HUMANA INC (HUM) Up-date 1 Last Look April 8, 2009

February 1, 2010

Paul A. Ebeling, Jnr. Analyst

Today let’s look at Humana Inc. (HUM), the USA’s 2nd largest Medicare provider, from a Technical POV. The overall analysis after Friday’s (January 29) market action is Neutral; in the near term Neutral, mid-term Neutral, and long term Bearish.

**Chart by: http://www.stockta.com

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Latest News and Opinion: The Humana Foundation Donating Up To $150,000 To Support Earthquake-Relief Efforts In Haiti

http://www.businesswire.com/portal/site/humana/index.jsp?ndmViewId=news_view&ndmConfigId=1006772&newsId=20100114006104&newsLang=en

Friday’s Market Action Close 48.62 -.17 Volume 2,667,050/shrsThere one Gap open up on November 4, 2009 at 37.67/38.45, the near term resistance is 49.01, support at 48.12, and the 50 day (EMA) exponential moving average is 45.48.

This is Humana Inc. (HUM): Humana Inc. provides various health and supplemental benefit plans for employer groups, government benefit programs, and individuals in the United States. The company operates in two segments, Government and Commercial. The Government segment comprises beneficiaries of government benefit programs. This segment operates in three lines of business: Medicare, Military, and Medicaid. The Medicare programme is a federal program that offers hospital and medical insurance benefits to persons of age 65 and over and some disabled persons under the age of 65. The Military programme provides health insurance coverage to the dependents of active duty military personnel and to retired military personnel and their dependents. The Medicaid programme is a federal program that is state-operated to facilitate the delivery of health care services primarily to low-income residents. The Commercial segment consists of members enrolled in its medical and specialty products marketed to employer groups and individuals. This segment provides various smart plans and other consumer products, including health maintenance organization products that provide prepaid health insurance coverage to its members through a network of independent primary care physicians, specialty physicians, and other health care providers; preferred provider organization products, which are offered primarily to employer groups and individuals; and administrative services only products that are offered to employers who self-insure their employee health plans. It also offers various specialty products, including dental, vision, and other supplemental products, as well as disease management services. As of December 31, 2008, Humana Inc. had approximately 11.6 million members enrolled in medical benefit plans and approximately 6.8 million members enrolled in specialty products programs. The company was founded in 1964.

Competitive Landscape.

Demand is driven by the rising costs of providing medical care. The profitability of individual companies depends on efficient operations and the ability to negotiate favorable contracts with healthcare providers. Large companies and organizations have advantages in negotiating contracts with healthcare providers. Small companies can compete successfully only by providing special coverage plans, or in small markets. The industry is highly automated: annual revenue per employee is close to US$1M.Managed Healthcare Industry ForecastUS personal consumption expenditures on health insurance premiums, an indicator for managed healthcare services, are forecast to flatten with an annual compounded growth rate of 0% between 2008 and 2013. Data Sourced: December 2009

Humana Inc. (HQ)

Chief Exec. Officer, Pres, Director:  Michael B. McCallister 

500 West Main StreetLouisville, KY 40202United States Phone: 502-580-1000Fax: 502-580-3639

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http://www.humana.com

Humana Subsidiaries

PHP Companies, Inc.Humana Health Plan of Ohio, Inc.Humana VenturesDisclaimer

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