The Path to 270 in 2016: Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
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The Path to 270 in 2016 Can the Obama Coalition Survive? By Ruy T eixeira, John Halpin, and Rob Griffin December 2015 WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.ORG ASSO CIATEDPRESS/JULIACUM ES
The Path to 270 in 2016: Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
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Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
By Ruy Teixeira, John Halpin, and Rob Griffin December 2015
WWW.AMERICANPROGRESS.O
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The Path to 270 in 2016 Can the Obama Coalition Survive?
By Ruy Teixeira, John Halpin, and Rob Griffin December 2015
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15 Core Obama and GOP states
16 The Midwest/Rust Belt
63 About the authors
Contents
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1 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
2016
Introduction and summary
One year ou, he presidenial elecion o 2016 appears wide open. Over
he pas
our elecion cycles, American voers have ye o render a decisive
verdic on pari-
san conrol o he ederal governmen. Presiden Barack Obama won solid
margins
in boh 2008 and 2012, expanding he Democraic hold on he Elecoral
College
map and building a srong and diverse coaliion o voers. In urn,
Republicans
won impressive vicories in boh he 2010 and 2014 miderm
elecions, solidly
reaking he House o Represenaives, obaining majoriy conrol in he
Senae,
and exending heir hold on he majoriy o sae legislaures and
gubernaorial offices. Currenly, Republicans hold 31 o 50 sae
governorships and have unified
conrol o 31 sae legislaurescompared o jus 11 or he Democras.
Democrasrelying on a growing coaliion o young people, people o
color,
unmarried women, proessionals, and secular voershold clear
advanages in
naional elecions, as well as in he mos imporan batleground saes ha
deer-
mine he presidency. As America has changed demographically, he
Democraic
Pary has increasingly changed wih i, enabling he pary o grow
markedly a
he naional level in erms o boh voe share and parisan idenificaion.
In five o
he las six presidenial elecions, he Democras have won he popular
voe and
regularly lead he GOP by around 8 poins in erms o pary
idenificaion.1 Te
main challenges or Democras in 2016 are: firs, low urnou and a lack
o passion
among core voers and, second, wider voer aigue and hisorical
paterns work-
ing agains he pary winning a hird consecuive erm in he Whie
House.
Te Democraic Pary has won hree consecuive elecions only wice since
1828:
when Marin van Buren ollowed Andrew Jackson ino office in
1837 and when
Franklin Roosevel won an unprecedened hird erm in 1940 beore he
passage
o he 22nd Amendmen, which limis presidens o wo erms. 2
More recenly, as he Naional Consiuion Cener has noed,
Democras have ailed o win a hird
consecuive erm our ou o he five imes hey have had he opporuniy
since
1920. James Cox, Adlai Sevenson, Huber Humphrey, and Al Gore all
ailed o
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2 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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capialize on he vicories o heir Democraic
predecessors.3 Republicans have
hisorically been more successul han Democras a exending heir hold
on
he presidency or a hird consecuive erm,4 mos recenly wih he
elecion o
George H.W. Bush in 1988.
I Democras are o reain he presidency in 2016, hey will need o
successullyranser he enhusiasm and suppor o he Obama coaliion o a
new candidae
and overcome he wider belie ha he pary had is sho or eigh years and
ha
i is now ime or a change. Finding a candidae and agenda ha can
successully
moivae core progressive voerswhile simulaneously convincing a
wider
cross-secion o less ideological voers ha hey have new ideas o
address lin-
gering economic and social problemswill be paramoun. Te pary mus
also
ake seriously he need o kni ogeher is more diverse coaliion wih a
larger
share o working class whies i i wans o be compeiive in
congressional and
sae-level elecions.
Te Republican Paryrelying on a core base o suppor rom older, whier,
more
male, more geographically dispersed, and more religious
voersbenefis rom a
consiuional sysem wih muliple levels o elecions and shared power.
Alhough
he pary ’s coaliion may be less diverse han Democras’, Republican
voers are
ypically more acive and more reliable in erms o voing in miderm and
sub-
naional elecions ha deermine he balance o power in governmen. Te
main
challenges or Republicans in 2016 are woold: firs, an overreliance
on whie
voes a he expense o building a broader demographic coaliion
in batleground
saes and, second, an agenda and poliical one ha is oo conservaive
and exclu-
sionary or a naional elecorae.
Recen social rends presen significan headwinds or Republicans,
paricularly
as hey relae o demographic shifs in he counry. For years,
Republicans could
rely on whie voersand, in paricular, working-class whieso consiue
a
decisive proporion o he elecorae and deliver vicory. Tis is no
longer he
case. As documened in he 2014 “Saes o Change” repor5published
joinly
by he Cener or American Progress, he American Enerprise
Insiue, and he
Brookings Insiuionhe percenage o whie voers in he acual
elecorae
dropped 15 percenage poins, rom 89 percen in 1976 o 74 percen in
2012. Te percenage o whie working-class voers dropped even more,
decreasing by 26
poins over he same period. Fuure projecions in he “Saes o Change”
repor
sugges ha he percenage o eligible whie voers in he American
elecorae will
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3 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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drop o 46 percen by 2060. (see Figure 1) Compounding he problem
naion-
ally or Republicans, he decline in he whie percenage o he elecorae
has
coincided wih sronger Democraic idenificaion and voing paterns
among
nonwhie voers, as well as increasingly more liberal social views
among higher-
educaed whie proessionals.6
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
Racial composition of eligible voting population, 1980–2060
Sources: Authors' calculations are based on data from the Current
Population Survey's November Supplement, the Census' 2014 National
Population Projections, and the American Community Survey.
1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Projected
For Republicans o win he presidency in 2016, hey mus eiher expand
heir
suppor beyond heir conservaive base or hope or a low-urnou elecion
on he
Democraic side, magniying heir advanages among whie voers. Tis is a
ricky
sraegic proposiion or he pary ha involves significan radeoffs in
erms o
he ype o candidae nominaed and agenda pursued. Republicans can
cross heir
fingers ha he 2016 elecion is similar o 2004, when urnou was higher
among
whie voers and conservaives and lower among people o color.
Alernaively,
hey can ry o carry ou he recommendaions o he Republican
Naional
Commitee afer heir 2012 loss and widen he pary ’s appeal as a means
o reach
more minoriy voers, women, and young people.7 Given he recen
voing and
parisan idenificaion rends among people o color, Republicans would
clearly
need o ake he later approach in order o deal wih he longer-erm
demographic issues acing he pary.
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4 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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Compounding he specific challenges or Democras and Republicans,
boh
paries mus conend wih an increasingly unpredicable and unsetled
elecor-
ae. Americans voers are angry, disrusul o esablishmen poliics, and
open o
seemingly ou-o-he-mainsream candidaes and movemens ha channel
hese
concerns and anxieies. Despie improvemens in he overall economy
over he
pas seven years, many Americans remain economically sressed and
have a risingsense ha he governmen is run or he benefi o a ew
wealhy and well-con-
neced ineress raher han he middle class.8
Rising populis senimen has upended elecoral poliics across advanced
democ-
racies. Tis senimen has given rise o boh unradiional candidaes and
paries
gaining voes and supporofen fleeing bu in ways ha are now
influencing he
decisions o mainsream paries. Examples include he rising voe oals
or, on he
righ, paries such as he Naional Fron in France; he rue Finns in
Finland; and
he Danish People’s Pary in Denmark. On he lef, such populis paries
include
Syriza in Greece and Podemos in Spain.
In he Unied Saes, lef-wing populism is driving Democras o offer
more ar-
reaching soluions o problems such as inequaliy and srucural racism,
while
righ-wing populism is driving Republicans o more orceully conron
immigra-
ion and governmen spending across he board. Populis orces in boh
paries
are increasingly hosile o global rade, miliarism, money in poliics,
and poliical
compromise wih opponens. I remains o be seen wheher hese populis
orces
will deermine he nominaions o eiher pary, bu i is clear ha he
animaing
issues and he candidaes represening hese movemens will have an
effec on he
evenual plaorms and messages o he wo general elecion
campaigns.
However, examining naional demographic and voing rendsespecially in
12
imporan batleground saesi is clear ha Republicans have a much
higher
hill o climb han Democras in erms o amassing a coaliion capable o
delivering
270 elecoral voes, or EVs. Te Democras have successully achieved
his goal in
he pas wo presidenial elecions, demonsraing resilience in he ace o
a bad
economy and srong Republican opposiion.
Even i Republican presidenial candidae and ormer Massachusets Gov.
Mit Romney had won Florida, Ohio, and Virginia in 2012, he sill
would have los
he presidency o Presiden Obama. Given he prediced increases in he
minor-
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5 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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iy share o he voe across all o he batleground saes, a Republican
winning
hese saesplus anoher vial sae such as Colorado or New Hampshire
o
pu hem over he opwill require one o wo scenarios: a significan
decline in
Democraic urnou and a surge in Republican urnou ha produces an
elecoral
landscape more like 2000 and 2004 han 2008 or 2012; or a widespread
oureach
effor by Republicans o atrac significan numbers o Democraic-leaning
voerssuch as Lainos, women, and younger people. Te sobering realiy
or Republicans
is ha he Democraic candidae will be able o absorb mild levels o
deecions or
lower levels o urnou rom is core voers in he general elecion and
sill capure
an Elecoral College majoriy. I Democras manage o hold Presiden
Obama’s
base and expand heir reach ino he Republican-leaning whie
working class, hey
could win by subsanial margins.
Based on our projecions, minoriy eligible voersArican Americans,
Lainos,
Asians, hose o oher race and mixed-race individuals,
combinedare expeced
o rise 2 poins naionally during he 2012 o 2016 period, wih a
similar 2-poin projeced increase in he minoriy share o acual voers.
(see Mehodological
Appendix) Tis includes a roughly 1-poin increase in he Laino
share o acual
voers, as well as anoher 1-poin increase disribued among
Arican Americans,
Asians, hose o oher races, and muliracial voers. Democras may
or may no
mach he 81 percen suppor he pary received rom communiies o color
in
he pas wo elecions. A more conservaive esimae is ha voers o color
will
suppor Democras a around he 78 percen levelhe average level o
minor-
iy suppor or Democras rom 2000 o 2012.9 Puting our esimaes on
elecoral
share and suppor ogeher, we anicipae ha voers o color will rise 2
poins o
make up 29 percen o he naional presidenial elecorae in 2016, wih
around 78
percen o hose voers supporing he Democraic nominee.
Republicans, meanwhile, are expeced o coninue o hold srong
advanages
among whie voersparicularly whie non-college-educaed
voersalhough
he share o hese voers in he overall elecorae is likely o coninue o
decline.
Based on our conservaive esimaes,10 non-college-educaed whies
are projeced
o all 2.3 poins as a percenage o he naional elecorae, while whie
college-
educaed voers are projeced o increase by .4 percen as a share o
acual voers.
Tis shif in he whie voe coninues a rend slighly avoring Democras
given he voing paterns o boh whie groups.
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6 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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I he Democras receive heir 2012 levels o suppor among hese hree
groups
in 2016an 11-poin defici among whie college graduaes; a 22-poin
defici
among whie working-class voers; and a 64-poin advanage among
minoriy
voershe pary will easily win he popular voe by a 6-poin
margin. I suppor
or he Democras among minoriies declines o our more conservaive
esimae
o 78 percen, hey would sill win he popular voe by 4 poins. I, on op
o ha
diminished minoriy suppor, whie working-class suppor replicaes he
sunning 30-poin defici congressional Democras suffered in 2014,
while suppor among
whie college-graduaes remains seady, he Democraic candidae
would sill win
he popular voealbei by a slender margin. I, however, whie
college-graduae
suppor also replicaes is relaively weak 2014 perormance or he
Democrasa
16-poin deficiRepublicans would win he popular voe by a single
poin.
The New South
The Southwest FL
FIGURE 2
Key battleground states for 2016 2012 presidential election margin
of victo
Source: Author’s calculations are based on elections results from
Federal Elections Commission, Elections 2012 ava ilable at
http://www.fec.gov/pubrec/fe2012/federalelections2012.pdf
North Carolina
White college graduates 44% 55% 0
White working class 38% 60% -2
Note: Due to rounding error, the numbers in the projected change in
share column may not sum to zero.
Source: Authors’ calculations based on data from the Bureau of the
Census, Current Population Survey 2012: November
Supplement (2012), available at
https://cps.ipums.org/cps/; data taken from the Bureau of the
Census, American Communities Survey, (2008–2013), available at
Steven Ruggles and others, “Integrated Public Use Microdata
Series: Version 5.0” (Minneapolis: Minnesota Population Center,
2010), available at https://usa.ipums.org/usa/; CCES Dataverse
“CCES Common Content, 2012,” available at
https://dataverse.harvard.edu/dataset.xhtml?persistentId=
hdl:1902.1/21447 (last accessed November 2015); Roper Center,
“National Elelction Pool Exit Polls” (2012), available
at http://ropercenter.cornell.edu/polls/us-elections/exit-polls/;
projections f rom Ruy Teixeira, William H. Frey, and Robert
Griffin, “States of Change: The Demographic Evolution fo the
American Electorate 1974–2060” (Washington:
Center for American Progress, 2015), available at
https://www.americanprogress.org/issues/progressive-movement/
report/2015/02/24/107261/states-of-change/.
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7 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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In 2012, Presiden Obama carried 26 saes, as well as he Disric o
Columbia, or
a oal o 332 EVs. Democras have carried 18 o hese saes, plus D.C.,
or a oal o
242 EVs in every elecion since 1992a group ha journalis Ronald
Brownsein
has ermed he “Blue Wall.”11 O hese 18, he Democraic candidae
in 2016 is
almos cerain o carry 14 o hem12Caliornia, Connecicu, Delaware,
Hawaii,
Illinois, Maine, Maryland, Massachusets, New Jersey, New York,
Oregon, RhodeIsland, Vermon, and Washingonplus D.C.or a oal o 186
EVs.
Tese are he Democras’ core saes, won easily by he Democraic
candidae or
six sraigh elecions and unlikely o be seriously conesed in 2016. Bu
hese core
saes are ar shor o an Elecoral College majoriyhe Democraic
candidae
will sill need 84 more EVs rom some combinaion o oher saes o
acually win
he presidency.
In 2012, Republicans carried 24 saesAlabama, Alaska, Arizona,
Arkansas,
Georgia, Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kenucky, Louisiana, Mississippi,
Missouri, Monana, Nebraska, Norh Carolina, Norh Dakoa, Oklahoma,
Souh Carolina,
Souh Dakoa, ennessee, exas, Uah, Wes Virginia, and Wyomingor a
oal
o 206 EVs. Tey are almos cerain o carry all o hese saes in 2016,
wih he
excepion o Norh Carolina, or a oal o 191 EVs. Tis is ar shor o a
majoriy:
Republicans will need 79 addiional EVs o capure he
presidency.
Ouside o New Hampshire, boh Democras and Republicans will need o
ocus
on a collecion o Midwes, Souhwes, and so-called New Souh saes in
order o
prevail in 2016. Tese saesIowa, Michigan, Minnesoa, Ohio,
Pennsylvania,
Wisconsin, Colorado, Nevada, New Mexico, Florida, Norh
Carolina, and
Virginiawere all carried by Presiden Obama in 2012, excep or
Norh
Carolina, which he won in 2008 bu narrowly los in 2012.
Boh he srucural demographic changes and geographic paterns o suppor
in
he elecorae sugges sligh advanages or Democras in 2016. In no way,
how-
ever, do hese acors preclude Republicans rom aking he righ seps o
amass a
naional majoriy and Elecoral College vicory.
One year ou, he dynamics o he 2016 elecion can be disilled o a ew
core quesions. Will he Democras’ demographic advanage in recen
elecions hold?
Can a new Democraic candidae gain he suppor o Presiden Obama’s
voers
wihou he presiden on he ballo? Can Democras build a
cross-class coaliion
ha unies is diverse core wih a larger segmen o whie working-class
voers?
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8 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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On he Republican side, will displeasure wih Presiden Obama and
uncer-
ainy among he elecorae give Republicans an opening o reach more
voers?
Can Republicans dey long-erm demographic rends and pull ou a vicory
by
maximizing urnou rom is base and suppor rom whies in a poenially
low-
enhusiasm elecion? Can Republicans reach across he ideological
divide o bring
in some Obama voers and hose disengaged rom poliics?
Te remainder o his repor examines he known conours o he 2016
elecion
by providing in-deph overviews o hese naional demographic
rends; specific
breakdowns o 12 batleground saes in he Midwes/Rus Bel,
Souhwes, and
New Souh regions; and a concluding analysis o wha each pary mus o
do o
achieve vicory in 2016.
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9 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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Demography of the path
to 270 in 2016
Our analysis examines how a Democraic candidae rom he incumben
pary
and a GOP candidae rom he challenger pary migh are in erms o
demo-
graphic and geographic suppor in 2016. I ocuses on he elecoral
poenial o
he Obama coaliion using 2012 as a baseline, comparing ha wih he
poenial
suppor or a Republican challenger in relaion o he GOP’s 2012
perormance.
Tis much is clear: Despie demographic rends ha coninue o avor hem,
he
challenging poliical siuaion or he Democraspresiding over an uneven
economic recovery, ime-or-a-change senimen, ani-governmen populism,
and
sub-50 percen approval raings or Presiden Obamameans ha a hird
con-
secuive presidenial erm is hardly a sure hing. Meanwhile, he
Republican Pary
remains unpopular, wih very low avorabiliy raings, low parisan
idenificaion,
and a widespread sense ha i is oo exreme. No poenial candidae has
convinc-
ingly shown ha hey can appeal o voers ouside he Republican base,
meaning
hey will sruggle o bea he Democraic candidae despie he Democras’
clear
poliical vulnerabiliies. Te quesion hen becomes how, given he
curren polii-
cal environmen and srucure o voer inclinaions, each side can ake
advanage
o heir opporuniies and reach 270 EVs.
Our analysis begins wih he basic conours o he Obama coaliion on
he
naional level. I Democras are able o generae suppor and urnou among
vo-
ers in ha coaliion a close o 2012 levels, he 2016 Democraic
candidae will
likely be able o pu ogeher enough saes o reach 270 or more EVs.
Conversely,
Republicans could cerainly capure he presidency i hey are able o
make signifi-
can inroads ino he 2012 Obama coaliion or mobilize conservaive whie
voers
a unprecedened levels.
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10 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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Communities of color, white college graduates, and the white
working class
Te hear o he Obama coaliion is he minoriy voe. In 2012, Presiden
Obama
received 81 percen suppor rom communiies o color, a group ha made
up 27
percen o all voers. 13
Te quesion is, will he Democraic candidae be able oreplicae
ha perormance in 2016?
Consider firs he probable minoriy share o he voe in 2016. Census
daa under-
score jus how as his populaion is growing in he Unied Saes. From
2000 o
2014, he minoriy populaionhose who ideniy as Hispanic,
non-Hispanic
black, non-Hispanic Asian, non-Hispanic oher, and
muliracialincreased by 39
percen.14 Te Hispanic populaion alone grew by 57 percen, while
he whie
meaning non-Hispanic whiepopulaion grew by a mere 2 percen. Because
o
his dramaic difference in growh raes, communiies o color have
accouned or
91 percen o he counry’s populaion growh since 2000. Te overall
minoriy share o he populaion has also icked seadily upward, while
he whie share has
declined: Te 2014 minoriy share o he populaion was 38 percen, up
more
han 7 percenage poins since 2000. Ta is a rae o increase o
approximaely
hal a poin a year since 2000.
rend daa indicae we should expec more o he same in he uure.
Indeed,
projecions rom he Saes o Change projecconduced joinly by he
Cener
or American Progress, he American Enerprise Insiue, and he
Brookings
Insiuion15indicae ha, in 1980, minoriy groups comprised 16 percen o
eli-
gible voers, defined as ciizens age 18 and over, and make up 30
percen o eligible
voers oday. By he year 2060, minoriy groups should consiue a
majoriy, or 54
percen, o eligible voers. Tose increases represen an average rise o
abou hal a
poin a year in he share o minoriy eligible voers or 2 poins over he
course o a
our-year presidenial elecion cycle. Ta is exacly he projecion o he
Saes o
Change projec or he 2012–2016 period.
Recen rends indicae ha a 2-poin increase in he share o minoriy
eligible
voers ypically ranslaes ino a 2-poin increase in he minoriy
share o acual
voers. 16
We expec ha patern o coninue in he coming presidenial
elecion, 17
wih he 2-poin increase roughly disribued as 1 poin rom
Laino voers and 1
poin rom blacks, Asians, hose o oher races and mixed race
combined.
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Te evenual Democraic nominee is hereore likely o have significanly
more
voers rom communiies o color o work wih in 2016 han in 2012.
Bu can she
or he plausibly hope o replicae he 81 percen suppor among hese
minoriy
voers Presiden Obama received in his 2008 and 2012 elecion
vicories? While
Democras reain high levels o suppor among minoriiesespecially
among
blacks81 percen overall suppor may be difficul o replicae
wihou PresidenObama on he icke. I is worh recalling ha suppor or
Democraic presidenial
candidaes among minoriies was somewha lower in he firs wo
presidenial
elecions o he 2000s: a our-elecion low o 74 percen in 2004 and 77
percen
in 2000.18 Raher han assuming a coninuaion o 2012 levels, a
conservaive esi-
mae migh hereore pu he Democraic candidae’s minoriy suppor in 2016
a
he average o presidenial elecions held rom 2000 o 201278 percen.
Overall,
a reasonable expecaion or 2016 is ha he minoriy share o voers will
rise 2
poins rom 2012o around 29 percenand ha, conservaively, 78 percen
o
hese voers will suppor he Democraic candidae.
Whie voers are a differen sory; under any scenario, he
Democraic candidae
will do ar worse among his group. No all whie voers are he
same, however.
I is useul o break hem down beween he growing college-educaed
group,19
where Democras’ perormance has seadily improved, and he
rapidly declin-
ingboh in erms o overall populaion and voer sharenon-college
or
working-class group,20 where Democras have made litle
progress over he pas
wo decades.21
Te disribuion o voers beween hese wo groups is shifing rapidly:
Te
whie working-class share o voers declined by 19 percenage
poins beween he
198822 and 2012 presidenial elecions, while he college-educaed
whie share
increased by 6 poins. I his rend coninues, he share o whie
working-class
voers will decrease by 3 poins rom 2012 o 2016, wih a 1-poin
increase in
he share o whie college-educaed voers. According o our projecions
or his
reporwhich, or various echnical reasons,23 are quie
conservaivewhie
working-class voers will decline by a slighly smaller amoun,
2.3 poins, and
whie college-educaed voers will rise only racionally by 0.4
poins. Bu eiher
way, he underlying demographic composiion o he whie voe is
likely o shif in
he Democraic candidae’s avor in he 2016 elecion.
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Wih hese changes in mind, we can now ocus on how 2016 suppor
levels among
hese hree groups o voers migh ranslae ino a Democraic or
Republican
vicory given differen assumpions abou hese suppor levels.
Firs o all, i he
Democraic candidae receives similar suppor among hese groups in
2016 as
Presiden Obama did in 2012an 11-poin defici among whie college
gradu-
aes; a 22-poin defici among whie working-class voers; and a 64 poin
advan-age, 81 percen o 17 percen, among minoriy voers24she or he
will win he
popular voe easily by a 6-poin margin.
This simulated election result, and others presented in this
report, are based on
simple computations using a national three-category topline.
Detailed simulations
that take into account all racial groups, racial groups broken down
by age, and
cover all 50 states under a wide variety of turnout and support
assumptions will be
released by the States of Change project in late February of
2016.
I minoriy Democraic suppor declines o our more conservaive esimae o
78
percen, or a 58-poin ne Democraic advanage, she or he would sill
win he
popular voe by 4 poins, 51 percen o 47 percen. I, on op o ha
diminished
minoriy suppor, whie working-class suppor replicaes he sunning
30-poin
defici congressional Democras suffered in 2014 while whie
college-graduae
suppor remains seady, he Democraic candidae would sill win he
popular
voe, albei by a slender percenage poin. Ta is remarkable.
However, i whie
college-graduae suppor also replicaes is relaively poor 2014
perormance or
he Democrasa 16-poin deficiRepublicans would win he popular
voe,
also by a single poin.
In summary, given coninued srong perormance among minoriy
voerseven
wih some slippageDemocras can secure a hird erm by holding
Presiden
Obama’s 2012 whie college-graduae suppor, in which case, even a
landslide
deea o 2014 proporions among whie working-class voers could be
survived.
Conversely, i Republicans can cu significanly ino he Democras’ 2012
whie
college-graduae suppor, and hen replicae he landslide margins hey
achieved
among whie working-class voers in 2014, hey are likely o emerge
vicorious, even i he Democras hold heir 2000–2012 average o he
minoriy voe in he
2016 elecion.
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O course, i Republicans are able o drive he Democras’ share o he
minoriy
voe downno jus o is our-elecion average bu significanly below
ha aver-
ageheir chances o vicory will improve subsanially. Similarly, i
Democras
are able o sop or even reverse heir coninuing decline among whie
working-
class voers, hey will be hard o bea.
In he concluding secion o he paper, we discuss wha each pary mus
do, given
hese parameers, o maximize heir chances o winning he presidency in
2016.
Other demographics
wo oher key demographics or 2016 are young voers: members o
he
Millennial generaiondefined in his repor as hose born in he years
1981
hrough 2000and unmarried women. Te 18-o-29-year-old age group, all
o
which are Millennials, made up 15 percen o voers and voed 61
percen o 35 percen in Presiden Obama’s avor in 2012. Moreover, ha
15 percen figure
acually undersaed he level o Millennial influence in he 2012
elecion because
he 18-o-29-year-old group did no include he oldes Millennialshe 30-
and
31-year-olds who were born in 1981 and 1982. Once hey are figured
in, a reason-
able esimae is ha Millennials made up around 18 percen o he voe in
2012.
Ta figure should be significanly larger in 2016 as more Millennials
ener he
voing pool. Abou 52 million Millennials were ciizen-eligible
voers in 2012,
and ha number has been increasing a a rae o abou 4 million a year.
In 2016,
when Millennials make up he enire 18 o 35 age group, here
will be 68 million
Millennial eligible voers, accouning or 31 percen o all eligible
voershe
same size as he Baby Boomer percenage o eligible voers.
O course, relaively low youh urnou means ha he weigh o
Millennials
among acual voers in 2016 will be significanly less han he
generaion’s share
o eligible voers. I urnou paterns remain roughly he same in 2016 as
hey
were 2012, a reasonable guess is ha Millennials will make up
approximaely 25
percen o voers in he upcoming presidenial elecion.
I is also possible ha he Millennial generaion’s suppor or he
Democraic
candidae in 2016 will be less han i was in 2012. Economic pessimism
has aken
is poliical oll among his group, wih insiuional misrus high and
enhusiasm
or poliical acion low 25no surprising given how hard he poor
economy has
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hi young people and how sluggish economic improvemen has been or
hem
in paricular. Wages o young college and high school graduaes are
subsanially
lower oday han in 2000, and heir unemploymen and underemploymen
raes
remain above prerecession levels.26 Republicans will hope ha
his economic
pessimism and disappoined expecaions will lower youh urnou below is
2012
levels and/or drive youh suppor o he GOP.
On he oher hand, Pew Research Cener daa indicae ha Presiden
Obama’s
job approval among he Millennial generaion has generally been
srong his
yearhigher, acually, han hey were in 2011 prior o he previous
presiden-
ial elecion.27 And Gallup daa or Ocober and November o his
year show
ha Presiden Obama’s approval raing among 18-o-29-year-old
Millennials is
averaging very close o 60 percen.28 In addiion, Pew daa on
pary idenificaion
show Millennials holding seady since 2012 a abou a 16-poin advanage
or he
Democras on pary idenificaionsubsanially higher han any oher
genera-
ion.29 Given hese levels o suppor, i seems quie plausible ha
he Democraic candidae in 2016 could come very close o Presiden
Obama’s 61 percen share o
he Millennial voe in 2012.
Unmarried women were also srong Democraic supporers in 2012,
avoring
Presiden Obama by a 67 percen o 31 percen margin.30 Unmarried
women oday
make up almos hal, or 49 percen, o eligible women voersup rom 32
percen
in 1970.31 Teir curren share o he voer poolone-quarer o
eligible voersis
nearly he size o whie evangelical Proesans, he GOP’s larges base
group. 32
Tis burgeoning populaion o unmarried women can be expeced o coninue
o
lean heavily Democraic in is poliics. Survey daa consisenly show
his group
o be unusually populis on economic issues and generally opposed o
he GOP
agenda on oreign policy and social issues.33 Jus as wih
Millennials, however, he
economic siuaion has aken a heavy oll on his group, and economic
pessimism
is rampan. Almos hree-fifhs o unmarried women view saying in he
middle
class as harder han ever, wih many jobs no paying enough o live
on.34 And,
jus as wih he Millennials, ha could give Republicans an
opening o cu ino
Democras’ large margins rom 2012.
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Geography of the path
to 270 in 2016
Te discussion hus ar ocused on he naional popular voe. By and
large, he
naional popular voe is a good guide o predicing he acual winner o
he presi-
denial elecion. In ac, he winner o he popular voe ypically no only
wins he
Elecoral College voe bu also wins i by a wider margin han heir
popular voe
margin. Neverheless, he presidenial winner is, in he end, deermined
by who
can assemble a sae-by-sae coaliion o a leas 270 EVs. We now urn o
he
sae-by-sae coaliions needed o obain hese 270 voes.
Core Obama and GOP states
In 2012, Presiden Obama carried 26 saes, as well as he Disric o
Columbia,
or a oal o 332 EVs. Democras have carried 18 o hese saes plus
D.C.
he so-called Blue Wallor a oal o 242 EVs in every elecion since
1992.
O hese 18, he Democraic candidae in 2016 is almos cerain o carry 14
o
hem35Caliornia, Connecicu, Delaware, Hawaii, Illinois, Maine,
Maryland,
Massachusets, New Jersey, New York, Oregon, Rhode Island, Vermon,
and
Washingonplus D.C.or a oal o 186 EVs.
Tese are he Democras’ core saes, won easily by he pary’s nominee or
six
sraigh presidenial elecions and unlikely o be seriously conesed in
his elec-
ion eiher. Bu hese core saes are ar shor o an Elecoral College
majoriy, and
he Democraic candidae will sill need 84 more EVs rom some
combinaion o
saes o acually win he presidency.
Republicans carried 24 saesAlabama, Alaska, Arizona, Arkansas,
Georgia,
Idaho, Indiana, Kansas, Kenucky, Louisiana, Mississippi, Missouri,
Monana, Nebraska, Norh Carolina, Norh Dakoa, Oklahoma, Souh
Carolina, Souh
Dakoa, ennessee, exas, Uah, Wes Virginia, and Wyomingor a oal o
206
EVs in 2012. Tey are almos cerain36 o carry all o hese in
2016, excep Norh
Carolina, or a oal o 191 EVs. Tis is also ar shor o a majoriy,
meaning ha
Republicans will need 79 addiional EVs o capure he
presidency.
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Wih he excepion o New Hampshire, he addiional saes he
Democras and
he Republicans need can come rom hree broad geographic areas: he
Midwes/
Rus Bel, he Souhwes, and he New Souh. Presiden Obama carried all
o
hese saes in 2012 excep or Norh Carolina, which he won in
2008.
The Midwest/Rust Belt
Te Midwes/Rus Bel saes ha could be in play beween he Democraic
and
GOP nominees are:
• Iowa: 6 EVs • Michigan: 16 EVs • Minnesoa: 10 EVs • Ohio: 18
EVs
• Pennsylvania: 20 EVs • Wisconsin: 10 EVs
All ogeher, hese six Midwes/Rus Bel arge saes have 80 EVs.
When combined
wih Democraic core saes, winning all o hese saes would ge he
Democraic
candidae very close o he 270 EV hreshold. Carrying New Hampshire
and is 4
EVs in addiion o hese six saes would pu he Democraic candidae a
exacly
270, ensuring vicory even wihou any o he Souhwes or New Souh
saes.
Conversely, i Republicans can pick up several saes in his regionhey
have litle
chance o aking all o hemhey will need o rely less on EVs rom he
Souhwes
and New Souh. For example, i Republicans carried Ohio and
Pennsylvania, hese
saes would provide almos hal o he EVs hey need o add o heir core
saes. Te
res could be provided by Florida and any oher New Souh sae.
Te six Midwes/Rus Bel saes are all slow growing, wih an average
populaion
growh rae5.1 percen beween 2000 and 2014well below he naional
aver-
age o 13 percen. Consisen wih his slow overall growh, hese saes’
minoriy
populaion share has also grown relaively slowlya 5-poin shif over
he same
ime period compared o 7 poins or he naion as a whole. Tese saes are
whier han he naional averagean average o 83 percen versus 62 percen
or he
naionand heir race-ehnic composiion is shifing more slowly. Tis is
a more
avorable dynamic or he GOP han in he wo oher swing regions.
We now discuss hese saes in deail by descending order o
EVs.
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Pennsylvania: 20 electoral votes
Democraic presidenial candidaes have won Pennsylvania or six sraigh
elec-
ions going back o 1992. Presiden Obama won he sae by 5 poins in
2012, a
5-poin decline rom his margin o vicory in 2008.
Communiies o color made up 16 percen o Pennsylvania’s voe in 2012,
and
hey gave Presiden Obama 94 percen suppor.37 We esimae ha
minoriies will
make up approximaely 17 percen o he 2016 Pennsylvania voing
elecorae.
Tis increased minoriy voe share will likely help he Democraic
candidae.
Conversely, we expec a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, a
group who
avored Republican candidae and ormer Massachusets Gov. Mit Romney
by
a 54 percen o 44 percen margin in 2012. Tis figure, however,
conceals very differen paterns among whie working-class and whie
college-graduae voers.
Whie college graduaes spli abou evenly beween Presiden Obama
and Gov.
Romney, 49 percen o 50 percen, while whie working-class voers
srongly
suppored Gov. Romney by 56 percen o 42 percen. Te good news or
he
ALLEGHENY COUNTY
Source: See Figure 2 table.
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evenual Democraic nominee is ha he mix o whie voers is shifing
oward
college graduaes, wih his group acually growing by jus more han 1
percen-
age poin, while whie working-class voers should decline by 2.5
poins in 2016.
Te Democras’ Pennsylvania coaliion is a growing one ha links
communiies o
color wih he expanding par o he whie populaion, while he Republican
coali-
ion is rooed in a rapidly declining demographic group.
Looking jus a hese likely shifs in he voer pool, he Democraic
candidae
would be expeced o win by a wider margin in 2016. Her or his
growing coali-
ion should be larger, and he declining coaliion smaller, han in
2012. Bu
wo criical acors could undercu Democraic voe oals. Te firs is ha
he
growing groups ha suppored Presiden Obama in 2012 migh no suppor
he
Democraic candidae a he same level in 2016 and perhaps no urn ou
he
same raes. Tis drop in suppor and urnou could diminish he
Democraic
dividend rom demographic change.
ake communiies o color, or example. As noed, Presiden Obama
received 94
percen suppor rom minoriies in Pennsylvania in 2012. Ta unusually
high fig-
ure refleced Presiden Obama’s nearly unanimous suppor among
Pennsylvania’s
black voers and he ac ha blacks made up wo-hirds o
Pennsylvania’s minor-
iy voers compared o abou hal o minoriy voers naionwide. Some alloff
in
black suppor or Democras is cerainly possible wih Presiden
Obama no on
he ballo. Hispanic enhusiasm or Democras migh also flag, perhaps
exacer-
baed by impaience on he immigraion issue, which could bring
down heir 89
percen suppor rae rom 2012hough ani-immigran saemens by some
candidaes or he GOP nominaion probably lessens his possibiliy. Tese
acors
could erode he Democraic candidae’s overall minoriy suppor level in
2016.
Te second is ha Democras’ hold on whie college graduaes in he sae
could
be hreaened. Te move oward Democras is a recen rend among his
grow-
ing group and could be reversed by disappoined expecaions, such as
a lack o
economic mobiliy due o he relaively slow economic recovery.
Te Democras’ bigges problem is also perhaps he GOP’s bes opporuniy:
he
Democras’ coninuing weakness among whie working-class voers in he
sae. I hey swing urher away rom he Democraic candidae in 2016,
approaching
he 22-poin naionwide defici he Democras suffered in 2012
orworsehe
30-poin naionwide Democraic congressional defici in 2014, i could
hand he
Keysone sae o he GOP.38
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Breaking down suppor paterns geographically provides anoher lens on
he
Democraic candidae’s and he GOP’s chances in he sae. Tis angle
reveals
he same parisan growh and decline patern as demographic groups. In
a nu-
shell, he Democras’ presidenial voing srengh has been increasing in
grow-
ing areas o he sae, while Republicans have held heir own only in
declining
pars o he sae.
Te growing areas o Pennsylvania are mosly locaed in hree regions,
all o
which are in he easern par o he sae: he norheas, conaining he
Allenown
and Reading mero areas; he souheas, conaining he York, Lancaser,
and
Harrisburg mero areas; and he Philadelphia suburbs.39 Tese
regions are all
noable or having added large numbers o minoriy and whie
college-graduae
voers since 2000.40
Presiden Obama carried he Philadelphia suburbswhich grew by 8
percen
beween 2000 and 2014, wih he minoriy populaion up 68 percenby
10 poins in 2012, a 6-poin decline rom his margin in
2008.41 Over he long erm,
Democras have enjoyed an enormous 33-poin improvemen in heir margin
o
suppor in he Philadelphia suburbs since 1988.
Presiden Obama carried he norheas regionwhich also grew by 8
percen
beween 2000 and 2014, wih he minoriy populaion up 125
percenby
3 poins in 2012, a 6-poin decline rom 2008 bu a 16-poin shif oward
he
Democras since 1988. Te later includes Democraic swings o 25 poins
and 14
poins, respecively, in he relaively as-growing Reading and Allenown
mero
areas, which, since 2000, have grown by 11 percen and 13 percen,
respecively.
Te souheas region o he sae is he ases-growing region in
Pennsylvania
is populaion has increased by 13 percen since 2000, wih he minoriy
popula-
ion up 79 percen. Republicans won he region by 19 poins in 2012,
including
margins o vicory o 19 poins, 8 poins, and 21 poins, respecively, in
he hree
as-growing mero areas ha dominae he region: Lancaser, up 13 percen
in
overall populaion since 2000; Harrisburg, up 10 percen; and York,
up 16 per-
cen. Bu he overall Republican advanage in presidenial elecions in
he region
has decreased 10 poins since 2004, which has boosed he Democras’
effors in he sae. Tis ormerly rock-ribbed Republican region has
become increasingly
compeiive, shifing oward he Democras by 14 poins since 1988.
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ogeher, hese hree growing regionshe norheas, souheas, and
Philadelphia suburbsconribued 53 percen o he Pennsylvania voe.
Adding
in Philadelphia isel, where Democras dominae by lopsided margins71
poins
in 2012akes he oal o 65 percen o he saewide voe. Ta leaves only
35
percen o he voe in he res o Pennsylvania, which, while losing
populaion, has
been where he GOP has experienced some avorable rends.
Tough Democras did carry Allegheny Counydown 3 percen in
populaion
since 2000by our-enhs o a percenage poin, his area has shifed oward
he
Republicans by 17 poins since 1988. Te GOP carried he Pitsburgh
suburbs/
Erie regiondown 5 percen in populaion since 2000by 11 poins, and
he
conservaive norh and cenral region o Pennsylvaniadown 1 percen in
popu-
laion since 2000by 27 poins. Te GOP margins in hese regions are 16
poins
and 12 poins, respecivelybeter han hey were in 1988.
Tus, he Obama “coaliion o he ascendan”42 in Pennsylvania
included no only growing groups bu also increasing suppor in
growing regions. Given his, our
more years o populaion growh should srenghen he Democraic
nominee’s
posiion in 2016. Bu, as wih growing groups, Democraic voe oals
could be
undercu by significanly worse perormance in declining areas, as
well as under-
perormance in growing areas. Since he declining areas consiue only
35 percen
o he saewide voe, i is likely ha growing areas will prove decisive
in 2016.
O hese, he Philadelphia suburbs are he larges and make up 22 percen
o he
saewide voe, while he souheas is he one mos sympaheic o he GOP.
I
hese areas swing significanly oward he Republicans, ha could
deliver he sae
o he GOP.
Ulimaely, he Democraic candidae in Pennsylvania will benefi rom a
coaliion
based on growing groups and improved suppor in growing
regions. However,
wheher his coaliion can survive a siuaion where he economic
recovery has
been sluggishespecially as i has affeced wage growhand where
here may
be considerable ime-or-a-change senimen direced agains he
incumben pary
is an open quesion. Tese acors could give he GOP a decen sho a
winning
Pennsylvania and is 20 EVs in 2016.
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Ohio: 18 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won Ohio by 3 poins in 2012, 2 poins less han his
margin o
vicory in 2008. Communiies o color made up 17 percen o Ohio’s
voe in 2012
and voed 91 percen in avor o Presiden Obama. Minoriies should
accoun or
18 percen o 2016 Ohio presidenial voersan increase ha should help
he
Democraic nominee.
Te flip side o his is a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who
avored
ormer Gov. Romney by a 56 percen o 42 percen margin. Tis 56-42
figure,
however, obscures, as i does in many saes, differen paterns among
whie work- ing-class and whie college-graduae voers. Ohio’s whie
college graduaes spli 44
percen o 55 percen beween Presiden Obama and Gov. Romney, while
whie
working-class voers were more pro-GOP, supporing Obama a 41
percen and
Romney a 57 percen. Given hese paterns, he Democraic nominee in
2016
Counties
Source: See Figure 2 table.
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should benefi rom ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer pool ha
are likely
o produce a 2-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a
1-poin increase
in whie college graduaes. So, as wih Pennsylvaniahough no as
srongly
Presiden Obama’s Ohio coaliion is a growh coaliion ha links
communiies o
color wih he growing par o he whie populaion, while he GOP coaliion
is
rooed in he declining secor o whies.
Based only on hese likely shifs in he voer pool, he Democraic
candidae
would be expeced o win by a wider margin in 2016, as her or
his growing coali-
ion expands and he GOP declining coaliion conracs. Bu Democraic
suppor
levels wihin he growh coaliion migh no hold. As noed, Presiden
Obama
received 91 percen suppor rom minoriies in 2012. Ta figure was
driven by
his 96 percen suppor among Ohio’s black voers, who made up abou
hree-
quarers o he minoriy voe. In ligh o economic difficulies
experienced by he
black populaion in Ohio; Presiden Obama no being on he icke;
and he less
hisoric naure o he upcoming campaign, some alloff rom ha 96 percen
figure is cerainly possible. Tese acors could bring down he
Democraic candidae’s
overall suppor level rom minoriies in 2016.
Whie college graduaeshe oher par o he Obama growh
coaliioncould
presen a more serious opporuniy or a Republican win. Presiden
Obama’s
11-poin defici among his group in 2012 represened considerable
erosion rom
his perormance in 2008, when he nearly broke even among his group.
Significan
addiional movemen oward he GOP among his group could hand hem
vicory
given Presiden Obama’s narrow margin in 2012.
Finally, he group mos sympaheic o he GOP is he whie working class.
Gov.
Romney won hese voers in Ohio by 16 poins in 2012. Tere is ample
room
or a sharper swing oward he GOP in 2016 and, depending on he deph
o
ha swing, i could cerainly ip he sae o he Republicans, paricularly
i he
Democras’ base weakens.
In erms o geographic voing paterns, Ohio is growing paricularly
slowlyup
jus 2 percen since 2000. Bu here is quie a bi o variaion
wihin he sae,
wih some areas growing airly rapidly and ohers barely growing
a all or declin- ing. Mirroring rends in Pennsylvania, Democras
have been making heir bigges
gains in hese growh areas.
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Te Columbus mero area, which accouns or 16 percen o he saewide
voe,
is easily he ases growing area in he sae. Te populaion has grown by
20 per-
cen since 2000, and he minoriy populaion is up 62 percen. Compared
o oher
pars o Ohio, he Columbus mero area has seen he bigges decline in he
share
o whie working-class eligible voers, as well as he sharpes
increases in he shares
o whie college-graduae and minoriy voers. 43
Presiden Obama carried he area by 7 poins in 2012, a
3-poin increase in margin compared o 2008, despie sup-
por or him declining overall across Ohio.
In he very as-growing Columbus suburbs, which have grown by 29
percen
since 2000wih he minoriy populaion up 132 percenPresiden
Obama
had a defici o 19 poins in 2012. Bu in Franklin Counyhe cenral
couny o
he mero area ha conains he urban corePresiden Obama won handily by
23
poins. Tere has also been a 34-poin pro-Democraic presidenial voing
swing
in he Columbus mero area since 1988. Tis includes an incredible
44-poin
swing in Franklin Couny, and a 20-poin swing in he Columbus
suburbs.
Te second ases-growing mero area in he sae is he Cincinnai mero
area,
which accouns or 15 percen o he saewide voehough is growh
rae
is a ar more modes 6 percenwih he minoriy populaion up 33
percen
since 2000. Gov. Romney won he Cincinnai mero by 12 poins in 2012,
bu
Democras are doing subsanially beter in he area han hey did when
hen-Sen.
John Kerry los Ohio in 2004. Over he longer erm, here has
been a 17-poin
swing in presidenial voing oward he Democras since 1988.
Democras have also made subsanial progress in he norhwes region o
Ohio,44
which includes he oledo mero area, several smaller mero
areas, and many rural
counies ha are mosly declining in populaion. Democras almos broke
even
in he area in 2012, losing by only 3 poins, and here has been a
15-poin swing
oward Democras since 1988.
In 2012, Democras won Cuyahoga Couny, he cenral couny o he
Cleveland
mero area, by a wide margin40 poinsand broke even in he Cleveland
sub-
urbs, 49 percen o 49 percen. Overall, he Cleveland mero area, which
accouns
or 19 percen o he saewide voe, wen or Presiden Obama by 24 poinsa
15-poin Democraic swing relaive o 1988.
Te norheas region, which includes he Akron, Canon, and
Youngsown
mero areas, wen Democraic by 6 poins in 2012, while he souh region,
which
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includes he Dayon mero area and a grea many rural counies, suppored
Gov.
Romney by 11 poins. In he norheas, he shif oward he Democras since
1988
has been quie modesonly 3 poins.
Tese rends in he growing pars o his very slow-growh sae have
generally
srenghened Presiden Obama’s Ohio coaliion. Bu will hese rends hold
upin 2016? Some o hese growing areas, such as he Columbus suburbs
and he
Cincinnai mero area, are ar more Democra-riendly han hey used o be
bu
remain airly conservaive and are erile ground or a poenial GOP
resurgence.
And Republican gains in he growing par o Ohio would pu a grea
deal o pres-
sure on Democraic perormance in he Cleveland mero area and in he
norheas
where, as we have seen, Democras have made only weak gains
over ime.
Michigan: 16 electoral votes
Source: See Figure 2 table.
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Presiden Obama won Michigan airly easily by more han 9 poins in
2012, and
Democras have won he sae in six-sraigh presidenial elecions. Bu in
2004 and
2000, he GOP came wihin 3 poins and 5 poins, respecively,
demonsraing ha
he sae can be very compeiiveand could be so in he coming
elecion.
Communiies o color made up 19 percen o Michigan’s voe in 2012 and
voed89 percen or Presiden Obama. We esimae ha minoriies should
accoun
or 20 percen o he Michigan voe in 2016. Concomianly, here should be
a
1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored Gov. Romney by 52
percen
o 46 percen. Bu suppor paterns were significanly differen among
whie
working-class and whie college-graduae voers in 2012.
Michigan’s whie college graduaes spli abou evenly beween Presiden
Obama
and Gov. Romney, 49 percen o 51 percen, while whie working-class
voers
avored Romney by 53 percen o 45 percen. Ta resul suggess ha
Democras
may be modesly helped by ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer
pool ha should reduce he weigh o whie working-class voers by 2
poins and increase
ha o whie college-graduae voers by 1 poin in he 2016 elecion.
Te overall effec o likely shifs in he voer pool in 2016 should
hereore
avor he Democraic candidae. Te real issue or Democras will be
susaining
heir suppor levels among hese various groups. Presiden Obama
received 89
percen suppor rom minoriies in 2012 driven by 98 percen suppor
among
Michigan’s black voers, who made up 70 percen o he minoriy voe.
Falloff
rom ha 98 percen figure is plausible and could significanly weaken
Democras’
overall minoriy suppor in 2012. Presiden Obama’s 68 percen suppor
among
Lainoswhose weigh among Michigan voers is much smaller bu
growing
will also be imporan or Democras o mainain.
Whie college graduaes could provide a significan boos or he
GOP i hey
drif away rom a more even spli and back oward he 17-poin
Republican
advanage he GOP enjoyed among his group in 2004. Te Democras’
chie
challenge in Michigan may be mainaining heir whie working-class
suppor,
since he 2012 elecion showed signs o significan erosion among his
group;
Democras acually carried whie working-class voers in 2008. Te key
or he Democraic candidae will be damage minimizaionavoiding a
massive pro-
Republican shif among his group.
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In erms o geographic voing paterns, Michigan is he slowes growing
sae in
he counry. In ac, i was he only sae wih negaive populaion growh,
acually
declining by hree-enhs o a percenage poin beween 2000 and 2014. Bu
pars
o Michigan did grow. Te wo ases-growing regions, he Deroi suburbs
and
he souhwes,45 have each grown by 6 percen since 2000, wih
communiies o
color providing he overwhelming proporion o he growh in boh
areas.
Te Deroi suburbs are also noable or showing he sharpes rends in
he
changes affecing all Michigan regions: declining shares o whie
working-class
voers and increasing shares o minoriy and whie
college-graduae voers. Te
later voers have been rending excepionally sharply oward Democras
in his
region. Presiden Obama carried he Deroi suburbs by 51 percen o 48
percen
in 2012, down rom 54 percen o 45 percen in 2008. Bu ha 3-poin
margin was
6 poins beter han hen-Sen. Kerry did in 2004.
Looking back o 1988, Democras have made an impressive 26-poin
improve- men in heir presidenial voe margin in he Deroi suburbs.
Tis is equal o heir
gain over he same ime period in Wayne Couny, he urban core o he
Deroi
mero area. Tese improvemens have ranslaed ino overwhelming
dominance
o he Deroi mero area as whole60 percen Democraic o 40 percen
Republican which consiues 44 percen o he saewide voe.
Te souhwes region, which is generally considered he mos conservaive
in
Michigan, has also seen significan movemen oward he Democras over
ime.
Ten-Sen. Kerry los he souhwes by 16 poins in 2004, so Presiden
Obama’s
8-poin defici in he region in 2012 acually represened an 8-poin
swing oward
he Democras. During he enire 1988 o 2012 period, Democras improved
heir
posiion in he region by 18 poins. Te souhwes region conribues jus
more
han one-fifh o he saewide voe.
Te so-called universiy corridor conribues anoher one-fifh o he
saewide
voe. Te corridor is a cluser o counies o he immediae wes and
souh o he
Deroi mero area ha includes he Lansing and Ann Arbor mero areas,
home,
respecively, o Michigan Sae Universiy and he Universiy o Michigan.
I is also
he oher region o he sae where some growh is aking place,
paricularly in he relaively as-growing Ann Arbor mero area, which
has grown 11 percen since
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2000he second-ases mero-area growh rae in he sae. In 2012,
Presiden
Obama carried he universiy corridor by a very srong 58 percen o 40
percen
margin, an 8-poin improvemen over hen-Sen. Kerry’s 2004
perormance.
Looking back o 1988, here has been a 17-poin pro-Democraic
presidenial vo-
ing swing in his region.
Indeed, only in he lighly populaed cenral region45 percen o 54
percen
in 2012and even more lighly populaed Upper Peninsula region48
percen
o 51 percen in 2012have Democraic gains since 1988 been modes or
even
negaive. In he cenral region, he gain has been jus 6 poins, while
he GOP
has managed o acually gain 7 poins in he Upper Peninsula. Bu he
later
region is only 3 percen o he saewide voe, and is populaion is down
3
percen since 2000.
Tus, as in Ohio, Presiden Obama’s Michigan coaliion has been
srenghened by
rends in he growing pars o a very slow-growh saea sae where he
overall populaion has acually declined. Some o hese Democraic gains
may be vulner-
able, such asor examplein he souhwes, which is ar more sympaheic
o
he GOP han he Deroi suburbs or universiy corridor. And he later
areas oo
could provide opporuniies or he Republicans i ime-or-a-change
senimen
runs deep come elecion ime. I is also possible ha he sluggish
recovery, wih
minimal income gains or workers hus ar, could provide an opening or
he GOP
in a sae ha should oherwise be an easy hold or he Democras.
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Minnesota: 10 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won Minnesoa wih an 8-poin margin in 2012, and
Democras
have acually won he sae in 10 sraigh presidenial elecions. Te las
ime he
Democras los in a presidenial elecion in Minnesoa was in 1972, when
Richard
Nixon wiped ou George McGovern. Te Democras’ margins, however,
were
small in 2004 and 20003 poins and 2 poins, respecivelyso he sae
could
possibly be in play come 2016 despie he Democras’ curren winning
sreak.
Communiies o color made up 9 percen o Minnesoa’s voe in 2012 and
voed 78 percen in avor o Presiden Obama. We esimae ha minoriies
will increase
o 11 percen o he 2016 Minnesoa voing elecorae.
Counties
Source: See Figure 2 table.
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We esimae a 1.4-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who
avored Presiden
Obama by 50 percen o 47 percen. Among whies, voing paterns
among
whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers were
modesly differen.
Minnesoa’s whie working-class voers suppored Presiden Obama bu
only
very narrowly49 percen o 48 percenwhile he sae’s whie college
gradu-
aes gave him a more robus 5-poin margin a 52 percen o 47 percen.
Tameans he Democraic candidae should derive some benefi rom ongoing
shifs
in he declining whie voer pool ha are likely o produce more han a
2-poin
decrease in whie working-class voers and a 0.6 percenage poin
increase in
whie college-graduae voers in 2016. Te Obama Minnesoa
coaliion is he
classic Democraic growh coaliion ha links communiies o color wih
he
growing par o he whie populaionbu wih unusually high whie
suppor
among working-class whies.
Tese likely shifs in he voer pool would, all else equal, produce a
larger vic-
ory margin or he Democraic nominee in 2016 han in 2012. And
Democras’ minoriy suppor, in conras o oher swing saes, was no so
high in 2012 ha he
pary’s candidae should have much difficuly replicaing or surpassing
ha level
in 2016. Bu mainaining a solid advanage among whie college graduaes
could
be challenging or Democras, as could keeping heir rough pariy
wih he GOP
among whie working-class voers. Te later could be especially erile
ground or
Republicans given rising populis senimen during he sluggish
economic recov-
ery. While he Democraic nominee can afford some slippage among his
group,
he sae could slip away rom he Democras i here is a powerul break
oward he
GOP, given how large hese voers sill weigh in Minnesoa’s
elecorae.
urning o geographic voing paterns, Minnesoa is a relaively
slow-growh
sae11 percen growh since 2000 compared o he naional average o
13
percenbu is growing aser han very slow-growh saes such as
Ohio,
Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Tis growh is driven almos enirely by
expansion
in he Minneapolis mero area, which provides 62 percen o he Minnesoa
voe.
Te Minneapolis mero area grew by 15 percen beween 2000 and 2014,
wih he
minoriy populaion up by 73 percen and accouning or 77 percen o
popula-
ion growh. Te nex larges mero area in Minnesoa is he very
slow-growing
Duluh mero area, which grew by 2 percen and only provides 5 percen
o he saewide voe. Aside rom Minneapolis and Duluh, he Rocheser and
S. Cloud
mero areas are airly as growingup 17 percen and 15 percen,
respecively
bu provide only 3 percen each o Minnesoa’s voe.
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Te real batle or Minnesoa will be ough in he Minneapolis mero area,
which
gave Presiden Obama a 13-poin margin in 20125 poins larger han
he
margin he mero gave hen-Sen. Kerry in 2004 in his very modes 3-poin
vicory.
Demographically, he area is changing in ways ha should benefi he
Democraic
candidaegrowh here is primarily ueled by communiies o colorbu
he
GOP will vigorously ry o reduce heir defici by running up heir
suppor in moreGOP-riendly ouer suburban counies such as Anoka,
Scot, and Washingon.
All in all, however, compared o oher compeiive Midwes/Rus Bel
saes,
Minnesoa should be a airly easy hold or he evenual Democraic
nominee.
Wisconsin: 10 electoral votes
Minorities 87% 12% 1
White college graduates 50% 49% 1 White working class 48% 50%
-2
Source: See Figure 2 table.
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Presiden Obama won Wisconsin by a 7-poin margin in 2012, down rom
14
poins in 2008, and Democras have won he sae seven sraigh imes
going
back o 1988. Democras’ vicories in 2000 and 2004 were razor
hin, how-
ever0.2 poins and 0.4 poins respecivelyso he sae is cerainly
capable o
being compeiive.
Communiies o color made up 10 percen o Wisconsin’s voe in 2012
and
voed 87 percen or Presiden Obama. We expec minoriies o be 11
percen
o 2016 Wisconsin voers. Ta implies a 1-poin drop in he whie share
o
voers, who avored Gov. Romney, albei by a very hin 50 percen
o 49 per-
cen margin. Whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers
differed
in Wisconsin, hough no as much as in some oher saes. Wisconsin’s
whie
working-class voers suppored Gov. Romney 50 percen o 48
percen, while
he sae’s whie college graduaes slighly avored Presiden Obama 50
percen
o 49 percen. Te Democraic candidae should hereore benefi
modesly
rom ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer pool, which are likely
o pro- duce a 2.4-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a
1.4-poin increase
in whie college graduaes in 2016.
Tese likely shifs in he composiion o he voer pool should benefi
he
Democraic nominee in 2016. Bu she or he will have o avoid crippling
losses in
voer suppor among key groups. Democras’ minoriy suppor needs
o remain
very high, and here is cerainly poenial or alloff in heir 98
percen suppor
among black voers or 74 percen suppor rom Hispanicshe prime driver
o
Wisconsin’s increasing minoriy populaion.
Mainaining Democras’ modes advanage among whie college graduaes
may
be more difficul. Te 2012 suppor levels already represen
considerable atriion
rom 2008 suppor levels. I addiional erosion among whie college
graduaes
occurs or he Democras, he Republican nominee will be in a srong
posiion o
capialize on a poenial surge in whie working-class suppor. Presiden
George
W. Bush had an 8-poin advanage among his later group in 2004;
i he 2016
Republican nominee is able o increase ha margin, he GOP could have
a real
chance in he sae.
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In erms o geographic voing paterns, Wisconsin, like oher saes in
he
Midwes/Rus Bel, is a slow-growh sae7 percen compared o he
naional
average o 13 percenbu is growing aser han very slow-growh saes
such
as Ohio, Pennsylvania, and Michigan. Te ases-growing mero area is
he
Madison mero area, he second larges in he sae, which has grown 19
percen
in he period rom 2000 o 2014. Te minoriy populaion in his area
hasgrown by 85 percen, accouning or 51 percen o growh. Madison
conribues
11 percen o he saewide voe and has shifed o he Democras in
presidenial
voing by 23 poins since 1988. Presiden Obama carried Madison
by a sunning
40 poins in 2012.
Te Milwaukee mero area, he larges in he sae, accouns or 28 percen o
he
saewide voe. In conras o Madison, i is relaively slow growing, up
only 5
percen since 2000. Te minoriy populaion in he area grew by 32
percen and
accouned or 171 percen o populaion growhin oher words, wihou
minor-
iy growh, he Milwaukee mero area would have experienced significan
popula- ion decline. Te area gave Presiden Obama a 5-poin margin in
2012, acually 2
poins less han Michael Dukakis’ margin in 1988.
Combined, Milwaukee and Madison alone accoun or 40 percen o he
saewide
voe. Wih no oher mero area accouning or more han 5 percen o
he voe, he
cones or Wisconsin will cener on hese wo mero areas. In paricular,
he GOP
will be seeking o move he Milwaukee mero area back oward he
break-even
poinwhere Presiden Bush was in 2004which would pu he
Democraic
hold on he sae in real danger. Republicans will also pu pressure on
Democraic
perormance in smaller mero areas, such as Green Bay, 5 percen o he
saewide
voe; Appleon, 4 percen; Racine, 3 percen; Janesville, 3
percen; Eau Claire, 3
percen; and Oshkosh, 3 percen; where Presiden Obama’s win vicories
in 2008
and in 2012 marked srong gains over hen-Sen. Kerry’s perormance in
2004.
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Iowa: 6 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won Iowa by a 6-poin margin in 2012, and Democras
have
won he sae in six o he las seven presidenial elecions. Te wo
presidenial
elecions immediaely preceding 2008, however, eaured a GOP win by
0.7 poins
in 2004, as well as a very narrow GOP loss by 0.3 poins in 2000. Te
recen pas
indicaes ha Iowa may well be in play in 2016.
Communiies o color made up 6 percen o Iowa’s voe in 2012 and voed
88
percen or Presiden Obama. We projec ha minoriies should accoun or
7
percen o he 2016 Iowa voing elecorae.
We projec a 1-poin drop in he whie share o voers, who avored
Presiden
Obama by 50 percen o 49 percen in 2012. Among whies, voing paterns
among whie working-class and whie college-graduae voers differed bu
no
in he way ypical o mos saes. Iowa’s whie working-class voers
suppored
Presiden Obama by 51 percen o 47 percen, while he sae’s whie
college-grad-
uae voers suppored Gov. Romney by 52 percen o 47 percen. Based on
hese
Counties
Minorities 88% 10% 1
Source: See Figure 2 table.
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daa, he GOP should acually be slighly helped by ongoing shifs in he
declining
whie voer pool ha are likely o produce a 2-poin decrease in
whie working-
class voers and a 1-poin increase in whie college graduaes in
2016.
Likely shifs in he composiion o he Iowa voer pool in 2016 hereore
do no
clearly avor he Democras as much as in oher similar saes. Ta pus
exraemphasis on he Democraic nominee’s key ask: avoiding large
losses in voer
suppor among key groups. Te Democraic nominee’s minoriy suppor
needs
o remain high and avoiding urher slippage among whie college
graduaesas
Democras experienced in 2012will be crucial.
Bu he Democraic nominee’s mos difficul challengeand he GOP’s
grea
opporuniyis he possibiliy o a sharp drop in he Democras’ solid
whie
working-class suppor, which was clearly cenral o heir 2012
vicory. I he
Democras’ whie working-class suppor is ar souh o he break-even
poin, and i
he Democraic candidae ails o energize he small bu significan
minoriy voe, he GOP has a serious chance o aking he sae.
In erms o geographic voing paterns, Iowa is a slow-growh sae, wih 6
percen
populaion growh since 2000 compared o he naional average o 13
percen.
By ar he ases-growing mero area is Des Moines, up 27 percen over
he
same ime period. Te minoriy populaion is up 97 percen and accouns
or 41
percen o he area’s growh. I is also Iowa’s larges mero area,
conribuing 19
percen o he saewide voe. Presiden Obama carried Des Moines by 8
poins in
2012, which was 8 poins beter han hen-Sen. Kerry in 2004.
Te second larges mero area is Cedar Rapids, which is also growing
airly
as. Te populaion is up 11 percen since 2000, and he minoriy
populaion
has grown by 93 percen. Te area accouns or 9 percen o he saewide
voe.
Presiden Obama carried he Cedar Rapids area by 15 poins in 2012, 7
poins
beter han hen-Sen. Kerry in 2004.
Afer ha, here are a series o smaller mero areas ha each
accoun or 3 percen
o 6 percen o he saewide voe. From larges o smalles, hese are:
Davenpor,
Iowa Ciy, Waerloo, Council Bluffs, Sioux Ciy, Dubuque, and Ames.
ogeher, hey conribue less han one-hird, or 29 percen, o Iowa’s voe.
Mos o hese
mero areas are in he eas or cenral pars o he sae and gave Presiden
Obama
srong margins ranging rom 14 poins in Davenpor, Ames, and Waerloo o
31
poins in he as-growing Iowa Ciy, which has grown by 25 percen since
2000.
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Te wo mero areas a he wesern end o he sae, Sioux Ciy and Council
Bluffs,
were quie differen: Sioux Ciy avored Presiden Obama by jus 1
poin and
Council Bluffs avored Gov. Romney by 8 poins.
Iowa’s voe lacks he clear geographic ulcrums ha characerize he oher
com-
peiive Midwesern and Rus Bel saes. Ta said, he nine mero areas
men-ioned above accoun or 57 percen o he saewide voe, so he 2016
presidenial
cones will likely be concenraed in hese areas. I he GOP can
significanly roll
back Democraic gains in hese areas, paricularly in cenral and
easern Iowa,
Republicans will have a serious chance o aking he sae in
2016.
The six Midwest swing states are all marked by slow growth and a
relatively small
and slow-growing percentage of voters from communities of color.
These states are
projected to average around 14 percent minority voters in 2016,
ranging from a low
of 7 percent in Iowa to a high of 20 percent in Michigan. But the
Democrats’ relatively
small base of minority voters is supplemented by fairly strong
support among these
states’ growing white college-graduate populations, who gave
President Obama an
average deficit of only 2 points in 2012, whereas the national
deficit among white
college graduates was 11 points. This coalition of the ascendant
has produced
increased Democratic support in growing areas of these
states.
Moreover, the weight of that coalition should be larger in these
states in 2016 than
in 2012, with an average 2-point increase in the percent of white
college graduates
and minorities among voters, as well as a 2-point decline in the
percent of white
working-class voters. In addition, the Democratic nominee should
benefit from
the fact that Midwestern and Rust Belt white working-class voters
tend to be more
supportive of Democrats than in other competitive states, averaging
only a 6-point
Democratic deficit in 2012.
Time-for-a-change sentiment, rising populist feelings, and the
sluggish economic
recovery, however, could tax that relative friendliness among the
white working class
toward the Democrats and could also reduce enthusiasm for the
Democratic candi-
date among the coalition of the ascendant. That could give
Republicans an opening in these states, especially in Ohio and
Pennsylvania, where pro-GOP leanings are
Midwest/Rust Belt summary
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36 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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strongest among the white working class. Of the two, Ohio is the
best target for
the GOP since the state was closer in 2012, and the state’s white
college graduates
gave Republicans more support in that election than in any of the
other competitive
Midwestern/Rust Belt states.
If the Democrats do manage to lose only Ohio among the competitive
Midwestern/ Rust Belt states, that would add 62 EVs to their core
support of 186 for a total of 248
EVs, leaving them only 22 short of victory. Twenty of these EVs
could be provided by
the three Southwestern states President Obama carried in 2008 and
2012.
Carrying Ohio is central to GOP prospects in 2016 because it is
their best chance of
stopping a Democratic sweep of the swing Midwestern/Rust Belt
states. And if the
GOP carried Ohio and Pennsylvania in addition to their core
support, that would
leave them only 41 EVs short of victory. Those 41 EVs could be
provided by a com-
bination of Florida and any other New South state or by Florida,
Colorado, and any
other Southwestern state.
The swing Southwestern states thus loom large in both parties’
calculations. We now
turn to an analysis of these states.
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The Southwest
Te Souhwes includes hree saes ha could be in play beween he
Democraic
and he GOP nominees:
• New Mexico: 5 EVs
Te Democraic campaign does no appear likely o seriously cones
Monana
and is 3 EVseven hough Sen. John McCain won i by only 2 poins in
2008.
Nor is Arizona, wih is 11 EVs, likely o be a rue cones, hough he
rapid rae o
demographic change in he sae will likely pu i in play by he 2020’s.
ogeher,
hese hree Souhwesern arge saes have 20 EVs and could, or
example,
more han make up or a Democraic loss o Ohio and is 18 EVs. I added
o he
Democras’ core saes and he oher five compeiive Midwesern/Rus Bel
saes carried by Presiden Obama in 2008 and 2012, hese saes would
leave he
Democraic candidae only wo EVs shor o vicory.
Te GOP sraegy will ocus on adding a leas one Souhwesern swing
sae
o he saes hey are able o pick off in he Midwes/Rus Bel, seting he
pary
up o claim vicory hrough success in he New Souh. For example, i he
GOP
carries Ohio and any Souhwesern sae, hey can win he presidency by
car-
rying he hree swing New Souh saes: Florida, Norh Carolina, and
Virginia.
Alernaively, i he GOP carries Ohio and Pennsylvania and hen
Colorado and
Nevada, simply aking Florida would be enough o give hem an elecoral
vicory.
Tese hree Souhwesern saes are all as growing relaive o he
naional aver-
age. New Mexico’s 15 percen growh rae and Colorado’s 23 percen
growh rae
since 2000, however, are dwared by Nevada’s 42 percen over he same
period,
easily making i he ases-growing sae in he counry. Nevada’s growh
in
minoriy populaion sharea 14-poin shif since 2000was also ar
greaer
han he 6-poin increase in Colorado and New Mexico. Nevada’s overall
minoriy
populaion share o 49 percen, however, sill lags ar behind ha o New
Mexico
a 61 percen, hough i is considerably higher han Colorado’s a 31
percen.
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Despie hese differences, hese Souhwesern saes presen a demographic
profile
and growh dynamic ha are more avorable overall or he Democraic
nominee
han he Midwes and Rus Bel swing region, where he heavily whie
populaions
and slow pace o demographic change are relaively advanageous or he
GOP.
We now provide a deailed discussion o hese saes in descending
order o EVs.
Colorado: 9 electoral votes
Presiden Obama won he sae by 5 poins in 2012, down rom a 9-poin
advan-
age in 2008.
Communiies o color made up 18 percen o Colorado’s voe in 2008 and
voed
79 percen or Presiden Obama. Our esimae is ha minoriies, driven by
he burgeoning Hispanic populaion, will accoun or abou 20
percen o he 2016
Colorado voing elecorae. Tis means a 2-poin drop in he whie share o
vo-
ers, who avored Gov. Romney by 52 percen o 46 percen in 2012.
Unlike oher
saes considered here, he suppor paterns among whie working-class
and whie
EAST
Source: See Figure 2 table.
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39 Center for American Progress | The Path to 270 in
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college-graduae voers are very close. Colorado’s whie college
graduaes avored
Gov. Romney by 51 percen o 46 percen, while whie working-class
voers sup-
pored Romney by slighly more a 53 percen o 45 percen.
Given hese paterns, he Democraic candidae should benefi, bu only
slighly,
rom ongoing shifs in he declining whie voer pool ha are likely o
produce a2.3-poin decrease in whie working-class voers and a
0.3-poin increase in whie
college graduaes in 2016.
Demographic shifs in voer share, paricularly he rise o minoriies,
should
hereore pu he Democraic nominee in a sronger posiion in Colorado in
2016,
as her or his growing coaliion expands and he GOP nominee’s
declining coali-
ion conracs. Bu here are challenges or he Democraic nominee.
Presiden
Obama received 79 percen suppor rom minoriies in 2012 driven by 75
percen
suppor among Colorado’s Hispanic voers, who made up almos wo-hirds
o he
sae’s minoriy voe. Clearly, i Hispanic suppor or he Democraic
nominee alls significanly rom is relaively high 2012 level, ha
would be a boon or he GOP.
Whie college graduaes, he oher par o he Democraic growh
coaliion,
could be criical in 2016 as well. Te 2012 Democraic defici among
his group
is a considerable alloff rom Presiden Obama’s solid advanage in
2008. Te
GOP candidae will seek o capialize on his rend and shif his group
urher
oward he GOP.
Ten here is he group mos sympaheic o he GOP: he whie working
class.
Tere is cerainly room or a sharper swing owards he Republicans in
2016
given rising populis and ime-or-a-change senimen. I he GOP
advanage
among hese voers increases o, and perhaps surpasses, he levels
enjoyed by
Sen. McCain in 2008, he Republican nominee would have a serious
chance o
aking he sae.
As previously menioned, Colorado is a as-growing sae, up 23
percen in
populaion since 2000. And where Colorado has been growing, Democras
have
generally been improving heir posiionone o he keys o Presiden
Obama’s
vicories in 2008 and 2012.
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Consider firs he Denver mero area, ar and away he larges mero area
in he
sae and accouning or hal he saewide voe. Te Denver mero area is
expe-
riencing he mos rapid demographic change in he sae, wih he share o
whie
working-class voers declining sharply, while he numbers o
whie college-gradu-
ae and minoriy voers are surging. o examine rends in he Denver mero
area,
i is useul o divide i ino hree pars: Denver couny, he urban core;
he innersuburbs, which include Arapahoe, Jefferson, and Adams
counies; and he ouer