The President and The President and Public OpinionPublic Opinion

Representation, Power, and Public Representation, Power, and Public OpinionOpinion

From the standpoint of democratic theory, the From the standpoint of democratic theory, the president is the only elected official in the U.S. president is the only elected official in the U.S. who represents the public at large. who represents the public at large.

Congress viewed in macro does, but individual Congress viewed in macro does, but individual members do not, except in the sense that they members do not, except in the sense that they have a duty as public persons. have a duty as public persons.

The Supreme Court represents the law. The Supreme Court represents the law.

Accordingly, the president should reflect some Accordingly, the president should reflect some overarching sense of public preferences. Which overarching sense of public preferences. Which public preferences? The public at large? The public preferences? The public at large? The electoral coalition? These are important questions electoral coalition? These are important questions in democratic theory.in democratic theory.

Presidents also care about public opinion because Presidents also care about public opinion because of power concerns.of power concerns.

Public sentiment is very important to the president. Public sentiment is very important to the president. A principal source of influence for presidents is the A principal source of influence for presidents is the approval they receive from those in the policy approval they receive from those in the policy environment. This includes the public at large, a environment. This includes the public at large, a policy community of elites, as well as fellow policy community of elites, as well as fellow partisans.partisans.

The president wants to please the public, or at The president wants to please the public, or at least avoid irritating it. Presidents also want to least avoid irritating it. Presidents also want to lead the public. Moreover, presidents are lead the public. Moreover, presidents are expected to be leaders.expected to be leaders.

There is a reciprocal relationship here. Presidents There is a reciprocal relationship here. Presidents want to both please and lead the public.want to both please and lead the public.

Impediments to Leading Public Impediments to Leading Public OpinionOpinion

Gauging public opinion is a difficult task. Gauging public opinion is a difficult task.

The public may not have clear views on many issuesThe public may not have clear views on many issues

The public is often ill informedThe public is often ill informed

The public is volatile, often being set off at symbolic The public is volatile, often being set off at symbolic issuesissues

Polls may be inaccurate, biased by methodology. Polls may be inaccurate, biased by methodology.

Public sentiment can be soft.Public sentiment can be soft.

People around the president may tell the chief executive People around the president may tell the chief executive what he wants to hear, rather than what they need to hear. what he wants to hear, rather than what they need to hear. Nixon surrounded himself with loyalists, rather than Nixon surrounded himself with loyalists, rather than professionals. George W. Bush also to a great extent.professionals. George W. Bush also to a great extent.

The president is in the limelight of American politics, with The president is in the limelight of American politics, with the media focusing in on every little detail. the media focusing in on every little detail.

The media is very important to public opinion.The media is very important to public opinion.

The media may not provide the sort of favorable treatment The media may not provide the sort of favorable treatment that the president wants. As a result, presidents may lose that the president wants. As a result, presidents may lose control of their message and public opinion.control of their message and public opinion.

The public has extremely high expectations of the The public has extremely high expectations of the president. Personally their lives are expected to be president. Personally their lives are expected to be conducted at a much higher level than almost any conducted at a much higher level than almost any individual citizen. They are also expected to be individual citizen. They are also expected to be ““all all intelligentintelligent””, prescient, exhibiting strong personality, , prescient, exhibiting strong personality, effective leadership skills, decisive, effective in public effective leadership skills, decisive, effective in public speaking, hard negotiators. It is not clear that any speaking, hard negotiators. It is not clear that any individual can meet up to the publicindividual can meet up to the public’’s expectations. s expectations.

Thus, there is a substantial gap between the presidential Thus, there is a substantial gap between the presidential reality and the publicreality and the public’’s expectations. This is often called s expectations. This is often called the “expectations gap.”the “expectations gap.”

Part of the reason for the publicPart of the reason for the public’’s high expectations of the s high expectations of the president lies in its lack of understanding of the context in president lies in its lack of understanding of the context in which the presidency operates. He is assumed all which the presidency operates. He is assumed all powerful; yet the presidency is probably our weakest powerful; yet the presidency is probably our weakest institution in terms of formal powers and ability to exercise institution in terms of formal powers and ability to exercise power. Presidents must often persuade.power. Presidents must often persuade.

Contradictory expectations of the president:Contradictory expectations of the president:

Leader, an independent figure who speaks out and Leader, an independent figure who speaks out and takes stands on issues. Responsive to the electorate takes stands on issues. Responsive to the electorate and mass public. A no win situation. and mass public. A no win situation.

If they are too independent they canIf they are too independent they can’’t be responsive; t be responsive; if too responsive they are considered to be if too responsive they are considered to be ““wafflers.wafflers.”” Clinton perceived as a Clinton perceived as a ““wafflerwaffler”” early on as he was early on as he was more responsive.more responsive.

Flexible and willing to compromise on issues; decisive Flexible and willing to compromise on issues; decisive and taking a firm stand reflecting strong values and and taking a firm stand reflecting strong values and well reasoned positions.well reasoned positions.

A statesman who places the A statesman who places the ““nationnation’’ss”” interests interests ahead of ahead of ““particularisticparticularistic”” interests. A skilled politician interests. A skilled politician who can build coalitions and get things done. who can build coalitions and get things done.

Open administrations with a free flow of ideas, and Open administrations with a free flow of ideas, and keeping the details of government visible to the keeping the details of government visible to the public. No secrecy. President should be in control of public. No secrecy. President should be in control of things. Evidence of internal dissent is seen as that things. Evidence of internal dissent is seen as that the president in not in charge.the president in not in charge.

We want our president to “keep us safe”! Yet, we also We want our president to “keep us safe”! Yet, we also want our president to respect civil liberties. Are the want our president to respect civil liberties. Are the two things compatible? Can the president keep us two things compatible? Can the president keep us safe without conducting surveillance operations safe without conducting surveillance operations directed at those who would make us unsafe? Who directed at those who would make us unsafe? Who decides who these are?decides who these are?

Populist tendency to relate to the average person is Populist tendency to relate to the average person is desirable. Yet citizens do not really want the desirable. Yet citizens do not really want the president to be like them, since he is held to a much president to be like them, since he is held to a much higher standard. Average citizen has lied, stolen, higher standard. Average citizen has lied, stolen, been unfaithful maritally, been divorced, seen a shrink been unfaithful maritally, been divorced, seen a shrink at one time or another, been drunk, sampled illegal at one time or another, been drunk, sampled illegal drugs, etc. drugs, etc.

Great presidents are not passive followers of public Great presidents are not passive followers of public opinion; they are leaders of it. Teddy Roosevelt. opinion; they are leaders of it. Teddy Roosevelt. ““People used to say of me that I ... divined what people People used to say of me that I ... divined what people were going to think. I did not were going to think. I did not ‘‘divinedivine’’. I simply made up . I simply made up my mind what they ought to think, and then did my best my mind what they ought to think, and then did my best to get them to think it.to get them to think it.””

Presidents can offer several rationales for not following Presidents can offer several rationales for not following public sentiment. public sentiment.

Nixon and Vietnam and the Nixon and Vietnam and the ““silent majority.silent majority.””

Doing whatDoing what’’s s ““rightright””, rather than what, rather than what’’s s ““popular.popular.”” Johnson and Johnson and civil rights, the poor.civil rights, the poor.

Presidential goals are often to Presidential goals are often to ““movemove”” public opinion. public opinion. However, reasonableness suggests that they cannot move However, reasonableness suggests that they cannot move it too far. Moving public opinion provides a quintessential it too far. Moving public opinion provides a quintessential test of a presidenttest of a president’’s ability to lead. s ability to lead.

George Edwards book “On Deaf Ears” makes a convincing George Edwards book “On Deaf Ears” makes a convincing case that presidents cannot systematically move public case that presidents cannot systematically move public opinion.opinion.

Yet, there are critical examples through history where Yet, there are critical examples through history where presidents did move public opinion. Washington and the presidents did move public opinion. Washington and the Jay Treaty, Adams and the quasi-war with France. Jay Treaty, Adams and the quasi-war with France. Roosevelt and the New Deal. George W. Bush and the Iraq Roosevelt and the New Deal. George W. Bush and the Iraq Invasion.Invasion.

Presidents who lead, move public opinion to their Presidents who lead, move public opinion to their perspective. Presidents who facilitate simply channel perspective. Presidents who facilitate simply channel already existing public opinion into policy initiatives.already existing public opinion into policy initiatives.

Understanding Public OpinionUnderstanding Public OpinionIn order to effectively use public opinion to their In order to effectively use public opinion to their advantage, presidents have to know what public advantage, presidents have to know what public sentiment is.sentiment is.

Citizens donCitizens don’’t have crystallized and coherent views t have crystallized and coherent views on most issues. Moreover, on the details of policy on most issues. Moreover, on the details of policy they haventhey haven’’t the foggiest. It requires great effort to t the foggiest. It requires great effort to become informed on the issues. Citizens lack the become informed on the issues. Citizens lack the time, expertise, and inclination to do so.time, expertise, and inclination to do so.

Citizens have preferences only over the general Citizens have preferences only over the general contours of issues and governmental activities. A contours of issues and governmental activities. A mean and a variance exists for specific issues; mean and a variance exists for specific issues; however, citizen preferences also involve however, citizen preferences also involve aggregations of issues. aggregations of issues.

People operate more at the symbolic level than a People operate more at the symbolic level than a rational level on issues and policy. Question rational level on issues and policy. Question wording matters.wording matters.

Want a balanced budget; want all of the programs Want a balanced budget; want all of the programs currently in the federal budget. currently in the federal budget.

Want lower taxes; want no reduction in government Want lower taxes; want no reduction in government programs. programs.

Want an end to Want an end to ““big governmentbig government””; want all of the ; want all of the benefits that government currently offers, and more. benefits that government currently offers, and more.

Hate Hate ““bureaucracybureaucracy””; if ask those who have dealt ; if ask those who have dealt with the U.S. federal bureaucracy about the quality with the U.S. federal bureaucracy about the quality of their relations they overwhelmingly approve of of their relations they overwhelmingly approve of interactions with bureaucracy.interactions with bureaucracy.

James A. Stimson claims that citizens have only a James A. Stimson claims that citizens have only a nebulous sense of liberalism/ conservatism on the nebulous sense of liberalism/ conservatism on the issues. Collective public opinion has different issues. Collective public opinion has different properties than the opinions at any one time of the properties than the opinions at any one time of the collectivity. Changes occur at the margins. collectivity. Changes occur at the margins.

Measuring Public OpinionMeasuring Public Opinion

Opinion Polls-A common tool for studying and Opinion Polls-A common tool for studying and understanding public opinion is opinion polls. understanding public opinion is opinion polls. Gallup, Harris, Roper, CBS-New York Times, etc. Gallup, Harris, Roper, CBS-New York Times, etc. Presidents since Roosevelt have used pollsters. Presidents since Roosevelt have used pollsters. Presidents donPresidents don’’t typically have exclusive use of t typically have exclusive use of pollsters; too expensive; do hire outside firms and pollsters; too expensive; do hire outside firms and pollsters.pollsters.

Roper Center Roper Center http://www.ropercenter.uconn.edu/data_access/ipoll/ipoll.html

Polls have their problems.Polls have their problems.

Public opinion is nebulous and volatile on some issues. Public opinion is nebulous and volatile on some issues. When citizens donWhen citizens don’’t have strong views it is possible to get t have strong views it is possible to get a lot of variability in responses.a lot of variability in responses.

Polls donPolls don’’t always measure what the president needs to t always measure what the president needs to know. Agree/disagree, yes/no questions tell little about know. Agree/disagree, yes/no questions tell little about the details of policy and the nuances of issues.the details of policy and the nuances of issues.

Responses may reflect the particular wording of questions. Responses may reflect the particular wording of questions. If you ask about If you ask about ““welfarewelfare”” you are likely to get a different you are likely to get a different response than if you ask about the response than if you ask about the ““poor, homeless, and poor, homeless, and needyneedy””. Citizens are overwhelmingly opposed to . Citizens are overwhelmingly opposed to ““welfarewelfare””, but also overwhelmingly , but also overwhelmingly ““humanitarianhumanitarian”” in their in their desire to help the poor and homeless.desire to help the poor and homeless.

Polls are not taken in a timely fashion and when Polls are not taken in a timely fashion and when presidents need them when taken by independent polling presidents need them when taken by independent polling organizations. Yet public opinion is dynamic.organizations. Yet public opinion is dynamic.

Election ResultsElection Results

Presidents often attempt to claim a mandate based on Presidents often attempt to claim a mandate based on the presidential election. Yet elections are aggregations the presidential election. Yet elections are aggregations of preferences and do not constitute mandates on of preferences and do not constitute mandates on particular issues.particular issues.

Problems with using election results:Problems with using election results:

Voters may approve of candidates, but not have opinions on Voters may approve of candidates, but not have opinions on particular issues or policies. Symbols are more important in particular issues or policies. Symbols are more important in elections, as well as party id.elections, as well as party id.

Voters often do not know candidateVoters often do not know candidate’’s stands on the issues.s stands on the issues.

Candidates have an incentive to not be clear on the issues and Candidates have an incentive to not be clear on the issues and policies they support. Downsian model.policies they support. Downsian model.

The election reflects the views of only part of the electorate; The election reflects the views of only part of the electorate; those who turned out; those who voted for the candidate. those who turned out; those who voted for the candidate. Does the elected have the obligation to represent all or only Does the elected have the obligation to represent all or only the winning coalition.the winning coalition.

The president may not know what the publicThe president may not know what the public’’s views are, even s views are, even after an election. after an election.

What does the election mean? Reagan in 1980 claimed that What does the election mean? Reagan in 1980 claimed that citizens were favorable to the message of reducing citizens were favorable to the message of reducing ““big big governmentgovernment”” and and ““getting the government off the backs of getting the government off the backs of states and citizensstates and citizens””. However, they were not favorable toward . However, they were not favorable toward reducing environmental protection, equal employment reducing environmental protection, equal employment opportunity, consumer protection, anti-trust regulation, etc.? opportunity, consumer protection, anti-trust regulation, etc.? In other words, election outcomes do not produce a clear In other words, election outcomes do not produce a clear message for the president. Reagan was unsuccessful in both message for the president. Reagan was unsuccessful in both reducing the size of government and diminishing government reducing the size of government and diminishing government regulation.regulation. Election results are a rather tenuous way to gauge public Election results are a rather tenuous way to gauge public opinion.opinion.

Mail from the Public-The White House receives several Mail from the Public-The White House receives several million pieces of mail annually, including email. All are million pieces of mail annually, including email. All are answered by someone. The White House staff typically answered by someone. The White House staff typically will prepare a synopsis of public views for the president. will prepare a synopsis of public views for the president. Is the mail a random sample? Skewed toward activists; Is the mail a random sample? Skewed toward activists; those who have intense feelings on the issues. those who have intense feelings on the issues.

http://www.whitehouse.gov/contact/submit-questions-and-comments

Presidents have a lot of trouble understanding public Presidents have a lot of trouble understanding public opinion. Even if they could understand public approval opinion. Even if they could understand public approval it is not clear what it means. It is extremely volatile. it is not clear what it means. It is extremely volatile.

Presidents seek a favorable job approval rating from the public. Presidents seek a favorable job approval rating from the public. Job approval translates into power along various dimensions, Job approval translates into power along various dimensions, including in Congress and with regard to controlling the general including in Congress and with regard to controlling the general agenda of the media and Congress. It generates respect for agenda of the media and Congress. It generates respect for presidential leadership.presidential leadership.

Aggregate approval of the presidentAggregate approval of the president’’s job approval is dynamic. s job approval is dynamic. For this reason it may not be very useful to simply look at For this reason it may not be very useful to simply look at averages over an entire term. averages over an entire term.

However, here is a table from the Gallup site reporting However, here is a table from the Gallup site reporting averages for each president since Truman. averages for each president since Truman.

http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-http://www.gallup.com/poll/116677/presidential-approval-ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx ratings-gallup-historical-statistics-trends.aspx

Public Approval of Presidential Job Public Approval of Presidential Job PerformancePerformance

Five presidents since WWII have averaged Five presidents since WWII have averaged approval less than 50 percent over their entire approval less than 50 percent over their entire terms, Truman, Nixon, Ford, Carter, and George terms, Truman, Nixon, Ford, Carter, and George W. Bush. However, this set of averages can be W. Bush. However, this set of averages can be misleading since there can be substantial misleading since there can be substantial variations on a month to month basis. variations on a month to month basis.

The averages hide substantial variation within The averages hide substantial variation within presidencies that are significant to presidencies that are significant to understanding the presidentunderstanding the president’’s job approval.s job approval.

Here are graphs of presidential job approval Here are graphs of presidential job approval since World War II.since World War II.

Gallup, Roper Center Approval

• http://www.gallup.com/poll/124922/Presidential-Approval-Center.aspx

• http://webapps.ropercenter.uconn.edu/CFIDE/roper/presidential/webroot/presidential_rating.cfm

• http://www.presidency.ucsb.edu/data/popularity.php?pres=&sort=time&direct=DESC&Submit=DISPLAY#axzz2j8pOtHsV

Party identification. Research shows that there is a Party identification. Research shows that there is a partisan basis for public approval of the president. partisan basis for public approval of the president. Democrats overwhelmingly approve of a Democratic Democrats overwhelmingly approve of a Democratic president; Republicans overwhelmingly approve of president; Republicans overwhelmingly approve of Republican presidents.Republican presidents.

Polarization along party lines in approval/disapproval. Polarization along party lines in approval/disapproval. The public was especially polarized along party lines The public was especially polarized along party lines during the Reagan administration. On average the during the Reagan administration. On average the polarization has been about 40 percent; during Reagan it polarization has been about 40 percent; during Reagan it was about 52 percent. Now it is even higher. was about 52 percent. Now it is even higher.

Independents represent a group that increase the Independents represent a group that increase the variability in approval for the president. Independents variability in approval for the president. Independents tend to be less polarized in approval/disapproval for the tend to be less polarized in approval/disapproval for the president running about 20 percent from both Democrats president running about 20 percent from both Democrats and Republicans.and Republicans.

How do people arrive at their How do people arrive at their evaluations of the president? evaluations of the president?

Positivity bias-Presidents are almost always evaluated Positivity bias-Presidents are almost always evaluated positively at the beginning of their terms. Citizens give positively at the beginning of their terms. Citizens give them the benefit fo the doubt. Moreover, approval tends them the benefit fo the doubt. Moreover, approval tends to go up substantially between the time of the election to go up substantially between the time of the election and over the first few months. Show graph again here.and over the first few months. Show graph again here.

Comparison of Electoral Percentages and First Post-Inaugural Approval

President Popular Vote in First Election %

Approval in First Post-Inaugural Poll %

Eisenhower 55 69

Kennedy 50 72

Johnson 61 71

Nixon 43 60

Carter 50 66

Reagan 51 51

Bush I 53 51

ClintonBush II

4348

5860

Obama 53 68

Source: Gallup Polls

Persistence of approval-Honeymoon period in approval Persistence of approval-Honeymoon period in approval ratings is variable with the presidency.ratings is variable with the presidency.

Long term decline in approval- Long term decline in approval- During each presidency there is a tendency During each presidency there is a tendency

toward decline, toward decline, There is also a longer term decline across There is also a longer term decline across

presidents. Trust in government after Vietnam, presidents. Trust in government after Vietnam, Watergate. Watergate.

There is a relatively constant factor for most presidents There is a relatively constant factor for most presidents that explains the mean level of approval. Things like that explains the mean level of approval. Things like personality, style, perceived ability, etc. enter into this. personality, style, perceived ability, etc. enter into this. However, these things are not dynamic. Compare However, these things are not dynamic. Compare Kennedy to Nixon for example.Kennedy to Nixon for example.

The Economy- Clinton’s mantra was “It’s the economy, stupid!” The Economy- Clinton’s mantra was “It’s the economy, stupid!” The state of the nation’s economy is the single most important The state of the nation’s economy is the single most important factor driving presidential job approval. Presidents are held factor driving presidential job approval. Presidents are held accountable for the economy, regardless of whether they accountable for the economy, regardless of whether they inherited a good or bad one.inherited a good or bad one.

Rally events- Dramatic events affect the largest dynamic in Rally events- Dramatic events affect the largest dynamic in presidential approval. Things like the Oklahoma City Bombing, presidential approval. Things like the Oklahoma City Bombing, the Persian Gulf War, the bombing of the U.S. embassy in the Persian Gulf War, the bombing of the U.S. embassy in Lebanon, the assassination attempt on Reagan in 1981, the Lebanon, the assassination attempt on Reagan in 1981, the invasion of Grenada, the negative images flowing from invasion of Grenada, the negative images flowing from Somalia, September 11Somalia, September 11thth, the invasion of Iraq., the invasion of Iraq.

Scandal may affect approval. However, it may not always Scandal may affect approval. However, it may not always affect it in the logical direction. Watergate and Iran-Contra affect it in the logical direction. Watergate and Iran-Contra depressed the approval respectively of Nixon and Reagan. In depressed the approval respectively of Nixon and Reagan. In contrast, Lewinsky-gate either increased or had no effect on contrast, Lewinsky-gate either increased or had no effect on ClintonClinton’’s approval.s approval.

Presidential honesty, integrity, intellect, leadership Presidential honesty, integrity, intellect, leadership capability. These are all dynamic and may enter into the capability. These are all dynamic and may enter into the way the public perceives the president. Nixon and way the public perceives the president. Nixon and Watergate. Carter was perceived as a weak leader Watergate. Carter was perceived as a weak leader when he had no ready solution to the Iran Hostage crisis. when he had no ready solution to the Iran Hostage crisis. Bush I was perceived as vacillating when he went back Bush I was perceived as vacillating when he went back on his pledge of on his pledge of ““no new taxes.no new taxes.”” Whitewater and media Whitewater and media coverage of various other issues hurt perceptions of coverage of various other issues hurt perceptions of Clinton along this dimension. Bush II was generally Clinton along this dimension. Bush II was generally perceived as dishonest in the reasons for invading Iraq. perceived as dishonest in the reasons for invading Iraq. Obama has been perceived as a weak leader, probably Obama has been perceived as a weak leader, probably due to his inability to get things relating to the economy due to his inability to get things relating to the economy approved in a partisan Congress. approved in a partisan Congress.

Issues may affect approval. For an issue to affect Issues may affect approval. For an issue to affect approval it must beapproval it must be Salience- The issue must be important to large Salience- The issue must be important to large

numbers of people. Economy, environment, foreign numbers of people. Economy, environment, foreign policy events.policy events.

Valence-Within issue areas, bad news may outweigh Valence-Within issue areas, bad news may outweigh good news in capturing the publicgood news in capturing the public’’s attention. Bad s attention. Bad news about the economy has more impact than good news about the economy has more impact than good news.news.

Responsiblity- people need to see the president as Responsiblity- people need to see the president as responsible for the issue for it to affect approval. responsible for the issue for it to affect approval. Presidential performance on the issue must be seen Presidential performance on the issue must be seen as responsible. as responsible.

Summary: Public approval of the president may be a Summary: Public approval of the president may be a result of many factors. However, quantitative scholars result of many factors. However, quantitative scholars do a fair job of explaining the aggregate series that we do a fair job of explaining the aggregate series that we showed earlier using only two variables, economic showed earlier using only two variables, economic performance and rally events.performance and rally events.