The Recent Migration Slowdown and America’s Changing Regional Demographics

William H. FreyWilliam H. Frey

The Brookings InstitutionThe Brookings Institution

www.frey-demographer.orgwww.frey-demographer.org

The Recent Migration SlowdownThe Recent Migration Slowdown and America’s Changing Regional and America’s Changing Regional

DemographicsDemographics

Source: William H. Frey analysis

US: Population by Race: 2000 US: Population by Race: 2000 and 2050and 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

500,000

2000 2050

White

Black

Asian

HispanicOther

69.1%

46.3%


US: Population by Age: 2000 US: Population by Age: 2000 and 2050and 2050

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

450,000

2000 2050

65+

45-54

20-44

Under 20

12.4%

20.2%


New Demographic New Demographic RegionsRegions

Melting Pot AmericaMelting Pot America

The New SunbeltThe New Sunbelt

The HeartlandThe Heartland


Melting Pot, New Sunbelt and Heartland States

New SunbeltMelting PotHeartland States


Foreign Born Foreign Born 70%70%

Asian Language at Home Asian Language at Home 68%68%

Spanish at Home Spanish at Home 76%76%

Mixed MarriagesMixed Marriages 51%51%

Native BornNative Born 37%37%

English at HomeEnglish at Home 34%34%

Share of U.S. in Melting Share of U.S. in Melting Pot StatesPot States


Demographic Components, Demographic Components, 2000-20092000-2009

(Rates per 1000)(Rates per 1000)

30

16

-19

66

-15

45

-30-20-10

01020304050607080

Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

ImmigrationDomesticMigration


Domestic Migration Magnets, 2000-09

11 PhoenixPhoenix 530,579530,579

22 Riverside, CARiverside, CA 457,430457,430

33 AtlantaAtlanta 412,832412,832

44 Dallas Dallas 307,907307,907

55 Las VegasLas Vegas 299,027299,027

66 TampaTampa 254,650254,650

77 CharlotteCharlotte 243,399243,399

88 HoustonHouston 242,573242,573


Greatest Domestic Out-Migration, 2000-09

11 New YorkNew York -1,920,745-1,920,745

22 Los AngelesLos Angeles -1,337,522-1,337,522

33 ChicagoChicago -547,430-547,430

44 DetroitDetroit -361,632-361,632

55 San San FranciscoFrancisco -343,834-343,834

66 New OrleansNew Orleans - 298,721- 298,721

77 MiamiMiami -284,860-284,860

88 San JoseSan Jose -233,133-233,133


Immigrant Magnet Metros, 2000-09

11 New YorkNew York 1,079,0161,079,016

22 Los AngelesLos Angeles 803,614803,614

33 MiamiMiami 506,423506,423

44 ChicagoChicago 363,134363,134

55 DallasDallas 323,941323,941

66 Washington DCWashington DC 310,222310,222


88 San FranciscoSan Francisco 257,318257,318


US County Growth 2005-6US County Growth 2005-6


US County Growth 2008-9US County Growth 2008-9


CA, West Growth 2005-6 vs CA, West Growth 2005-6 vs 2008-92008-9


Florida Growth, 2005-6 vs Florida Growth, 2005-6 vs 2008-92008-9


Annual Population Growth, 2000-9

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

Nevada Arizona Florida Texas

Nevada, Arizona, Florida, Texas



-0.6

-0.4

-0.2

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0

1.2

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

Los Angeles New York

Los Angeles Metro, New York Metro



0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

Urban Suburban Exurban

Urban, Suburban, Exurban


0

5

10

15

20

25

1948

-194

919

50-1

951

1952

-195

319

54-1

955

1956

-195

719

58-1

959

1960

-196

119

62-1

963

1964

-196

519

66-1

967

1968

-196

919

70-1

971

1975

-197

619

80-1

981

1982

-198

319

84-1

985

1986

-198

719

88-1

989

1990

-199

119

92-1

993*

1994

-199

519

96-1

997

1998

-199

920

00-2

001

2002

-200

320

04-2

005

2006

-200

720

08-2

009

Migration Slowdown 1947-8 to 2008-9


Migration between States by AgeMigration between States by Age2000-1 versus 2008-92000-1 versus 2008-9

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

Age <

59-M

ay

14-O

ct15

-1920

-2425

-2930

-3435

-3940

-4445

-4950

-5455

-5960

-64 65+

2000-2001 2008-2009


Reasons for Moving Between Reasons for Moving Between StatesStates

2004-5 versus 2008-92004-5 versus 2008-9

22 14

34 46

30 25

13 15

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

2004-5 2008-9

Other

Family Related

Jobs Related

HousingRelated


California versus Mountain WestAnnual Net Domestic Migration 2000-9

-400000.0

-300000.0

-200000.0

-100000.0

0.0

100000.0

200000.0

300000.0

400000.0

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

California Mountain West


Nevada: Greatest Net Migration Nevada: Greatest Net Migration Origins: Origins: 2000-82000-8

Net Mig. Net Mig. MigratioMigratio

nn

Share of Share of

totaltotal

CaliforCaliforniania 192,382192,382 69%69%

New New YorkYork 15,23715,237 5%5%

IllinoisIllinois 14,73414,734 5%5%

HawaiiHawaii 10,35810,358 4%4%

MichigMichiganan 10,12510,125 4%4%


California Net Migration by California Net Migration by Education: Education:

2004-5 versus 2007-82004-5 versus 2007-8

-70,000

-60,000

-50,000

-40,000

-30,000

-20,000

-10,000

0

10,000

Less Than HS HS grad Some College College Grad

2004-5 2007-8


New York versus FloridaAnnual Net Domestic Migration 2000-9

-300000.0

-200000.0

-100000.0

0.0

100000.0

200000.0

300000.0

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

New York Florida


Top Metro Net Migration Gainers, Top Metro Net Migration Gainers, 2004-52004-5

RankRank MetroMetro Net MigNet Mig

11 PhoenixPhoenix 98,78998,78922 RiversideRiverside 72,34172,34133 TampaTampa 51,98551,98544 OrlandoOrlando 51,82651,82655 AtlantaAtlanta 51,30551,30566 Las VegasLas Vegas 39,33139,331


New and Old Net Migration New and Old Net Migration Gainers, 2008-9Gainers, 2008-9

RankRank MetroMetro Net MigNet Mig


22 DallasDallas 45,24145,241

33 AustinAustin 25,65425,654

44 RaleighRaleigh 20,09520,095

55 DenverDenver 19,83119,831

66 CharlotteCharlotte 19,21119,211

99 AtlantaAtlanta 17,47917,479

1313 PhoenixPhoenix 12,44112,441

3030 TampaTampa 4,6634,663

279279 RiversideRiverside -616-616

306306 Las VegasLas Vegas -1,256-1,256

346346 OrlandoOrlando -4,279-4,279


Florida Metro Areas Florida Metro Areas Annual Net Migration Annual Net Migration 2000-2009

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

Orlando Tampa Jacksonville


Texas Metro Areas Texas Metro Areas Annual Net Migration 2000-2009Annual Net Migration 2000-2009

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

Dallas Houston Austin


Metro Las Vegas Domestic and International Migration

2000-2009

-10,000

0

10,000

20,000

30,000

40,000

50,000

60,000

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9

Domestic International


Metro Phoenix Metro Phoenix Domestic and International Migration Domestic and International Migration

2000-20092000-2009

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9



Metro Riverside, CADomestic and International Migration

2000-2009

-20,000

0

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

120,000

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9



Metro Los Angeles, CADomestic and International Migration

2000-2009

-300,000

-250,000

-200,000

-150,000

-100,000

-50,000

0

50,000

100,000

150,000

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8 2008-9



Race Composition of Regions 2008

68%

15%

3%3%

11%

White Black Asian Other Hispanic

79%

12%

2%2% 5%

Melting Pot New Sunbelt Heartland

53%

11%

7%

2%

27%

25% and above

10.0% to 24.9%

5.0 to 9.9%

Under 5%

Hispanic Hispanic ConcentrationsConcentrations

Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Percent of County Population

Asian ConcentrationsAsian Concentrations

10% and above

5.0% to 9.9%

2.0% to 4.9%

Under 2%

Percent of County Population

Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

Black ConcentrationsBlack Concentrations

Percent of County Population25% and above

10.0% to 24.9%

5.0% to 9.9%

Under 5% Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates

White ConcentrationsWhite Concentrations

Percent of County Population95% and above

85.0% to 94.9%

70.0% to 84.9%

Under 70%Data source: William H. Frey, US Census Estimates


CA and MT West: Race Change CA and MT West: Race Change 1990-20081990-2008

-2,000,000

-1,000,000

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

5,000,000

6,000,000

California MT West

White BlackAsianHispanic


Race Ethnic Profile: 1990, Race Ethnic Profile: 1990, 20082008

5742

6751

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

1990 2008 1990 2008

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others

MOUNTAIN WESTCALIFORNIA


Annual Hispanic Growth Rates, 2000-8: Selected West Metros

0.01.02.03.04.05.06.07.08.09.0

10.0

2000-1 2001-2 2002-3 2003-4 2004-05 2005-6 2006-7 2007-8

Las Vegas Phoenix Riverside Los Angeles


Growth 5% and overGrowth under 5%Decline under 5%Decline 5% and over

State Growth in Child Population*, State Growth in Child Population*, 2000-20102000-2010

Under age 18


Percent Non White Children*, Percent Non White Children*, 20152015

GT 50%40% - 50%30% - 40%20% - 40%Under 20%

* Under age 15


Percent Children with Immigrant ParentsPercent Children with Immigrant Parents

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

CA NY NV AZ FL NJ TX US

Ist Gen 2nd Gen

51%

35% 35% 34% 32% 31% 31%

23%


US Growth by Age 2000-10

310

4

-9

19

49

16 14

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

0- 5 15-24 25-34 35-44 45-54 55-64 65-74 75+


Age 65 + Growth, 2000-10, US States

25% & above20% -24%10% -19%under 10%


Greatest 65+ Growth, 2000-8Metros over 500,000

11 ProvoProvo 131.4131.422 RaleighRaleigh 38.638.633 AustinAustin 36.836.844 AtlantaAtlanta 36.236.255 Boise CityBoise City 35.735.766 OrlandoOrlando 33.333.377 Las VegasLas Vegas 32.432.488 DallasDallas 28.628.699 TucsonTucson 28.428.4

1010 HoustonHouston 28.128.1


Percent 65+ population for States, 2005

13.4% & above12% -13%11% -11.9%under 12%


140% & above100% -139%70% -99%under 69%

Projected Age 65+ Growth 2000-30, US States


Projected Age 65+ Growth, 2000-40

02468

101214161820

2005

-10

2010

-15

2015

-20

2020

-25

2025

-30

2030

-35

2035

-40

2000

-05

2005

-10

2010

-15

2015

-20

2020

-25

2025

-30

2030

-35

2035

-40

2000

-05

2005

-10

2010

-15

2015

-20

2020

-25

2025

-30

2030

-35

2035

-40

Florida California New York

perc

ent g

row

th


Race for Age Groups: US

55.5 60.371.6

80.4

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+



Race for Age Groups: California

29.4 36.050.7

63.3

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+



Race for Age Groups: Nevada

42.9 51.066.2

76.9

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+



Race for Age Groups: Arizona

42.150.8

68.482.9

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+



Race for Age Groups: Minnesota

76.4 81.690.7 95.6

0%10%20%30%40%50%60%70%80%90%

100%

Age Under15

Age 15-39 Age 40-64 Age 65+



United StatesUnited StatesProjected Race Compositions,

2025

Under Age 18Under Age 18

52 %

white black Indian Asian Hispanic

62 %

Age 18 -64Age 18 -64

76 %

Age 65+Age 65+


Projected State Population Growth 2000-2010

15% and above

10% to 15%

5% to 10%

Under 5%


Projected Changes in Congressional Seats after 2010

Census

4

11

1

1

11

1

-1

-1-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

-1

- 2



Fast-Growing Purple States, 2008

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep

All Other



Slow-Growing Purple States, 2008

Purple-Dem

Purple-Rep

All Other


Source: William H. Frey analysis of CPS November 2004, 2008 supplements

“Fast-Growing” vs “Slow-Growing”

Purple State Growth, 2004-8

7.8

36.8

28.0

41.8

8.3 8.3

-1.7

12.6

-505

101520253035404550

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians,Other

Fast Growing Slow Growing



2008 Blue States: Won by Whites and Minorities


Nevada, New Mexico Voters: Nevada, New Mexico Voters: 2004, 20082004, 2008

8073

56 55

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

2004 2008 2004 2008

Whites Blacks Hispanics Asians Others

Nevada New Mexico


Nevada – Democratic Margins

-3-12

73

2112

-8

89

54

-40-30-20-10

0102030405060708090

100

Total Whites Blacks Hispanics

2004 2008


New Mexico – Democratic Margins

-1

-13

1215

-14

39

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

40

50

Total Whites Hispanics

2004 2008


Useful WebsitesUseful Websites

www.brookings.edu/metrowww.brookings.edu/metro

www.frey-demographer.org www.frey-demographer.org

Documents

The Recent Migration Slowdown and America’s Changing Regional Demographics