The Power of Dynamic The Power of Dynamic ThinkingThinking

Reaching Across Boundaries in Reaching Across Boundaries in Default AversionDefault Aversion

Will that doctor be sued?Will that doctor be sued?

What is the number one determinant – What is the number one determinant – identified by statisticians and actuaries – identified by statisticians and actuaries – as to whether or not a doctor will be sued? as to whether or not a doctor will be sued?

Keeping It Simple Isn’t Always RightKeeping It Simple Isn’t Always Right

Doctor Treats PatientDoctor Treats Patient Doctor Makes A Mistake

Doctor Makes A Mistake Doctor SuedDoctor Sued

Static Model:Static Model:

Will that doctor be sued?Will that doctor be sued?

Q:Q: What is the number one determinant – What is the number one determinant – identified by statisticians and actuaries – identified by statisticians and actuaries – as to whether or not a doctor will be sued? as to whether or not a doctor will be sued?

A:A: The amount of time that a doctor spends The amount of time that a doctor spends with that patient with that patient Gladwell, M. (2007). Gladwell, M. (2007). Blink: The Power of Thinking Blink: The Power of Thinking

Without ThinkingWithout Thinking

Dynamic ThinkingDynamic Thinking

Static thinking is a formalized process that depicts Static thinking is a formalized process that depicts events but does not address the underlying forces events but does not address the underlying forces (dynamics) that may have an impact on that event or (dynamics) that may have an impact on that event or series of events.  series of events. 

Dynamic thinking is the study of the interconnected Dynamic thinking is the study of the interconnected relationships on an event and the impact of those relationships on an event and the impact of those interactions upon the outcomes of the system. interactions upon the outcomes of the system.

Keeping It Simple Isn’t Always RightKeeping It Simple Isn’t Always Right

Doctor Treats PatientDoctor Treats Patient

Doctor Makes A Mistake

Doctor Makes A Mistake

Doctor SuedDoctor Sued

Dynamic Model:Dynamic Model:

Doctor Builds A Relationship w/ Patient

Doctor Builds A Relationship w/ Patient

Patient EvaluatesMalpractice Relative

To Relationship

Patient EvaluatesMalpractice Relative

To Relationship

Doctor Not SuedDoctor Not Sued

Static vs. Dynamic Thinking and PolicyStatic vs. Dynamic Thinking and Policy

Static Model: Static Model: Policies that give patients less Policies that give patients less face-time with the doctorface-time with the doctor

Dynamic Model: Dynamic Model: Policies that don’t just focus Policies that don’t just focus on fewer mistakes, but that focus on the on fewer mistakes, but that focus on the patientpatient

Default Prevention: Default Prevention: Static vs. DynamicStatic vs. Dynamic

Effective default prevention is a Effective default prevention is a dynamic process dynamic process

We cannot take a picture of it We cannot take a picture of it because there are several because there are several interrelated, moving partsinterrelated, moving parts

One-Minute Recap of One-Minute Recap of Previous SymposiaPrevious Symposia

Session 1: Session 1: Provided context to this discussion Provided context to this discussion by telling us about the state-of-mind of our by telling us about the state-of-mind of our studentsstudents

Session 2: Session 2: Gave us specific information about Gave us specific information about our students’ borrowing habits as well as a our students’ borrowing habits as well as a fundamental basis for institutional research fundamental basis for institutional research

Static Default Prevention Model Static Default Prevention Model

Student Takes Out Loan

Borrower Goes 270 Days W/out

Payment

Borrower Defaults

Static Default Prevention Model Static Default Prevention Model

Student Takes Out Loan

Borrower Goes 270 Days W/out

PaymentBorrower Defaults

Student Borrower Drops Out of School

What are the dynamic forces that What are the dynamic forces that affect student loan default? affect student loan default?

Failing classes: positive correlation with defaultFailing classes: positive correlation with default

Number of credit hours (mixed results): negative correlation Number of credit hours (mixed results): negative correlation with defaultwith default

Whether or not they work outside of school (mixed results): Whether or not they work outside of school (mixed results): negative correlation with defaultnegative correlation with default

GPA: negative correlation with defaultGPA: negative correlation with default

Feelings about school/education: negative correlation with Feelings about school/education: negative correlation with defaultdefault

Graduate: negative correlation with defaultGraduate: negative correlation with default

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

““Student Success” Student Success”

1. Increase year-to-year retention

2. Increase degree completion

3. Increase on-time completion rates

Examining Policies With Examining Policies With Dynamics In Mind Dynamics In Mind

Default Aversion PolicyDefault Aversion PolicyStudent

Examining Policies With Examining Policies With Dynamics In Mind Dynamics In Mind

Why So Difficult? Why So Difficult?

Follow the Money – It’s All About Access Follow the Money – It’s All About Access • College readiness dollars come to less than College readiness dollars come to less than

one percent of all other federal grant and one percent of all other federal grant and campus-based fundscampus-based funds

Percentage of students that require Percentage of students that require remediation is up to around 60 percentremediation is up to around 60 percent

Access v. SuccessAccess v. Success Country Participation Completion

New Zealand 89 54

Sweden 79 60

Finland 73 71

Australia 70 67

United States 63 54

Netherlands 56 76

UK 52 78

Korea 48 83

Ireland 44 83

Spain 44 74

Japan 43 91

Austria 37 55

Germany 37 73

Belgium 34 74

Greece 33 79

Access v. SuccessAccess v. Success Country Participation Completion

Japan 43 91

Korea 48 83

Ireland 44 83

Greece 33 79

UK 52 78

Netherlands 56 76

Spain 44 74

Belgium 34 74

Germany 37 73

Finland 73 71

Australia 70 67

Sweden 79 60

Austria 37 55

New Zealand 89 54

United States 63 54

College Success College Success

1. Financial aid office can play a big part

2. Bridge Programs and the Financial Aid Office

3. Goals: Raising aspirations Navigating the admissions/financial aid processes Easing the transition during the first year

Examining Policies And Plans Examining Policies And Plans With Dynamics In Mind With Dynamics In Mind

Consider whether policies are Consider whether policies are well designedwell designed to achieve their to achieve their intended effectsintended effects

Adopt policies that Adopt policies that maximize net positive effectsmaximize net positive effects on key on key objectivesobjectives

Design policies that Design policies that minimize negative effectsminimize negative effects on key on key objectivesobjectives

Adopt a Adopt a mix of policiesmix of policies that in combination produce positive that in combination produce positive effectseffects

Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2007) Western Interstate Commission for Higher Education. (2007) Strategies for Improving Student Success in Postsecondary EducationStrategies for Improving Student Success in Postsecondary Education

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

Student / School Relationships Student / School Relationships

Seller Questionnaire: Please answer the following questions: Seller Questionnaire: Please answer the following questions: How much would you sell your $2,500 car for to the following How much would you sell your $2,500 car for to the following people? people?

How much to a stranger?How much to a stranger? How much to a friend? How much to a friend? How much to a brother or sister that needed it?How much to a brother or sister that needed it?

How much to a nasty neighbor?How much to a nasty neighbor?

Student / School Relationships Student / School Relationships

When there is a relationship developed, the trading When there is a relationship developed, the trading range between two people, two organizations, or an range between two people, two organizations, or an organization and a person increases. organization and a person increases.

No Trade

Trade

Trade

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

Justin Draeger – National Association of Student Financial Aid Administrators

The Student Transition The Student Transition

Random Exploration Transition Phase Establishment Phase New Beginning Phase

Focused Exploration Tentative Choices Commitment

Mary Stuart Hunter, James S. Gahagan, & Molly A. Schaller

How is the Relationship? How is the Relationship?

NASFAA found that 51 percent of FAOs are tracking customer relationships

54 percent of institutions have mechanisms to do so