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Current Status and Future Trends for the Lithium-ion Battery Market Focus on Power Tools, Robotics and Cordless Devices AVICENNE ENERGY Christophe PILLOT July 11 th , 2019 London Christophe PILLOT + 33 1 44 55 19 90 [email protected] Presentation Outline The rechargeable battery market in 2019 The Li-ion battery market – Focus on power tools Li-ion Battery market Forecasts

The Rechargeable Battery Market and Main Trends 2011-2020 · 2019-07-18 · Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market –Focus on Power Tools July 11. th, 2019 London. 2030 LIB FORECASTS

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Current Status and Future Trends for

the Lithium-ion Battery Market

Focus on Power Tools, Robotics and Cordless Devices

AVICENNE ENERGY

Christophe PILLOTJuly 11th, 2019

London

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Presentation Outline• The rechargeable battery market in 2019• The Li-ion battery market – Focus on power tools• Li-ion Battery market Forecasts

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

OVERVIEW

2Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

(1) Non rechargeable – Source: AT Kearney, Duracell, Avicenne – Based on selling price from manufacturer to retailer

69 75 81

12.513

14

2016 2017 2018 (Est.)

Battery market in value (2016-2018, global, $bn, all market segments, all technologies)

Expected CAGR 18-30 (%)

+8%

~ +2-3 %

+7-9%

8288

(1)

Primary

Rechargeable

95

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

THE BATTERY MARKET IS REALLY

DYNAMIC

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2000 2018

Mill

ion

Un

its

/ ye

ar

Cellular Phones sold per Year (Million)

Li-ion

NiMH

164 MPortable PCs

155 M Tablets

0

100

200

300

400

2000 2018

Mill

ion

Un

its/

Ye

ar

Portable PC sold per Year (Million)

2.6

< 0,15

0

1

2

3

2000 2018

$/W

h

Li-ion 18650 cell price ($/Wh)

7 000

> 340 000

0

100000

200000

300000

400000

2000 2018

Ton

s

Tons of cathode active materials

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 3

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

700,000

MW

h

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000M

Wh

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2018Lithium Ion Battery: Highest growth & major part of the investments

Lead acid batteries: By far the most important market (>70% market share)

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 4

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

1990-2018

37,5

40

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

90

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

Bill

ion

US

$

Others (Flow battery, NAS, …)

Li-ion

NiMH

NiCD

Lead Acid

80 BILLION US$ in 2018 – Pack level1

9% AVERAGE GROWTH PER YEAR (2010-2018)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

19

90

20

05

20

14

20

16

20

18

Bill

ion

US$

OTHERS

AUTOMOTIVE

INDUSTRIAL

E-BIKES

POWER TOOLS

PORTABLE

SLI

SLI: Start light and ignition batteries for cars, truck, moto, boat etc…

PORTABLE: concumer electronics (cellular, portable PCs, tablests, Camera, …), data collection & handy terminals,

POWER Tools: power tools but also gardening tools

1- Pack: cell, cell assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

INDUSTRIAL• MOTIVE: Forklift (95%), others• STATIONARY: Telecom, UPS, Energy Storage System, Medical, Others

(Emergency Lighting, Security, Railroad Signaling,, Diesel Generator Starting, Control & Switchgear,

AUTOMOTIVE: HEV, P-HEV, EVOTHERS: Medical: wheelchairs, medical carts, medical devices (surgical power tools, mobile instrumentation (x-ray, ultrasound, EKG/ECG, large oxygen concentrators, drones, Light Electric Vehicles, Hoverboard, …

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 5

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

LI-ION IN 2018 - MAIN APPLICATIONS

6

(1) Cell levelOthers: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019

>160 000 MWh - 31 B$ (1) CAGR 2008/2018

+24 % per year in Volume

-

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

140,000

160,000

180,000

20

002

001

20

022

003

20

042

005

20

062

007

20

082

009

20

102

011

20

122

013

20

142

015

20

162

017

20

18

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2018

Others

Industrial, ESS

Auto, E-busChina

Auto, e-bus Excl.China

Electronicdevices

Phones17%

Portable PC66%

Portable Electronics

17%

2000: < 2GWh

2018: 160 GWh

Electronic devices

20%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

20%

Auto, E-bus China44%

Industrial, ESS5%

Others11%

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

THE WORLDWIDE BATTERY MARKET

IN 2018: US $ +80 BILLION

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

70,000

80,000

90,000EV, E-Bus

Portable

SLI

Others

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

0

2,000

4,000

6,000

8,000

10,000

12,000

14,000

16,000

Lead Acid LIB Others

Others

ESS

UPS

Telecom

Other Motive

Forklift

Power Tools

E-Bikes

US $ 27

Billion for

“other”

applications

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY, 2019 7

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

2018-2030

Portable PCs, net-book, Ultra-bookCellular Phones, Smart-phonesTabletsPower BankCamcordersCordless Tools, Gardening toolsDigital CameraGames, MP3Cordless PhonesShavers, Toothbrush, RC Cars, ToysDronesHoverboardE-bikesPower toolsSecurity lightingVehicles: HEV, P-HEV, EV, E-buses, Tram, Industrial motive (forklift)Industrial stationary (UPS, Telecom)MedicalEnergy Storage (Small / large)

Applications covered Parameters analysis

8

Main segment trends

Power need trends (volume, weight, capacity, running time)

Penetration rate for each Chemistry, each form factor,

2018 -2030 Forecasts

OEM strategies and positions

Main drivers & limiters

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

2030 LIB FORECASTS FOR PORTABLE

ELECTRONIC DEVICES2000-2030 LIB market, MWh, by

application (3C)

2000-2025 LIB market, M cells,

by form factor (3C)

9

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

M c

ells

/yea

r

Li-Pouch Li-ion Pr

Li-ion Cyl Takeshita - March 2013 (1)

(1) Source: Takeshita, Battery Japan 2013 BJ-3 conference Slide p 4Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

CAGR 18-30: + 4%

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

20

00

20

05

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

MW

h

Other PortableElectronics

Tablets

Portable PCs

Cellular Phones

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

0.08 0.2 0.40.9

1.5

0.30.4

0.8

2.5

6.0

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

Mill

ion

car

s

HEV, P-HEV, EV 2030 FORECASTS

10HEV: 1kWh battery / car

HEV manufactured PHEV manufactured

11.7

3.6

6.4

0.5

0.9

2.9

7.4

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

kWh

/ P

ack

Mill

ion

car

s

EV manufactured

1.1 2.2 3.45.2

13.8

28.8

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

20

10

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

% L

i-io

n H

EV

Mill

ion

car

s

0,7

1,3

7,5

PHEV: 12 kWh battery / car

1,5

6,5

13,8

China

World Excl.China

World Excl.China

China

World Excl.China

Realistic Scenario

3,4

2,6

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

TOTAL BATTERY DEMAND FOR XEV

2030 FORECASTS (REALISTIC SCENARIO)

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (MWh)

CAGR 2015-2030: +26%

Li-ion for EV, HEV & P-HEV Battery

needs (M$)

CAGR 2015-2030: +18%

11

0

200000

400000

600000

800000

1000000

1200000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M W

h

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEVEV EV & PHEV China E-busE-bus excl. China

0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

M $

12-48 volts SLI HEV PHEV

EV EV & PHEV China E-bus China

E-Bus excl. China

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

TOTAL POTENTIAL MARKET (M$, PACK LEVEL1)

Application details US$ 25 Billion in 2017 (1)

12

E-Bikes13% Power Tools

8%

Forklift 13%

Other Motive 1%

Telecom 13%

UPS 12%

ESS 12%

Others 28%

1- Pack level: Pack including cells, cells assembly, BMS, connectors – Power electronics (DC DC converters, invertors…) not included

2- Other App: Military, aerospace, Oil & Gas, Railways, Aviation, Utility metering,…

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2017

1 2 3 4 5 7 8 9 10 116

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

POWER TOOLS MARKET 2000-2030

13Source: AVICENNE ENERGY 2019

75

85

100

125

0

50

100

150

200

250

Mill

ion

s U

nit

s

Power Tools market worldwide, in volume, 2000-2030

Number Of Power tools Gardening Tools

In Million units 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017

Bosch 8,8 9,2 9,5 10 10 10,7 11 10,5

B&D 9,5 9 9,5 9,75 10 11,3 12,5 14,5

TTI 8 8,5 9 9,75 12 14,5 17 19,5

Makita 7 7,5 8 8 8,5 7,8 7 6,1

Metabo 4,2 4,2 4 4 4 4,3 5 5

HITACHI 2,5 2,4 2,2 2 2 2 1,5 0,8

HILTI 2 2 2 2 2 2,2 2,5 3

PANASONIC 0,6 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,5 0,6 0,5 0,4

OTHERS 18 19 20 20 21 21,2 23 25,2

TOTAL 60,6 62,3 64,7 66 70 74,6 80 85

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

14

POWER TOOLSLIB: FROM US$ 2 BILLION IN 2018 TO 3,5 B IN 20301 – CAGR15-30: +7%

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

Li-ion

NICd

Market 2017-2025 (US $, Million) – CAGR:+5% LIB Main drivers

Higher voltage

NiCd substitution

NiCd regulation

Cordless power tools & gardening tools market increase (+4% per year)

Higher energy density, less weight

LIB main Limiters

LIB average sales price

Reliability

High rate discharge

Fast charge

Life time

Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analyses

Important characteristic:

1- Higher power & capacity

2-Fast recharge

2012 ASP NiCd: 350 $/kWh

2012 ASP LIB: 550 $/kWh

Average Capacity: 60 Wh

Battery needs

Most valuable improvements

1- Price decrease

2- Fast charge

3- High rate discharge

Form factor: Cylindrical

No standardization

LIB needs

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

201

2

201

4

201

6

201

8

202

0

202

2

202

4

202

6

202

8

203

0

LIB Penetration

Note: : 1- Pack level

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

201

2

201

4

201

6

201

8

202

0

202

2

202

4

202

6

202

8

203

0

LIB market (M$)

CustomersBosch

B&D

TTI

Makita

Jingding

Hilti

ASP1

2017:440 $/Kwh2030: 250 $/Kwh

ASP:2017: 300 $/kWh2030: 240 $/kWh

Battery 2013 by Area

>75% of the power tools are made in China

But, battery pack could be made on the end-user area (Ex: Bosch –Axeon Poland)

LIB 2020 by Area

Power tools will be made in China

Local demand in Europe, US, next to the end user to increase flexibility & Just in Time mfg.

Competitors

Cell/Pack Mfg.: TOP3: Samsung, Panasonic, Sony (> 75%)

Pack makers: AXEON (Bosch),

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

POWER TOOLS

Major criteria required

Energy density – One day working without recharge Specific project: handy screwdriver with a contactless dock for quick charging High power

Actual technology

NMC 622 & NMC 811 for the major part of the market ; LTO for special project like Hilti handy screwdriver with a contactless dock for quick charging (LTO)

Unmet needs if any

One day work without recharge – Fast charge

Market potential

18650 cells for power tools in 2018: >500 Millions US$ 2 Billion market in 2018, will double in 2025 + Gardening Tools potential

Entry barriersMarket acceptanceConvince battery mfg as well as power tools mfg.

15Sources: HILTI, PSA, AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

MEDICAL TOOLS

Major criteria required

Energy densityFast chargeHigh powerHeat resistance (for better sterilization)

Actual technology

Li-ion LFP, NMC, NCALi-ion LTO can support high temperature (sterilization process) – LFP (Stryker)

Unmet needs if any

High T°C resistance for steam sterilization, like the tools rather than using Gama sterilization.

Market potential

In the range of Million battery pack/ year (50 MWh / USD 50 Mn) – Small series for special productHigh T° resistant for sterilization (To design battery integrated in the device), High cycle life and life timeHigh T° resistant for sterilization the device and the battery together (Depuy-J&J)To replace the LTO in high temperature during the sterilization process (EasyLi)

Entry barriersTime to market 5 years (Stryker)FDA regulationNeed long term customer partnership -

16

Potential application for small medical tools

Sources: Stryker, De Soutter, Depuy-J&J, EasyLi, AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

E-BUSES (FAST CHARGE E-BUSES, E-TRAM)

Major criteria required

High power (very fast charge)High cycle life (100s cycles per day)10 to 15 years calendar life – 600 000 km - > 500 000 cycles1

Actual technology

Diesel – Most of European cities have plan to switch to full ElectricFor Electric buses: Li-ion (LFP in China), NMC outside China. (Exemple of contracts: Volvo-Saft (LFP, NCA) / Daimler-Bollore (LMP), Super Cap (PVI supply Watt system to Aéroport de Nice Shuttle). PVI was bought by RENAULT in Feb 2017

Unmet needs if any

Green TransportationLife cycle, life timeEnergy density for standard E-bus – Very fast charge for Fast charge e-buses

Market potential

RATP only (Paris) : 2/3 E-Buses in 2025 (> 3000 Bus) >10 000 e-buses in Europe – 3 GWh – US$ 0,5 BnCity E-bused to be charged at each stations

Entry barriersLong Time to marketProve that the TCO is lower thanks to higher life time

17

Power batteries using Niobium could be vey well adapted for very fast

charge e-buses (fast charged at each station)

1- 15 stations x 15 times/day x 300 days x 10years = 675 000

Sources: Daimler, Bollore, EasyLi, Hilti, PSA, AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis

AUTOBUS DATA:40 000 km/yearFrance: 25 000 Bus – 65 000 autocarsAverage age: 8 yearsLife time: 10 to 15 years>600 000 km

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

E-BUSES3 main operating modes

18Source: AVICENNE ENERGY Analysis

1- New rules for charging buses in depot have huge cost impact

http://www.avere-france.org/Site/Article/?article_id=7407

Energy density

Life time

Charge Regulation1

Major criteria required

Energy density

Life time, cycle life

Life time, cycle life

Power, fast charge

Source: SAFT 2018

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

LTO (LI4TI5O12) DEMAND: CAGR2015-2030: +20% IN VALUE, +25% IN VOLUME

LTO demand details LTO suppliers

19

(1) 1 000 Tons production capacity / year

Assumption: Lithium carbonate stable @ 10 $/kg

LTO market shareLTO Price forecasts

2418 16 15 13 12

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

20102015 2018 202020252030

$ /

kg

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

20

15

20

18

20

20

20

25

20

30

Ton

s o

f LT

O

Others

Renewable Energy Storage

Grid Frequency regulation

Mass Transit

Train

E-bikes

Mild HEV

POSCO ESM (Korea)Titan (Japan)BTR (China)Ishihara (Japan)Toho Titanium (Japan)Liniy Gelon (China) (1)NEI Corp. (US)UBE (Japan)Altairnano (US)Sinuo (China)Shanshan (China)Umicore (Belgium)Zhuhai Ying Tong GroupSichuan Xingneng New MaterialsTianjiao…

Today, the demand is small and mostly based on:- Toshiba : SCiB battery for e-

bikes, --motor cycles, some xEV.

- Altairnano battery used in EV, E-buses, mass transit program

- Leclanche battery for ESS (TiBox : 3.2kWh)

- Seiko use LTO batteries in Kinetic (automatic quartz) wristwatches.

- XALT launch LTO/NMC battery for e-Bus

Target priceNot sur to be achieve…

POSCO ESM34%

Titan28%Ishihara

3%

Toho Titanium2%

BTR14%

Microvast7%

Others12%

1 5004 200

32 000

Summary of outlookDemand: thanks to high power and long life time application, the LTO market will grow rapidly (+30% per year).Price: to be competitive, LTO cost have to decrease in the range of 12 to 15 $/kg. Challenging but seems to be possible thanks to scale economy.Suppliers: POSCO is leading the market and should increase production capacity. Historical competitors are Japanese (Toho Titanium, Ishihara, Titan). Lot of new comers from China (BTR, Liniy Gelong, Sinuo, Shanshan…)

50 000

12 000

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

LI-ION BATTERY MARKET FORECASTS

20

Others: medical devices, power tools, gardening tools, e-bikes…

Source: AVICENNE Energy 2019

From 160 GWh in 2018 to >1,2 TWh CAGR 2015/2030

+20 % per year in Volume

2018: >160 GWh

2030: 1200 GWh

Electronic devices

5%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China47%

Auto, E-bus China38%

Industrial, ESS3%

Others7%

CAGR 15/30(Optimistic)

-

200,000

400,000

600,000

800,000

1,000,000

1,200,000

2000

2005

2010

2015

2020

2025

2030

M W

h

Li-ion Battery sales,MWh, Worldwide, 2000-2030

Others

Industrial, ESS

Auto, E-bus China

Auto, e-bus Excl.China

Electronic devices

14%

18%

24%

29%

4%

Electronic devices

20%

Auto, E-bus Excl. China

20%

Auto, E-bus China44%

Industrial, ESS5%

Others11%

100 GWh

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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LITHIUM ION CELL PRODUCTION

21

China – 60%USA – 2%

EU -<1%

Japan – 17%

Korea – 15%

PanasonicNECMaxellPEVEYUASA

SAFTFIAMM

BOLLORE

SAMSUNGLGSKIKokam

CATLBYD

Optinum NanoHefei Guoxuan

BAKLISHEN

FARASISEVE

Wanxiang (A123)Coslight

LGSAMSUNG

PANASONIC…

LGJohnson-Controls

EnersysSAFT

…TESLA

SAMSUNGLG

Others* – 5%

Source: AVICENNE 2019

* OTHERS: Malaysia mostly

$ 5 Bn35 GWh2019

$ 562 M3-5 GWh2018

$ 5 Bn34 GWh2028

$ 360 M2-3 GWh2018

$ 5 Bn32 GWh2023

122 162

191

247 297

350

0%

20%

40%

60%

80%

100%

-

100

200

300

400

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

Pro

du

ctio

n R

atio

(%

)

Pro

d. C

apac

ity

MW

h

Production Capacity

Demand

Production Ratio

790 M$7,5 GWh2020

$ 282 M14 GWh2022

25 GWhSolid State ?2024-2025

EUROPE

European market demand

~100 GWh in 2025

$ 1 Bn? 32 GWhNorway2025 ?

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

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July 11th, 2019London

PRODUCTION CAPACITY IN EUROPE

22

> 125 GWh in 2023

Source: BNEF, Roland Berger, Battery manufacturer annoncements, Avicenne 2019

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

BATTERY DEMAND/BATTERY CAPACITY

IN EUROPE IN 2025

23

Battery demand will reach ~100 GWh in 2025 (Some analyst forecast 4 times this amount)

Source: AVICENNE Analysis

0

50

100

150

200

250

2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025

GW

h

Annonced Production Capacity Not yet announced AVICENNE SAFT-TOTAL Roland Berger

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

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Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

TAKEAWAYS

24

Others: Automatic handling equipment, robots, forklifts, back-up, UPS, Telecom, medical devices, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, drones, Hoverboard……

Li-ion battery is driven today by Automotive & Industrial applications

In 2012, most of the car makers (except Toyota) switch to Li-ion for HEV

P-HEV, EV and E-buses will be powered by Li-ion: 19 B$ market in 2017 - 36 B$ in 2020 & 69 B$ in 2025 with high numbers in China (2017: US$6 Billion for xEV and US$ 5 Billion for xE-Buses)

EV expectations attract large Chemical companies

New materials are needed to meet Automotive standards

HEV will account for 3% of the auto sales in 2020

P-HEV & EV for 2% to 3% by 2020

Micro-hybrid will achieve >50% in 2020/25

Lead acid battery will be the first market in 2025 in volume, but Li-ion market will be higher than Lead acid in value from 2018.

A very small EV market in the automotive world will represent a huge market for batteries

New LIB applications: UPS, Telecom, Forklift, Medical, Residential ESS, Grid ESS, hoverboard, drones: CAGR > 10% in the next 15 years

Lithium battery for other application (ESS, stationary, industrial…) will reach 10 Billion $ market at the pack level in the next 5 years

ESS market could be much more important if the price of LIB at the system level is under 150 $/kWh

RECHARGEABLE BATTERY MARKET

WORLDWIDE 2000-2025

2005 2010 2015 2020 2025

MW

h

Others

LIB

NiMH

NiCd

Lead Acid

2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025Lead Acid (+5%) NiCd (-6%)NiMH (-7%) LIB for 3C (-1%)LIB for xEV (+19%) LIB for Others* (+12%)

25B$30B$

65 B$

110 B$

>150 B$

210 GWh

325 GWh

730 GWh

> 1 000 GWh

20

9

52

(CAGR 2015-2025)

69

(Pack level) 3

43B$

440 GWh

Battery Market 2015-2025 - CAGR = +9% / Li-ion>+13%

Christophe PILLOT+ 33 1 44 55 19 90

[email protected]

Current Status and Future Trends of the Global Li-ion Battery Market – Focus on

Power Tools

July 11th, 2019London

THANK YOU

Christophe PILLOT

AVICENNE ENERGY

[email protected]

Phone: +33 1 44 55 19 90

Mobile: + 33 6 88 82 79 49

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