3/12/16

1

1

ThePoli)csofSpacePolicy

TheTechnologicalFron)ersofSpace

MITWashingtonSeminarSeries

Washington,DC

March8,2016

Dr. Scott Pace George Washington University

Elliott School of International Affairs 1957 E Street, NW - Suite 403

Washington, DC 20052 space1@gwu.edu

(202) 994-7248

2

Ra)onalesforSpaceflight–RogerLaunius

•  Human Destiny/survival of the species –  The image of the frontier

•  Geopolitical/national pride and prestige –  Foreign policy and self-image

•  National Security and military application –  From the Cold War to Terrorism

•  Economic competitiveness and satellite applications –  Information Technology to New Space

•  Scientific discovery and understanding –  Robots, Humans, and both

3/12/16

2

3

U.S.Na)onalSpacePolicy

•  Recognizes three distinct sectors of space activity:

• National Security (military, intelligence)

• Commercial (satellite communication)

• Civil (including both scientific research and services such as weather forecasting)

•  The functions performed by each can be organized along a spectrum, depending on whether they are driven by government or markets

Satellite Communication (Commercial)

Public Safety (Civil)

Space-based Weapons (National Security)

SpaceApplica/ons

TeleComm

OilExplora/on

Trucking&Shipping

Surveying&Mapping

PrecisionAgriculture

GPSenablesadiversearrayofapplica)ons

PowerGrids

IntelligentVehicles

NextGenTransit

Opera/ons

DiseaseControl

PersonalNaviga/on

Fishing & Boa/ng

3/12/16

3

Science Missions (current & future) 64/90 are international – Dec. 2015

6

Key Governance Documents for NASA

Na/onalSpacePolicyJune2010

NASAStrategicPlan

AnnualBudgetRequests

Na/onalAeronau/cs&SpaceActof1958

P.L.85-568July1958

NASAAuthoriza/onAct

of2010P.L.111-267

AnnualAppropria/ons

Na/onalSpaceTransporta/onPolicy

November2013

Na/onalAcademyofSciencesReports

Augus/neCommission2009

3/12/16

4

7

16000.0

17000.0

18000.0

19000.0

20000.0

21000.0

22000.0

23000.0

24000.0

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020

MillionsofCurrentYearDollars

FiscalYear

NASAEnactedandPresident'sBudgetRequests

EnactedBudgets

FY2010NASARequest

FY2011NASARequest

FY2012NASARequest

FY2013NASARequest

FY2014NASARequest

FY2015NASARequest

FY2016NASARequest

FY1992NASA

Budgetin2014

dollars

3/12/16

5

3/12/16

6

SpaceEntrepreneurs

SpaceX

BlueOrigin

BigelowAerospace

PlanetaryResources

Public and Private Sector Space

Revenues

1.  Ground terminal and Equipment

2.  Direct-to-Home Television 3.  U.S. DoD Space 4.  Satellite Services (FSS &

MSS) 5.  NASA 6.  ESA 7.  Commercial Satellite

Manufacturing 8.  Russia 9.  Japan 10. China 11.  Satellite Radio 12. Earth Observation 13. Commercial Space Launch 14.  India 15. NOAA

12 Space Foundation Report 2012

3/12/16

7

GlobalSpaceTrends

•  GrowingPrivateSectorSpaceInvestmentsandCapabili/es–  Smallsatellites–  ITanddatadrivers

•  AChangingSpaceIndustrialBase–  Globaliza/on

•  SpaceGovernance–  IncreasingnumberofState

andnon-Stateactors–  Integra/onvs.Fragmenta/on

•  ThreatstoCompe//veness–  SupplyChainDependencies

•  RD-180,Pu-238–  RegulatoryBurdens

•  Commerciallicensing,esp.remotesensing

•  Spacespectrumprotec/on,esp.1-3GHz

•  FederalAcquisi/onSystems–  InstabilityinCivilSpace

Coopera/on•  Post-ISSuncertainty

•  ThreatsfromForeignCounterspaceCapabili/es–  China,Russia,others?

U.SSpacePolicy-2010

•  Identify Areas for Potential International Cooperation. Departments and agencies shall identify potential areas for international cooperation that may include, but are not limited to: space science; space exploration, including human space flight activities; space nuclear power to support space science and exploration; space transportation; space surveillance for debris monitoring and awareness; missile warning; Earth science and observation; environmental monitoring; satellite communications; GNSS; geospatial information products and services; disaster mitigation and relief; search and rescue; use of space for maritime domain awareness; and long-term preservation of the space environment for human activity and use. The Secretary of State, after consultation with the heads of appropriate departments and agencies, shall carry out diplomatic and public diplomacy efforts to strengthen understanding of, and support for, U.S. national space policies and programs and to encourage the foreign use of U .S . space capabilities, systems, and services.

•  Develop Transparency and Confidence-Building Measures. The United States

will pursue bilateral and multilateral transparency and confidence-building measures to encourage responsible actions in, and the peaceful use of, space. The United States will consider proposals and concepts for arms control measures if they are equitable, effectively verifiable, and enhance the national security of the United States and its allies.

14

3/12/16

8

CongestedandContested

•  2002 - Falun Gong jamming and hijacking TV on Chinese COMSATs •  2003 - Iran jams Telestar-12 & Iraqis jam GPS •  2005 - Libya reportedly jams Telestar-12 •  2007 - China tests direct-ascent anti-satellite •  2008 - Interference on Terra AM-1 & Landsat •  2009 - Iran launches experimental satellite •  2009 - Iridium 33 – COSMOS 2251 collision •  2009 - North Korea space launch attempt fails •  2010 - Chinese Interceptor test •  2010 - Iranian SATCOM jamming •  2012 - North Korea space launch succeeds •  2013 - Chinese high altitude suborbital test Egyptian Satcom jamming •  2014 - Chinese non-destructive ASAT test

CounterSpaceThreatCon/nuum

Spacecapabili/esarevitaltoU.S.na/onalandglobalinterest,butfaceawiderangeofmaturingthreatsandchallenges

•  Congested-increasedaccesstoanduseofspace–orbitalcrowding;spectrum

compe//on;debris;collisionrisk•  Contested-Adversariescon/nuetoseekmeanstodenyspaceadvantages

16

Latest and Fifth Space Mission Area: Space Situational Awareness (SSA)

3/12/16

9

17

SpaceSurveillance&OrbitalDebris

•  Approximately 21,000 objects larger than 10 cm being tracked in 2012

•  Collision Avoidance for the International Space Station and other major assets •  Surveillance of Asteroids & Comets for science and warning – �potentially hazardous objects� •  NASA estimated over 35,000 pieces of orbital debris larger than 1 cm from 2007 China ASAT test

COPUOSPlenaryMee/ng2015•  Guidelinesforthelong-term

sustainabilityofouterspaceac/vi/es

•  ControversyovernewMembers,Workshops

3/12/16

10

Interna)onalSpaceCodeofConduct

•  BasedonEuropeanUnionProposal–  Posi/veU.S.recep/ontoSept2010proposal–  Someproblems,e.g.,“securityguarantees”

•  Voluntary,non-bindingagreementtoimprovespacesecurityviatransparencyandconfidencebuildingmeasuresasmen/onedintheU.S.na/onalspacepolicy

•  Firstformalnego/a/onsessioninNewYork,July2015•  KeyChallenges

–  Outreachtonewerspaceandnon-spacestates•  “WherehaveallthegoodEuropeandiplomatsgone?”•  Opposi/ontonego/a/onsoutsidetheUNsystem

–  Congressionalconcernswithcrea/ngexpecta/onsofabindingtreatyandlackofaSenaterole

–  Russianobjec/onstoSec/on4.2onra/onaleforthedestruc/onofspaceobjectsandtheroleofEuropeanUnion

19

ExcerptsfromSenateTes)mony,February2015

•  Interna/onalspacecoopera/on,spacecommerce,andinterna/onalspacesecuritydiscussionscouldbeusedtoreinforceeachotherinwaysthatwouldadvanceU.S.interestsinthesustainabilityandsecurityofallspaceac/vi/es.Atpresent,however,theseac/vi/esarelargelyconductedontheirindividualmeritsandnotaspartofanintegratedna/onalstrategy.

•  ThenextstepsbeyondlowEarthorbitwillrequireinterna/onalpartnersforprac/calandpoli/calreasons.Therefore,itmakessensetoaskwhatourpartnerswouldliketodo,andwhattheyarecapableofdoinginthefuture.TheansweristheMoon–withMarsandotherdes/na/onsinthedistance.AU.S.commitmentnow,toleadamul/na/onalprogramtoexploretheMoonwouldbeasymbolicandprac/calfirststepaswellasameansofcrea/ngabroaderinterna/onalframeworkforspacecoopera/on.Atthesame/me,thegeopoli/calbenefitsofimprovingrela/onswithgrowingspacepowersthroughgreaterU.S.engagementcouldsupportmoreambi/ousspaceexplora/oneffortsthansciencealonemightjus/fy.

•  TheUnitedStatesiscruciallyreliantonspacesystems,andthefuturesustainabilityandgovernanceofspaceac/vi/esarekeystrategicinterestsforus.Ifwearetohaveaneffec/veAmericanspacestrategy,weneedtoalignourpolicies,programs,andbudgetpriori/eswithenduringna/onalinterests.ThismeanslookingbeyondindividualmissionsandseekingtodeterminewhatfuturehumanitymighthavebeyondtheEarth,andwhatvalueswillbepartofthatfuture.Iwouldlikethosevaluestoincludethethingswevaluetoday–democracy,humanrights,theruleoflaw,andfreemarkets.

3/12/16

11

21

TwoCulturesinPolicyandRegula)on

Merchants Group of people whose culture encourages energy and risk taking. Examples are mostly found in business and to a lesser extent international science, they are sometimes represented in government, the military, and academia

Guardians Includes members of the political class who are responsible for governing and teaching. In space policy examples include civil servants, military officers, political appointees, congressional staff, journalist, academics, corporate officer, and professional politicians

•  The roles of Guardians and Merchants are in tension, but intimately linked.

•  While they may be necessary to society, they can create serious problems when they fail to do their duty or seek to take on the role of the other

•  Conflicts occur when government does not carry out its duties and inhibits industry and conversely Merchants should not be made responsible for Guardian functions (e.g. enforcement of export controls)

22

WhatistheFutureofHumansinSpace?

1.   Canhumans�liveofftheland�inspaceandfunc6onindependentlyofEarthforlongperiods?

2.   Arethereeconomicallyusefulac6vi6esinspacethatcansustainhumancommuni6esinspace?

Live off the land

Cannot live off the land

Nothing commercially useful Commercially sustainable

• Wedonotknowwhichoftheseoutcomesrepresentsourlong-termfuture.

Advocatesandskep)csmaybelieveoneoutcomeoranotherismostlikely,

butnooneactuallyknows

•  Determiningtheactualfutureofhumansinspacewouldbeawatershed

eventfortheUnitedStatesandhumanity

Mt. Everest

Antarctica

North Sea oil platform

Settlements

6

SeealsoHarryL.Shipman"HumansinSpace:21stCenturyFron/ers"

Antarc)ca

3/12/16

12

23

International Issues and Questions •  Reducing U.S. reliance on Russia for human access to space •  Next steps for Russia – declining industry, increasing isolation, renewed

military aggressiveness •  Next steps for China – growing counterspace capabilities, increased

regional confrontation, and options for human lunar capabilities •  Will an international space code of conduct be accepted by Russia, China,

and other space powers? •  Will India scale up to larger space systems? Will they become commercially

competitive? Competition with China? •  Will changes in Japan�s Space Basic Law translate into actual dual-use

capabilities? Cooperation with other ASEAN countries? •  Will Europe create a militarily significant space capabilities? •  How will Space Situational Awareness cooperation evolve? Sharing of

information on space objects with private sector and governments? •  International frameworks for space commerce: orbital debris, financing,

insurance, and property rights. Continuing impacts of U.S. export controls •  Will space exploration develop in a more integrated, multi-polar and regional

or a fragmented manner compared to today?

24

Domestic Space Issues and Questions •  Affordability of discretionary space programs in a budget increasingly

pressed by entitlement costs and debt •  How does human and robotic space flight support the priorities of the

Administration and Congress? –  Integration of National Security, International, and Economic interests –  What will be the policy foundation for human spaceflight post-ISS?

•  Contending U.S. military, intelligence, and international objectives –  Lack of clear accountability below the President –  Conflicting and changing requirements for space systems

•  National security space mission assurance and �rules of the road� –  Space situational awareness, counterspace weapons, and BMD

•  Management challenges in the space industrial base –  Sustaining government intellectual capital –  Increasing innovation and constraining cost growth

•  Role of space in R&D innovation –  What is the effectiveness and efficiency of space as a spur for innovation relative

to alternative investments? •  What values shape space activities – both domestically and internationally?