THE POLICY PERSPECTIVE ON DEVELOPING AN INTEGRATED STATISTICS PROGRAMME IN SUPPORT

OF 2008 SNA IMPLEMENTATION

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Presented by

Hazel CorbinStatistics Adviser, ECCB

Palm Haven Hotel Saint Lucia3 to 7 February, 2014

OUTLINE

• Integrated Economic Statistics• The needs of ECCU Policymakers • National Strategy for Statistics• Core Set of Indicators Needed • Linking of the SNA Strategy to National

Strategy• Conclusion

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Integrated Economic Statistics

• Integrated Economic Statistics (IES) provide a consistent and reliable assessment of a country’s economic activity for policy and analytical uses.

• Guidelines are based on Internationally adopted standards

• The principles include the design of strategic plans for integration of micro and macro data

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Integrated Economic Statistics

• Policymakers need IES that are consistent with other economic statistics and indicators produced by NSS.

• The needs of policymakers should be the basis of a country’s plans for developing better IEA.

• Some of the benefits of IES are:– consistency between short-term indicators and

macroeconomic data on the state of the economy– consistency across sectors in depicting trends– consistency across countries for key measures such as

GDP, inflation, international trade etc.

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Integrated Economic Statistics

• Some of the benefits of IES (continued):– transparency and consistency in concepts and definitions– greater accuracy in economic data through reconciliation– reduction in reporting burden for business respondents– more relevant statistics that quickly address user needs

• The challenges of IES include:- Need for resources to be invested in adopting statistical

standards

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The Statistical Domains Covered in Integrated Economic Statistics

Domain 1. Demographic and social statistics1.2 Labour1.5 Income and consumption

Domain 2. Economic statistics2.1 Macroeconomic statistics2.2 Economic accounts2.3 Business statistics2.4 Sectoral statistics2.4.1 Agriculture, forestry, fisheries2.4.2 Energy2.4.3 Mining, manufacturing, construction2.4.4 Transport2.4.5 Tourism2.4.6 Banking, insurance, financial statistics2.5 Government finance, fiscal and public sector statistics2.6 International trade and balance of payments2.7 Prices2.8 Labour costs2.9 Science, technology and innovation

Domain 3. Environment and multi-domain statistics3.1 Environment

Domain 4. Methodology of data collection, processing, dissemination and analysisDomain 5. Strategic and managerial issues of official statistics

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ECCU COUNTRIES FACE A NUMBER OF COMMON CHALLENGES

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Weak macro framework: Insufficient growth

High debt Limited fiscal space

Public Sector weaknesses

Weak financial resilience

Unfavorable investment climate

Low competitiveness and productivity

Dependence on a few economic sectors

Infrastructure gaps High cost of energy Low connectivity

Mismatches between skills and job market

needs

Fragile social resilience

Vulnerability to Natural Disasters

POLICY ISSUES

• The four major challenges– 1. Financial Stability, Consolidation and

Development – 2. Debt Management– 3. Fiscal Reform; and– 4. Growth and Competitiveness

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• The public debt to GDP across the region has averaged 84.3 per cent of GDP for the last 10 years.

• A consequence of the persistent fiscal deficits is a large public debt portfolio

• Target is debt to GDP ratio of 60 per cent by 2020

• Per capita GDP for currency union is EC$ 11,091.02

• Target is a doubling in per capita incomes by 2027

• The target for overall balance is 3 per cent of GDP

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Policy Targets

• Target of current revenue to GDP is 28 to 32 per cent of GDP

• Target for current expenditure to GDP is between 22 to 26 per cent of GDP

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Policy Targets

Resolution Strategy

• The Economic Union and Single Financial and Economic Space

• The ECCB Eight Point Stabilization and Growth Programme

• Carefully calibrated three-pronged growth strategy:

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Resolution Strategy

• Stimulus package to alleviate somewhat the decline in domestic income.

• Tourism centered industrial policy.• Seven modernising sectors

• Establishment of Objectives for growth rate, unemployment rate, poverty levels, human development indices

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High Frequency Indicators• Set 1 National Accounts• Set 2 Production and Turnover• Set 3 Price Indicators• Set 4 Labour Market Indicators• Set 5 External Sector Indicators• Set 6 Financial Sector Indicators• Set 7 General Government Sector Indicators• Set 8 Household Sector Indicators• Set 9 Non-Financial Corporations Sector Indicators• Set 10 Financial Market Indicators • Set 11 Real Estate Market Indicators• Set 12 Economic Sentiment

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Core Set of Indicators Needed

• A core set of indicators are needed in order to adequately address the challenges relating to financial stability, consolidation and development; debt management; fiscal reform; and growth and competitiveness,

• The national economic strategy will need to outline performance measures that will guide the provision of certain statistical data sets to promote evidence based decision making.

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Core Set of Indicators Needed

• An examination of a countries policies will highlight which set of core indicators are needed based on policy makers needs.

• Example in the area of growth and competiveness countries may need to supply policy makers with quarterly GDP; quarterly BOP and other short-term indicators in a timely manner in order to inform decision making.

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National Strategy For Development of Statistics

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• NSDS should form part of an overall national economic strategy. The objectives of NSDS would:– Strengthen the institutional framework of NSS and the

coordinating role of the CSO– Improve the quality and quantity of statistics in priority

areas– Improve the accessibility and dissemination of statistical

information– Mainstream statistics within the emerging framework for

monitoring and evaluation of a country’s development activities and their contribution to national targets

National Strategy For Development of Statistics

• A NSDS enables developing countries to build a reliable statistical system

• that produces the data necessary to design, implement, and monitor national development policies and programmes.

• They also help countries meet their regional and international commitments with respect to statistics (Millennium Development Goals, regional integration processes, etc.)

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National Strategy For Development of Statistics

• In other words, a NSDS is a platform that allows statistical activities, capacity development, and infrastructure improvements to be planned.

• This platform also enables stakeholders in the NSS (sectoral ministries, central bank, national

statistical office, etc.) as well as technical and financial partners to co-ordinate their efforts through appropriate mechanisms.

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Linking of SNA Strategy to National Strategy

• National Accounts are key indicators for describing the national economy and interactions with the international economy

• The statement of strategy on the implementation of 2008 SNA high level goals are:– Improving the scope, quality and timeliness of NA statistics– Minimizing response burden to data suppliers– Increasing the use of administrative data – Achieving cost effectiveness using best practices– Raising public awareness and use of NA and economic

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Linking of SNA Strategy to National Strategy

• Specific goals are:– To compile national accounts according to the SNA

implementation, comprising the minimum required data set

– To develop a national central data hub for short term economic statistics to facilitate the early detection of changes in economic activity as reflected by the national accounts

The SNA strategy should be linked to the National Strategy to ensure that the provision of any data aligns with the countries overall statistical needs to measure the effectiveness of their policies.

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Conclusion

• Statistical agenda and priorities should be policy relevant and remain policy relevant over time.

• Engagement of different stakeholders at the national and regional policy community as well as development partners is key in fostering regular data collection programmes.

• Such collaboration will ensure timely and coherent statistics that provide relevant information to policy makers and the public at large.

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THE ENDThank you for your attention

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