The Path to a Successful Economic Transition in Egypt

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  • 7/31/2019 The Path to a Successful Economic Transition in Egypt

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    Ygb [dyg yj d \rllb||`rf BljajcolYuda|oyoja oa Bh {yXgdy ygb Raoybi \ydyb| Lda Ij yj Gbf{

    \deoad Ibxda& Mdcb| Gdou|yja& dai Mjuida Ebuagduiy Mrab 5;45

    xxx!dcbuolda{u jhub | | ! juh

    XJUNOAH @JU \GDUBI [UJ\[BUOY_XJUNOAH @JU \GDUBI [UJ\[BUOY_

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    Ygb [dyg yj d \rllb||`rfBljajcol Yuda|oyoja oa Bh {yXgdy ygb Raoybi \ydyb| Lda Ij yj Gbf{

    \deoad Ibxda& Mdcb| Gdou|yja& dai Mjuida Ebuagduiy Mrab 5;45

    XJUNOAH @JU \GDUBI [UJ\[BUOY_

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    Ljaybay| 4 Oayujirlyoja dai |rccdu

    2 Iopbuy |jcb cofoydu doi yjxdui bljajcol d||o|ydalb

    8 \r{{juy {refol#|blyju ub`juc yj {ry {bj{fb edln yj xjun oa ygb |gjuy ura

    ? \r{{juy {uopdyb#|blyju ibpbfj{cbay yj lubdyb mje|oa ygb cbiorc#yj#fjah ybuc

    45 [ujcjyb yudib dai oapb|ycbay ygb uohgy xd

    49 Xjun yjxdui d ebyybu birldybi& cjub |noffbi&dai btrdf fdeju `julb

    47 Cjeofo}b |r{{juy dai ljjuioadyb d||o|ydalbxoyg ygb oaybuadyojadf ljccraoy

    54 Ljalfr|oja

    55 Dejry ygb drygju|

    5< Dlnajxfbihbcbay|

    59 Baiajyb|

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    4 Lb ybu ju Dcbuold [ujhub|| v Ygb [dyg yj d \ llb|| f Blj jcol Yud |oyoj o Bh {y

    Oayujirlyoja dai |rccdu

    Yb {df{defb j{ oco|c gd {bucbd bi Bh { oa gb occbiod b d bucd g j gbubpjfr oja d bu gb jr| bu j fjah ocb dr jlud Gj|ao Credudn o| | du oah j dibd| cjub gda d bdu fd bu& gb ljra u lja oarb| j | urhhfb xo g da raxobfi {jfo oldf uda|o oja dai d | dhada bljajc !

    Xo g d abx {dufodcba dai |jja d abx {ub|oiba & Bh { xoff gdpb d hjpbuacba oa{fdlb& er gd dfjab xoff aj eb bajrhg j {ujcj b fd| oah | deofo oa gb ljra#

    u ! \ deofo ib{bai| ja xgb gbu Bh { | bljajc lda hbabud b bajrhg mr| mje|ljc{fb b xo g d{{uj{uod b ubcrabud oja& hjji xjunoah ljaio oja|& daij{{ju rao ob| ju dpbudhb lo o}ba| j cdnb d ebybu fo b ju gbc|bfpb| dai gbou

    dcofob| j hopb gb ad oja| abx ibcjludl gb raibu{oaaoah o abbi| j guopb!

    Bh { | bljajcol uda|o oja gd| ebba |fjx dai ruerfba |oalb gb dff j Credudn oa @beurdu 5;44! Bh { oda jruo|c iblubd|bi e d goui oa 5;44&4 dai

    juboha oapb| ju| dub | off gb|o da j |{bai!5 Cbdaxgofb& Bh { oda lja|rcbu|lja oarb j eb |trbb}bi e gohg oa buad ojadf jji {uolb|!< Yb|b ibpbfj{cba |bwdlbued b fjah| daioah {ujefbc| j rabc{fj cba & oab loba dw ljffbl oja&dai oab loba hjpbuacba |re|oiob|!9

    Bh { | jpbudff rabc{fj cba ud b | dai| d 4;!9 {bulba & dai j lodf b| ocd b||rhhb| gd gb jr g rabc{fj cba ud b o| 52 {bulba & er ej g gb|b hrub|raibub| ocd b gb dl rdf |ldfb j mjefb||ab||! Yb|b arcebu| ija ld{ rub gbcda {bj{fb gd |gjx r{ oa fdeju | d o| ol| d| eboah bc{fj bi xgba oa ubdfo

    gb dub raibubc{fj bi& |gduoah fjx#{ujirl opo xjun& ju dub oa j gbu juc| j ouubhrfdu bc{fj cba ! \rlg oaiopoirdf| dub aj hdoa rff bc{fj bi!2

    Jpbu|bd| ubcoydalb| ujc Bh { oda| xjunoah deujdi df|j {fd d eoh ujfb oaBh { | bljajc gb dlljra bi ju < {bulba j HI[ oa 5;4;! Er rucjof oaj gbu Dude \{uoah ljra uob| xoff d bl ubcoydalb| j Bh { & d| cohuda xjunbu| oaFoe d& ju bwdc{fb& dub julbi j ub rua gjcb!0 '|bb @ohrub 4 ja gb abw {dhb juda bljajcol |ad{|gj j gb Bh { oda bljajc /

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    5 Lb ybu ju Dcbuold [ujhub|| v Ygb [dyg yj d \ llb|| f Blj jcol Yud |oyoj o Bh {y

    D| gb abx Bh { oda hjpbuacba uda|o oja| oa j {jxbu o cr| ibfopbu bljajcolub juc| gd xoff lubd b trdfo mje| ju dff Bh { oda|! Yo| xoff aj eb da bd| d|n& er o o| d d|n gd dejpb dff o| r{ j gb Bh { oda| gbc|bfpb|! D| R!\! [ub|oibaEdudln Jedcd |doi oa Cd 5;44& O | aj Dcbuold gd {r {bj{fb oa j gb | ubb |j rao| ju Ldouj! O xd| gb {bj{fb gbc|bfpb| xgj fdralgbi gb|b cjpbcba |&dai o | gb {bj{fb gbc|bfpb| gd cr| rf ocd bf ib bucoab gbou jr ljcb!8

    _b|& Bh { oda| xoff rf ocd bf eb ub|{ja|oefb ju gbou jxa fjah& io lrf & dai oabp#o def cb|| uda|o oja& er gb Rao bi \ d b|jab j Bh { | eohhb| ijaju|gd| ebba d {jfo oldf dai bljajcol {fd bu oa Bh { ju ibldib|! O | ujfb oa gbf{oahlubd b da bljajcol bapoujacba gd o| ljairlopb j gb lubd oja j hjji mje| oaBh { o| ajx cjub oc{ju da gda bpbu!

    Xgd | d | dnb hjb| eb jai gb Bh { oda {bj{fb| d|{oud oja| ju d ebybu fo b!

    Gjx Bh { gb cj| {j{rfjr| ljra u oa gb Dude xjufiibdf| xo g o |ruerfba uda|o oja xoff |b gb {ublbiba ju j gbu ad oja|& oalfrioah Edgudoa&

    _bcba& dai \ uod! Yo| luo oldf {jfo oldf dai bljajcol uda|o oja xoff d bl gb Dude#O|udbfo lja`ol dai ebdu| cdmju | ud bhol oc{fold oja| ju gb Rao bi \ d b|dai gb oa buad ojadf ljccrao !

    @OHRUB 4

    Bh {y= Bljajcol |ad{|gjy

    Nb oaioldyju|

    _jryg rabc{fjcbay '5;;8/

    ; 4; 5;

    44!2"44!

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    < Lb ybu ju Dcbuold [ujhub|| v Ygb [dyg yj d \ llb|| f Blj jcol Yud |oyoj o Bh {y

    _b ebldr|b j gb gb ralbu doa dejr Bh { | {jfo oldf dai bljajcol r rub&gb Rao bi \ d b| dai gb oa buad ojadf ljccrao dub ra|rub dejr gjx j

    bahdhb xo g da Bh { oa `rw! Yb ljra u | |ludcefbi uda|o oja oapjfpoah gb\r{ubcb Ljralof j gb Ducbi @julb|& gb Cr|foc Euj gbugjji& dai gb cj| f |blrfdufo| ubpjfr ojaduob| xgj gbf{bi fbdi gb ubpjfr oja dub bahdhbi oa d rh j

    xdu ju {jxbu dai fbho ocdl gd fbdpb| gb Rao bi \ d b| ralfbdu dejr xgjcj ibdf xo g!7 Yb Rao bi \ d b| ai| o |bf ldrhg eb xbba gb abbi j uberofi dio{fjcd ol ubfd oja|go{ xo g gb ljra u | fbdibu|& xgjbpbu gb cd rf ocd bf eb& dai gb ib|oub j hba f arihb Bh { jxdui hubd bu ibcjludl !?

    Yo| ralbu doa ebljcb| bpba cjub {ujajralbi dhdoa| gb edlniuj{ j {j{rfduda o#Dcbuoldao|c oa Bh { ! Yb Bh { oda {bj{fb gdpb aj juhjyba Dcbuold|fjah ubfd oja|go{ xo g gb Credudn ubhocb!

    Yb Rao bi \ d b| lda dai cr| ublja hrub o | ubfd oja|go{ xo g Bh { | abx fbdibu|

    dai gb Bh { oda {bj{fb d go| luo oldf mral rub! Gduab||oah R!\! d||o| dalb& blj#ajcol doi& dai udib j gbf{ Bh { lubd b mje| dai {r o | bljajc edln ja udln xoff gbf{ ru gbu ej g j gb|b hjdf|{ujcj oah {jfo oldf dai |jlodf | deofo xgofb xjunoah j trbff da o#Dcbuolda |ba ocba ! \{blo ldff & gb Rao bi \ d b| cr| =

    Iopbu |jcb j o | cofo du doi jxdui bljajcol d||o| dalb \r{{ju {refol#|bl ju ub juc j {r {bj{fb edln j xjun oa gb |gju ura \r{{ju {uopd b#|bl ju ibpbfj{cba & b|{blodff |cdff# dai cbiorc#|o}bi ba bu#

    {uo|b|& j lubd b mje| oa gb cbiorc# j#fjah buc Ub goan gb R!\!#Bh { oda udib ubfd oja|go{ Gbf{ Bh { xjun jxdui lubd oah d ebybu birld bi& cjub |noffbi& dai btrdf

    fdeju julb Cjeofo}b |r{{ju dai ljjuioad b d||o| dalb xo g gb oa buad ojadf ljccrao

    j ubirlb xd| b dai cdwoco}b b bl opbab||

    Yo| ub{ju bw{fjub| gjx bdlg j gb|b | b{| lda eb oao od bi e gb Rao bi \ d b|!

    Yo| ub{ju o| ed|bi ja ub|bdulg& oa bupobx|& dai gb aioah| j gb Mr| Mje|Ab xjun 4; |bcoadu& Mr| Mje| ju Hujx g dai \ deofo & gbfi oa Ldouj oa Cd

    5;44! Yo| |bcoadu eujrhg jhb gbu {jfol bw{bu |& hjpbuacba fbdibu|& |jlodfba ub{ubabru|& dai raoja ub{ub|ba d opb| j io|lr|| gjx j lubd b da bljajcolbapoujacba ljairlopb j mje lubd oja dai bljajcol hujx g oa Bh { d bu gb Dude \{uoah! Lja oarbi ub|bdulg& dadf |o|& dai ljapbu|d oja| xo g {jfol cdnbu|

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    9 Lb ybu ju Dcbuold [ujhub|| v Ygb [dyg yj d \ llb|| f Blj jcol Yud |oyoj o Bh {y

    dai bw{bu | oa Bh { dai j gbu Dude \{uoah ljra uob| gdpb gbf{bi oa juc go|ub{ju |oalb gb Ab xjun| oao odf |bcoadu!

    Xb ebfobpb jru aioah| lda fd gb hujrai| jab| ju d abx bljajcol ubfd oja|go{ xo g gb Bh { oda hjpbuacba dai o | {bj{fb gd o| dou dai btro defb& gbf{oah

    gb ad oja |jfio o | ibcjlud ol hdoa| xo g mje|#ed|bi |r| doadefb dai oalfr|opbbljajcol hujx g!

    \ydyb Ib{duycbay Coiifb Bd|y Oalbayopb @rai=d {uj{j|bi )88; coffoja rai yj

    {ujcjyb bljajcol dai lopol ibpbfj{cbay oa ygb Coiifb Bd|y dai

    Ajuyg D uold Coiifb Bd|y [duyabu|go{ Oaoyodyopb=d {ujhudc ygdy j bu| |r{{juy

    yj ajahjpbuacbaydf juhdao}dyoja| dai oaiopoirdf| oa ygb ubhojaxgj dub dipjldyoah ub juc

    R!\! Dhbal `ju Oaybuadyojadf Ibpbfj{cbay Bljajcol \r{{juy @rai= d rai ygdy {ujcjyb| bljajcol dai

    |jlodf ibpbfj{cbay

    Jpbu|bd| [uopdyb Oapb|ycbay Lju{judyoja Oapb|ycbay oa|rudalb dai uboa|rudalb& ibey dai btroy oapb|y#

    cbay|& dai hrdudaybb| ju {uopdyb oapb|ycbay oa Bh {y

    Yubd|ru Ib{duycbay Ibdrpoffb [duyabu|go{=da oaybuadyojadf {fdy juc ju d||o|y

    |oyojaoah Coiifb Bd|y dai Ajuyg D uolda ljrayuob|> jlr| ja

    ubfob dai adaloah

    J``olb j` ygb Raoybi \ydyb| Yudib Ub{ub|baydyopb Bh {y dai ygb R!\! yudib ub{ub|baydyopb dhubbi yj ibpbfj{

    yoja {fda yj ejj|y Bh {y| oaybhudyoja oayj ygb hfjedf bljajMdardu 5;45

    Bh {y dai ygb Raoybi \ydyb| |ohabi d eofdybudf oapb|ycbay4?70& xgolg baybubi oayj julb oa 4??5

    Ljahub|| Bh {yoda#Dcbuolda Baybu{uo|b @rai Dly=xjrfi b|ydefo|g d

    {uopdyb& aja{uj y juhdao}dyoja yj {ujcjyb bljajcol ibpbfj{dai dayoljuur{yoja b juy| oa Bh {y

    Nb R!\! d||o|ydalb {ujhudc| `ju Bh {y

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    2 Lb ybu ju Dcbuold [ujhub|| v Ygb [dyg yj d \ llb|| f Blj jcol Yud |oyoj o Bh {y

    Iopbuy |jcb cofoydu doi yjxduibljajcol d||o|ydalb

    Yb Rao bi \ d b| dai gb Bh { oda cofo du gdpb jucbi d | ujah ubfd oja|go{ jpbu|bpbudf ibldib| ja gb ed|o| j gb 4?8? Ldc{ Idpoi dhubbcba & xgolg gbf{bi{ujcj b {bdlb eb xbba O|udbf dai o | Dude abohgeju|& oalfrioah Bh { ! Yb Rao bi\ d b| gd| {ujpoibi d{{ujwocd bf )4!< eoffoja oa daardf cofo du doi j Bh { eb xbba 4?78 dai 5;45!44 \jcb bw{bu | ebfobpb gd lja oarbi cofo du doi gd|gbf{bi gb \r{ubcb Ljralof j gb Ducbi @julb| bwbulo|b o | bwblr opb {jxbu daicdoa doa ubfd opb | deofo oa Bh { |oalb gb ubpjfr oja oa 5;44! '|bb @ohrub 5/

    @OHRUB 5

    R!\! d||o|ydalb yj Bh {y& 5;44 yj 5;4