“The Quiet Dilemma”

SKILLS SHORTAGES,

HIGHER EDUCATION

&

TODAY'S YOUTH

Kenneth GrayPenn State University

Indiana School Counselors Association

Fall Conference - 2001

The Technical Work Force

Professional

25%

Blue-Collar Tech. Workers

56%

Technicians19%

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A region that does not have a growing percentage of it non-professional workforcetrained beyond high school level will have increasing difficulty in supporting the competitiveness of high-value business.

Building a World-Class Technical Workforce, 1996

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The Quiet Dilemma

• University Graduation Rate = 52%

• University underemployment rate = 43%

• Baccalaureate Success rate = 1 in 4.

The Nation’s Quiet Dilemma

Underemployment of University Graduates

• 43% of grads in high school jobs two yrs later• 43% in jobs with no career potential 4 yrs later • 69% of arts and science majors in jobs with no

career potential 4 yrs later

Source: B&B 1st & 2nd follow-up, NCES 93/97

Employment Outlook for University Graduates

2006

Supply Demand Commensurate

Employment

Bachelors 1,268,000 734,300 57%

Recommending College in Sophomore Years for 1982 and 1992 High School Graduates

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Father Mother Guidance Teachers Counselor 1982 1992 1982 1992 1982 1992 1982 1992

Total 59.1 77.0 64.8 82.9 32.3 65.2 32.3 65.5

Test Quartile 40.4 59.9 47.6 64.7 26.1 59.4 28.2 57.2 Lowest

Second 49.7 71.7 55.6 79.3 26.1 61.1 26.5 60.7

Source: HS &B base year student survey (1980) and NELS:88 first follow-up student survey (1990), National Center for Education Statistics, U.S. Department of Education

Confusion Regarding the Importance of Job Skills

Sources of Labor Market Advantage

High Skill/ High Wage

Low Skill/Low Wage

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Effects of Skills on Productivity in Non Clerical-N

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

Technical Clerical

Speed

Compute

Speed

Math

Reasoning

Science Verbal

Success inTraining

Productivity

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Sources of Labor Market Advantage

High Skill/ High Wage

Low Skill/Low Wage

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Occupational Groups Ranked by Earnings

Earnings

Managerial/Professional 1

Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 2

Technical Support 3

Service 4

Operative, Laborer 5

Farming, Fishing 6

Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical Abstracts U.S. 1994.

Occupational Groups Ranked by Earnings, Net Openings

Earning Openings

Managerial/Professional 1 Technical Support 1

Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 2 Operative, Laborer 2

Technical Support 3 Craft, Precision Metal, Repair 3

Service 4 Service 4

Operative, Laborer 5 Farming, Fishing 5

Farming, Fishing 6 Managerial/Professional 6

Source: Compiled from Eck, (1994) & Statistical Abstracts U.S. 1994.

A New Goal

Stop counting the number of teens who go to college and start counting how many are successful.

Every student should graduate with a postsecondary plan that has a high probability of success.

Today

Success Requires

Academic Skills

&

Career Direction

Where High School Seniors Expect to be Employed

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Occupations All Seniors Males Females

Professional 59.0 49.3 68.8

Manager 6.0 6.6 5.4

Craft/Precisionmanufacturing/ 2.8 5.3 0.3Specialized repair

Technicians 6.0 8.4 3.7

Source: U.S. Department of Education

All my life I’ve always wanted

to be somebody, but I see now

I should have been more specific.

Wagner, 1986

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Old Advice that is Now Bad Advice

• Postpone career choices as long as possible

You don’t want to close any doors.

• Don worry about career indecision you will decide that in college. (The difference between acceptance into college and acceptance into a major).

Career Development Basics

• Not our role to tell teens and parents what they should or should not do. It is our role to help them make the best decision they can.

• Remember the difference between jobs and careers.

• Remember fastest growing occupations may not mean the greatest opportunity.

Student Outcomes Goals of Career Development Programs

Help teens make the best career decision they can based on what they know “now” about themselves and the world of work. If this is a good decision, the next decision will be even better.

Student Outcomes Goals of Career Development Programs

By the tenth grade all students will have participated in activities designed to help them identify several career options.

In the eleventh and twelfth grades all students will participate in activities that allow them to verify these choices, using the results to develop postsecondary plans.

Four Messages for Students and Parents

1. Focus on postsecondary success, not college admissions.

2. Take career exploration seriously—career direction predicts success.

.3. If one goal is economic security, then don’t confuse education with occupational skills.

4. Consider two-year postsecondary technical education and apprenticeship training that can lead to a four-year college degree.

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