The Philippine Political Situation,

7/30/2019 The Philippine Political Situation,

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The Philippine

Political SituationAugust 2008

By the La Liga Policy Institute


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Real and Deep Socio-Economic

and Political Crises Exist


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Key Issues of the Day

The Rice and Food Crisis Record High Fuel Prices

Record High Poverty and Hunger

The GRP-MILF Peace Deal

The Revival of Charter Change

The Upcoming 2010 Elections


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Worsening Poverty and Hunger

From SWS:

6 out of 10 Filipinos or 59% (about)10.6 million, ratethemselves as Poor

24% put themselves on the Borderline For the 1st Quarter of 2008: Highest ever Self-Rated Poverty

now at 59% (increased by 9% from last years and by 13%from previous quarter)

From Pulse Asia: Majority of Filipinos or 71% consider themselves to be very

poor/poor and that their quality of life has worsened sincelast year


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Unabated Increases in thePrices of Basic Commodities

Consumer prices rose to near 17-year high in July (NSO) Projected 12.2% inflation for the year is higher than the BSP

forecast By June, inflation is already at 11.4% a 14-year high

Poverty Threshold From SWS, the median poverty threshold (the monthly budget

that poor households need in order not to consider themselvespoor) for Metro Manila is P10,000; for the rest of Luzon, P6,000;

in the Visayas, P7,500; and in Mindanao, P7,500. Given the rise in the prices of basic goods (57%) since 2000,

P10,000 today is equivalent only to P6,369. This is a throw-back to living standards of 20 years ago.


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How the Poor Cope Cutting down the number of meals

Sleeping through meal times Mothers eating smaller portions Skipping meals so the rest of the family will get to eat Giving children to the care of relatives/sympathetic souls

Replacement Ulam Salt, soy sauce, bagoong Pork, chicken lard Instant noodles drowned in plenty of water Restaurant left-overs cooked again (pagpag, batchoy,

kaning-baboy)


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Bottom-Low Credibility of the National Leadership

SWS: -50% net satisfaction rating

Corruption: Philippines most corrupt in Asia

25 percent of the annual national budget endsup in corruption (PSLink) ZTE, COMELEC, Fertilizer Scam, Swine Scam Many corruption cases has been exposed and

yet there have been no convictions and caseresolution


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PULSE Asia


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Despite these conditions, GMA'sadministration survived the many attempts

to remove her from power.

The GMA administrationhas consistently proven its adeptness in

crisis management that ensures herpolitical survival.


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GMA's Key Strategies

BLAMING EXTERNAL/GLOBAL Situation: Philippine Crisis

is a reflection of the Global Food and Commodity Crisis

GMA in her SONA speech:

Malapit na sana tayo sa pagbalanse ng budget. We were retiring debts in

great amounts, reducing the drag on our country's development, habangnamumuhunan sa taong bayan. Biglang-bigla, nabaligtad ang ekonomiya ngmundo. Ang pagtalon ng presyo ng langis at pagkain ay nagbunsod ng

pandaigdigan krisis, the worst since the Great Depression and the end ofWorld War II. Some blame speculators moving billions of dollars fromsubprime mortgages to commodities like fuel and food. Others point of the very

real surge in demand as millions of Chinese and Indians move up to themiddle class. Whatever the reasons, we are on a roller coaster ride of oil pricehikes, high food prices and looming economic recession in the US and othermarkets. Uncertainty has moved like a terrible tsunami around the globe,wiping away gains, erasing progress.


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GMA's Key Strategies

Distribution of Direct Transfers andSubsidies

From SONA: P2B pambayad ng koryente ng apat na 4M mahihirap

P1B para college scholarship o pautang sa 70,000 naestudyanteng maralita

P.5B pautang upang palitan ng mas matipid na LPG, CNGo biofuel ang motor ng libu-libong jeepney

P.5B pampalit sa fluorescent sa mga pampublikong lugar

Rice distribution, seeds and fertilizers for farmers


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Character of the

Political Conjuncture


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Opposition politicians andthe public are focused on the race to 2010

From Pulse Asia:

De Castro and Erap Estrada lead the presidentiables VP de Castro: 22% President Estrada: 16% Senators Francis Chiz Escudero: 14% Loren Legarda: 14%

Manuel Manny B. Villar: 12% Manuel Mar Roxas: 8%

Escudero and Legarda lead the vice-presidential race Escudero: 25% Legarda: 23% 5% to 11% range includes: Sen. Francis Kiko Pangilinan,

Sen. Jinggoy Estrada, Makati Mayor Jejomar Jojo Binay, Sen.Ramon Bong Revilla, and Batangas Governor Vilma Ate ViSantos.


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Weakened Protest Movement

While GMAs popularity sinks to an all-time

high, this didnt translate to public outrage.

No sustained protest initiatives.

All major transport strikes failed. Only 7,000 people were in the SONA rally.


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Cha-Cha Remains as GMAs Post 2010 Option

Objectives of Cha-Cha: Achieve a shift from Presidential to

Parliamentary form of government in 2010; and,

Allow GMA to stay in government minimum asmember of the Parliament, ultimately as Prime

Minister.


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Scenarios for Cha-Cha:New Approaches to Cha-Cha


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Cha-Cha Steps

Surgical Amendment

Constituent Assembly


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GRP-MILF Peace Agreement presents anopportunity to pursue Cha-Cha

The assertion of GRP that the peace agreement

becomes binding only when the constitution isamended.

The prerequisite of a plebiscite for the ratification of

the peace agreement The estimated one year period needed for the GRP

and MILF to conclude a peace agreement and

submit it to a plebiscite maybe the same time to beused by the administration to orchestrate a parallel

cha-cha operation


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Highlights of GRP-MILF MOA Acknowledges the right to self-governance of the Bangsamoro people

(creation of a state within a state) Recognition of ancestral domain as the core principle in determining

jurisdiction/territory

Both Parties agree that the Bangsamoro Juridical Entity (BJE) shall

have the authority and jurisdiction over the Ancestral Domain andAncestral Lands

Covers at least 1,700 communities within all existing ARMM provinces,

parts of North Cotabato, Zamboanga Sibuguey, Iligan City and

Palawan

The BJE, and the Central Government agree on wealth-sharing based

on a mutually agreed percentage ratio in favor of the BJE through an

economic cooperation agreement or arrangement


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MOA Suppoters and Opposition

PRO International Community US, Japan, Australia, OIC,

Malaysia

Religious Leaders- Cotabato Bishop Quevedo, CDOBishop Ledesma, UlamaChristian Peace Advocates

Mindanao NGOs- AFRIM, AMIN, BALAY, IID, etc.. Muslim Political Leaders- Rasul, Datumanong, Sema,

Dilanggalen, Hataman

ANTI

Mindanao Politicians- Pinol Brothers, Lobregat, Cruz Manila Politicians- Locsin, UNO, Liberal Party

A few columnists of major broadsheets


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Accommodation of thePolitical Opposition

To ensure acceptability of cha-cha, the

administration is pursuing accommodation of thepolitical opposition thru:

Letting Erap and all presidentiables run for 2010but under a Parliamentary set up.

Providing rewards in pending electoral protests ofthe opposition (e.g. Koko Pimentel to become amember of the Senate)

Ensuring term extension for LGU officials


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Pimentels Federalism Bill

Proposes to set up 11 federal states

Northern Luzon, Central Luzon, Southern Tagalog, Bicol,

Minparom (Mindoro, Palawan, Romblon)

Eastern Visayas, Central Visayas, Western Visayas,

Northern Mindanao, Southern Mindanao, and the State ofBangsamoro

Proposes a power sharing scheme between the

central government and the Federal states Bill has been endorsed by at least 15 Senators


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The resolution also calls for the election of six senators

in each of the 11 component federal states. Nine other senators will be elected to represent the

Filipinos overseas. This will expand the membership ofthe Senate from the current 24 to 75 members,

according to the resolution. Members of the House of Representatives will be

elected by district but limited to a maximum of 350.

The resolution provides that the senators will serve for aterm of six years and congressmen, three years. Thesenators will be limited to two terms and congressmen,four terms.


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Projected Timetable for Cha-Cha

December 2008 - Congressional Approval

June 2009 - Supreme Court Approval

September 2009 - National Plebiscite

May 2010 - National Elections under aparliamentary form of government


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Unless the crisis translates to massive

peoples protest and broader anti-GMAopposition,

GMA will be able to politically consolidate

around cha-cha and consequently around

her post 2010 option.


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- end of presentation

Documents

The Philippine Political Situation,