The Peak-End Model of Memory for Experienced Utility; Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 11/24/2015: Lecture 09-1 Note:

The Peak-End Model

of Memory for Experienced Utility;

Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making

Instructor: John Miyamoto 11/24/2015: Lecture 09-1

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Then (time permitting):

Empathy Gaps in Affective Forecasting

Outline

• Impact bias, duration bias, & immune neglect

• Integration of pain and pleasure over time:The Peak-End Model of Experienced Utility

• Time permitting: Empathy gaps in affective forecasting

Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 2

Lecture probably ends here

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3Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15

Impact Bias, Durability Bias, & Immune Neglect

• Impact bias – overestimation of the intensity and duration of affect

following a salient event.

• Durability bias and immune neglect: We think that events will have longer

lasting emotional impacts than they do.

Examples

• Students overestimate how unhappy they would be 2 months after the break

up of a romantic relationship.

• Professors overestimate how unhappy they would be 5 years after being

denied tenure.

Why do these effects happen?


Why Impact Bias and Durability Bias?

• Focalism – focusing illusion exaggerates impact of a focal event.

• People confuse the initial short-term emotional impact

of an event with its long-term effect. o How would you feel about breaking up with X right after breaking up?o How would you feel three months later?

• Under estimation of personal adaptation

Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response


Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation

Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., Kermer, D. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). The pleasures of uncertainty: Prolonging positive moods in ways people do not anticipate. Journal of

Personality and Social Psychology, 88(1), 5-21.

• Experimenter 1 approaches student

in library. Gives him/her a $1 coin

plus a card (either the top card or

bottom card).

What Happens Next in this Experiment



Wilson, T. D., Centerbar, D. B., Kermer, D. A., & Gilbert, D. T. (2005). The pleasures of uncertainty: Prolonging positive moods in ways people do not anticipate. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 88(1), 5-21.

• Experimenter 1 approaches

student in library. Gives

him/her a $1 coin plus the top

card (condition 1) or the bottom card

(condition 2).

• 5 minutes later, Experimenter 2

approaches same student and

gives him or her a question-

naire: Subjects rate their global

mood, and particular moods like

cheerfulness, frustration, etc.)

. Hypotheses For This Experiment


Main Hypothesis: Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response, i.e., It Delays Adaptation

• Top card – Unclear about reasons for

this experience (receiving $1). o Subjects receiving top card will be uncertain

about the experience (what just happened?).

• Bottom card – More clear about reasons

for the experience.

• Uncertainty prolongs the emotional state

created by the experience.

• Therefore 5 minutes later, subjects

receiving the top card should rate themselves as being in a better mood,

happier, etc., than people in condition 2.

Results of the Experiment



Results:

• Participants who received the top cardwere in better moods than people whoreceived the bottom card.

• Uncertainty about how to interpret an experience prolongs the emotionalresponse to the experience. Why?

o Emotional response to experience ismaintained while the cognitive interpretation of the experience is incomplete.

o Uncertainty forces deeper cognitive processing of the experience,or at least, continued cognitive processing of the experience.

Should We Practice Random Acts of Kindness?


Bumper Sticker: "Practice Random Acts of Kindness!"

• Quotation from Wikipedia article (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_act_of_kindness )

"The phrase

"Practice random kindness and senseless acts of beauty"

may have been coined by peace activist Anne Herbert. Herbert says she

wrote it on a place mat at a Sausalito restaurant in 1982 or 1983." [italics &

boldface added] Alternative version:

"Practice random acts of kindness and senseless acts of beauty"

• Is this an effective strategy?

Colostomy Study: Uncertainty Can Prevent Adaptation

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_act_of_kindness

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Random_act_of_kindness

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Anne_Herbert_(writer)

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sausalito


Adaptation: Colostomy Example

From Wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colostomy, downloaded 11/24/09).

A colostomy is a surgical procedure that involves

connecting a part of the colon onto the anterior

abdominal wall, leaving the patient with an opening on the abdomen called

a stoma. ....

After a colostomy, feces leave the patient's body through the abdomen. A

colostomy may be permanent or temporary, depending on the reasons for

its use.

Experimental Demo That Uncertainty Prolongs the Emotional Response

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colostomy

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colostomy


Colostomy Study & Psychological Adaptation

Two types of colostomy patients:

a) Those who know that this is a permanent health outcome.

b) Those who still have a chance that they will recover and no longer need the external waste bag

• Only the first group (a) shows adaptation (quality of life returns to pre-colonoscopy levels). Group (b) does not adapt.

• Message 1: Get over it and move on!

Message 2: Hope has a downside. (Smith et al., The dark side of hope, 2007)

How Can We Improve Our Ability to Predict Our Emotions?


How can we improve our ability to anticipate our own feelings?

• Avoid focalism – look at the big picture.

• Distinguish between:o how we would feel immediately after an event or learning about an outcome,

and ...o how we would feel after some time has passed and we have adjusted to the new

state of things.

• Remember that we can adapt to a new situation

(provided that we are in the right frame of mind to do so).

• Remember that uncertainty can prolong (and intensify?) the

pleasure or pain of an experience.

Some Questions About Feelings?


Some Questions about Feelings

• Falling in love is a stronger emotional experience than being

in love. Why?

• Worry & anxiety – negative responses to uncertainty.

Example: Waiting for the results of a medical test.

• Savoring and anticipation:

The pleasure of looking forward to a pleasant event.

References


References

Gilbert, D. T. (2006). Stumbling on happiness. New York: Knopf.o Writing style sounds casual, but the quality of scholarship is high.

Other References

Brickman, P., Coates, D., & Janoff-Bulman, R. (1978). Lottery winners and accident victims: Is happiness relative? Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 36, 917–927.

Gilbert, D. T., & Ebert, J. E. J. (2002). Decisions and revisions: The affective forecasting of changeable outcomes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 82, 503-514.

Gilbert, D.T., Pinel, E.C., Wilson, T.C., Blumberg, S.J., & Wheatley, T.P. (1998). Immune neglect: A source of durability bias in affective forecasting. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology , 75 , 617–638.

Mellers, B.A., & McGraw, A.P. (2001). Anticipated emotions as guides to choice. Current Directions in Psychological Science, 10, 210–214.

Schkade, D.A., & Kahneman, D. (1998). Does living in California make people happy? Psychological Science , 9 , 340–346.

Schwarz, N. (1996). Cognition and communication: judgmental biases, research methods, and the logic of conversation. Mahwah, NJ: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates.

Wilson,T.D., & Gilbert, D.T. (2003). Affective forecasting. In M.P. Zanna (Ed.), Advances in experimental social psychology (Vol. 35, pp. 345–411). San Diego, CA: Academic Press.

Decision Utility versus Experienced Utility

Decision Utility versus Experienced Utility

Decision Utility: Judgments made prior to or at the time of a decision regarding the utility of future outcomes.

Experienced Utility: Judgments made during or after the experience of an outcome regarding the value of the outcome.

• Next: How do we evaluate the experienced utility of pain and pleasure that is experienced over time.

Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 15Graphical Representation of Sequences of Pain or Pleasure


Which Sequence Will Be Remembered as “More” Pleasurable or Painful?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

01

23

45

6P

leas

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Time

Amount of Pleasure Over Time

A

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

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6P

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B

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-6-5

-4-3

-2-1

0P

ain

Time

Amount of Pain Over Time

C

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-6-5

-4-3

-2-1

0P

ain


D

Claims of the Peak-End Model


Which Sequence Will Be Remembered as “More” Pleasurable or Painful?

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

01

23

45

6P

leas

ure

Time


A

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

01

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45

6P

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B

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-6-5

-4-3

-2-1

0P

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Time


C

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-6-5

-4-3

-2-1

0P

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D

Claims of the Peak-End Model


Claims of the Peak-End Model for Experienced Utility

• Memories of pleasure or pain are dominated by ....o the peak of the experience (the best or the worst moment) and ...o the end of the experience (how you felt right before the end of the experience).

• The memory of pain or pleasure is not a summary of the moment-by-

moment experience.

• The memory of the pain or pleasure does not integrate the total pain or total

pleasure of the experience

Experimental Studies of the Peak-End Model - Colonoscopy

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

01

23

45

6P

leas

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Time


A

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9

-6-5

-4-3

-2-1

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Time


C


Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy ExampleRedelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.

• Colonoscopy: Endoscopic

examination of the colon by

means of a fiber optic or CCD

camera attached to a flexible

tube that is passed through the

anus. (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonoscopy;

11/25/2008)

• Patient may be partially sedated.

Depending on sedation, patient

may feel considerable discomfort

and pain, and remember these feelings.

Design of Colonoscopy Study

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Colonoscopy


Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy Example

Redelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and

retrospective evaluations of two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.

• Affect Meter: Hand-held device used to

record patient’s rating of current pain.

• Patients made pain ratings once per minute.

• Figure to the right:

Pain ratings of patients A and B.

• After the procedure was over, …o … patient rated overall discomfort.o … one month later, patient again rated overall

discomfort.o … physician was asked to predict how a patient would rate

the overall discomfort.

Results of Colonoscopy Study


Peak-End Model: Colonoscopy ExampleRedelmeier, D., & Kahneman, D. (1996). Patients' memories of painful medical treatments: Real-time and retrospective evaluations of

two minimally invasive procedures. Pain, 66, 3–8.

• Possible predictors of overall pain:o Peak pain – pain at the worst momento End pain – pain at the end of the procedureo Total pain – area under the curve of the pain

profileo Average pain – average pain over all ratingso Duration of pain – duration of any painful

experience

RESULTS

• Overall pain was predicted by peak pain and end pain.

• Other variables (total pain, average pain, duration of pain) added very little to the predictability of overall pain.

Follow Up Study With Random Assignment to Short & Long Procedures


Peak-End Model: Another Colonoscopy Study

Redelmeier, D. A., Katz, J., & Kahneman, D. (2003). Memories of colonoscopy: A randomized trial. Pain, 104, 187–194.

• Similar to previous study except this study had an additional experimental

condition.

• Colonoscopy patients were randomly assigned to a short or long procedure.o Short Procedure: The standard colonoscopy.o Long Procedure: The standard colonoscopy followed by a short period (approx. 3

minutes) during which the tip of the colonoscope remained in the rectum. This is uncomfortable but not as uncomfortable as the standard colonoscopy.

• Result: Patients who received the Long Procedure rated it as

significantly less painful and overall less aversive than patients

who received the Short Procedure.

Fredrickson/Kahneman Video Clips Study


Peak-End Model: Video Clips Example

Fredrickson, B. L., & Kahneman, D. (1993). Duration neglect in retrospective evaluations of affective episodes. Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 65, 45–55.

• Subjects see video clips of pleasant (e.g., penguins playing) or unpleasant (e.g., an amputation) scenes.

• Each video clip has a short and long version (long version is 3 times longer than short version).

• As subject watches each video clip, subject rates moment-by-moment pleasure/pain on an “affect meter” (small device that records ratings from -7 = maximum pain, to +7 = maximum pleasure).

• Immediately after end of each video clip, subject rates global pleasure/pain.

Results for Video Clips Example


Peak-End Model: Results for Video Clips Example

• Question: Is global pleasure/pain a weighted sum of every moment of pleasure/pain, or is it only a function of the peak and end pleasure/pain?

• Answer: Global pleasure/pain is predicted by peak and end only.

Temporary Summary of Peak-End Model Results





moment experience. In particular, …o … total pain is not an important predictor.o … duration of pain is not an important predictor.

• Yes, but ….o … do ratings really predict decisions (choice behavior)?o Would you get the same result if people had to choose between a

shorter and longer experience that were matched for peak and duration?

Choice Study – Painful Arm Study

As shown by the colonoscopy studies of Redelmeier & Kahneman (1996) and Fredrickson & Kahneman (1993).


Peak-End Model: The “Painful Arm” Experiment

• Fact: It can be quite painful to have your arm submerged in cold water for

some length of time.

• Day 1: Subjects either do Short Condition 1st, and

Long Condition 2nd, or vice versa. o Short Condition: Subjects have left or right arm submerged in 57 F water for 60

seconds.o Long Condition: Subjects have opposite arm submerged in 57 F water for 60

seconds, followed by 30 second period when the temperature increases by 1 degree per second.

• After performing on Day 1, subjects are given choice to repeat the Short

Condition or the Long Condition on Day 2.

• Question: Which Condition will subjects prefer to repeat on

Day 2?

Results of Painful Arm Experiment


Results: The “Painful Arm” Experiment

Results: 22 of 32 (69%) preferred to repeat the Long Condition.

During the Long Condition, some subjects reported no improvement (no improvement subjects) and others reported at least 2 rating points of improvement (improvement subjects).

• 17 of 21 (81%) "improvement" subjects chose the Long Condition.

• 6 of 11 (55%) "no improvement" subjects chose the Long Condition.

Summary of Peak-End Model Results - END





moment experience. In particular, …o … total pain is not an important predictor.o … duration of pain is not an important predictor.

• Discussion Question: Should you make choices that maximize your total

pleasure or choices that maximize your remembered pleasure?

Thanksgiving Day Suggestion

Enhancing Your Thanksgiving Day Experience

# 1: Make sure that the best moment of the day is very good.

# 2: Make sure to end the day on a good note.

Psych 466, Miyamoto, Aut '15 29#


Tuesday, November 24, 2015: The Lecture Ended Here


Next: Empathy Gaps & Predicting Intentions in Different Visceral States

• Empathy gaps – predicting one’s own attitudes when experiencing a non-

current emotion.

• Empathy gaps in people who are experiencing different

visceral states. o Visceral states - drives with a physiological component like thirst, hunger, sexual

arousal, anger, fear, ....

Predicting the Behavior of Self & Others

Predicting the Behavior of Self and Others

Hypothesis: Predictions about other person’s behavior is mediated by beliefs about self’s behavior.


Self in Nonemotional Situation

Other Person in Emotional Situation

Self in Emotional Situation

Other Person in Nonemotional Situation

Same Slide without Arrows

Predicting the Behavior of Self and Others


Self in Nonemotional Situation

Other Person in Emotional Situation

Self in Emotional Situation

Other Person in Nonemotional Situation

Hypothesis: Predictions about other person’s behavior is mediated by beliefs about self’s behavior.

Assumed Similarity Between Self & Others

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The Peak-End Model of Memory for Experienced Utility; Psychology 466: Judgment & Decision Making Instructor: John Miyamoto 11/24/2015: Lecture 09-1 Note: