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The Precourt Institutefor Energy Efficiency: An Overview
Presentation at:Global Technology Strategy Project
Technical ReviewMay 28, 2008
Presentation by:James Sweeney/John Weyant
Precourt Institute for Energy EfficiencyDepartment of Management Science and Engineering
Stanford University
Precourt Institute• A research and analysis institute at Stanford• Established in October 2006• Initial funding: $30 million pledge by Jay Precourt• Mission
– To improve opportunities for and implementation of energy efficient technologies, systems, and practices, with an emphasis on economically attractive deployment
– Focus on the demand side of energy markets– Energy efficiency: economically efficient reductions
in energy use (or energy intensity)
Advisory Council• George Shultz, Council Chair, Thomas W. and Susan B. Ford
Distinguished Fellow: Hoover Institution • Jay Precourt, Council Vice Chair, Chair and CEO, Hermes Consolidated• John Boesel, President and CEO: WestStart-CALSTART • Joseph Desmond, Former Chair, California Energy Commission• TJ Glauthier, TJG Energy Associates, LLC • Agatha Precourt, Consumer Marketing/Brand Management Consultant • Debra Reed, President and Chief Executive Officer, San Diego Gas &
Electric and Southern California Gas Co. • Burton Richter, Director Emeritus, Stanford Linear Accelerator Center;
Nobel Laureate, Physics • Ben Schwegler, Vice President / Chief Scientist: Walt Disney
Imagineering • Byron Sher, Former California State Senator • Erik Straser, Partner: Mohr, Davidow Ventures • Bill Valentine, Chairman of the Board: HOK • Ward Woods, Retired President and CEO of Bessemer Securities• Jane Woodward, CEO: Mineral Acquisition Partners
Research Clusters• Buildings:
– Commercial and residential building design, construction, operations, and embedded technologies, including building energy models and other design tools
• Transportation/Vehicles: – Technology and regulation of passenger cars and light duty
trucks; transportation systems analysis; vehicle electrification• Systems:
– Systems analysis, such as micro-grid/utility/home generation linkages, electricity storage/home generation/usage/real time metering tradeoffs, grid/vehicle/home electricity interactions, transport/generation/usage location choices
• Behavior: – Behavioral research, analysis, and intervention
• Modeling: – Economic modeling of the energy system, institutions, and
economic impacts, including process modeling of use • Policy:
– Policy design, policy analysis, individual faculty advocacy; pricing policies, policy interventions, R&D policy
U.S. Energy Consumption, 2005
40
23 23
8
3 30.4 0.06 0.15
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
PetroleumProducts
Coal Natural Gas NuclearElectricPower
HydroelectricPower
Biomass GeothermalEnergy
Solar Energy Wind Energy
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
U.S. Energy Usage: 2005
Source: EIA, Annual Energy Review
0
5
10
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005
Qua
drill
ion
Btu
Through Electricity: Res, Ind, CommPrimary: Res, Ind, CommTransportation: Primary
US Primary Energy and Electricity Use by Sectors
Energy Efficiency:
Economically Efficient Reductions in Energy Use
Intensity
• Environmental Protection• Global Climate Change
• Security• Oil/International vulnerability• Vulnerability of infrastructure to terrorism,
natural disaster, or human error• Economics
• Prices of electricity, gasoline, natural gas• Price volatility: oil, natural gas, wholesale
electricity• Improved corporate profit, household budgets
Policy Drivers for Energy Efficiency
Increased EconomicEfficiency
Decreased Energy Use
Reduced EconomicEfficiency
Increased Energy Use
Economically Efficient Energy Intensification
Energy Efficiency Improvement
Inefficient Energy Saving
Waste
Increased EconomicEfficiency
Decreased Energy Use
Increased commercial space
Gasoline Price Controls
Compact Fluorescent Penetration
LED Traffic Lights
Energy Cost Labeling
Gasoline Rationing
Incan-descent Lighting
Congestion Pricing
Personal Computer Penetration
Optimized Building Construction
Overly Strict Building Standards
PigouvianEnergy Tax
Increased EconomicEfficiency
Decreased Energy Use“Smart”Regional Land Development
Reformed CAFE Standards
Many Rapid Transit Systems
Efficient AC-DC Converters
Halt SUV Sales
Airline Deregulation
Energy Audits
Hybrid Gas-Electric Vehicles
High Definition TV
Plug-In Hybrids (Now)
Plug-In Hybrids (Future)
LED General Lighting (Now)
LED General Lighting (Future)
Internet Growth
“Smart Buildings”Controls
Economic development
LED Task Lighting (Now)
Accessible Business Travel
Old appliance replacement
Behavioral Change:Program Thermostat,Lights, Tire pressure,
Driving Patterns
Appliance Efficiency Standards
Energy Efficient Buildings Research Projects Team Title
John Haymaker; RA: Caroline Clevenger
Importance Process: Improving Energy Efficient AEC Decision Making Through Statistical, Model‐Based, Search of Multidisciplinary Impacts
Andrea Goldsmith, Stephen Boyd, Hamid Aghajan; RA: Itai Katz
Wireless Sensor Networks Technology for Smart Buildings
Martin Fischer, Vladimir Bazjanac (BNL); RA: Tobias Maile
Conditions for Comparison of Predicted and Measured Operational Performance of HVAC Systems
John Haymaker; RA: Benjamin Welle
Process Integration and Design Optimization in Support of Energy Efficient, High Performance Building Design
Bob Tatum; RA: Brian Gilligan
Increasing the Effectiveness of Investigation, Definition, and Execution of Retrofit Projects to Increase Building Energy Efficiency
Sarah Billington, Curtis Frank
Energy Efficient Biodegradable Foams for Structural Insulated Panels
Research Projects Now Underway
Research Projects Now Underway
Energy Efficient Behavior Research Projects
Team Title
Carrie Armel; RAs: Adam Bad Wound, Benjamin Dudek
Behavior and Decision‐Making Research Related to Energy Efficiency and Climate Change
Research Projects Now UnderwayEnergy Policy Research Projects
Team TitleFrank Wolak; RA: Shaun McRae
Designing Mechanisms to Involve Financial Demand in Wholesale Electricity Markets
Lawrence Goulder; RA: Ring Zhou
Analysis of US Policies to Improve Automobile Fuel‐Economy and Reduce Gasoline Consumption and Analysis of US Policies to Reduce Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Jim Sweeney, John WeyantRAs: Raghu Naga, Tien‐TienChan, Amul Sathe, Kenneth Gillingham, Amy Guy, Arianna Lambie, Anant Sudarshan
Contributing to CARB's AB 32 Cost‐Effectiveness Determination
PI: Jim SweeneyRA: Amy Guy
Analyzing Risk and Return Including Energy Efficiency and Other Enabling Technologies in Clean Tech Investment Portfolios
Research Projects Now Underway
Energy Efficient Systems Research Projects Team Title
Christopher Edwards; RA: A.P. Simpson
Development of a Thermodynamically Based Method of Incorporating Environmental Impact in Decision Making for Energy
Mark Jacobson, Cristina Archer; RAs: Mike Dvorak, Elaine Hart, Gerard Ketefian
Analyzing and Optimizing Supply and Demand of Intermittent Renewable Electricity through Transmission Load Flow Modeling
Research Projects Now UnderwayEnergy Modeling Research Projects
Team TitleJim Sweeney; RA: PedramMokrian
Energy Economics and Policy, Stochastic Modeling of Electric Systems
Jim Sweeney; RA: Jiyong Eom Incentives and Politics of Utility‐Based Energy Efficiency Programs in California
Jim Sweeney; RA: Brad Powley Projecting LED Competitiveness
Jim Sweeney; RA: AnantSudarshan
Deconstructing the Rosenfeld Curve
Workshops/ConferencesCompleted• 2007 Energy Summit, June 2007. Jointly with Silicon Valley
Leadership Group• Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change. Jointly with ACEEE,
California Institute for Energy and Environment , November 2007• Energy Crossroads. (Stanford Student-Organized Event, partial
support). Spring 2007; Spring 2008• Energy Efficiency Workshop, with Snowmass Workshop on
Integrated Assessment of Global Climate Change, July 2007Future• Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change. Jointly with ACEEE,
California Institute for Energy and Environment, November 16-19 2008• Energy Summit. Jointly with Silicon Valley Leadership Group, July
11, 2008
Convening Organizations•American Council for an Energy-Efficient Economy•California Institute for Energy and Environment, University of California •Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency, Stanford University
Behavior, Energy, and Climate Change Conference
National conference focused on understanding behavior and decision-making of individuals and organizations and using that knowledge to help accelerate our transition to an energy-efficient and low-carbon economy.
November 16 – 19 , 2008. Hyatt Hotel, Sacramento, CA
More information: PIEE.Stanford.edu
Example:Lighting as Share of U.S. Electricity
• Lighting use– About 800 Terawatt hours (1012) per year
• Electricity Generation– 3815 Terawatt hours per year
• Lighting is 21% of all electricity use
Residential 900 Lumen Lighting 20 year Lifecycle Cost (Now)
$0
$10
$20
$30
$40
$50
$60
$70
$80
Incand CFL LED
Cost of CapitalCost of MaintenanceElectricity Cost
Commercial 900 Lumen Lighting 20 year Lifecycle Cost (Now)
$0
$50
$100
$150
$200
$250
$300
$350
$400
$450
$500
Incand CFL LED
Cost of CapitalCost of MaintenanceElectricity Cost
Energy Implications of 100% LEDs@ 120 Lm/wt System Efficacy
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Commercial Residential Industrial Outdoor
TWhr
/yr
Current MixAll LED @ 120 lm/wt
Economy-Wide Impacts of All LED• Lighting use: 21% of all electricity use
– All LED saves about 60% of this electricity in long run:• 13% of all electricity use – after all adjustments
– Adjustment time:• How long until LED system efficacy reaches 120
lm/wt? 5 years? • 50% adoption: 15 years afterwards?
– 50% adoption will save 6.5% of all electricity use• Electricity impact: Perhaps 6.5% reduction in 20 years• Electricity cost impact
– Total cost of U.S. electricity• Retail: $300 Billion per year• Variable Costs: say $200 Billion per year
– 6.5% of $300 Billion dollars = $20 Billion per year– 6.5% of $200 Billion dollars = $13 Billion per year
The Rosenfeld Effect Project
Rosenfeld Curve Decomposition
=Approx. 23% of the Gap
The AB 32 ProjectCO2 Reduction Supply Curve
00 50 100
150
200
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0
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Total CO2 Reductions (Million Metric Tons CO2 Equivalent)
US$
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Ton
CO
2e
Precourt Institute for Energy Efficiency
http://piee.stanford.edu
The End