THE PROBLEM OF DISASTER IN KENYA

THE PROBLEM OF DISASTERS IN KENYASave More Campaign LaunchNairobi30th May 2015Wachira J. Junior DRR Consultant, Rural Focus LTDTechnical Volunteer, The Save More Campaign

Disasters- Divergent NarrativesMainstream understandingCommon among UN & Agencies, INGOs/NGOS, most governments, Media, EMDAT and most disaster data sites etcDefined by: Natural or technological event in which:1. 10 or more people reported killed and/or2. 100 people reported affected and/or, 3. a call for international assistance and/or,4. declaration of a state of emergency.Emerging thinkingAmong academic researchers of urban and rural risks and DRR expertsChallenges the mainstream understanding as it tends disregard trivial, everyday hazards while concentrating more on the large, catastrophic events.Facts:In most cities and smaller urban centres in low and middle income countries, the myriad everyday small and medium but chronic events cumulatively kill or injure more people than large disasters Bull-Kamanga et al., (2003), . Peoples interaction with these events may generate or aggravate vulnerabilities to larger disasters by expending their coping capacities or discouraging adaptive measure if the communities particularly the marginally settled get used to them as part of their daily experiences.

Reference: Bull-Kamanga L., DiagneA., Leon E., Lerise, H., MacGregor, H., Pelling, M., (2003) From Everyday Hazards to Disasters: The Accumulation of Risk in Urban Areas, Environment and Urbanization EMDAT Database: http://www.emdat.be/database 2The Disaster ContinuumEffective disaster management should envision disasters as a continuum entailing everyday risks to small and large disasters, depending on the scale of the loss (and generally the frequency of the event Example: The Continuum of water related in an urban setting (Wachira 2013, based on Satterthwaite (2006)

Nature of eventEveryday [chronic] risksSmall DisasterDisasterFrequencyEverydayFrequent (Often Seasonal)Generally infrequentScale1-2 people killed; 1-9 people injured3-9 people killed, 10 or more injured Large or potential to be large 10+ killed, 100+ seriously injuredImpact on all premature and serious InjuriesMain cause of premature deaths and serious injuries e.g. diseases caused by contaminated/ stagnant/untreated waterProbably significant and underestimated contribution e.g. seasonal flooding and droughtCan be catastrophic for specific places and times, but low over alle.g. heavy flash floods and severe drought exacerbated by climate changeReference: Wachira J. W (2013):Envisioning a Resilient Water Supply System in the Context of Change in Arid and Semi Arid Lands of Kenya. A Research Paper for Crae International and FAO (In Print)3Disaster Continuum (cntd) Case of Mathare Valley, Nairobi

Photo Sources: 1. Mwau C.B (2012), Living on the Edge of Mathare Valley Disaster available online at https://slumurbanism.wordpress.com/2012/04/05/living-on-the-edge/ 9 killed and more injured, abot 40 homes wrecked2. Engineering and Physical Research Council-Website

Low sanitation coverage has had particular consequences on health and risk of disease outbreak in populous centers and contributes to chronic under-nutrition and ultimately, stunting. Stunting is linked to diminished scholastic achievement and intellectual function, reduced lifetime earnings, short adult stature and it has adverse pregnancy outcomes for women Griffiths, J. K. (2014). Water, Sanitation, and the Prevention of Stunting: An Holistic view of Why Food Isn't Enough.

4Kenya Natural Hazards Map (UNDP Enhanced Security Program)

Kenya Natural Hazards Map doesnt overlap well with Natural Disaster Map

2011: 3.75 M affected2009: 3.79 M affected2006: 2.97 affected2004: 2-3 M People1999/2000: 4.4 M people1995/96: 1.41 M people1991/92: 1.5 M people1983/84: 2000001980: 400001977: 200001975: 160002002: 150,000 pax affected1982: 4,0002004: 2,000 affected2002: 2,000 affected2015 Narok Follds: 15 people died, thousands affected2015: Nairobi Floods, 9 deaths, thousands affected2012/13: 273 displaced by floods in West Pokot2012/13: 14 killed by landslides in Keiyo2015: Mombasa Floods affected2013,2014, 2015: Isiolo Floods, affecting thousands2014 drought in Nyeri affected thousands in failed crops and lost livestockDrought: Drought is frequently declared a national disaster in Kenya, with four such declarations made in the decade ending 2011. These national drought disasters were declared in 2004, 2006, 2009 and 2011 (Fitzgibbon, 2012 Cited in Wachira, 2013)

6Technological disastersAre a common occurrence, in the form of factory/enterprise fires, industrial emissions, fuel tanker accidents, accidents & derailments etcRecent examplesChangamwe Lead poisoning (Kenya Metal refinery)- 2007-2015, 3 dead, 5000 affected (Standard Media Group 2015)Nairobi Pipeline Fire Disaster (Mukuru-Sinai Fire): 2011, 120 people were killed in the fire and at least 116 others were hospitalized with varying degrees of burns (Kenya Red Cross)Molo (Sachangwan) and Kericho fuel truck fire: 2009, 131 died, 271 casualties (Open Access Journal of Plastic Surgery, 2009)Nakumat Downtown Fire: 2009, 46 died, property worth billions of $ and cultural values reduced to ashes (Open Access Journal of Plastic Surgery, 2009)

Often Characterized by: political dignitaries troop to the scene of disaster, declaration of days of mourning, calls for foreign aid, rhetoric, promises to take action, the blame game and finally, business as usualhttps://www.standardmedia.co.ke/thecounties/article/2000160328/state-officials-storm-changamwe-lead-factory-after-ktn-s-expose 7Cost of poor disaster preparednessDifficult to estimate, especially because of the numerous undereported events and the fact that impact transcends financial values to touch on social and other losses on the population and economyWe can get an indication from drought emergency responses: OCHA has estimated that the GoK allocated Ksh 18 billion to drought response in 2011. World bank and other donors channeled over US$ 125 m (ksh.10 billion) in the decade ending 2010.ButA Post Disaster Needs Assessment (PDNA) for the extended 2008-2011 drought period estamates the total damage to the Kenya Economy over this period was a staggering Ksh 968 billion (Fitsgiborn 2012)Yet..Investing in resilience building and early response is more cost effective with a proven actual cost per head of 50% lower in both drought and non-drought years

Disasters, Impacts and thus costs are likely to go upPolitical goodwill remains elusive.Currently there are no laws or regulations addressing DM specifically.Kenyas National Disaster Management Policy which provides for a comprehensive institutional and legal framework has yet to be introduced in Parliament for enactment into law.Mandates for DMA have been given to both the National and County Governments under schedule 4 of the CoK 2010. Some counties are already drafting county DM act, which are likely to remain as draft till there is a national policy/legislationClimate Change is aggravating frequency, variability and intensity of environment related hazards such as floods and drought. A climate Change mgt bill was shot down by Parliament in 2013Population increase, high unemployment and urbanization leading to high risk jobs (e.g. prostitution, illegal brewing) and settlement in marginal and precarious landsFrequent ethnic related displacements Increasing land degradation and deforestation (e.g Mau Forest and Cherangany Hill)Terrorism

Is all lost? Constitution of Kenya 2010 though without explicit articles on DRR, avenue through the bill of rights (e.g. to life) and access to basic services (e.g clean adequate water in Article 43Kenya Vision for a middle level income by 2030 provided an opportunity for working towards eliminating/minimizing impacts of disastersIGAD Sanctioned EDE (Ending Drought Emergencies) support resilience anchored interventions/thinkingPost 2015 SDG provide a paradigm shift, highlighting importance of resilience and gravitating towards the generation of local solutions to local problemsSendai Framework for DRR vouches for an enhanced role for science, and recognizes social processes and weak institutional arrangements as drivers of riskCMDRR approach is proving productive in DRR, through community empowerment and utilization of IKHow can the SM Campaign Help?

Campaign, Campaign, Campaign; for The demystification of the naturalness of Disasters Legislation enactment and policy formulation on DMResilience orientated interventions Justice to Victims of Disasters

Think about it..A strategically positioned flea can make even the biggest dog in the world UNCOMFORTABLE anonymous

End. Thanks Wachirajac@yahoo.com