The Pit and the Pendulum - Cloudinary · 2016-03-21 · Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update (Estimates for Australia & New Zealand are as of October 2014.)

By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc.

February 12, 2015

The Pit and the Pendulum

On Behalf of

Park City Chamber/Bureau

Dawn of the Dead

Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries Projected 2014, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)

Rank Country Region % Rank Country Region %

1 Turkmenistan Central Asia 10.1 169 Netherlands Europe 0.6

2 Chad Africa 9.6 170 France Europe 0.4

3 Mongolia Asia 9.1 171 Brazil South America 0.3

4 Democratic Republic of the Congo Africa 8.6 172 Russia Eastern Europe 0.2

5 Côte d'Ivoire Africa 8.5 173 Solomon Islands Pacific Islands 0.1

6 Myanmar Southeast Asia 8.5 174 San Marino Europe 0.0

7 Mozambique Africa 8.3 175 Italy Europe -0.2

8 Ethiopia Africa 8.2 176 Finland Northern Europe -0.2

9 Sierra Leone Africa 8.0 177 Serbia Eastern Europe -0.5

10 China Asia 7.4 178 Barbados Caribbean -0.6

11 Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 7.4 179 Croatia Eastern Europe -0.8

12 The Gambia Africa 7.4 180 St. Lucia Caribbean -1.1

13 Tanzania Africa 7.2 181 Argentina South America -1.7

14 Cambodia Southeast Asia 7.2 182 Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.5

15 Uzbekistan Central Asia 7.0 183 Iraq Middle East -2.7

16 Sri Lanka Southeast Asia 7.0 184 Venezuela South America -3.0

17 Nigeria Africa 7.0 185 Cyprus Europe -3.2

18 Mauritania Africa 6.8 186 Ukraine Eastern Europe -6.5

19 Burkina Faso Africa 6.7 187 South Sudan Africa -12.3

20 Panama Central America 6.6 188 Libya Middle East -19.8

Source: International Monetary Fund, October 2014 WEO Database

Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2015 Projected*

3.2% 0.3%

1.3% 3.3%

6.3% 6.8%

6.4% -3.0%

2.9% 4.9%

4.3% 3.6%

2.3% 2.7%

0.6% 2.9% 2.8%

2.0% 0.4%

1.3% 0.9% 1.2%

2.4%

-5.0% -3.0% -1.0% 1.0% 3.0% 5.0% 7.0% 9.0%

MexicoBrazil

Latin America and CaribbeanMiddle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, & Pakistan

India***China

Developing AsiaRussia

Central/eastern EuropeSub-Saharan Africa

Emerging/developing countries**United States

CanadaUnited Kingdom

JapanAustralia

New ZealandSpain

ItalyGermany

FranceEuro area

Advanced economies

Annual % Change

Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update (Estimates for Australia & New Zealand are as of October 2014.)

*Real effective exchange rates are assumed to remain constant at the levels prevailing during December 8, 2014–January 5, 2015.

**The quarterly estimates and projections account for approximately 80 percent of the emerging market and developing economies.

***For India, data and forecasts are presented on a fiscal year basis and output growth is based on GDP at market prices.

Corresponding growth rates for GDP at factor cost are 5.6 and 6.3 percent for 2014/15 and 2015/16, respectively.

Jobs 0.3%

Incomes 4.7%

Profits 61.0%

Housing -6.8%

Stocks 33.5%

-70%

-50%

-30%

-10%

10%

30%

50%

70%

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Per

cen

t ch

ange

sin

ce e

nd

of

200

7

What Lies Beneath

Source: BEA, BLS, S&P Case-Shiller, Yahoo! Finance

*Through June 2014

Married with

Children 39%

Empty Nesters

20%

Single No Children

23%

Couple No Children

18%

- By Marital Status

Park City Visitors Demographic 2013/14 Season

Condo/ Vacation

Home 48%

Hotel/Motel/

Lodge 23%

Family & Friends

17%

Time-share 12%

- By Accommodation

*1% of visitors stay at B&B.

9.5%

6.5%

6.5%

8.6%

California

New York

Florida

International

- By Place of Residence

Source: Park City Chamber of Commerce, Convention & Visitors Bureau

< $50,000 9%

$50,000-99,999

14%

$100,000-149,999

20%

$150,000-199,999

13%

$200,000+ 44%

- By Household Income

Park City Visitor Nights Year-to-date through 3rd Quarter, 2004 – 2014

2.0

2.1

2.2

2.3

2.4

2.5

2.6

2.7

2.8

2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

Nu

mb

er

of

Vis

ito

r N

igh

ts (

in M

illi

on

s),

Ye

ar-

to-d

ate

th

ru Q

3 20

14

Source: Park City Chamber of Commerce, Convention & Visitors Bureau

Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Median Weekly Earnings, Full-Time U.S. Workers* 2000Q4 through 2014Q4

*SA, Constant 1982-1984 dollars (adjusted to CPI-U) Wage and salary workers ages 16+

$320

$325

$330

$335

$340

$345

$350

200

0Q

4

200

1Q2

200

1Q4

200

2Q2

200

2Q4

200

3Q2

200

3Q4

200

4Q

2

200

4Q

4

200

5Q2

200

5Q4

200

6Q

2

200

6Q

4

200

7Q2

200

7Q4

200

8Q

2

200

8Q

4

200

9Q

2

200

9Q

4

2010

Q2

2010

Q4

2011

Q2

2011

Q4

2012

Q2

2012

Q4

2013

Q2

2013

Q4

2014

Q2

2014

Q4

Source: Moody’s Economy

Recession Watch as of November 2014

Source: Pew analysis of U.S. Census Bureau’s quarterly tax revenue data, as adjusted by the Rockefeller Institute of Government

Tax Collections in 2014Q2 vs. Each State’s Peak* Real tax revenue still lower in 29 states since recession

*Adjusted for inflation

Industrial Production January 2001 through December 2014

Source: Federal Reserve

The industrial production index measures the real output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities industries.

80

85

90

95

100

105

110

Jan

-01

Jun

-01

No

v-0

1

Ap

r-0

2

Sep

-02

Feb

-03

Jul-

03

Dec

-03

May

-04

Oct

-04

Mar

-05

Au

g-0

5

Jan

-06

Jun

-06

No

v-0

6

Ap

r-0

7

Sep

-07

Feb

-08

Jul-

08

Dec

-08

May

-09

Oct

-09

Mar

-10

Au

g-1

0

Jan

-11

Jun

-11

No

v-11

Ap

r-12

Sep

-12

Feb

-13

Jul-

13

Dec

-13

May

-14

Oct

-14

Ind

ex

(20

07

= 1

00

)

(Base year: 2007)

Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2014Q4*

-10%

-8%

-6%

-4%

-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%19

90

Q1

199

0Q

419

91Q

319

92Q

219

93Q

119

93Q

419

94

Q3

199

5Q2

199

6Q

119

96

Q4

199

7Q3

199

8Q

219

99

Q1

199

9Q

420

00

Q3

200

1Q2

200

2Q1

200

2Q4

200

3Q3

200

4Q

220

05Q

120

05Q

420

06

Q3

200

7Q2

200

8Q

120

08

Q4

200

9Q

320

10Q

220

11Q

120

11Q

420

12Q

320

13Q

220

14Q

120

14Q

4

Pe

rce

nt

Ch

an

ge

fro

m P

rece

din

g P

eri

od

(S

AA

R)

2014Q4: +2.6%

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

*Advance (1st) estimate

Contributions to GDP Growth by Component 2013Q4 – 2014Q4*

Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis

-3.0

-2.0

-1.0

0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

PersonalConsumption

GovernmentSpending

Net Exports Gross Investment

2.5

-0.7

1.1

0.6 0.8

-0.2

-1.7

-1.1

1.8

0.3

-0.3

2.9

2.21

0.80 0.78

1.18

2.87

-0.40

-1.02

1.20

SA

AR

(%

)

Q4-13 Q1-14 Q2-14 Q3-14 Q4-14

*Advance (1st) estimate

Invasion of the Body Snatchers

-1,000

-800

-600

-400

-200

0

200

400

600Ja

n-0

2

Jul-

02

Jan

-03

Jul-

03

Jan

-04

Jul-

04

Jan

-05

Jul-

05

Jan

-06

Jul-

06

Jan

-07

Jul-

07

Jan

-08

Jul-

08

Jan

-09

Jul-

09

Jan

-10

Jul-

10

Jan

-11

Jul-

11

Jan

-12

Jul-

12

Jan

-13

Jul-

13

Jan

-14

Jul-

14

Jan

-15

Th

ou

san

ds


January 2015: +257K

Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through January 2015

National Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector January 2014 v. January 2015

36

47

78

80

159

228

308

482

509

565

715

0 200 400 600 800

Mining and Logging

Information

Other Services

Government

Financial Activities

Manufacturing

Construction

Leisure and Hospitality

Education and Health Services

Trade, Transportation, and Utilities

Professional and Business Services

Thousands, SA

All told 3,207K Jobs gained


6.0

6.5

7.0

7.5

8.0

8.5

9.0

9.5

10.0

10.5

11.0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

9.2

10.4

9.9

10.6 10.4

8.8

9.7 9.6

To

tal

Act

ive

Sk

iers

/Sn

ow

bo

ard

ers

(mil

lio

n)

Number of Active Skiers & Snowboarders in U.S. 2006/2007 Season through 2013/2014 Season

Source: National Ski Areas Association

6.0

16.0

26.0

36.0

46.0

56.0

66.0

2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 2013/14

11.8 14.3 13.7 13.4 13.9 11.0 13.3 13.4 4.9

5.2 5.7 6.0 5.8 4.4

5.2 5.8 7.2

8.1 7.2 7.7 7.8

6.4 7.3 7.7

20.8 21.3 20.0 20.4 20.9

19.1 19.8 21.1

10.3

11.6 10.7 12.3 12.2

10.0

11.3 8.5

To

tal

Sn

ow

sp

ort

s V

isit

s (m

illi

on

)

Northeast Southwest Midwest Rocky Mountain Pacific West

Snow Sports Visits 2006/2007 Season through 2013/2014 Season

Source: National Ski Areas Association

Utah Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Absolute Change

500

600

700

1,700

2,000

4,600

5,800

6,200

6,700

10,100

0 2,000 4,000 6,000 8,000 10,000 12,000

Other Services

Information

Mining and Logging

Manufacturing





Government

Construciton

UT Total:

+50.3K; +3.9%

US Total (SA):

+2,952K; +2.1%


100

400

900

1,500

1,900

2,600

3,000

3,300

3,700

3,700

0 1,000 2,000 3,000 4,000

Other Services

Information

Manufacturing



Trade, Transportation, and Utilities



Mining, Logging, and Construction

Government

Salt Lake City MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (NSA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Absolute Change

Salt Lake City MSA

Total: +21.1K; +3.1%

UT Total (SA):

+50.3K; +3.9%

US Total (SA):

+2,952K; +2.1%


U.S. Year-over-year Percent Change: 2.1%

Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) December 2013 v. December 2014 Percent Change

RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NORTH DAKOTA 5.4 18 ARKANSAS 1.9 35 MINNESOTA 1.2

2 TEXAS 4.0 18 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 1.9 35 NEW YORK 1.2

3 UTAH 3.9 18 WISCONSIN 1.9 35 OHIO 1.2

4 FLORIDA 3.0 21 KENTUCKY 1.8 38 IOWA 1.1

4 OREGON 3.0 21 MASSACHUSETTS 1.8 38 MICHIGAN 1.1

6 NORTH CAROLINA 2.8 23 ALABAMA 1.6 40 WEST VIRGINIA 1.0

7 DELAWARE 2.7 23 CONNECTICUT 1.6 41 ILLINOIS 0.9

7 GEORGIA 2.7 23 MISSOURI 1.6 41 KANSAS 0.9

7 WASHINGTON 2.7 23 MONTANA 1.6 41 PENNSYLVANIA 0.9

10 COLORADO 2.6 23 NEW MEXICO 1.6 44 MAINE 0.8

11 ARIZONA 2.5 23 RHODE ISLAND 1.6 44 MARYLAND 0.8

12 SOUTH CAROLINA 2.4 29 IDAHO 1.5 44 NEBRASKA 0.8

12 TENNESSEE 2.4 29 LOUISIANA 1.5 44 SOUTH DAKOTA 0.8

14 NEVADA 2.3 31 HAWAII 1.4 44 VIRGINIA 0.8

15 OKLAHOMA 2.2 31 WYOMING 1.4 49 NEW JERSEY 0.7

16 CALIFORNIA 2.1 33 NEW HAMPSHIRE 1.3 50 ALASKA 0.6

17 INDIANA 2.0 33 VERMONT 1.3 51 MISSISSIPPI 0.0


U.S. Unemployment Rate: 5.6%

Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) December 2014 RANK STATE % RANK STATE % RANK STATE %

1 NORTH DAKOTA 2.8 17 PENNSYLVANIA 4.8 35 ILLINOIS 6.2

2 NEBRASKA 2.9 17 VIRGINIA 4.8 35 NEW JERSEY 6.2

3 SOUTH DAKOTA 3.3 20 WISCONSIN 5.2 37 ALASKA 6.3

4 UTAH 3.5 21 DELAWARE 5.4 37 MICHIGAN 6.3

5 MINNESOTA 3.6 21 MISSOURI 5.4 37 WASHINGTON 6.3

6 IDAHO 3.7 23 MAINE 5.5 40 CONNECTICUT 6.4

7 COLORADO 4.0 23 MARYLAND 5.5 41 SOUTH CAROLINA 6.5

7 HAWAII 4.0 23 MASSACHUSETTS 5.5 42 TENNESSEE 6.6

7 NEW HAMPSHIRE 4.0 23 NORTH CAROLINA 5.5 43 ARIZONA 6.7

10 IOWA 4.1 27 FLORIDA 5.6 43 LOUISIANA 6.7

11 KANSAS 4.2 28 ALABAMA 5.7 43 OREGON 6.7

11 MONTANA 4.2 28 ARKANSAS 5.7 46 NEVADA 6.8

11 OKLAHOMA 4.2 28 KENTUCKY 5.7 46 RHODE ISLAND 6.8

11 VERMONT 4.2 31 INDIANA 5.8 48 GEORGIA 6.9

11 WYOMING 4.2 31 NEW YORK 5.8 49 CALIFORNIA 7.0

16 TEXAS 4.6 33 WEST VIRGINIA 6.0 50 MISSISSIPPI 7.2

17 OHIO 4.8 34 NEW MEXICO 6.1 51 DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA 7.3 Source: U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) December 2014

Rank MSA UR Rank MSA UR

1 Minneapolis-St. Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 3.3 10

Tampa-St. Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5

2 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.0 12

Chicago-Joliet-Naperville, IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6

3 Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.1 12

Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6

4 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan NECTA 4.3 12

New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island, NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6

5 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.4 12

Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale, AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6

6 Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA-MD-WV Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.5 12

St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.6

7 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA Metropolitan Statistical Area 4.8 17

Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.4

8 Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ-DE-MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.0 18

Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7

9 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.2 18

Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 6.7

10 Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area 5.5 20 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area 7.2


Salt Lake City MSA Unemployment Rate: 3.0%

Nightmare on Elm Street

15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates February 1995 through February 2015*

Source: Freddie Mac

2.92%

3.59%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

10%

Feb

-95

Sep

-95

Ap

r-9

6

No

v-9

6

Jun

-97

Jan

-98

Au

g-9

8

Mar

-99

Oct

-99

May

-00

Dec

-00

Jul-

01

Feb

-02

Sep

-02

Ap

r-0

3

No

v-0

3

Jun

-04

Jan

-05

Au

g-0

5

Mar

-06

Oct

-06

May

-07

Dec

-07

Jul-

08

Feb

-09

Sep

-09

Ap

r-10

No

v-10

Jun

-11

Jan

-12

Au

g-1

2

Mar

-13

Oct

-13

May

-14

Dec

-14

Rat

e

15-yr 30-yr

*Week ending 2/5/2015

U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through December 2014

Source: U.S. Census Bureau

December 2014 481K

0

200

400

600

800

1,000

1,200

1,400

1,600

Th

ou

san

ds,

SA

AR

U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through December 2014


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan

-99

Jun

-99

No

v-9

9

Ap

r-0

0

Sep

-00

Feb

-01

Jul-

01

Dec

-01

May

-02

Oct

-02

Mar

-03

Au

g-0

3

Jan

-04

Jun

-04

No

v-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jul-

06

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Au

g-0

8

Jan

-09

Jun

-09

No

v-0

9

Ap

r-10

Sep

-10

Feb

-11

Jul-

11

Dec

-11

May

-12

Oct

-12

Mar

-13

Au

g-1

3

Jan

-14

Jun

-14

No

v-14

Th

ou

san

ds,

SA

AR

1 Unit 5 units or more

December 2014: 1 Unit: 728K 5 Units or more: 339K


U.S. Homeownership

2014 Q4: 63.9%

60%

62%

64%

66%

68%

70%Q

4-1

98

0Q

4-1

98

1Q

4-1

98

2Q

4-1

98

3Q

4-1

98

4Q

4-1

98

5Q

4-1

98

6Q

4-1

98

7Q

4-1

98

8Q

4-1

98

9Q

4-1

99

0Q

4-1

99

1Q

4-1

99

2Q

4-1

99

3Q

4-1

99

4Q

4-1

99

5Q

4-1

99

6Q

4-1

99

7Q

4-1

99

8Q

4-1

99

9Q

4-2

00

0Q

4-2

00

1Q

4-2

00

2Q

4-2

00

3Q

4-2

00

4Q

4-2

00

5Q

4-2

00

6Q

4-2

00

7Q

4-2

00

8Q

4-2

00

9Q

4-2

010

Q4

-20

11Q

4-2

012

Q4

-20

13Q

4-2

014

U.S. Housing Building Permits January 1999 through December 2014


0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Jan

-99

Jun

-99

No

v-9

9

Ap

r-0

0

Sep

-00

Feb

-01

Jul-

01

Dec

-01

May

-02

Oct

-02

Mar

-03

Au

g-0

3

Jan

-04

Jun

-04

No

v-0

4

Ap

r-0

5

Sep

-05

Feb

-06

Jul-

06

Dec

-06

May

-07

Oct

-07

Mar

-08

Au

g-0

8

Jan

-09

Jun

-09

No

v-0

9

Ap

r-10

Sep

-10

Feb

-11

Jul-

11

Dec

-11

May

-12

Oct

-12

Mar

-13

Au

g-1

3

Jan

-14

Jun

-14

No

v-14

Th

ou

san

ds,

SA

AR

1 Unit 5 units or more

December 2014: 1 Unit: 667K 5 Units or more: 338K

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

1.5% 1.8% 2.0%

2.6%

4.0% 4.3%

4.9% 5.1%

7.5% 7.7% 7.7%

8.6% 8.9%

12-M

on

th %

Ch

ange

S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros November 2014, 12-Month Percentage Change

Source: Standard & Poor’s

20,000

22,000

24,000

26,000

28,000

30,000

32,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

23,109 23,190

24,554

27,491

31,662 31,405 (units)

Home sales, Year-to-date thorugh Q3

Utah Housing Statistics Year-to-date through 3rd Quarter, 2006 – 2014

Source: Utah Association of Realtors

$150,000

$160,000

$170,000

$180,000

$190,000

$200,000

$210,000

$220,000

2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014

$200,000

$192,000

$174,000

$179,000

$205,000

$213,000

Median price, Year-to-date thorugh Q3

Psycho

January-15 102.9

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

200

520

07

Feb

-08

Ap

r-0

8Ju

n-0

8A

ug

-08

Oct

-08

Dec

-08

Feb

-09

Ap

r-0

9Ju

n-0

9A

ug

-09

Oct

-09

Dec

-09

Feb

-10

Ap

r-10

Jun

-10

Au

g-1

0O

ct-1

0D

ec-1

0F

eb-1

1A

pr-

11Ju

n-1

1A

ug

-11

Oct

-11

Dec

-11

Feb

-12

Ap

r-12

Jun

-12

Au

g-1

2O

ct-1

2D

ec-1

2F

eb-1

3A

pr-

13Ju

n-1

3A

ug

-13

Oct

-13

Dec

-13

Feb

-14

Ap

r-14

Jun

-14

Au

g-1

4O

ct-1

4D

ec-1

4

Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 – January 2015

Source: Conference Board

-14.2%

0.9%

1.4%

2.4%

3.8%

4.8%

5.1%

5.2%

5.8%

6.1%

6.8%

8.2%

8.6%

-20.0% -15.0% -10.0% -5.0% 0.0% 5.0% 10.0%

Gasoline Stations

Miscellaneous Store Retailers

General Merchandise Stores

Food & Beverage Stores

Clothing & Clothing Accessories Stores

Sporting Goods, Hobby, Book & Music Stores

Internet, etc. Retailers

Building Material & Garden Supplies Dealers

Furniture & Home Furn. Stores

Health & Personal Care Stores

Electronics & Appliance Stores

Food Services & Drinking Places

Motor Vehicle & Parts Dealers

12-month % change

Sales Growth by Type of Business December 2013 v. December 2014*


*December 2014 advanced estimate

Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007 through December 2014

Source: Conference Board

-1.5%

-1.0%

-0.5%

0.0%

0.5%

1.0%

1.5%A

ug

-07

No

v-0

7

Feb

-08

May

-08

Au

g-0

8

No

v-0

8

Feb

-09

May

-09

Au

g-0

9

No

v-0

9

Feb

-10

May

-10

Au

g-1

0

No

v-10

Feb

-11

May

-11

Au

g-1

1

No

v-11

Feb

-12

May

-12

Au

g-1

2

No

v-12

Feb

-13

May

-13

Au

g-1

3

No

v-13

Feb

-14

May

-14

Au

g-1

4

No

v-14

On

e-m

on

th P

erc

en

t C

ha

ng

e

December 2014 = 121.1 where 2010 = 100

Tell-Tale Heart

• Economy gained momentum over the course of last year;

• Tailwinds included booming stock market, lower gasoline prices, stabilizing global economy, and consumer expenditures on interest rate sensitive durable goods like autos;

• The current year is associated with greater certainty regarding monetary policy – that helps;

• The world is not perfect - black swan threats remain: (1) Iran (2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe (4) contagion (5) cyber (6) EMP;

• Market is nervous, but perhaps for the wrong reasons (more people benefit from lower oil price than are hurt); and

• Outlook for Utah, tourism, and the U.S. is positive for 2015, just watch for trees.

Thank You

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Documents

The Pit and the Pendulum - Cloudinary · 2016-03-21 · Source: International Monetary Fund, January 2015 WEO Update (Estimates for Australia & New Zealand are as of October 2014.)